Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,333.50 per troy ounce Wednesday, nearly even with Tuesday’s closing price of $4,332.30. The price of gold rose in early trading. Gold’s one-year gain ties its last peak, achieved on Nov. 14. Traders may be betting on more interest rate cuts in 2026, after November’s shaky employment report. The unemployment rate was 4.6%, one-tenth of a point higher than the median forecast and six-tenths of a point higher than it was in January. Unemployment has not exceeded 4.5% since ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,237.50 per troy ounce Wednesday, nearly the same as Tuesday’s closing price of $4,236.20. The opening price is 2.8% below gold’s all-time high of $4,358, achieved in October. Gold’s price has remained fairly steady for the past week as traders await a Fed decision Wednesday, along with clues on the policymaking committee’s 2026 rate plan. A catch-up on delayed economic data will also shape 2026 expectations for the economy and the price of gold. A jobless claims report i ...

Asia Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan China: A more realistic picture of core CPI inflation after excluding gold The role of gold in the recent rise of core CPI inflation China has been mired in a moderate recession since late 2022, with CPI inflation at around 0% y-o-y and PPI inflation at around -2.5%. Recently, following the steady rise in core CPI inflation to 1.2% y-o-y in October from -0.25% in January-February, markets have been looking at whether China will finally escape t ...

Group 1: French Broadcasting Incident - The Paris headquarters of French news broadcaster BFMTV and RMC BFM TV were evacuated due to a bomb threat, leading to the suspension of live broadcasts [2][7] - Police, including bomb disposal units, were deployed to conduct thorough checks, and the alert was later cleared, allowing some staff to return [2][7] Group 2: Iraqi Sovereignty and External Influence - U.S. Special Envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, emphasized the importance of Iraq asserting its sovereignty by controlling all weapons and eliminating external interference, particularly from Iran [3][7] - Savaya stated that confining weapons to state authority is essential for Iraq to regain its influential role in the region [3][7] Group 3: Gold Prices and China's Jewelry Market - Gold prices surged past $4,000 an ounce in October 2025, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, creating a complex landscape for China's retail jewelry sector [4][7] - High gold prices have negatively impacted sales at major Chinese jewelry retailers, with a reported 52% decline in jewelry purchases during the second quarter of 2024 [5][7] - Despite the decline in jewelry sales, there was a 46% increase in sales of gold bars and coins in the first half of 2024 as consumers sought to hedge against economic uncertainty [5][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Economics in Asia, specifically focusing on China - **Key Metrics**: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends Core Insights 1. **CPI and PPI Trends**: - CPI inflation rose to 0.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October from -0.3% in September, exceeding expectations (Consensus: -0.1%; Nomura: 0.0%) [1][4] - PPI deflation improved to -2.1% y-o-y in October from -2.3% in September, aligning with market expectations (Consensus: -2.1%; Nomura: -2.3%) [1][9] 2. **Drivers of CPI Increase**: - The CPI increase was primarily driven by food prices due to lunar calendar effects and elevated gold prices contributing to core prices [1] - Sequential CPI inflation increased to 0.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) in October from 0.1% in September [4] 3. **PPI Deflation Factors**: - The improvement in PPI was influenced by rising global prices of non-ferrous metals, such as copper, while factory gate prices for durable goods remained low [1] - Sequential PPI inflation recorded at 0.1% m-o-m in October, marking the first positive reading in a year [9] 4. **Future Expectations**: - CPI is expected to rise to 0.6% y-o-y in November, supported by favorable base effects and food price increases [3] - PPI deflation is anticipated to ease to -1.9% y-o-y in November due to improvements in domestic commodity prices and global oil prices [3] 5. **Food Price Dynamics**: - Food inflation moderated, with negative inflation for pork, vegetables, eggs, and fruit narrowing in October [5][6] - Gasoline prices fell by 5.5% y-o-y in October, contributing to a drag on headline CPI [6] 6. **Service Sector Performance**: - Strong travel demand during the extended Golden Week holiday led to significant price increases in hotel accommodation, airline tickets, and tourism services [7] Additional Considerations 1. **Economic Challenges**: - The ongoing anti-involution campaign may not sufficiently reflate the economy due to demand-side headwinds and lack of mega stimulus programs [2] - Local governments' excessive investment in manufacturing may not be effectively contained, potentially leading to overcapacity issues [2] 2. **Investment Outlook**: - The recent stock market boom may provide new funding opportunities for corporations in sectors facing overcapacity [2] 3. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - PPI inflation in upstream sectors remained unchanged, while processing manufacturing sector deflation worsened slightly [10] - Notable improvements in PPI readings attributed to better regulation of production capacity in certain industries [11] Conclusion - The economic indicators suggest a cautious optimism with improvements in CPI and PPI, but underlying challenges remain that could hinder sustainable growth. The focus on food prices and service sector performance will be critical in the coming months as the economy navigates these complexities.

