The value of U.S. gold futures rose to a record high Friday, after the Trump administration tacked on “surprise” tariffs that some economists warned could disrupt global bullion trade. (Photo: AFP via Getty Images) https://t.co/CmGQN4qfsG https://t.co/5WymZEhzen ...

Core Viewpoint - US gold futures reached a record high amid uncertainty regarding potential country-specific import tariffs on commonly traded gold bars, which could significantly impact global supply chains for gold [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - December US gold futures increased by 1.2% to $3,494.10 per ounce after hitting a record of $3,534.10 earlier in the session [2][7]. - The spread between US gold futures and spot prices widened to $100, with spot gold dipping 0.1% to $3,394.26 per ounce but up 0.9% for the week [3]. Group 2: Implications of Tariffs - Analysts are awaiting further clarity on the potential US tariffs on gold deliveries, which could significantly affect Switzerland, the leading hub for gold refining and transit [4]. - The Swiss Precious Metals Association expressed concerns about the tariffs' implications for the gold industry and is in active discussions with stakeholders [6]. - Long-term effects of the new tariffs may benefit US refiners by transforming large 400-oz bars into retail units [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by U.S. President Trump's call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could further impact market dynamics and gold demand [1][5]. Price Movements - On July 28, spot gold prices fell to $3310 per ounce, marking the first drop since July 17 [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang seeing reductions in their gold prices [1][2]. - As of July 29, the price of gold jewelry from various brands has fallen below 1000 yuan per gram, with specific prices reported as follows: - Chow Sang Sang: 978 yuan per gram (down 12 yuan) - Lao Feng Xiang: 998 yuan per gram (down 2 yuan) - Others remained stable or saw minor changes [2][3]. Market Trends - The global gold price saw significant increases earlier in the year due to rising geopolitical tensions, with the London spot gold price rising 24.31% year-to-date as of June 30 [3]. - The average price of gold in the first half of 2025 was reported at $3066.59 per ounce, a 39.21% increase compared to the same period last year [3]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a similar trend, with Au9999 gold closing at 764.43 yuan per gram, up 24.50% year-to-date [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term speculative demand has weakened, long-term support from central bank purchases and financial investments may sustain gold prices [5]. - There is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates more than expected, which could lead to a further increase in gold prices by over 10% by the end of the year [5].

Core Insights - Gold prices have increased approximately 25% this year, leading to heightened demand and restrictions on purchases at retailers like Costco [2] - A recent HSBC survey indicates that gold allocations among affluent investors have more than doubled from 5% to 11% [2] Group 1: Investor Behavior - High-net-worth individuals are increasingly investing in gold due to its safe-haven appeal amid trade war anxieties and geopolitical tensions [3] - Investors in Asia and the Middle East traditionally allocate 5% to 10% of their portfolios to physical gold or gold-backed investments due to currency fluctuations and high inflation [4] - There is a noticeable increase in U.S. high-net-worth clients seeking to diversify from the depreciating U.S. dollar, finding gold investments simpler to understand [5] Group 2: Investment Options - Futures are popular for short-term gold trading, while physical gold and ETFs are preferred by long-term investors [6] - J.P. Morgan recommends unallocated gold investments, which have lower fees compared to ETFs or allocated bars, allowing clients to invest in fractions starting at $250,000 [7] - Some investors prefer to hold physical gold bars despite higher fees and minimums, reflecting a cautious approach as wealth increases [8]

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service called "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service called "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: On July 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.0% to 776.82 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.2% to 889 yuan/kilogram. Trump extended the tariff suspension to August 1 and pressured for talks. The new tariff letter's tax rate did not increase significantly, and the US said it would meet with Chinese officials next month. This eased tariff concerns and reduced safe - haven demand, which was bearish for precious metals from a macro perspective. Also, the US economic data was okay, the economic downturn risk in the second half of the year weakened, and the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, which also suppressed precious metals. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties, China's central bank's continuous gold - buying for 8 months, and weakening US inflation expectations with a September rate - cut expectation, gold prices were unlikely to decline significantly. So, in the short term, precious metals were expected to continue to fluctuate [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still had a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold - buying continued. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold remained unchanged. The strategy suggested continuous low - buying [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **15 - point prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver**: On July 9, 2025, London gold spot was 3293.35 dollars/ounce, down 1.3% from July 8; London silver spot was 36.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. COMEX gold was 3301.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.3%; CONEX silver was 36.80 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. AU2508 was 764.70 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG2508 was 8879.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.5%. AU (T + D) was 763.00 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG (T + D) was 8864.