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2026年，央企重大重组的"第一单"在能源领域正式落地。 中国石油化工集团有限公司预计，"十五五"期间我国航空燃料需求年均增长4%左右，2030年将达5000 万吨左右、2040年约为7500万吨。 国务院国资委8日发布消息，经报国务院批准，中国石油化工集团有限公司与中国航空油料集团有限公 司实施重组。 中国石油化工集团有限公司是全球第一大炼油公司和我国第一大航油生产商，中国航空油料集团有限公 司是亚洲最大的航油服务企业。两家"巨无霸"合并，引发业内高度关注。 "中国石油化工集团有限公司与中国航空油料集团有限公司重组的核心战略意义，在于打造全链条一体 化航油供应体系，提升能源安全、国际竞争力与绿色转型能力，同时优化国有资本布局。"对外经济贸 易大学中国国际碳中和经济研究院执行院长、中国石油流通协会副监事长兼碳中和研究院院长董秀成对 上证报记者表示。 打造世界一流航空能源供应商 作为能源化工与航空油料供应两大领域的龙头企业，中国石油化工集团有限公司与中国航空油料集团有 限公司分别在各自产业链上占据核心地位。 中国石油化工集团有限公司是上下游、产供销、内外贸一体化特大型能源化工集团公司，是中国最大的 成品油和石化 ...

1月4日至1月7日，韩国总统李在明对中国进行国事访问，这是李在明就任总统后首次访华，也是韩国总统时隔6年再次访华，为中韩关系发展注入重要动 力。访问期间，中韩两国元首举行会谈，共同见证多项合作文件签署。 此次新能源企业聚焦绿色能源贸易的系列签约，是中韩战略合作伙伴关系提质升级的具体体现，既精准契合双方能源转型需求，也为区域绿色能源贸易体系 构建与供应链稳定提供了重要支撑。 Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources ★ : 11 12 le D 论坛期间，以绿色能源贸易为核心的中韩企业合作签约成为全场焦点。其中，北京中基新能科技发展有限公司与Aetherion inc.（韩国）公司签署《总业务代 理协议》，协议以绿醇、绿氨、SAF（可持续航空燃料）等绿色氢基能源产品贸易为核心，约定建立长期稳定的采购与供应机制，深化上下游产业协同联 动，加速绿色氢基能源产品的全球化流通，共同推进能源绿色转型与气候变化应对进程。 同期，吉电股份与Aetherion inc.（韩国）签署《绿色燃料采购谅解备忘录》。作为全球绿色氢基能源产业发展的领军企业之一，吉电股份将与韩国合作企业 在绿色氢 ...

核心观点 石化化工行业2026年1月投资观点： 石化化工是周期性行业，现阶段石化化工行业"内卷式"竞争问题突出，低质量、同质化的无序竞争导致 企业普遍面临增产不增利困境，全行业营业收入利润率从2021年的8.03%持续降至2024年的4.85%， 2025年以来部分子行业率先复苏，前三季度行业归母净利润同比增长10.56%，行业盈利逐渐企稳复 苏。 供给端：化学原料及化学制品制造业投资固定资产累计投资额于2025年6月开始转负，SW基础化工行业 及多个细分子行业的资本开支连续多个季度转负，此轮行业扩产周期接近尾声；9月"石化化工行业稳增 长"政策正式出台，旨在治理企业低价无序竞争、推动落后产能有序退出，有机硅、己内酰胺、PTA聚 酯等子行业相继响应"反内卷"出台或正在制定行业指导文件。我们认为，后续将会看到更多化工产品新 产能审批趋严、落后产能（如规模小、能耗高、污染大）将加速出清，石化化工行业供给过剩问题将得 到有效缓解。 需求端：传统需求方面，伴随着全球央行进入降息周期及暂停缩表，在货币政策及财政政策刺激下我们 看好石化化工传统需求有望实现温和复苏；新兴需求方面，从新能源、SAF到AI，关键化学品材料始终 ...

