ab 14 November 2025 Oil prices might recover in 2026-28E, China demand dragged by gasoline/diesel Crude oil: UBS projects Brent crude oil price to average US$64/70/75/bbl in 2026-28, with expectations that the second tranche of OPEC+'s voluntary cuts of 1.65Mb/d may end in Dec 2026 and the effective production increase may be 40% of the headline numbers. Oil prices could improve from later part of 2026, in UBS view. Weak gasoline and diesel consumption might further weigh on China demand and we project 4.4% ...

Core Insights - Three stocks with strong growth characteristics and buy ranks are highlighted for investors: Ultrapar Participaçoes S.A., Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation, and Seagate Technology Holdings plc [1][2][3] Company Summaries - **Ultrapar Participaçoes S.A. (UGP)**: - Zacks Rank 1 - Current year earnings estimate increased by 51.9% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio of 1.90 compared to the industry average of 2.45 - Growth Score of A [1][2] - **Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation (ZWS)**: - Zacks Rank 1 - Current year earnings estimate increased by 4.2% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio of 2.23 compared to the industry average of 2.68 - Growth Score of B [2] - **Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)**: - Zacks Rank 1 - Current year earnings estimate increased by 7% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio of 1.00 compared to the industry average of 1.47 - Growth Score of B [3]

Summary of Weekly Oil Data Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically crude oil and refined products in the United States. Key Points Crude Oil Inventory and Production - Crude oil inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels (Mb), contrasting with the consensus expectation of an increase of 1.2 Mb and the 5-year average increase of 1.6 Mb [1] - API data indicated a larger draw of 3.0 Mb [1] - Crude production remained stable at 13.6 million barrels per day (Mb/d) [1] - Refinery utilization increased by 290 basis points week-over-week (w/w) to 88.6% of operable capacity, against a consensus expectation of a decrease of 40 basis points [1] Product Demand and Consumption - Implied oil products consumption rose by 0.3 Mb/d w/w to 20.0 Mb/d, primarily driven by propane, which increased by 0.4 Mb/d [2] - Total demand over a 4-week average remained flat at 20.5 Mb/d [2] Product Inventories - Total product inventories fell by 3.2 Mb to 862 Mb, led by a decrease in gasoline inventories by 2.1 Mb, which was larger than the consensus decrease of 0.8 Mb [3] - Jet fuel and distillate inventories also decreased by 1.5 Mb each, while gains were seen in "Others" (+1.3 Mb), propane (+0.8 Mb), and fuel oil (+0.5 Mb) [3] Detailed Weekly Petroleum Status Report - Crude oil production was reported at 13,629 kb/d, with a slight decrease of 7 kb/d [4] - Crude oil imports increased by 393 kb/d to 5,918 kb/d [4] - Exports of crude oil decreased by 263 kb/d to 4,203 kb/d [4] - Total crude oil stocks were reported at 422.8 Mb, down by 1.0 Mb [4] - Gasoline production increased by 134 kb/d to 9,612 kb/d, while gasoline stocks decreased by 2.1 Mb to 216.7 Mb [4] - Middle distillate production rose by 40 kb/d to 4,632 kb/d, with stocks down by 1.5 Mb to 115.6 Mb [4] Market Dynamics - The report indicates a bullish sentiment in the crude oil market due to the unexpected draw in inventories and increased refinery utilization [1][4] - The overall demand for oil products remains stable, with fluctuations in specific categories such as propane and distillates [2][3] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring both inventory levels and production rates to gauge market conditions and potential investment opportunities in the oil sector [1][2][3] - The data suggests that while there are fluctuations in specific product demands, the overall market remains resilient, indicating potential stability in oil prices moving forward [2][3] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the weekly oil report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the oil industry in the United States.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly crude oil and petroleum products, with insights into market dynamics and seasonal impacts on demand and supply [1][2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Crude Oil Fundamentals**: Despite softer fundamentals, OPEC+'s production return is impacting crude oil prices, with inventories building and Brent crude prices pressured towards $60/bbl [1][2]. 2. **OECD Inventories**: OECD commercial crude oil inventories are building, with a preliminary monthly stock increase of over 10 million barrels, contributing to downward pressure on Brent prices [2]. 3. **Dangote Refinery Issues**: Uncertainties surrounding Nigeria's Dangote refinery operations are affecting gasoline supply, with a significant reduction in gasoline output due to operational challenges [3][20]. 4. **Gasoil Crack Spreads**: Gasoil crack spreads are currently wide due to low stocks, but are expected to moderate in 2026 as refinery production strengthens and demand flattens [4][24]. 5. **Winter Demand Projections**: Potential for wider gasoil cracks this winter exists due to the possibility of a cold winter and geopolitical tensions, which could temporarily boost demand for heating fuels [5][25]. 6. **Kerosene Demand**: Demand for kerosene is expected to moderate, but a cold winter in East Asia could lead to price increases due to its use as a heating fuel [6][39]. 7. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Recent de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, may reduce the price premium on oil, impacting market dynamics [10][12]. 8. **Managed Money Positioning**: Managed money positioning in Brent and WTI is at its second lowest in the last decade, indicating potential for a price rebound if geopolitical tensions escalate or if winter demand spikes [16][18]. 9. **Price Forecasts**: The base case price forecast for Brent is $63/bbl in 4Q25 and $60/bbl in 1Q26, with a bear case suggesting lower averages of $55/bbl and $50/bbl respectively [17]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Refinery Margins**: Refining margins have been climbing throughout the year, indicating improved profitability for refiners [27][29]. 2. **Weather Analysis**: The report includes a weather analysis suggesting a milder winter in the US, colder conditions in East Asia, and normal temperatures in Europe, which could influence energy demand [7][51]. 3. **La Niña Impact**: NOAA forecasts a potential La Niña winter, which typically brings colder conditions to Northeast Asia and warmer, drier weather to the southern US [52][55]. 4. **Stockpiling Trends**: China's oil purchases have slowed, potentially allowing the market to front-run its purchases, which could eventually support oil prices again [12][38]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the oil industry.