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.6% [3]. - **Price differences/ratios**: On July 9, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 1.7 yuan/gram, up - 8.6% from July 8; the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 15 yuan/kilogram, up 36.4%. The gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was 5.50 yuan/gram, up 11.3%; the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was - 574 yuan/kilogram, up - 1.9%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 86.12, down - 0.7%; the COMEX main ratio was 89.72, down - 0.6%. AU2512 - 2508 was 3.82 yuan/gram, down - 6.4%; AG2512 - 2508 was 40 yuan/kilogram, down - 14.9% [3]. Position Data - **ETF and COMEX non - commercial positions**: As of July 8, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 946.51 tons, down - 0.12% from July 7; the silver ETF - SLV was 14935.15145 tons, up 0.45%. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 258631 contracts, up 1.00%; non - commercial short positions were 56651 contracts, down - 7.24%; non - commercial net long positions were 201980 contracts, up 3.58%. CONEX silver non - commercial long positions were 82747 contracts, down - 2.06%; non - commercial short positions were 19347 contracts, down - 10.20%; non - commercial net long positions were 63400 contracts, up 0.72% [3]. Inventory Data - **Domestic and foreign inventories**: On July 9, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 21585.00 kilograms, up 0.13% from July 8; SHFE silver inventory was 1320909.00 kilograms, down - 1.04%. On July 8, COMEX gold inventory was 36876794 ounces, up 0.43% from July 7; COMEX silver inventory was 497932946 ounces, down - 0.07% [3]. Related Market Indexes - **July 9, 2025 data**: The dollar index was 97.49, up 0.01% from July 8; the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 3.90%, unchanged; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 0.06%. VIX was 16.81, down - 5.51%; the S&P 500 was 6225.52, up 0.45%; NYMEX crude oil was 68.18 dollars/barrel, down - 0.07%. The dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, up 0.38% [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but since late April, London gold has been trading in a range. For London gold, short - term support levels are at 3300 - 3320 and then 3200, with resistance at 3365 and then 3400. For London silver, support is at 36.4, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market was highly volatile. The U.S. stock market declined, while the U.S. Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index both rose. Bitcoin fell, crude oil rose, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals index declined. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3346.4 per ounce, up 0.1%; U.S. silver 2509 contract closed at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.39%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 771.3 yuan per gram, down 0.54%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8872 yuan per kilogram, down 0.5% [2]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 61.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.9%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 13.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 39.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 1.8%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 947.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14868.7 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9 tons to 1330.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 34.6 tons to 1323.2 tons in the week ending June 27 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's economic data is relatively light. The main focus is on the determination of U.S. tariff rates on other countries before the end of the U.S. reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9. Key events include the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision on Tuesday at 12:30, the Fed's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes on Thursday at 2:00, a speech by 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at 21:00 on Thursday, a speech by 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly on the U.S. economic outlook at 02:30 on Friday. Also, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will visit Japan this week [4]. 4. Precious Metal Price Data - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 771.3 yuan per gram, down 0.74%. SGX gold TD is at 767.8 yuan per gram, down 0.49%. CME gold main contract is at $3346.4 per ounce, up 0.31%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 8872 yuan per kilogram, down 0.53%. SGX silver TD is at 8860 yuan per kilogram, down 0.28%. CME silver main contract is at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.53%. SHFE - TD gold is at 3.5 yuan per gram, down 36.25%. SHFE - TD silver is at 12 yuan per kilogram, up 126.67%. CME gold - to - silver ratio is 90.5901, up 0.58% [6][7]. 5. Inventory and Position Data - SHFE gold inventory is 21456 kilograms, unchanged. CME gold inventory is 1142.0304 tons, down 0.19%. SHFE gold position is 175760 lots, up 0.41%. SPDR gold position is 947.66 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory is 1330.695 tons, down 0.68%. CME silver inventory is 15499.0707 tons, down 0.2%. SGX silver inventory is 1323.225 tons, down 2.55%. SHFE silver position is 229481 lots, down 8.47%. SLV silver position is 14868.735488 tons, unchanged [17][18]. 6. Other Market Data - The U.S. dollar index is at 97.5464, up 0.58%. The U.S. dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1741, up 0.76%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 44828.53 points, up 0.77%. WTI crude oil spot is at $66.5 per barrel, down 0.75%. LmeS copper 03 is at $9852 per ton, down 1%. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.35%, up 1.16%. The 10 - year U.S. real interest rate is 2.05%, up 1.49%. The 10 - 2 year U.S. Treasury yield spread is 0.47%, down 9.62% [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The potential extension of the tariff suspension period and the strong US June non - farm data may suppress gold prices, but the uncertainty of tariff policies and China's continuous gold reserve increase may support gold prices. Silver shows better resilience than gold due to improved risk appetite and reduced US economic downside risks, but may be relatively pressured if tariff policies are disturbed [4]. - In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks' gold - buying. It is recommended to allocate gold on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were all 0.00. AU2508 was 769.12 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8872.