在江苏连云港，由霍尼韦尔助力嘉澳环保打造的SAF生产基地，以地沟油等废弃油脂为"食"、采用霍尼 韦尔的Ecofining技术的项目已实现规模量产。该基地以每日1万桶(折合年产能约50万吨)的加工能力， 成为中国SAF产业大步迈向规模化商业运营新阶段的标杆案例。 近日，《中国化工报》记者采访了项目双方以及行业相关人士，他们表示，在全球航空业脱碳的迫切呼 声与中国"双碳"战略的坚定指引下，该项目的落成像一枚关键棋子，精准落于政策与市场双重机遇交汇 的棋盘上，不仅改写着中国绿色航空能源的版图，更代表"中国制造"在全球绿色能源供应链中抢占了关 键位置。 市场可期：政策与市场双轮驱动 当前，全球航空业正面临前所未有的碳减排压力。SAF作为目前最具现实可行性的脱碳路径，其全生命 周期碳排放可比传统航油降低高达80%。 从国际市场来看，在政策法规驱动下，需求呈爆发式增长。2025年是欧盟SAF强制添加的"元年"，要求 航空燃料中必须掺混2%的SAF，并计划在2030年将比例提升至6%。这一政策引导了市场需求。据分 析，2025年欧洲SAF消费量预计达190万吨，但其自身产能仅约100万吨，存在近半的供应缺口。供需失 衡推动 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The report indicates that economic downward pressure may increase, leading to a higher likelihood of policy interest rate cuts in the future. The central bank governor emphasized the need for appropriate monetary policy adjustments to support economic growth and price stability [6][9]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has returned to positive territory year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a reduced decline. However, investment and consumption growth rates have significantly decreased, reinforcing the expectation of interest rate cuts [6][9]. - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the bond market, particularly noting that the success rate of bullish positions in December has been historically high since 2018 [6][9]. Group 2: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market - 2025 marks the first year that European countries will enforce mandatory SAF blending requirements, with demand primarily driven by the EU and the UK. The UK has achieved a compliance rate of 70% from January to October 2025, with high demand expected to continue through the end of the year [10][11]. - Due to high profitability of HVO products in Europe, the release of SAF production capacity has been limited, resulting in a tight supply-demand balance that is expected to push SAF prices higher [10][11]. - The report suggests monitoring SAF production companies, especially those that have received export whitelist status, such as Hainan New Energy Technology, Jiaao Environmental Protection, and Zhuoyue New Energy [12][13]. Group 3: Robotics Industry - Recent financing activities in the robotics sector include Lingxin Qiaoshou completing a multi-million RMB A+ round and Blue Dot Touch announcing over 100 million RMB in C round financing. The government is planning to establish a regulatory framework for the humanoid robotics industry [15][16]. - The report highlights the importance of six-dimensional force sensors in humanoid robots, which are crucial for real-time precision control. The market for these sensors is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating over 460,000 units sold by 2030 [15][16]. - The report identifies key companies in the humanoid robotics supply chain, including Kaiter Co. and Dingzhi Technology, which are making advancements in sensor technology and robotics applications [15][16]. Group 4: JiZhi Co. (集智股份) Analysis - JiZhi Co. has announced a stock incentive plan aimed at core employees, with a significant portion of the stock allocation directed towards key personnel rather than executives, reflecting a commitment to fostering innovation and growth [21][22]. - The company is focusing on expanding into high-tech fields such as deep-sea listening, aerospace, and robotics, which are at critical stages of development. This alignment of employee interests with company growth is seen as strategically significant [22][23]. - The report forecasts substantial growth in JiZhi Co.'s net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected increases of 179.47%, 82.07%, and 75.41% respectively, indicating strong potential for future performance [23].