Core Insights - Gold futures opened at $3,939.50 per ounce, marking a 0.5% decrease from the previous day's close of $3,960.50, which is the lowest opening since October 28 [1] - The price of gold has fluctuated around $4,000 after a recent pullback from all-time highs, influenced by economic uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and a trade agreement with China [2] - Stock prices have declined recently, which may increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Current Price of Gold - The current opening price of gold futures is down 0.5% from the previous close, with a notable increase of 62.4% from one year ago as of October 17 [4][8] - The price changes over the past week, month, and year are as follows: -1.1% (week), +0.8% (month), and +43.6% (year) [8] Investment Options in Gold - Various methods to invest in gold include physical gold, gold mining stocks, gold ETFs, and gold futures [9] - Physical gold encompasses jewelry, bars, and coins, appealing to those who prefer tangible assets [6] - Gold mining stocks are subject to volatility due to their dependence on gold prices and geopolitical risks [11] - Gold ETFs track gold prices and can invest in physical gold, mining stocks, or futures, with SPDR Gold Shares being the largest [15] Advantages and Disadvantages of Investment Options - Physical gold offers easy accessibility and no ongoing fees but has risks of theft and lower liquidity [16] - Gold mining stocks provide greater liquidity and no storage requirements but come with higher volatility and no utility as a medium of exchange [17] - Gold ETFs have advantages like easy storage and liquidity but incur fund fees that can dilute returns [20] - Gold futures allow for leverage and convenience but carry high risk and complexity [21]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Gold & Jewelry - **Focus**: Impact of VAT reform on gold procurement and its implications for jewelry brands in China Core Insights and Arguments - **VAT Reform Impact**: A potential 7% increase in VAT for gold procurement from the Gold Exchange is expected to negatively impact margins and profits for jewelry brands, particularly those with high exposure to lower-tier cities and low-margin products [3][7] - **Company Performance**: - **Lao Feng Xiang (600612.SS)**: Expected to face a 97% impact on operating profit due to the VAT increase, with a gross profit margin (GPM) decline of 4.8 percentage points [3] - **Chow Tai Seng (002867.SZ)**: Anticipated to see a 25% decline in operating profit, with a GPM decrease of 2.8 percentage points [3] - **Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK)**: Projected to experience a 9% decline in operating profit and a GPM drop of 1.6 percentage points [3] - **Laopu (6181.HK)**: Expected to have a similar 9% decline in operating profit with a GPM decrease of 2.1 percentage points [3] - **Inventory Turnover**: Companies have varying inventory turnover rates, with Chow Tai Fook having a turnover of 7-9 months, while Lao Feng Xiang has a turnover of 2-3 months, indicating differing liquidity and operational efficiency [3] Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Price Sensitivity**: The demand for weight-based gold jewelry is expected to be more affected by price increases due to VAT, as consumers are more price-sensitive compared to fixed-price gold jewelry [7] - **Market Positioning**: Laopu and Chow Tai Fook are better positioned to handle the VAT increase due to their premium product focus and larger inventories, respectively [7] - **Future Projections**: Analysts project a 30% EPS CAGR for Chow Tai Fook over the fiscal years 2025-2027, reflecting a strategic shift towards stronger same-store profitability despite slower network expansion [8] - **Risks**: The industry faces risks from macroeconomic slowdowns, intense competition, and potential declines in disposable income, which could further pressure margins and demand [11][12][16] Valuation Methodology - **Chow Tai Seng**: Target 2026 P/E of 11x, reflecting a conservative outlook due to expected earnings decline [8] - **Chow Tai Fook**: Target based on a 19x F2027 P/E, indicating a premium valuation due to strategic changes [8] - **Lao Feng Xiang**: Target 2026 P/E of 11x, reflecting weakening demand and macroeconomic uncertainty [9] - **Laopu**: Target 2026 P/E of 23x, lower than peers due to anticipated growth deceleration [14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the China Gold & Jewelry industry, focusing on the implications of VAT reform and the performance outlook for key companies within the sector.

