Key Takeaways PENN will report Q4 results on Feb. 26, with revenues seen up 5.1% y/y to $1.75B.PENN's retail demand and Hollywood Casino Joliet debut are expected to lift top-line growth.PENN aims for stronger digital margins as it shifts from ESPN Bet to the Score platform.PENN Entertainment, Inc. (PENN) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 26, before the opening bell.In the last reported quarter, its earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 120% and 0.5%, respecti ...

Core Insights - The legalization of sports betting in the U.S. has led to significant market growth, with over $150 billion wagered in 2025, but profitability remains a challenge for many operators [1] Company Summaries 1. DraftKings - DraftKings is the closest to achieving profitability in the digital sports betting space, posting $0.16 in annual EPS in 2025, marking its first year of profitability after five years of losses [12] - Revenue reached $5.46 billion, with quarterly earnings growth of 185% year-over-year, indicating strong operational performance [12] - The stock has seen a 26% decline over the past year, but analysts project a fair value of $45, suggesting a 47% upside if the company can maintain its profitability [13][14] 2. Flutter Entertainment - Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, is the largest operator in the group with a market cap of $30.6 billion and revenue of $15.4 billion [10] - The company reported $3.82 in annual EPS for 2025, down 37% from the previous year, but remains profitable [10] - Analysts see a fair value of $285 for the stock, implying a 63% upside, supported by its global diversification and established profitability [11] 3. Caesars Entertainment - Caesars operates over 50 casino properties and runs Caesars Sportsbook, but reported an annual EPS of -$0.95 in 2025, despite an improvement from -$1.26 in 2024 [7] - The stock has dropped 35% over the past year, trading at $22.37, with analysts maintaining a target of $32, indicating a potential 43% upside if the company can stabilize its digital losses [8] 4. MGM Resorts - MGM Resorts is the only company on the list with a positive one-year performance, up 3.7%, generating $17.3 billion in revenue [5] - The profit margin is low at 0.4%, and earnings fell 70% year-over-year in Q3 2025, indicating operational stress [6] - The stock trades near its 200-day moving average at $34.10, with a modest upside to the $42 analyst target [6] 5. Penn Entertainment - Penn Entertainment reported an annual loss of -$0.59 in 2025, an improvement from -$1.62 in 2024, but remains unprofitable [3] - The stock trades at 0.3x sales and below book value, suggesting market skepticism regarding its ESPN partnership [4] - Analysts have set a target of $19 for the stock, implying a 33% upside, but the company needs to demonstrate its ability to convert ESPN's reach into profitable customer acquisition [4]

Group 1 - Major League Baseball has announced three-year media rights deals with ESPN, NBCUniversal, and Netflix for the 2026-2028 seasons [1] - The announcement follows the 2025 MLB World Series, which saw an average of over 51 million viewers globally for the LA Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays matchup [1] - Warner Bros. Discovery is currently open for bids, with a deadline approaching for interested buyers [2] Group 2 - Netflix's stock has experienced a price-target cut due to growing concerns in the market [4] - Disney is increasing its content spending as it aims for a turnaround in earnings by 2026 [4] - Warner Bros. Discovery's stock has risen following reports of a potential bid from Netflix for the studio [4]

Group 1 - Disney reported earnings per share of $1.11 on revenue of $22.5 billion for its fiscal year, indicating a mixed performance as it transitions from a legacy media company to a streaming-focused model [1] - The stock of Disney experienced a decline in early trading following the earnings report, reflecting investor concerns about its ongoing transformation and competitive pressures [1] - Netflix has opened its first major in-person amusement attraction, Netflix House, in a Philadelphia suburb, signaling its expansion into new media experiences and potential competition with Disney [2] Group 2 - DraftKings has seen a rise in stock value as Disney struggles with its ESPN Bet initiative, highlighting the competitive dynamics in the sports betting and media landscape [4] - Disney has increased its streaming prices, which may impact subscriber growth and retention amid rising competition from platforms like Netflix [4] - The stock market is observing potential rebounds and shifts, with companies like Palantir and Caterpillar also in focus, indicating broader market trends that could affect Disney and its peers [4]

