Key Takeaways Disney posted record fiscal 2025 segment income and turned streaming losses into $1.33B in operating profit.DIS projects double-digit EPS growth supported by price hikes and content investment.Apple sees up to 12% holiday-quarter growth as services and AI integration strengthen demand.Disney (DIS) and Apple (AAPL) represent two iconic American companies, trading as mega-cap stocks, that have expanded beyond their original domains into converging territory. Disney has evolved from pure entertai ...

过去十年的「掐线潮」下，如果说美国电视行业里还有什么是稳定的，那大概就是不稳定本身。 随着传统有线电视的衰落成为必然，流媒体之间的竞争也愈发惨烈，新玩家一个比一个有钱，一个比一个激进。说好听点叫重塑行业玩法，但在许多老电 视人看来，更像是把行业里维持了几十年的规矩全部推倒重来。 而在所有被这股浪潮重塑的资产里，体育内容无疑是最受影响、也最敏感的那一块。 玩体育不一定能赢，但不玩就一定会输。 尽管版权价格几乎年年攀升，但体育迷依旧是行业里最具粘性、最能稳定带来增量的那部分人群。因此，每个巨头都在以不同身份切入：有的做内容、有 的做分发、有的做入口，但归根结底目标一致——抓住这批人，就能在长线格局中握住更多主动权。 尽管对面站着的，是谷歌这样级别的巨头。 图源：Sports Media Watch 事实上，今天的YouTube TV，已经跳出「试水性产品」的标签，成为电视行业中不可忽视的力量。截至发稿前，其订阅用户已接近1000万，成为仅次于 Charter和Comcast的美国第三大付费电视分发平台。 而YouTube TV能取得这样的增长，离不开谷歌支持下，对于有线电视内容的疯狂购买，其中与迪士尼长期维持的合 ...

Core Points - YouTube and Disney have reached a multi-year agreement that restores Disney's channels to YouTube TV subscribers after a 25-day blackout [1][6][7] - The deal includes the restoration of channels such as ABC, ESPN, and FX, along with additional offerings like ESPN's direct-to-consumer service at no extra cost [5][6] - The agreement reflects a commitment to providing exceptional entertainment and flexibility for subscribers, particularly in time for college football programming [6] Summary by Sections Agreement Details - YouTube TV subscribers will see the return of channels including ABC, ESPN, and FX over the course of the day [2][3] - The deal allows for the inclusion of the Disney Plus Hulu Bundle in select YouTube offerings [5] Impact on Subscribers - Subscribers will have access to a selection of live and on-demand programming from ESPN Unlimited within YouTube TV [5] - The restoration of channels is expected to occur within 24 hours, with saved recordings also being restored [3][4] Historical Context - The blackout of Disney-owned channels was the longest in recent memory, lasting 25 days, and occurred after the previous agreement expired on October 30 [6][7]

