12月24日，在2025年尾声的波动行情中，加密货币市场正经历一场由流动性与财务清算共同主导的调 整。NCE外汇监测到，比特币近期在88000美元下方徘徊，虽然跌幅相对温和，但二级市场的加密概念 股却遭遇了更为剧烈的下挫。这种资产本身与关联股票之间的跌幅背离，揭示了机构投资者在岁末关头 的策略性撤退。 分析人士表示，这种非典型抛售主要归因于"税务亏损收割"行为。Wincent高级董事Paul Howard认为， 为了在纳税申报中冲抵资本利得，投资者倾向于在年底清算表现不佳的头寸。NCE外汇认为，这种季节 性的调仓行为在低流动性环境下被放大，导致即使是微小的资金流出也能引发资产价格的显著波动。 事实数据表示，BTC与ETH的永续合约持仓量近期累计缩水约50亿美元，这标志着市场去杠杆进程的加 速。QCP Capital指出，随着杠杆资金的离场，市场防御价格异动的能力正在削弱。与此同时，Wincent 相关研究认为，目前约2.6万亿美元的总市值若要重返4万亿美元峰值，仍需漫长的复苏期与重大的基本 面利好支撑。 在宏观金融维度，尽管经济数据显示出较强的增长韧性，但投资者对通胀反弹及利率路径的担忧仍令风 险偏好受限。N ...

Core Insights - Ethereum market experienced significant volatility with ETH perpetual contracts dropping by 3.76%, falling below the critical psychological level of $3900, reaching a low of $3878.49 [1] - The outflow of $145.99 million from the US spot Ethereum ETF is the largest single-day outflow in nearly two months, indicating a cautious attitude from institutional investors towards short-term market trends [1][3] Market Dynamics - The recent outflow from the Ethereum ETF highlights a shift in institutional sentiment, occurring during a sensitive period of changing Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [3] - Despite ETF outflows, on-chain data shows that several whale addresses, including BitMine, have been accumulating ETH during the price dip, indicating confidence in Ethereum's long-term value [3] Macro Environment - Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations are crucial for the cryptocurrency market, with a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 98.6% chance of a total 50 basis point cut by December [5] - Concerns over economic recession risks are overshadowing the potential benefits of rate cuts, leading to a cautious market sentiment [5] - Political uncertainty, including remarks from Trump about high tariffs, has negatively impacted market sentiment, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both experiencing declines [5] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The market sentiment has turned cautious, with significant declines in trading volumes and open interest in futures, indicating a shift towards risk aversion among traders [8] - Technical analysis shows that ETH perpetual contracts are in an oversold region, with key support at $3801 and resistance at $4069 [8] Institutional Divergence - There is a notable divergence in institutional sentiment, with traditional financial institutions showing caution through ETF outflows, while crypto-native institutions and high-net-worth individuals are accumulating ETH [11] - The balance of power between bulls and bears in the ETH perpetual contract market is shifting, with potential for a new upward trend if key support levels hold [11]

Group 1 - Tether has invested $2 billion in energy production and has made significant investments in Bitcoin mining [1] - The XBIT decentralized exchange platform is expanding its business through open-source smart contracts, reducing transaction costs and attracting more users [1][2] - Tether has launched an AI platform called QVAC, allowing AI agents to manage funds independently without external constraints [2] Group 2 - Tether's collaboration with Rumble will introduce the Rumble wallet, prioritizing Bitcoin while also offering stablecoin storage [2] - Ethereum is entering a new phase called the Aggregation Era, focusing on technology upgrades and ecosystem integration to enhance performance and user experience [4] - The XBIT platform's architecture aligns with Ethereum's Aggregation Era, utilizing zero-knowledge proofs and cross-chain interoperability to improve transaction convenience and asset liquidity [6] Group 3 - XBIT's ETH perpetual contracts allow investors to trade with leverage and hedge risks without holding the underlying assets, enhancing trading efficiency [6] - Compliance is becoming crucial as XBIT explores regulatory measures, including KYC modules and anti-money laundering monitoring systems [6] - XBIT's low transaction costs and efficient trading mechanisms enhance its competitiveness in the decentralized exchange market, providing a superior user experience [6]