Summary of Laopu Gold Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer sector in China/Hong Kong - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb 98,944.6 million - **Current Stock Price**: HK$694.00 (as of October 24, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$1,010.00 - **52-Week Range**: HK$180.70 - HK$1,108.00 - **Shares Outstanding**: 156 million - **Average Daily Trading Value**: HK$707 million Key Takeaways - **Price Hikes**: Laopu Gold implemented its third round of product price increases in 2025, raising prices by an average of 25% on October 26, 2025. This follows earlier increases of approximately 10% in February and 12.5% in late August [8][5][1] - **Gold Price Correlation**: The price hikes are in response to a significant increase in gold prices, which rose by 21% since early September 2025. The price adjustments are aimed at offsetting margin pressures caused by this gold price rally [8][1] - **Demand Factors**: The company is monitoring demand elasticity closely, with key festivals, annual promotions in department stores, and new store openings expected to support demand [8][1] - **Earnings Visibility Concerns**: Investors have expressed concerns regarding earnings visibility, particularly in relation to volume demand, margins, and capital needs [8][1] Financial Performance - **Historical Price Increases**: - 2023: 3 times total +15% (gold price +17%) - 2024: 2 times total +20% (gold price +30%) - 2025 (to date): 1 time +25% (gold price +21%) [3][1] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: The company is valued using a P/E-based methodology, with a target P/E of 23x for 2026 estimates, resulting in a PEG ratio of 0.77x, which is lower than the average for consumer stocks. This is justified by the volatility of gold prices and anticipated macroeconomic weakness [9][1] - **Upside Risks**: - More proactive consumption-related policy support - Faster-than-expected same-store sales growth - Continued gold price rally [11][1] - **Downside Risks**: - Delays in consumption-related policy support - Weaker-than-expected demand trends due to a sharp correction in gold prices - Significant slowdown in sales growth [11][1] Conclusion Laopu Gold is actively adjusting its pricing strategy in response to fluctuating gold prices while navigating investor concerns about demand and earnings visibility. The company's proactive approach to pricing and demand management, alongside a cautious outlook on macroeconomic conditions, positions it for potential growth despite inherent risks in the market.

Core Insights - The rising gold prices are prompting jewelers to reconsider their material choices, with some shifting from 18-karat to 14-karat gold or exploring gold-plated options to maintain brand aesthetics while managing costs [1][2][3] - Major retailers like Mejuri, Pandora, and Signet are adapting their strategies to cope with high gold prices, indicating a broader industry trend towards alternative manufacturing methods and supply chain optimization [2][3] - The current economic climate, marked by high inflation and significant debt levels, has led investment experts to recommend holding gold as a hedge, with some suggesting a 15% allocation in investment portfolios [3][4] Industry Trends - Jewelers are facing challenges due to soaring gold prices, leading to strategic shifts towards less expensive materials or alternative products [2][5] - The price of silver has also seen a significant increase, rising from approximately $40 per ounce in early September to over $54 in mid-October, indicating a broader trend in precious metals [5] - Interest in demi-fine jewelry is growing as consumers seek quality alternatives to solid gold at lower price points, reflecting changing consumer preferences in the jewelry market [5] Investment Opportunities - Investors have various avenues for gold investment, including physical assets, gold ETFs, mutual funds, and gold mining shares, each with distinct advantages and considerations [8][10][11][12] - Gold IRAs are popular for their tax advantages and inflation hedging, although they come with higher fees and lower liquidity [8] - Direct investment in physical gold can be challenging due to high entry costs and storage fees, making indirect investments more appealing for average investors [13]

Core Insights - The gold retail market in Tai'an has experienced a significant price drop, with many brands reducing their prices to below 1,000 yuan per gram [1][5] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a substantial drop in the spot gold price, which fell by 6.3% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013 [5] Market Trends - There has been an increase in customer inquiries at gold stores, although investors are generally adopting a wait-and-see approach, with consumers preferring to purchase based on immediate needs rather than speculative buying [3] - The price adjustments in the gold market reflect broader trends influenced by international market fluctuations and consumer behavior [1][5]