Core Insights - PENN Entertainment reported Q3 CY2025 revenue of $1.72 billion, a 4.8% year-on-year increase, but fell short of analyst expectations of $1.73 billion, resulting in a 0.6% miss [5] - The company experienced a non-GAAP loss of $0.22 per share, significantly below the consensus estimate of a loss of $0.03 [5] - Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $194.9 million, missing analyst expectations of $385.2 million, reflecting an 11.3% margin and a 49.4% miss [5] Management Commentary - Management attributed the underperformance to challenges in digital operations, particularly lower-than-expected online sports betting volumes and customer-friendly game outcomes [3] - The early termination of the ESPN partnership was noted, with management stating it was necessary to realign interactive focus and enhance connectivity across the ecosystem [3][4] - The transition to a unified digital brand strategy is expected to improve efficiency and profitability, with a focus on cross-selling between digital and land-based assets [3] Strategic Changes - PENN announced the early conclusion of its ESPN marketing agreement due to insufficient competitive scale for ESPN Bet, reallocating resources to higher-return segments [6] - The company is shifting its digital focus to theScore Bet, leveraging its established presence in Canada and North America, with a seamless customer transition planned [6] - The North American iCasino business achieved a record quarterly gaming revenue, with a 40% year-over-year improvement attributed to increased cross-sell from sports betting [6] Operational Insights - The core regional casino business showed stable demand, particularly in markets without new competition, with new property openings contributing to customer reactivation [7] - Increased marketing and labor expenses in competitive markets led to temporary margin compression, but management expects these pressures to normalize as promotional activities stabilize [7]

Core Insights - ESPN has terminated its partnership with PENN Entertainment and has signed a new deal with DraftKings, making it the exclusive Official Sportsbook and Odds Provider of ESPN [1][7] - This shift highlights the competitive landscape of the U.S. sports betting market, particularly in light of recent scandals involving the NBA [3][5] Company Developments - The previous deal with PENN was valued at $1.5 billion over 10 years, with termination rights based on market share performance [4] - DraftKings' shares increased by nearly 1% following the announcement, while PENN's shares fell by over 6% [2][7] Market Context - The transition from PENN to DraftKings reflects the intense competition in the sports betting sector, especially as ESPN's betting platform struggled to compete with established players like DraftKings and FanDuel [3][4] - The change comes amid increased scrutiny of sports gambling practices, particularly following recent arrests related to NBA betting scandals [5][8]

