MATT: IT IS THIRSTY THURSDAY AND FUTURES ARE HIGHER. ALREADY MINUTES UNTIL THE START OF THE CASH TRADE. I AM MATT MILLER. DANI: I AM DANI BURGER."BLOOMBERG: OPEN INTEREST" STARTS RIGHT NOW. -- THE OLD ECONOMY IS HOT AGAIN. STOCKS IN THE DOW TRANSPORT ARE GETTING A NEW LEASE ON LIFE AS A NEW WAVE OF AI ANXIETY SPREADS ACROSS OTHER SECTORS.DANI: NUVEEN IS BUYING SCHRODERS, CREATING ONE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST ACTIVE MANAGERS WITH NEARLY $2.5% BILLION IN ASSETS. MATT: PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS AGENDA PASSES THA ...

Market Overview - The Dow is experiencing gains, aiming for a third consecutive record close, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ show mixed performance with slight declines [1][2][8]. - The S&P 500 equal-weighted index and small-cap indices like the S&P 600 are reaching record highs, indicating strong performance in broader market segments [3]. - Bond yields are decreasing, with the 10-year yield down to 4.14% and the 30-year yield at 4.79%, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment towards bonds [4]. Sector Performance - Utilities and real estate sectors are leading the market, with utilities up approximately 2.3% and real estate up about 1.5%, reflecting their sensitivity to interest rates [5]. - Financials, technology, and healthcare sectors are underperforming, indicating a potential shift in investor focus away from these areas [5][6]. AI and Technology Insights - The AI sector is entering a new phase, with companies increasingly relying on debt for capital expenditures rather than free cash flow, as seen in major firms like Google and Amazon [9][10]. - Investors are currently accepting of big tech companies taking on debt to finance AI developments, but there is a growing concern about the return on investment (ROI) and whether these expenditures will yield positive results in the future [12][14]. - The competitive landscape in AI is evolving, with uncertainty about which companies will emerge as leaders, prompting a cautious approach from investors [16][17]. Alphabet's Bond Offering - Alphabet is raising approximately $32 billion through multiple bond deals, including a rare 100-year bond, to finance its AI infrastructure buildout despite having substantial cash reserves [20][21]. - The demand for long-term bonds from companies like Alphabet indicates a shift in investment strategies, with institutional investors seeking stable, long-term returns [21]. Tax Implications for Big Tech - Major tech companies like Amazon and Meta are projected to see significant reductions in their tax bills for 2025, attributed to favorable tax provisions and credits related to AI investments and capital expenditures [22][23]. - This reduction in tax liabilities is expected to positively impact their bottom lines, although it may attract public scrutiny regarding their tax practices [23]. Job Market and Economic Outlook - The upcoming jobs report is anticipated to show a modest increase in employment, with projections around 70,000 new jobs added, but the White House is preparing for potential criticism if the numbers fall short of expectations [22][23]. - The labor market is described as stable, with sluggish hiring but no significant increase in layoffs, indicating a cautious economic environment [22].

