SAF 绿色航空煤油专家 20251228 摘要 欧洲减碳目标推动 HVO 需求，预计 2025 年供应紧张，2026 年缺口或 扩大，政策刺激 HVO 需求，但 SaaS 因成本较高需再加工，价格不具优 势，部分时段 HVO 价格甚至高于柴油。 当前 SaaS 价格约为 2,260 美元/吨，HVO 约为 2,600 美元/吨，价格波 动受欧盟政策和基础设施影响，年初价格低迷，三四季度因采购需求飙 升，年末需求减少价格回落。 英国 2025 年已实施 2%的 SAAS 添加比例，2026 年将提高至 2.3%， 新加坡计划通过乘客收费购买 SAAS，具体实施时间待定，德国取消双 倍碳积分将增加 HVO 需求，荷兰和法国或跟进。 预计 2026 年全球生物燃料消耗量增加 500 万吨，欧盟需求增长 150- 200 万吨，欧洲积极发展 HVO 产业链，通过政策和反倾销措施保护本 地产业。 中国 SAF 出口价格维持在 2,150 美元/吨左右，国内生产成本约为 1,850 美元/吨，采用海外工艺包的企业收率较高，预处理装置和催化剂 选择影响生产效率和成本。 Q&A 2025 年和 2026 年在 SaaS 领 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in overseas HVO/SAF prices, with European prices rising by 13.97% and 11.60% respectively since the lowest points in Q2 2025, driven by strong seasonal demand [5] - The EU is gradually implementing a 2% SAF blending policy, which is expected to enhance the demand for SAF and subsequently increase the price of UCO, benefiting the entire UCO-HVO/SAF industry chain [6] - The demand for UCO is anticipated to grow steadily due to the increasing SAF demand, with domestic UCO prices rising as a result of heightened procurement levels from SAF and biodiesel plants [7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report indicates a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, with a maintained investment rating [1] - A notable trend is the increase in UCO prices in China, with prices for gutter oil and waste oil rising by 3.31% and 2.31% respectively since Q2 2025 [5] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the EU's measures to support the SAF market, including subsidies for airlines purchasing sustainable aviation fuel, which is expected to drive up costs and demand [6] - The report notes that China's SAF production costs are lower due to abundant and cheaper UCO resources, positioning China to capture a significant market share in the EU [6] Company Insights - The report provides a table of companies involved in HVO/SAF production, highlighting their planned capacities and market valuations, with 嘉澳环保 leading with a planned capacity of 740,000 tons [10] - The report identifies key beneficiaries of the SAF demand increase, including 嘉澳环保, 海新能科, 卓越新能, and 鹏鹞环保 [6][10]