Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities report highlights that Ganli Pharmaceutical's innovative drug data is impressive, particularly the glucose-lowering effects of GZR18, indicating strong future growth potential for the company [1] Group 1: Drug Development and Clinical Data - Ganli Pharmaceutical has leading R&D expenditures in the industry, with multiple key products gradually disclosing Phase II clinical data since 2025 [1] - GZR18 (Bofang Glutide) shows superior glucose-lowering effects in Type 2 diabetes patients, with HbA1c and weight reductions exceeding those of the Semaglutide group after 24 weeks of biweekly injections [1] - After 23 weeks of treatment, GZR18 subjects experienced an average weight loss of 6.92 kg, representing a 9.3% reduction from baseline [1] - The Phase II clinical data for GZR4, an insulin weekly formulation, indicates good safety and a more significant reduction in HbA1c compared to daily insulin degludec (Novo Nordisk) in patients with poor baseline insulin control after 16 weeks of treatment [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Valuation - The company anticipates a substantial 32.6% increase in the volume of its third-generation insulin agreements in the upcoming centralized procurement in 2024, alongside a rebound in product prices [1] - Leveraging the market coverage advantages gained from centralized procurement, the company's annual performance expectations are further solidified [1] - The company is assigned a 37x PE valuation for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 70.67 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in earnings per share, with projections of 1.91, 2.40, and 2.84 yuan for 2025-2027 respectively [3]. - The target price is set at 70.67 yuan based on a 37x PE valuation for 2025, reflecting a strong growth outlook [3]. - The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a forecasted increase in revenue from 2,608 million yuan in 2023 to 6,115 million yuan in 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.0% from 2025 to 2026 [5][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,608 million yuan in 2023 to 6,115 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.3%, 16.8%, 38.0%, 23.3%, and 18.0% respectively [5][12]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly, from 315 million yuan in 2023 to 2,014 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 155.4%, 100.3%, 115.5%, 25.4%, and 18.0% [5][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 340 million yuan in 2023 to 1,704 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 177.4%, 80.7%, 87.0%, 25.5%, and 18.1% [5][12]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 73.3% in 2023 to 75.8% in 2027, while net margin is expected to increase from 13.0% to 27.9% over the same period [5][12]. Clinical and Product Development Insights - The company has several promising products in its pipeline, including GZR18, which has shown superior glucose-lowering effects compared to competitors in clinical trials [10]. - GZR4, an insulin formulation, has also demonstrated significant efficacy in clinical trials, indicating strong potential for future revenue growth [10].