Core Thesis - Ferrari N.V. is viewed positively due to its strong brand, profitability, and strategic approach to electrification, making it a long-term growth favorite among investors [2][3][4] Financial Performance - As of December 1st, Ferrari's share price was $386.93, with a market capitalization of $74.58 billion [2] - The company achieved a 36% total shareholder return in 2024, showcasing its ability to maintain exclusivity and pricing power [2] - In Q3 2025, Ferrari reported a 48% return on equity and an adjusted operating margin of 28.3% in 2024, indicating superior profitability [3] Strategic Positioning - Ferrari balances tradition and innovation by maintaining its internal combustion engine lineup while introducing hybrid and electric models [3] - The racing division contributes significantly to brand value and revenue, reinforcing Ferrari's identity as a luxury and performance leader [4] Shareholder Dynamics - Exor, Ferrari's largest shareholder, reduced its stake to decrease portfolio concentration but remains a significant holder [2] - At the end of Q2, 43 hedge fund portfolios held Ferrari shares, down from 51 in the previous quarter, indicating a slight decline in hedge fund interest [6][7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 revenue was $7.7 billion, up 1% year-over-year [5] - EBITDA for Q3 was $292 million, with net income of $213 million and earnings per share of $3.23 [5] - Retail automotive same-store revenue increased by 5%, with service and parts revenue also up by 5% [5] - Total new vehicle gross per unit was impacted by a higher percentage of BEV sales, reducing gross by approximately $100 [6][8] - Free cash flow for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $625 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. automotive retail same-store new and used unit sales increased by 5%, with new units up 9% and used units up 1% [10] - Premier Truck Group same-store unit sales declined by 19% during Q3, with EBITDA down $15 million [9][12] - International revenue was $2.9 billion, with a 7% decline in same-store units delivered in the UK [15] - Used vehicle gross profit in the UK increased by 19%, contributing to an overall increase in used vehicle gross per unit [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., same-store new units delivered increased by 9%, while revenue increased by nearly 10% [7] - The UK retail automotive market faced challenges due to a cyber incident at Jaguar Land Rover, impacting new vehicle deliveries [8][15] - The Class 8 market saw a 30% decline in orders and a 22% decline in retail sales during Q3 [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to its diversification strategy and has acquired a Ferrari dealership in Modena, Italy [23] - The focus on electric vehicle sales increased, with BEV sales making up over 10% of total sales in Q3 [6] - The company is adjusting its cost structure in response to macroeconomic challenges and is well-positioned for a market rebound [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the diversified model's ability to adapt to market conditions [25] - The operating environment in the UK remains challenging due to inflation and interest rates, impacting consumer affordability [15] - Management anticipates a gradual recovery in the freight environment, with potential improvements in freight rates and capacity [51] Other Important Information - The company repaid $550 million of senior subordinated notes, reducing non-vehicle debt to $1.57 billion [21] - Total inventory was $4.7 billion, with retail automotive inventory down $9 million [23] - The company has $262 million remaining under the existing securities repurchase authorization [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Chinese brands and Sytner Select locations - Management confirmed the transition to Sytner Select involved reducing big-box retail stores to eight high-quality locations, with partnerships with Chinese brands like Chery and Geely [32][34] Question: Impact of tax deductions on Q4 demand - Management indicated that the tax deduction for depreciation would have an impact on Q4 demand, with production schedules filled for Q4 [38][40] Question: Visibility on recovery for Premier Truck Group - Management noted that freight rates have bottomed out and discussed potential capacity tightening due to regulatory changes affecting CDL drivers [49][50] Question: Growth in U.S. parts and service business - Management highlighted strong performance in customer pay and warranty services, driven by an aging vehicle fleet and operational efficiencies [54][56] Question: Trends in luxury vehicle sales and GPU - Management discussed the performance of luxury brands, particularly Jaguar Land Rover, and the impact of supply constraints on gross profit per unit [66][68]

Core Viewpoint - Ferrari's stock price has entered a bear market, declining over 25% from its peak in July, currently trading at $392 and resulting in a market capitalization of $94 billion [1] Group 1 - The stock price of Ferrari has dropped significantly, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] - The decline in stock price has led to a market capitalization reduction to $94 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ferrari (RACE) has experienced a significant decline of 15% over the past four weeks, but it is now in oversold territory, indicating a potential trend reversal as analysts expect better earnings than previously predicted [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that helps identify whether a stock is oversold, with readings below 30 indicating oversold conditions [2] - RACE's current RSI reading is 24.58, suggesting that the heavy selling pressure may be exhausting itself, leading to a potential trend reversal [5] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for RACE has increased by 6.1%, indicating a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions, which typically correlates with price appreciation [7] - RACE holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further supporting the potential for a turnaround [8]