Core Insights - Disney and YouTube TV have not reached a new carriage deal, resulting in the blackout of major channels like ESPN and ABC from YouTube TV [1][2] - YouTube TV is offering a $20 credit to subscribers affected by the blackout, while alternatives to YouTube TV are being recommended [2][3] Group 1: Impact of the Blackout - The blackout affects popular Disney-owned channels including ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, and others, which are crucial for sports viewers [2][28] - YouTube TV has stated that negotiations with Disney are ongoing but cannot predict when the channels will be restored [2] Group 2: Alternatives to YouTube TV - Recommended alternatives include DirecTV, Sling TV, Fubo, and ESPN Unlimited, each offering different price points and channel line-ups [3][4] - DirecTV is highlighted as the best overall alternative, starting at $89.99 per month for the Entertainment plan, which includes 90+ channels [5][6] - ESPN Unlimited is a budget-friendly option at $29.99 per month, focusing on sports content [11][13] - Sling TV offers various plans, with the Sling Orange + Blue combo being the most comprehensive for major sports channels at $60.99 per month [17][19] - Fubo is noted for its extensive sports offerings, with the Pro plan costing $84.99 per month and including over 200 channels [20][21] Group 3: Historical Context of Carriage Disputes - Similar carriage disputes have occurred in the past, such as a 13-day blackout between DirecTV and Disney in Fall 2024, and an 11-day dispute with Charter in 2023 [26] - Long-term blackouts can result from these disputes, as seen with Fubo's loss of Warner Bros. channels in April 2024 [27]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently nervous about a potential macroeconomic slowdown, and there are specific indicators that analysts are closely monitoring regarding the company's performance and outlook [2][5]. Group 1: Key Indicators to Watch - The first key indicator is the absence of signs of a macroeconomic slowdown in the theme park segment [2]. - The second indicator is the need for the company to reiterate its double-digit adjusted earnings guidance for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 [2][5]. - The third indicator involves monitoring the direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment for any significant noise or disruptions, which could affect the overall narrative [2][3]. Group 2: Direct-to-Consumer Segment Insights - The DTC segment is expected to see topline acceleration, primarily driven by the global expansion of Hulu [5]. - The company has indicated a target of double-digit operating income, which needs to be reaffirmed to maintain investor confidence [5]. - There are various challenges in the DTC segment, including disputes, global rollouts, price hikes, and the launch of ESPN Unlimited, which could create noise but may be temporary in nature [3][4]. Group 3: Long-term Opportunities and Market Perception - A significant long-term opportunity for the company lies in enhancing its DTC app to position itself as a substitute for traditional pay TV, a space currently dominated by Netflix [6]. - Historically, the company has traded at a premium to the S&P 500 but is now trading at a discount, primarily due to perceived weaknesses in topline growth [7]. - The market's support for capital investments in parks and content is crucial for driving topline growth, especially among American investors [8].

Core Viewpoint - Disney is set to report its Q4 FY2025 earnings on November 13, with a focus on CEO Bob Iger's restructuring plan aimed at sustainable profit growth through cost-cutting, price increases, and streaming transformation [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts expect Disney's Q4 total revenue to reach $22.83 billion, up from $22.57 billion year-over-year, while adjusted EPS is projected at $1.07, down from $1.14 [1] - By segment, entertainment revenue is anticipated to decline from $10.83 billion to $10.49 billion, parks and experiences revenue is expected to grow to $8.8 billion from $8.24 billion, and sports revenue is forecasted to increase to $3.98 billion from $3.91 billion [1] Group 2: Business Segment Insights - The parks and experiences segment remains Disney's strongest profit driver, with stable visitor numbers despite competition from Universal Studios [2] - The cruise business continues to be a growth driver, although the launch of the "Disney Adventure" cruise ship has been delayed to March 2026, which may impact short-term profits but not long-term growth [2] - The direct-to-consumer segment, including Disney+ and Hulu, is expected to achieve operational profitability for the second consecutive quarter, reflecting a strategic shift from subscriber growth to profit margin expansion [2] Group 3: Streaming and Sports Strategy - Disney+ and Hulu are undergoing a price increase effective October 21, marking the fourth consecutive year of price hikes, with a goal of achieving over $1.3 billion in streaming operational profit by the end of the fiscal year [2] - Morgan Stanley projects that streaming operational profit could rise to approximately $2.8 billion by FY2026, driven by increased average revenue per user (ARPU) and efficiencies from the integration of Hulu and Disney+ [2] - The launch of ESPN Unlimited, a new streaming app, is expected to attract around 3 million users by FY2026, generating approximately $500 million in additional annual revenue [3] Group 4: Traditional Television Network Concerns - The performance of Disney's traditional television networks remains a concern, as competitors like Warner Bros. Discovery have reported declines in advertising revenue due to viewers shifting from traditional TV to streaming [4] Group 5: Leadership Transition - Investors are closely watching for updates on the CEO succession plan, with an announcement expected in early next year [5]