Economic Pressures and Energy Market Shifts - The US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has increased to 6.34% from 6.30%, indicating rising borrowing costs that may affect housing market activity [2][8] - The global energy sector is experiencing an unexpected surge in fuel oil demand due to disruptions in the Red Sea and the emergence of a shadow fleet, leading to volatility in energy prices and supply chains [3][8] Geopolitical Tensions Dominate Headlines - Russian President Vladimir Putin has made statements blaming Europe for the lack of peace in Ukraine and has expressed gratitude to BRICS nations and others for their peace efforts [4][5] - Putin has suggested that Russia may consider countermeasures to European militarization while dismissing claims of an imminent attack on NATO as hysteria [5][8] - The White House has indicated that military strikes in Venezuela are not off the table, suggesting a potential escalation in US foreign policy [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel oil futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with significant price fluctuations and a notable decline in demand and supply dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 25, the fuel oil futures main contract opened at 3062.00 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 3071.00 CNY and a minimum of 2996.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 6.11% [1]. - Domestic fuel oil sales reached 44,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons or 5.91% from the previous month [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by reduced exports from Russia and Iran, while Singapore's imports remain high, leading to an overall surplus in the market [2]. - The domestic fuel oil inventory rate increased to 9.0%, up from 7.1%, indicating a rise of 1.9 percentage points [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has alleviated concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions, although tensions remain due to recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [2]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to influence fuel oil prices, with potential for further escalation [2].

Core Insights - Three stocks are highlighted with strong income characteristics and a buy rank for investors to consider on May 5 Group 1: Euroseas Ltd. (ESEA) - Euroseas Ltd. is an ocean-going transportation services company with a Zacks Rank 1 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 8% over the last 60 days [1] - The company offers a dividend yield of 8%, significantly higher than the industry average of 2.5% [1] Group 2: NatWest Group plc (NWG) - NatWest Group plc is a banking and financial services company with a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 5.6% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a dividend yield of 5.9%, compared to the industry average of 3.7% [2] Group 3: Ultrapar Participaçoes S.A. (UGP) - Ultrapar Participaçoes S.A. is a distributor of liquefied petroleum gas, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, and kerosene with a Zacks Rank 1 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 6.5% over the last 60 days [3] - The company offers a dividend yield of 4.4%, slightly above the industry average of 4.3% [3]