Core Insights - The European Union (EU) has committed to investing at least €3.3 billion over the next two years to support the decarbonization of the aviation and shipping industries, focusing on the development of renewable and low-carbon fuel production systems [1][3] - The demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is primarily driven by policy, with a target of 2% SAF blending by 2025 and a long-term goal of 70% by 2050 [1][2] - The price of high-end SAF in China has increased by 47.22% from $1,800/ton at the beginning of the year to $2,650/ton as of November 10 [1][7] Industry Demand and Policy - The EU has established comprehensive SAF application targets and carbon reduction goals, with the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation mandating a 2% SAF blending requirement starting in 2025 [2] - IATA projects that SAF demand will rise significantly from approximately 1 million tons in 2024 to 18 million tons by 2030, reaching 350 million tons by 2050 [2] - By 2035, the EU will require about 20 million tons of sustainable alternative fuels, necessitating an investment of approximately €100 billion to meet this demand [2] Investment and Market Confidence - The EU's Sustainable Transport Investment Plan aims to reduce carbon emissions from transportation by 90% by 2050, requiring an investment of around €100 billion, with 60% allocated to aviation fuels [3][4] - The plan includes various funding initiatives, such as €2 billion for developing sustainable alternative fuels and €300 million from the European Hydrogen Bank to support sustainable aviation and shipping fuels [3][4] Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The high cost of SAF compared to traditional jet fuel has led to a general reluctance among airlines to adopt SAF, with major airlines requesting more time to comply with SAF blending mandates [5][6] - As of November 10, the average price of used cooking oil (UCO) in China was 6,448 yuan/ton, reflecting a 17.24% increase from the beginning of the year, driven by the scarcity of SAF raw materials [7] - Neste, a leading renewable fuel company, reported a significant increase in its third-quarter revenue and production, with total renewable fuel production reaching 113.3 million tons and EBITDA growing over 150% year-on-year [8] Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Jiaao Environmental Protection and Zhuoyue New Energy are highlighted as key players in the SAF market, with Jiaao Environmental Protection being a leading domestic SAF producer with a capacity of 500,000 tons [9]

Summary of Palm Oil Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Palm Oil - **Key Countries**: Indonesia, Malaysia Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Indonesia's Palm Oil Production Forecast**: JAPKI predicts a 10% increase in Indonesia's palm oil production by 2025, but actual production may decrease by 2%-3% due to government land reclamation of illegally occupied areas, affecting 4.5 million hectares, or 1/6 of total planting area [1][2][7] 2. **Malaysia's Market Analysis**: Malaysia's production is only 1/5 of Indonesia's, limited by labor shortages and rising fertilizer costs. Monthly inventory fluctuates around 500,000 tons, insufficient to impact the market significantly [1][3][7] 3. **Biodiesel Policy Driving Demand**: Indonesia's B40 and B50 biodiesel initiatives are expected to significantly boost palm oil demand. Rising soybean oil prices in the US and Argentina are leading countries like India and China to switch to palm oil, resulting in a slight increase in recent inventories [1][4][7] 4. **Aging Palm Trees Increasing Supply Pressure**: Malaysia faces challenges with aging palm trees, which require frequent replacement to maintain stable supply. The slow replacement rate exacerbates supply issues [1][6][7] 5. **Global Biodiesel Development Trends**: While US biodiesel policies are cooling, there remains potential for demand growth. China is actively developing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), with a target to increase SAF blending to 5% within three years, supporting oil prices [1][12][14] Additional Important Insights 1. **Supply Changes in Indonesia and Malaysia**: Indonesia's palm oil production is crucial, with official figures indicating an annual output of 18-20 million tons. However, the transparency of these figures is low, and the government's land reclamation efforts are expected to significantly impact production [2][8] 2. **B50 Policy Status**: The B50 policy in Indonesia has completed testing but may face delays due to funding and technical issues. The new president is optimistic about advancing this policy [9][10] 3. **US Biodiesel Policy Impact**: Recent cooling in US biodiesel policies has created uncertainty, but demand is still expected to grow, with a projected 23% increase in soybean oil usage for biodiesel this summer [11] 4. **China's SAF Developments**: China is increasing its SAF production capacity, which will require more raw materials, thereby supporting overall oil prices [12][17] 5. **Malaysia's Export Adjustments**: Malaysia is reducing palm oil exports to meet domestic aviation fuel needs, tightening supply further [13][27] 6. **Global Biodiesel Trends**: Countries worldwide are pushing biodiesel projects, which will support palm oil demand. Chinese companies are pre-purchasing supplies to mitigate future shortages [27] Conclusion - The palm oil market is expected to tighten by 2025 due to supply constraints in Indonesia and Malaysia, while demand remains strong driven by biodiesel policies. Investment