Core Viewpoint - Disney is set to announce its Q4 FY2025 earnings on November 13, with a focus on CEO Bob Iger's restructuring plan aimed at sustainable profit growth through cost-cutting, price increases, and streaming transformation [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts predict Disney's Q4 total revenue to be $22.83 billion, up from $22.57 billion year-over-year, with adjusted EPS expected to decline from $1.14 to $1.07 [1] - By segment, entertainment revenue is expected to decrease from $10.83 billion to $10.49 billion, while parks and experiences revenue is projected to grow from $8.24 billion to $8.80 billion, and sports revenue is anticipated to rise from $3.91 billion to $3.98 billion [1] Group 2: Streaming and Direct-to-Consumer Strategy - The parks and experiences segment remains Disney's strongest profit driver, with stable visitor numbers despite competition from Universal Studios [2] - The direct-to-consumer segment, including Disney+ and Hulu, is expected to achieve operational profitability for the second consecutive quarter, reflecting a strategic shift from subscriber growth to profit margin expansion [2] - Disney+ subscribers are projected to increase from 125.3 million to 130.1 million, coinciding with a new round of price increases effective October 21 [2] Group 3: Sports Business Developments - Disney launched the ESPN Unlimited streaming app in August, marking a significant innovation in its sports strategy, with expectations to attract around 3 million users by FY2026, generating approximately $500 million in additional annual revenue [3] - The company plans to expand the ESPN brand into Asian markets through Disney+, enhancing its sports offerings [3] Group 4: Traditional Television Network Concerns - The performance of Disney's traditional television networks remains under scrutiny, as competitors like Warner Bros. Discovery report declines in advertising revenue due to viewers shifting to streaming [4] Group 5: Leadership Transition - Investors are closely watching for updates on the CEO succession plan, with an announcement expected in early next year [5]

Core Insights - Disney (DIS) is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.98, which is below its historical average of 20.38 and the industry average, presenting a compelling valuation opportunity for investors [1][8] - The company is undergoing a significant transformation across its streaming, parks, and experiences divisions, aiming for long-term growth despite near-term challenges [2][19] Streaming Segment Performance - Disney's streaming segment achieved operating income of $346 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, a significant recovery from previous losses, with total subscriptions reaching 183 million, including 128 million Disney+ subscribers [5][6] - Management has raised the fiscal 2025 operating income expectation for streaming to $1.3 billion, indicating a strategic shift towards profitability rather than just subscriber growth [5][6] - For Q4 fiscal 2025, Disney anticipates adding over 10 million subscriptions, primarily from Hulu, while projecting modest growth for Disney+ due to recent price increases [6][10] Experiences Segment Performance - The Experiences segment reported a 13% increase in operating income to $2.5 billion, driven by a 22% year-over-year growth in domestic parks [7][10] - Management expects high single-digit percentage growth in the Experiences segment's operating income for fiscal 2026 and 2027, indicating a stable revenue base [8][10] Parks Business Developments - Disney implemented price increases across its parks in October 2025, affecting various services, yet demand remains strong with no significant impact on attendance [10][12] - Continuous investments in new attractions and seasonal experiences are aimed at driving repeat visitation and maintaining pricing power in the parks business [14] Strategic Initiatives and Content Pipeline - ESPN launched its ESPN Unlimited direct-to-consumer sports offering, with a strategic deal with the NFL that includes exclusive streaming rights to key events, enhancing its competitive position in the sports streaming market [15] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with major players like Netflix and Amazon exerting pressure on Disney's market share [18] Share Price and Investment Outlook - Disney shares have gained approximately 9.1% over the past six months, reflecting improved streaming profitability and robust park performance [16] - The investment thesis suggests a strategic hold on Disney shares while monitoring for selective entry opportunities as the company prepares for its upcoming fiscal results [19]