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) and AG (T + D) were 0.00 [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: London gold spot was 3342.39 dollars/ounce, London silver spot was 36.85 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3351.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 37.04 dollars/ounce, AU2508 was 774.88 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8919.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 772.60 yuan/gram, AG (T + D) was 8901.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Changes**: The price of domestic and foreign gold and silver decreased, with the largest decline of 100.0% [3]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 769.12 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 8872 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 2.28 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 18 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 33633.3%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 49188.9% [3]. 3. Position Data - **July 3, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, etc [3]. - **July 2, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 260586 contracts, etc [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, and COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 1.89% [3]. 4. Inventory Data - **July 7, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1330695.00 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 36785583 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 ounces [3]. - **July 4, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1339746 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 37048200 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 500183447 ounces [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.68%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.71%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.18% [3]. 5. Related Market Data - **July 7, 2025**: The US dollar index was 7.15 [4]. - **July 3, 2025**: The US dollar index was 97.12, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 16.38, the S&P 500 was 6279.35, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 67.18, and NYMEX crude oil was 1000 [4]. - **Market Data Changes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.04%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.16%, the VIX decreased by 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.52% [4]. 6. Market News and Analysis - **News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that trade negotiations between the US and the EU were progressing, and major news might be announced in the next two days. Trump and the US Treasury Secretary said that countries would start paying new tariffs on August 1. China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported to be 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month [4]. - **Analysis**: On July 7, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.54% to 771.31 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.5% to 8872 yuan/kilogram. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and silver prices are relatively resilient. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The medium- to long-term trend of precious metals is expected to be bullish. In the short term, with the need to wait for interest rate cuts, no escalation of geopolitical risks, and trade tariff negotiations not entering a sensitive period, the overall market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation. Short-term corrections are regarded as medium- to long-term buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - On Thursday, the precious metals market showed gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, down 0.61%; the US silver 2507 contract closed at $36.36 per ounce, down 1.5%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 0.49%; the SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 1.91% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 89.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 10.3%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 61.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 6.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 46.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 34.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point cut is 3.4% [3]. - In the long term, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 947.37 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14763 tons. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 14 tons to 1243 tons daily, and the SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - The Bank of England's interest rate meeting on Thursday kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% unchanged, but the divergence among voting members increased [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: The SHFE gold main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 4.18 yuan or 0.53%; the SGX gold TD closed at 777.44 yuan per gram, down 4.2 yuan or 0.54%; the CME gold main contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, up $1 or 0.03%. The SHFE silver main contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 226 yuan or 2.5%; the SGX silver TD closed at 8777 yuan per kilogram, down 212 yuan or 2.36%; the CME silver main contract closed at $36.76 per ounce, down $0.42 or 1.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: The SHFE gold inventory was 18168 kilograms, unchanged; the CME gold inventory was 1175.2202 tons, down 0.009 tons; the SHFE gold position was 161031 lots, down 1390 lots or 0.86%; the SPDR gold position was 947.37 tons, up 1.43 tons or 0.15%. The SHFE silver inventory was 1242.994 tons, up 13.962 tons or 1.14%; the CME silver inventory was 15419.0964 tons, down 26.3768 tons or 0.17%; the SGX silver inventory was 1378.875 tons, up 59.55 tons or 4.51%; the SHFE silver position was 387527 lots, down 58454 lots or 13.11%; the SLV silver position was 14763.000528 tons, up 87.6368 tons or 0.6% [13]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 98.7857, down 0.066 or 0.07%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.19, down 0.002 or 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42171.66 points, down 44.14 points or 0.1%; WTI crude oil spot was $75.6 per barrel, up $0.46 or 0.61%; LmeS copper 03 was $9619.5 per ton, down $31 or 0.32%; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.38%, down 0.01% or 0.23%; the 10-year US real interest rate was 2.07%, down 0.01% or 0.48%; the 10 - 2-year US Treasury yield spread was 0.44%, down 0.01% or 2.22% [17].