据追风交易台消息，高盛全球投资研究部分析师 Brian Singer 在23日的报告中写道："我们将2030年全 球数据中心用电需求相对2023年的增幅从175%上调到220%。"这次上调的重点落在美国：新增用电中 约六成来自美国，数据中心容量预测也被明显抬高。 报告给出的一个关键信号是：预算上修的速度太快。过去两个月，高盛分析师对2026-27年hyperscaler capex+R&D合计上修超过3000亿美元；并预计主要全球hyperscalers的capex+R&D到2029年将较2025年 翻倍。 光大证券认为，美国未来新增电源装机以气电为主，EIA预计当前项目规划下26-30年将新增气电装机 7/7/16/8/7GW，而其余稳定电源基本无新增，同时煤电机组将面临较大退役压力。截至2025年10月中 旬，自2023年1月起的美国数据中心储备项目规划容量已达到245GW，随着数据中心持续投运，峰值负 荷会水涨船高，单靠稳定电源将难以满足负荷需求。 从产业链角度看，其认为美国缺电问题带来电力系统可靠性需求提升，燃气轮机、电力设备、储能等方 向有望充分受益。具体包括： 1）燃气轮机：市场高景气背景下海外燃 ...

The surge in electricity demand in the world’s AI hotspots has prompted a comparable surge in the demand for reliable supply. That surge was not expected. There are not enough gas turbines to secure that supply. This means the AI revolution would either have to slow down, or the grid would have to increase its reliance on coal. Natural gas has in recent years been marketed as a so-called bridge fuel between coal and oil, on the one hand, and wind and solar, on the other. When it became clear that “bridg ...

| | 2000 Cycle | 2025 Cycle | | --- | --- | --- | | | Speculative: Market deregulation led investors | Concrete demand: Real-time electricity demand most | | Primary Demand Driver | to build power plants without guaranteed | notably Data Centers, but also underlying electricity | | | buyers. | consumption growth (EV, industrial) | | | U.S. Centric: Driven almost entirely by the | US driven, but relatively more globally diverse: US | | Regional Anchor | North American power market. | demand (DC driven) + Asi ...

Core Viewpoint - The gas turbine sector is experiencing rapid growth, driven by an increased demand for energy solutions in North America, particularly due to a projected power shortfall in data centers from 44 GW to 47 GW between 2025 and 2028, equivalent to the total electricity consumption of 9 Miami or 15 Philadelphia [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Gas turbine concept stocks surged, with Linde Co. hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Yingliu Co. rising over 9% [1] - Several companies, including Jereh and Boying Special Welding, have been the focus of intensive research by multiple brokerages and fund companies [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The gas turbine industry chain includes key components such as blades, casings, and combustion chambers, with domestic manufacturers like Yingliu Co., Haomai Technology, Feiwo Technology, and Wanze Co. making significant breakthroughs [2] - Jereh has entered the North American data center energy system integration market, providing complete power generation solutions and securing orders worth hundreds of millions from AI clients [2] - The current supply-demand tension is opening up overseas opportunities for Chinese gas turbine manufacturers like Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Harbin Electric [2] - The demand for heat recovery steam generators (HRSG) is also increasing alongside gas turbines, with companies like Boying Special Welding, Xizi Clean Energy, Binglun Environment, and Changbao Co. being noteworthy players [2]

Core Insights - GE Vernova exemplifies the positive sentiment shift in the clean energy transition and the increasing power demand driven by AI applications, showing strong performance in its latest results and a robust start to 2026 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - GE Vernova's stock increased by 11.1% in January and is up 12.9% in 2026, with over 100% growth in the past year, marking a significant recovery from its previous struggles as part of General Electric [2] - The company faced concerns at the end of the 2010s regarding its gas turbine equipment and services amid fears of a shift towards solar and wind power, which were perceived to limit growth prospects [2] Group 2: Demand and Orders - The demand for gas turbines has surged due to the challenges of renewable energy intermittency and the rising power needs for AI-driven data centers, leading to increased gas turbine orders measured in gigawatts (GW) [3] - Gas turbine orders are projected to grow significantly, with orders increasing from 9.8 GW in 2022 to 29.8 GW in 2025 [4] - The backlog of gas power equipment has risen from 33 GW at the end of 2024 to 40 GW at the end of 2025, with customers now signing slot reservation agreements (SRAs) to secure future production slots, growing from 29 GW to 43 GW in the same period [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - CEO Scott Strazik provided an optimistic forecast for 2026, expecting to reach approximately 100 GW under contract, with anticipated shipments in the high teens in gigawatts and new contracts exceeding 30 GW [6] - The substantial increase in the installed base of heavy-duty gas turbines is expected to lead to a significant rise in high-margin services revenue in the future [6]

This story was originally published on Utility Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Utility Dive newsletter. GE Vernova plans to close its acquisition of Prolec GE early next month, improving its competitive position in fast-growing international markets for low-voltage electrical distribution equipment and boosting its long-term financial outlook, the company said Wednesday. The pending acquisition was one of several pieces of good news GE Vernova shared in its fourth-qua ...

