RT Amy (@_SFTahoe)I will never have to take my Dad’s car keys away. That was a moment I was dreading. Such a relief! Dad just ordered a Tesla Model Y Performance and purchased Full Self Driving (FSD). Night driving already isn’t his favorite - now the car will drive him.Never have to take away your parents keys too: Have them Buy a Tesla, the car that drives itself.Through February 14th they can buy FSD outright with a one-time purchase, after 2/14 FSD is available by monthly subscription. (My sister also b ...

Autonomous driving and fully driverless robotaxis could be the future of automotive transportation -- and that future is coming fast. A recent report from McKinsey predicts that 2030 could be the year when robotaxis achieve mass deployment around the world. McKinsey defines a robotaxi as a "vehicle on demand" operating in urban areas with autonomous driving capabilities of Level 4 (able to function without a human driver ready to take over) or Level 5 (fully autonomous in any environment and conditions). ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla Inc is expected to report its Q4 2025 earnings, with a focus on its advancements in autonomous driving and robotics as demand stabilizes [1] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Tesla's revenue is forecasted to be around $25 billion, with automotive revenue near $18 billion, driven by strong EV deliveries and energy generation [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to be $0.45, with potential for higher figures due to the energy division's better margin profile compared to the EV business [3] Autonomous Driving and Robotics - The narrative surrounding Tesla is shifting towards its autonomous ambitions, particularly the rollout of Robotaxis and the removal of safety drivers from its fleet [4][5] - Full self-driving (FSD) penetration is expected to exceed 50%, which could significantly alter Tesla's financial model and margins [3] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that Tesla could achieve a market cap of $2 trillion within the next year, and potentially $3 trillion by the end of 2026, with a projected 70% share of the global autonomous market over the next decade [8] - The upcoming year is viewed as a pivotal moment for Tesla, with expectations of aggressive Robotaxi rollouts to over 30 US cities by 2026 [6] Strategic Developments - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk is anticipated to discuss the Cybercab and Optimus initiatives during the earnings call, highlighting the company's strategic direction [5] - Regulatory changes in 2026 may favor federal oversight of autonomous vehicle regulations, potentially benefiting Tesla's operations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Magnificent Seven tech stocks are experiencing mixed performance, with some members showing significant growth while others are under pressure, leading to a divergence in their valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of the Magnificent Seven - Apple, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms are struggling, while Tesla and Alphabet have shown strong performance recently [1]. - Nvidia and Amazon are currently flat, but there is potential for them to regain momentum before the quarter ends [2]. - Tesla's stock has increased by over 47% in the past six months, making it one of the top performers among the Magnificent Seven [8]. Group 2: Alphabet's Position - Alphabet's shares have risen nearly 64% over the past year, yet the stock remains relatively inexpensive with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.5 [5][3]. - The company is expected to continue gaining traction with its AI initiatives, particularly with Google Gemini, which could enhance its market position [6][7]. - Analysts believe Alphabet has the potential to surpass Nvidia in market value due to various growth opportunities, including AI partnerships and new applications [7]. Group 3: Tesla's Valuation and Growth Potential - Tesla's stock is viewed as expensive with a trailing P/E of 311, which may hinder its ability to reach new highs [8]. - Despite the high valuation, long-term growth opportunities such as Full Self Driving subscriptions and potential robotaxi services could justify the premium price [9]. - The execution and timing risks associated with Tesla's growth strategies are acknowledged, suggesting a cautious approach to investment [10].