Group 1 - Disney (DIS) and Penn Entertainment (PENN) will end their exclusive ESPN Bet deal early, creating uncertainty for the sports-betting site [1] - DraftKings stock rebounded after reaching a two-year low, with earnings expected to be reported after market close [1] - Penn Entertainment's stock rose as the company aims to conserve cash and refocus on its regional casinos [1] Group 2 - The Dow Jones index experienced an increase on Thursday, while DoorDash, Duolingo, and ELF Beauty saw significant declines following their earnings reports [2] - Robinhood reported a doubling of revenue and more than tripled earnings, marking a 282% year-to-date increase [4] - DraftKings and Flutter have been downgraded as prediction markets are impacting their profit margins [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The retail segment generated revenues of $1.4 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $465.8 million, resulting in segment-adjusted EBITDA margins of 32.8% [13] - The interactive segment reported revenues of $297.7 million, including a tax gross-up of $139.5 million, and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $76.6 million [14] - Total liquidity at the end of Q3 was $1.1 billion, including $660 million in cash and cash equivalents [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The North America iCasino business achieved its highest quarterly gaming revenue to date, with a nearly 40% year-over-year improvement driven by record cross-sell from OSB of 62% [6][7] - iCasino monthly active users (MAUs) increased by 79% during Q3, with new all-time records for MAUs, gross gaming revenue (GGR), and net gaming revenue (NGR) set in October [7] - The transition to theScore Bet is expected to enhance digital business efficiency and profitability, with a focus on high-margin markets [5][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted stable demand across gaming and non-gaming amenities, particularly in regions not impacted by new supply and increased competitor promotional activity [9] - The new Hollywood Casino in Joliet has driven impressive volumes and database growth, with a 42% increase in the active database since opening [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is realigning its interactive focus to prioritize digital assets in Canada and the Hollywood iCasino product, leveraging cross-sell opportunities across its ecosystem [4][5] - The early termination of the ESPN agreement will cease cash payments and marketing obligations, allowing for a more flexible marketing strategy focused on high-return markets [12][23] - The company plans to continue investing in growth capital while managing share repurchases as a key component of its capital allocation strategy [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate increased competition and promotional activity, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a strong value proposition [36] - The company is focused on achieving profitability in its digital segment by 2026, with a clear plan for retention and marketing strategies post-rebranding [8][43] - Management highlighted the importance of controlling the business's cost structure and marketing budget to enhance profitability moving forward [8][23] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $154.1 million of shares at an average price of $19.34 per share in Q3, with a total of $354 million repurchased as of November 5 [17] - The total CapEx for 2025 is now projected at $685 million, reflecting a shift of some project costs into the next year [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of ESPN exit on near-term and long-term profitability - Management discussed the strategic investments made in digital business and the importance of cross-selling to the retail segment, emphasizing the younger customer demographic acquired through digital channels [27][30] Question: Increased competition and promotional activity - Management acknowledged the impact of new competition and promotional activity on operations, noting that while there may be temporary increases in costs, the company remains committed to delivering best-in-market offerings [34][36] Question: Customer retention strategies post-rebranding - Management expressed confidence in retaining customers during the transition to theScore Bet, highlighting improvements in product quality and user experience [70][71] Question: Future growth opportunities in Canada - Management indicated that while there are limited retail property options in Canada, they remain open to opportunistic acquisitions that align with their omnichannel strategy [61] Question: Leverage targets for the business - Management stated that the optimal leverage level is below five times, with a focus on balancing share repurchases, growth investments, and debt reduction [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Retail segment generated revenues of $1.4 billion with adjusted EBITDAR of $465.8 million, resulting in segment adjusted EBITDAR margins of 32.8% [16] - The Interactive segment reported revenues of $297.7 million, including a tax gross-up of $139.5 million, and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $76.6 million [18] - Total liquidity at the end of 2025 was $1.1 billion, including $660 million in cash and cash equivalents [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The North America iCasino business achieved its highest quarterly gaming revenue to date, improving nearly 40% year over year, driven by record cross-sell from OSB of 62% [8] - The introduction of a standalone app and improved cross-sell from online sports betting led to a 79% increase in iCasino monthly active users (MAUs) during the third quarter [9] - The company expects fourth quarter 2025 revenues for the Retail segment to range from $1.41 billion to $1.43 billion, with adjusted EBITDAR ranging from $455 million to $475 million [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted stable demand across gaming and non-gaming amenities, particularly in markets not impacted by new supply and increased competitor promotional activity [11] - The new Hollywood Casino in Joliet has seen a 42% increase in its active database since opening, with over 50% of that growth coming from previously inactive customers [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is shifting its interactive focus to prioritize digital assets in Canada and Hollywood iCasino products, emphasizing cross-sell opportunities across its ecosystem [5] - The transition to the Score Bet brand is expected to optimize the digital business and operate more efficiently, including replacing fixed media spends with performance-based marketing [7] - The company plans to continue investing in growth capital while also focusing on share repurchases and deleveraging [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning to compete effectively in the evolving industry landscape, highlighting the importance of an omnichannel strategy [28] - The company aims to achieve breakeven or better in its interactive segment by 2026, with a focus on profitability and operational efficiency [10][96] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by increased competition and promotional activity but remains optimistic about the company's ability to maintain its market position [41][44] Other Important Information - The company announced an early termination of its exclusive online sports betting marketing agreement with ESPN, ceasing cash payments at the end of 2025 [15] - A total of $38.1 million will be paid to ESPN for marketing services incurred through December 1, with an additional $5 million for traditional media support [15] - The company has repurchased $354 million of shares as of November 5, with a new three-year $750 million share repurchase authorization commencing on January 1, 2026 [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the near-term and long-term profitability for interactive following the ESPN exit? - Management highlighted that the digital investments aimed to attract younger customers and cross-sell to retail businesses, with a focus on profitability moving forward [32][34][38] Question: How has increased competition and promotional activity impacted operations? - Management noted that while new competition has led to increased marketing costs, properties not impacted by new supply are performing well [41][44] Question: Can you clarify the expected marketing costs post-ESPN? - Management indicated that marketing costs will be significantly lower than those previously paid to ESPN, allowing for more targeted spending in high-return markets [48][49] Question: What are the strategies for customer retention during the rebranding to Score Bet? - Management expressed confidence in retaining customers due to improved user experience and a comprehensive marketing plan, emphasizing that the app experience will remain unchanged [84][90] Question: What is the company's leverage target moving forward? - Management stated that the optimal lease-adjusted leverage level is below five times, with a focus on deleveraging while remaining opportunistic in capital allocation [76][78]

Core Insights - Walt Disney Co. has signed a new multiyear deal with DraftKings Inc. to become the official betting site and odds provider for ESPN sports networks, replacing its previous partnership with Penn Entertainment Inc. [1] - The new agreement allows players to access DraftKings' sportsbook and daily fantasy contests through ESPN platforms starting December 1 [1] - Disney and Penn ended their 10-year $2 billion agreement due to a lack of significant market share capture in the sports betting sector [2] Group 1 - DraftKings' shares increased by 8.5% in early trading, while Penn's shares rose by 9.2%, indicating positive market reactions to the new deal [2] - The sports betting market, valued at $13.7 billion, is primarily dominated by DraftKings and FanDuel, with ESPN Bet struggling to gain traction [3][4] - ESPN Bet, which holds less than 3% of the mobile sports-betting market, will continue to be used for ESPN programming despite its low market share [4] Group 2 - Penn Entertainment will launch sports betting in the US under theScore Bet brand starting December 1, following the end of its partnership with Disney [4]