Supply Chain Challenges - The gas turbine industry is experiencing significant supply chain challenges, with backlogs extending years into the future and utilities struggling to secure dispatchable capacity [1] - Rotor forgings and hot-section blades are identified as primary bottlenecks, constrained by limited suppliers and complex manufacturing processes [1] - Some large frame turbines have been shipped without rotors or blades, with installation occurring later to maintain construction schedules [1] Vendor Qualification Issues - Qualifying new vendors is a lengthy process, heavily dependent on the original equipment manufacturer (OEM), supplier, and specific component [2] - Large forgings present particular challenges due to a limited number of global suppliers, many of whom serve multiple OEMs [2] - The qualification process for advanced machines requiring single-crystal blades or exotic materials is even more complex [2] Demand Drivers - Current demand for gas turbines is driven by multiple factors, including near-term needs from data centers and limited dispatchable power options due to increasing non-dispatchable resources on the grid [3] - New coal generation is no longer a viable option for most utilities, while natural gas supplies are more abundant, providing stability for gas-fired generation investment [3] - Data centers are driving acute short-term demand for dispatchable power, competing directly with utilities for small- and mid-sized turbines in the 30 MW to 100 MW range [3]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are shifting focus from technology to industrial sectors, leading to record levels in the industrial space [1] Industrial Sector Insights - The industrial sector is experiencing a positive shift, driven by stabilizing tariff policies, potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a hope for recovery in the ISM index, which has been in contraction for three years [3][4] - Recent performance in the industrial sector has been bolstered by companies linked to AI, with strong backlogs indicating continued demand [5][6] Company-Specific Highlights - Eaton is identified as a top pick for 2026, with approximately 20% exposure to data centers, reflecting strong growth potential [6] - GE Vernova is also favored, with significant order bookings extending into 2029 and beyond, providing visibility into future earnings growth [7][10] - The upside potential for GE Vernova is projected to be in the high single digits to low double digits through 2028, making it an attractive investment [8] Earnings and Valuation Considerations - The stock performance of GE Vernova has been influenced by robust gas turbine demand and visibility into gas power services, which are expected to drive earnings growth into the 2030s [10] - The recurring revenue from long-term service agreements associated with gas turbines enhances the investment case for GE Vernova [11][12] Underappreciated Companies - Dober Corporation, Illinois Toolworks, and Ingersoll Rand are highlighted as underappreciated companies with significant upside potential, potentially exceeding 20% in earnings and multiple rerating if a short cycle recovery occurs [13]

Core Insights - GE Vernova anticipates significant revenue growth in its electrification segment, projecting a 25% increase in 2025 and around 20% in 2026, driven by an electrification "supercycle" that will enhance electricity's share in final energy consumption [4][3]. Group 1: Revenue and Growth Projections - Expected revenue in 2028 is projected to be $52 billion, excluding the 50% Prolec GE acquisition [4]. - The electrification segment is expected to see a revenue growth of 25% in 2025 [3]. Group 2: Gas Turbine Orders and Production - GE Vernova's gas turbine backlog is expected to reach 80 GW by the end of 2025, with strong demand reflected in 18 GW of turbine orders booked in the current quarter [8][10]. - The company aims for an annualized turbine production of 20 GW by mid-2026, with potential to increase to 24 GW by mid-2028 [9]. Group 3: Market Demand and Acquisitions - The current quarter is anticipated to be the largest for electrical equipment orders directed to hyperscaler tech companies, with orders coming from Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Australia [5][6]. - The pending acquisition of Prolec GE for $5.3 billion is expected to enhance GE Vernova's market presence in lower-voltage electrical equipment across various geographies, with the deal on track to close in mid-2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - GE Vernova's stock price reached an all-time high due to an optimistic revenue outlook for 2026 and an increased stock buyback plan of $4 billion, driven by rising electricity demand from AI and data-intensive industries [2][12]. Group 1: Revenue and Growth Projections - GE Vernova expects organic revenue growth of 16% to 18% in its power business and 20% in its electrification business by 2026 [14]. - The company anticipates revenue to reach between $41 billion and $42 billion in 2026, reflecting low double-digit year-over-year growth [18]. - Revenue is projected to reach $52 billion by 2028, significantly up from the expected $36 billion to $37 billion in 2025 [16]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Since its spin-off from General Electric in March 2024, GE Vernova's stock has risen over 430%, with a year-to-date increase of more than 115% [16][12]. - At least six brokerages have raised their target prices for the stock, with JPMorgan setting a market-high target of $1,000, indicating nearly a 60% upside from a previous closing price of $625.30 [17][20]. Group 3: Operational and Financial Strength - The company has sold out all its gas turbine capacity through 2028, with expected visibility of orders extending to 2030 [2]. - GE Vernova's free cash flow is projected to reach $4.5 billion to $5 billion next year, up from an expected $3.5 billion to $4 billion in 2025 [14]. - Cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2028 is expected to total $22 billion, even after investing nearly $10 billion in capital expenditures and R&D [7]. Group 4: Market Demand and Competitive Position - The demand for advanced energy infrastructure is being driven by structural tailwinds such as AI-related electricity consumption, electrification initiatives, and global decarbonization efforts [16]. - The company is expected to benefit from a sustained energy investment cycle, with gas power driving revenue and profit growth [18][19]. - Strong demand for heavy gas turbines is particularly noted in North America and the Middle East, with significant growth in electrification orders driven by modernization efforts in Europe and rising demand in North America, the Middle East, and Asia [9][19].