Market Overview - All three major U.S. stock indices are currently in the red, with the Dow down approximately 300 points, the S&P 500 down about 0.4%, and the NASDAQ down about 0.3% [1] - Despite the current downturn, the S&P 500 is still up 14% year-to-date, having rallied significantly from its April lows [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials are expressing caution regarding interest rate cuts due to uncertainties surrounding inflation and tariffs [33] - Fed Governor Michael Bar highlighted concerns about persistent inflation risks from tariffs, estimating the effective tariff rate at about 11% as of August [34][35] - New York Fed President John Williams is more focused on job market conditions than inflation, given the slower payroll growth [36] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is in its second week, with increasing pressure on lawmakers, particularly within the Republican party [31][41] - The shutdown is affecting access to key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [43][46] PepsiCo's Business Strategy - PepsiCo is undergoing a reset in its Frito-Lay business, focusing on improving basics such as pricing and execution to drive growth [7][10] - The company is optimistic about achieving positive net revenue growth in the coming quarters, despite current challenges [10][11] - PepsiCo is also rationalizing its product offerings, reducing about 15% of its SKUs to improve efficiency and focus on faster-moving products [15][16] Innovation and Product Development - PepsiCo is launching new products focused on health and wellness, including high-protein snacks and beverages with no artificial ingredients [19][22] - The company is also investing in acquisitions to enhance its portfolio, with plans to integrate new brands into its distribution system [24][25] Airline Industry Performance - Delta Airlines reported strong earnings, exceeding expectations and indicating a positive revenue outlook, driven by recovering demand in both consumer and corporate travel [70][71] - The airline industry is seeing a return of corporate travel, which had previously paused, contributing to a more optimistic outlook [73][74] Digital Asset Treasuries - The rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) is notable, with companies holding significant amounts of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum on their balance sheets [85][88] - Institutional adoption of digital assets is increasing, driven by regulatory clarity and the perception of cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation [88][89]

Group 1: Netflix - Netflix experienced significant negative attention following a call from Elon Musk to cancel subscriptions, leading to its worst week since April [1][2] - Despite the controversy, analysts believe the impact on Netflix's stock price will not be lasting, viewing the current situation as a potential buying opportunity rather than a reason to sell [3] Group 2: Bitcoin and Coinbase - Bitcoin has seen a surge, with Coinbase reporting its best week since June, up 20% year-to-date, and receiving an upgrade from neutral to buy with a target price increase from $325 to $417 [4] - The management team at Coinbase is viewed positively, with the company having 100 million users and offering a diversified range of 240 different cryptocurrencies [5] Group 3: Ferrari - Ferrari has been initiated with a target price of $570, with expectations of modest volume growth but attractive long-term results for investors [6] - The high-end consumer market remains strong, with continued spending despite economic pressures, although Ferrari is not immune to tariffs which may impact its profitability over time [7][8] - Ferrari's stock performance has been notably strong compared to competitors like Porsche, indicating a favorable market position [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the immense appeal and cultural significance of Formula 1 (F1) racing, particularly among male audiences, highlighting its blend of high stakes, luxury, and the allure of speed and technology [14][66][109]. Financial Overview - In 2018, Red Bull Racing generated total revenue of $183.6 million, with key sources including sponsorship ($29.5 million), prize money and R&D grants ($59.7 million), and Red Bull payments ($82.9 million) [17]. - The total costs for the same year were $181.1 million, leading to a net profit of $1.8 million after taxes [17]. - The average cost of an F1 car is approximately 150 million RMB, equating to the price of a luxury apartment in a high-end area [18]. Market Dynamics - F1 is projected to see sponsorship revenues exceed $2.9 billion by 2025, with around 320 brands expected to participate [74]. - The commercial strategy of F1 focuses on monetizing every visible aspect of the sport, from car branding to team apparel and event sponsorships [77][78]. Cultural Impact - F1 serves as a platform for luxury brands, transforming race cars into mobile advertisements and showcasing high-end products [81][89]. - The sport has evolved into a cultural phenomenon where the image and persona of drivers are as significant as their racing skills, appealing to high-net-worth individuals [96][99]. Audience Engagement - F1 attracts a demographic of affluent individuals, with events becoming social statements and cultural touchpoints for new middle-class consumers [133][138]. - The return of F1 to China has seen a surge in ticket demand, with prices for premium seats exceeding 4,000 RMB, indicating its status as a desirable experience among consumers [127][130].