Core Insights - The streaming landscape is dominated by Disney and Netflix, with both companies reporting significant developments in their second-quarter earnings in 2025 [1] - A detailed comparison of the fundamentals of both stocks is necessary to determine the better investment opportunity [2] Disney's Investment Case - Under Bob Iger's leadership, Disney has shown operational improvements across all segments, with fiscal third-quarter revenues of $23.65 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.61, exceeding expectations despite a 2% revenue growth [3][4] - Disney+ has reached 128 million subscribers, adding 1.8 million in the latest quarter, indicating continued growth [3] - The Experiences segment generated $2.5 billion in operating income, supported by strong consumer demand and the launch of the Disney Treasure cruise ship [4] - Disney's fiscal 2025 guidance projects adjusted EPS of $5.85, an 18% increase from fiscal 2024, with direct-to-consumer operating income expected to reach $1.3 billion [5] - The company plans $8 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 to support growth initiatives, with a strong content pipeline extending beyond 2025 [5] Netflix's Investment Case - Netflix reported a 16% revenue growth to $11.08 billion in the second quarter, with an operating margin of 34.1%, but faces concerns about sustainability due to higher content amortization and marketing costs [6][8] - The decision to stop reporting subscriber numbers quarterly has raised transparency concerns among investors [8] - Netflix's full-year revenue guidance of $44.8-$45.2 billion indicates healthy growth, but the company must justify its premium valuation amid normalizing growth rates [8][9] - The reliance on expensive tentpole productions and limited revenue diversification beyond subscription fees poses structural challenges for Netflix [9] Valuation and Performance Comparison - Disney trades at a P/E ratio of 17.56x, significantly lower than Netflix's 40.25x, suggesting that the market may be undervaluing Disney's turnaround potential while overvaluing Netflix's growth prospects [10] - Year-to-date, Disney shares have gained approximately 2.2%, while Netflix has surged nearly 37.7%, indicating a potential entry point for Disney as operational improvements continue [14] Conclusion - Disney is positioned as the superior investment opportunity due to its discounted valuation, operational momentum, and diversified revenue streams, contrasting with Netflix's premium pricing and limited diversification [16]

Core Insights - Disney has presented a strong investment thesis for 2025, highlighted by its Q3 fiscal 2025 results, showcasing synergy between theme parks and streaming operations [1] - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.61, exceeding consensus estimates by 10.3%, and raised its full-year guidance to $5.85 per share, an 18% increase from fiscal 2024 [1][11] Theme Parks Performance - Disney's Experiences segment generated over $9 billion in revenue, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase, with Walt Disney World achieving record revenues due to strong demand and longer guest stays [2] - Domestic Parks operating income surged 22% to $1.65 billion, driven by higher per-capita guest spending and expanded cruise operations, indicating strong consumer demand for premium experiences [3] - The company anticipates approximately 8% growth in segment operating income for fiscal 2025, with current quarter bookings tracking about 6% higher [4] Streaming Business Developments - Disney's direct-to-consumer streaming segment achieved $346 million in operating income for Q3, a significant turnaround from previous losses, marking a critical profitability milestone [6] - Disney+ core subscribers reached 128 million, with an addition of 1.8 million in the quarter, while combined subscriptions for Disney+ and Hulu totaled 183 million [7] - The company raised its operating income expectation for streaming to $1.3 billion for fiscal 2025, indicating sustainable profitability growth [7] Content Strategy and Integration - Disney's competitive advantage lies in its ability to create valuable content across multiple segments, exemplified by the success of the live-action Lilo & Stitch film, which grossed over $1 billion and generated significant streaming hours on Disney+ [8] - Plans to fully integrate Hulu into Disney+ aim to enhance customer value and reduce operational complexity, creating a comprehensive entertainment package [9] Growth Catalysts - The launch of ESPN's direct-to-consumer service, ESPN Unlimited, is expected to contribute to overall earnings growth, supported by an expanded NFL partnership [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 revenues is $94.93 billion, indicating a 3.91% year-over-year growth, with earnings projected to increase by 17.3% to $5.83 per share [5] Valuation and Market Position - Disney trades at a forward P/E of approximately 18x, below the industry average of 20.11x, presenting compelling value compared to competitors [15] - Despite generating approximately $24.15 billion in direct-to-consumer revenues over the last 12 months, Disney's market capitalization remains lower than that of Netflix, which generated $41 billion [15] Investment Outlook - Disney's Q3 results reflect successful navigation of industry transformation, with record theme park performance, streaming profitability, and strategic content integration creating a compelling investment opportunity for 2025 [19] - The convergence of growth drivers, including global theme park expansion, profitable streaming operations, and enhanced sports content offerings, positions Disney favorably for sustained growth [20]