opportunities exist, but close monitoring of policy changes and execution is essential [7][22]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beijing Hai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (Hai New Energy), has shown significant improvement in its financial performance in Q3 2025, driven by its bioenergy segment and strategic initiatives in supply chain and technology [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 958 million yuan, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 63.82% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 93.33 million yuan, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 1.942 billion yuan, with a net profit of 57.95 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [3]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 29.81% by the end of September 2025, down from 38.99% at the end of 2024, reflecting better financial health [3]. Group 2: Bioenergy Segment Growth - The bioenergy sector has become the main growth driver, with effective strategies to expand non-EU customer bases and fulfill long-term contracts for HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) [4]. - The company has optimized its production processes, achieving better operational parameters than design specifications, which has led to reduced processing costs and enhanced risk resilience [4]. - Supply chain improvements have been made through long-term agreements with key suppliers, enhancing quality control and operational management [4]. Group 3: Accounts Receivable Management - The company has significantly reduced accounts receivable, with accounts receivable at 503 million yuan, down by 27 million yuan from the previous year [5]. - Other receivables decreased dramatically from 1.349 billion yuan to 181 million yuan, a reduction of 1.168 billion yuan, indicating improved cash flow management [5]. - Measures such as enhanced customer credit tracking and legal actions have been implemented to improve collection efficiency [5]. Group 4: SAF Market Trends - The price of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has been on the rise, reaching an offshore average of 2,854 USD per ton as of October 31, driven by regulatory policies and increased demand [6]. - The EU's subsidy plans are expected to accelerate SAF adoption, with strong order volumes anticipated for Q4 2025 across the industry [6]. - The company plans to closely monitor SAF policy developments and actively expand its domestic and international markets [6]. Group 5: Future Development Plans - The company aims to focus on green development over the next three years, aspiring to become a "world-class green energy supplier" and a leader in bioenergy innovation [7]. - Strategic initiatives will include enhancing bioenergy core operations and refining the catalytic purification segment to support long-term growth [8]. - The company will invest in R&D to maintain a leading technological position in both bioenergy and catalytic purification sectors [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The biofuel industry is experiencing rapid capacity expansion in China, with total capacity reaching 1.16 million tons, primarily using waste oils as raw materials [1][2] - The competition in the biofuel sector may intensify, but companies with technological and customer advantages, such as Jiaao Environmental, are expected to remain competitive [1][2] Key Insights on Biofuels - The price of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has been on a continuous rise since April 2025, with the European FOB high price reaching $2,790 per ton, marking an increase of approximately 47% year-to-date [1][3][4] - In contrast, the price increase for the raw material Used Cooking Oil (UCO) was only 9.4%, indicating that SAF manufacturers like Jiaao Environmental may see significant profit improvements in Q4 2025 [4] Export Trends - China's biodiesel exports saw a year-on-year decline of 27.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, but there was a marginal improvement in Q3 with a 15% year-on-year increase and a 39% quarter-on-quarter increase [1][5] - The average export price for biodiesel in the first three quarters was $1,123 per ton, reflecting a 5.2% increase year-on-year [5] - The export market structure for biodiesel is shifting, with increased export proportions to Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong due to EU anti-dumping tariffs and rising demand for marine fuel blending in Southeast Asia [1][6] UCO Market Performance - In Q3 2025, China's UCO export volume decreased by 11% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and increased domestic SAF production [1][7] - The average export price for UCO in Q3 was $1,082 per ton, which is a 20% year-on-year increase [7] Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - Multiple countries, including the EU, UK, and Singapore, are implementing or planning to implement mandatory blending policies for SAF, which is expected to drive global demand for SAF and its raw materials like UCO [1][8] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in China has proposed a minimum renewable energy consumption target, indicating stronger domestic promotion of SAF, which provides a positive outlook for core listed companies in the sector [1][9] Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on processing companies like Jiaao Environmental and Zhuoyue New Energy, as well as upstream raw material suppliers like Shanhai Environmental and Langkun Technology, due to expected improvements in profitability in Q4 2025 [1][10]