Core Viewpoint - The future performance of Nvidia may be significantly impacted by its past performance, with analysts remaining bullish despite high valuation metrics like a price-to-earnings ratio of up to 50 times [4][9]. Revenue Growth and Earnings - Nvidia's revenue is projected to grow from $16.6 billion in 2021 to $130.5 billion by fiscal year 2025, with earnings per share increasing from $0.17 to $2.94 during the same period [6]. - Analysts expect Nvidia's earnings per share to grow by 43% in fiscal year 2026 and by 34% in fiscal year 2027, leading to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 26.6 by the end of fiscal year 2027 [8]. Market Position and Ecosystem - Over 4 million developers rely on Nvidia's CUDA software platform, which has been in use for 15 years, creating a high switching cost for users [7]. - Nvidia's data center revenue reached $39.1 billion in Q1 2026, a 73% year-over-year increase, despite losing approximately $2.5 billion in revenue due to export restrictions [7]. Competitive Threats - Google poses a significant risk to Nvidia, particularly with its Cloud TPU, which offers a streamlined, one-stop solution for AI model training and inference [11][13]. - Although Google's TPU sales are estimated to be between $6 billion and $9 billion in 2024, this is still a small fraction of Nvidia's projected $115.3 billion data center revenue for fiscal year 2025 [15]. Revenue Concentration and Future Outlook - In Q1 2026, four customers contributed to 54% of Nvidia's total revenue, indicating a high concentration risk [16]. - Nvidia's revenue growth is expected to slow down, with projections indicating a decline to 15% to 20% in the coming years, as the market for training foundational models may saturate [16][18].