Group 1: Vehicle Deliveries - In the fourth quarter, Tesla's total vehicle deliveries were 418,227, representing a 15% decline from 495,570 vehicles delivered in the same period last year [1] - For the full year, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles, which is an 8% decrease compared to 2024, marking the second consecutive year of annual sales declines [2] - Tesla's fourth quarter delivery total fell short of Wall Street forecasts, which were just under 423,000 vehicles [1][2] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts speculated that Tesla's early release of delivery estimates was a strategy to mitigate the impact of a poor delivery report [3] - Cox Automotive's Kelley Blue Book estimated that Tesla's US sales fell to 125,900 units in the quarter, down 22.4% [4] - The loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit at the start of the quarter contributed to the decline in deliveries [3] Group 3: Future Prospects - Despite the smaller-than-expected fleet size, the narrative around Tesla's robotaxi remains strong, according to analysts [5] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk mentioned plans for 1,000 vehicles in the Bay Area and over 500 in Austin, although tracking suggests these levels may not be achieved [6] - Analysts believe that the transition to an AI-driven valuation for Tesla is beginning, with significant developments expected in full self-driving and autonomous services [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla, Inc. is gaining significant attention on Wall Street due to advancements in its Full Self Driving (FSD) technology, with analysts optimistic about its potential for unsupervised driving capabilities [1][4]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Target - Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter has reiterated an "Overweight" rating on Tesla's stock with a price target of $500, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [1]. Group 2: FSD Technology Improvements - Analysts have noted sharp improvements in Tesla's FSD performance metrics, particularly the "miles to critical disengagement," which showed a greater than 20 times improvement after the release of FSD version 14.1.x in October, increasing from 441 miles to over 9200 miles [2][3][4]. - This improvement marks the largest sequential enhancement observed in four years of data collection, contributing to increased investor interest in Tesla [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla's stock rating from Overweight to Equal-weight while increasing the price target to $425 from $410, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's auto business and a balanced view on its AI ambitions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Analyst Changes and Price Target - Andrew Percoco has taken over coverage of Tesla, downgrading the stock rating while raising the price target based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis [1][3]. - The increase in price target includes an additional $60 per share attributed to the humanoid robotics business, despite a moderated outlook on the auto and energy sectors [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Valuation - High expectations surrounding Tesla's AI initiatives have led to a premium valuation, which is now considered fairly priced [2]. - The analyst anticipates a choppy trading environment for Tesla shares over the next 12 months, with downside risks to estimates and current catalysts for non-auto businesses already priced in [2]. Group 3: Auto Business Outlook - The downgrade reflects a reduction in auto volume expectations, with a projected 10.5% decrease in 2026 volumes and an 18.5% reduction in cumulative deliveries through 2040 due to cautious views on EV adoption and increasing competition [4]. - Full Self Driving (FSD) remains a significant competitive advantage for Tesla, viewed as a game changer in the auto business [6]. Group 4: Robotaxi Developments - Percoco predicts approximately 33 new robotaxi service launches across the US in 2026, a significant increase from the 11 expected in 2025, with testing expected in Nevada and Arizona [7]. - Potential growth in robotaxi services may be tempered by regulatory hurdles and scaling challenges related to adverse weather conditions [8].

Tesla Inc. Research Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) - **Industry**: Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: $1,604,330 million - **Current Stock Price**: $455.00 (as of December 5, 2025) - **Price Target**: Increased from $410.00 to $425.00, implying a 6% downside from current levels [4][10] Key Points Rating and Valuation - **Rating Change**: Coverage assumed at Equal-weight from Overweight [4][10] - **Valuation Framework**: A full refresh of the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation framework was conducted, leading to a $15/share upside to the prior price target [10] - **Humanoid Business Value**: Updated model includes $60/share of value for Tesla's Humanoid business (Optimus) [10][12] Market Position and Outlook - **Market Leadership**: Tesla is recognized as a global leader in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI, justifying a premium valuation [4][10] - **Choppy Trading Environment**: Anticipated volatility in TSLA shares over the next 12 months due to downside risks to estimates and priced-in non-auto catalysts [4][10] Financial Projections - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for fiscal years ending December 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $2.41, $1.66, $1.98, and $2.69 respectively [8] - **Auto Volume Forecast**: MSe auto volume forecast is 13% below consensus for 2026, reflecting a more cautious EV industry outlook [10] Business Segments Autos - **Valuation**: Auto business valued at $55/share, based on long-term DCF with 13% annual unit growth through 2040 [34] - **Market Share**: Expected to maintain 9-11% of the global EV market by 2040 [34] Energy - **Valuation**: Energy business valued at $40/share, with storage deployments expected to compound at an 18% growth rate through 2040 [55] - **Market Position**: Tesla is a leading provider of Energy Storage Systems (ESS), with gross margins improving from 7% in 2022 to 31% in 2025 [50] Robotaxi (Tesla Mobility) - **Market Penetration**: By 2030, Tesla's fleet is expected to capture 20% of the US autonomous vehicle market with 30,000 vehicles [61] - **Valuation**: Tesla Mobility valued at $125/share, with a projected fleet scaling from 1,000 units in 2026 to 5 million by 2040 [66] Humanoids - **Market Potential**: The global humanoid market could reach $7.5 trillion annually by 2050, with Tesla expected to capture significant market share [71][77] - **Valuation**: Humanoids valued at $60/share, reflecting Tesla's leadership in AI and manufacturing [78] Risks and Challenges - **Competition**: Increased competition and margin pressure across all business lines could impact Tesla's market share and profitability [11] - **Regulatory Hurdles**: Challenges in scaling autonomous vehicles in adverse weather conditions and regulatory environments [60] Conclusion - Tesla remains a strong player in the EV and renewable energy markets, with significant growth potential in humanoids and robotaxi services. However, the company faces challenges from competition and market volatility, necessitating a cautious investment approach at this time [4][10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla shares are experiencing a significant rebound despite previous challenges, with a notable increase of over 30% in September, marking its best performance for the month in history [3][4]. Group 1: Political Involvement and Market Reaction - Elon Musk's political involvement led to backlash, including protests and boycotts against Tesla, which negatively impacted the company's image and sales [2]. - Musk's decision to step back from politics has been positively received by investors, alleviating concerns about his focus on Tesla [4][12]. Group 2: Delivery and Production Expectations - Tesla is expected to report Q3 delivery numbers of approximately 448,000 units, a decrease from 462,890 units delivered in Q3 2024 [9]. - Production expectations for Q3 2025 are set at 470,000 vehicles, with a full-year delivery outlook of around 1.85 million vehicles [10]. Group 3: Factors Supporting Optimism - Anticipation of a 'pull forward' effect in Q3 deliveries due to the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit, prompting consumers to purchase before the incentive ends [11]. - The Model Y has been revamped and is expected to drive sales, alongside the growing momentum of Cybertruck production [14]. - China's economic recovery, with a GDP growth of 5%, is likely to boost Tesla's sales in the region, which accounts for about 22% of total revenue [15]. - Recent interest rate cuts are expected to lower monthly costs for potential buyers, further incentivizing purchases [16]. - Tariffs on foreign EVs are making Tesla's US-manufactured vehicles more attractive, enhancing its competitive position [17]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Betting markets predict Q3 Tesla deliveries to be around 505,000, exceeding Wall Street's consensus estimates [18]. - Tesla's stock has shown a historical pattern of significant price increases following periods of stagnation, suggesting potential for future growth [21]. - Despite a high price-to-earnings ratio of 207x, investors remain optimistic due to Tesla's innovative potential in various sectors, including humanoid robots and energy solutions [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Elon Musk's new pay package from Tesla, which is seen as potentially achievable due to its lenient benchmarks, despite being presented as a challenging performance-based compensation plan [3][4][5]. Group 1: Pay Package Details - Musk's current share ownership is 19.7%, but achieving all benchmarks could increase his stake by an additional 12% [1] - The pay package requires Musk to deliver 20 million vehicles, operate 1 million robotaxis, achieve 10 million active subscriptions for Full Self Driving (FSD), and increase EBITDA to $400 billion annually, along with a market value of $8.5 trillion by 2035 [11][12][18] - The benchmarks are criticized for being "watered-down" versions of Musk's previous promises, making them appear more daunting than they actually are [4][5] Group 2: Market Performance and Challenges - Tesla's automotive sales have been declining, and the company is losing market share to competitors, with the Cybertruck underperforming significantly [7] - Tesla's profits per share and revenue have not met investor expectations, with the share price down about 2% this year compared to a 12% gain in the S&P 500 [8] - Despite Musk's $1 billion purchase of Tesla shares post-pay deal announcement, the stock remains approximately 12.8% below its peak closing price from the previous year [8] Group 3: Board Dynamics and Independence - The Tesla board, which includes Musk's brother and personal friends, is criticized for lacking independence in approving the pay package [9][10] - The board's unanimous approval of the deal raises questions about whether it truly reflects the interests of Tesla shareholders [10] Group 4: Achievability of Goals - The goal of delivering 20 million vehicles includes approximately 8 million already delivered, suggesting that the remaining target is less challenging than it appears [13] - The definition of "robotaxi" is broad, allowing for flexibility in meeting the goal of 1 million operational vehicles [15] - The redefinition of FSD and the vague criteria for achieving subscription goals further complicate the assessment of whether these targets are genuinely ambitious [16][12]