在技术层面，SAF的多条技术路线正同步发展。根据相关标准，目前已有8条认证的技术路线，可利用 不同代际的生物基、废弃物或气体原料生产SAF。有业内人士认为，当前油脂加氢路线虽成熟，但原料 供应有限，未来需转向农林废弃物气化、废塑料热解及二氧化碳加氢等路径。 "SAF的成本是传统航煤的2至5倍，而对于像e-SAF这样的新技术，成本预计将是传统航空燃料的7至8 倍。"日前，国际航空运输协会能源转型总监Hemant Mistry在接受证券时报记者采访时介绍。 全球航空业正在致力于绿色突围，SAF（可持续航空燃料）作为减排主要可行技术路线，其被产业提升 到空前的重视程度。根据国际航协的预测，到2050年，SAF将承担航空业65%以上的减排贡献。不过如 何填平成本差距，也是摆在产业面前的难题。 原料供应不足是制约SAF产业规模化发展的重要瓶颈之一。目前，HEFA路线虽成熟，但原料供应有 限。有统计数据显示，中国拥有全球最大的废弃油脂资源，但产能仅满足全球千分之二的需求。 Mistry认为，SAF作为新兴产业必须得到技术研发推动、金融支持以及鼓励建立可持续供应链的政策支 持，才能打造新型能源市场。有必要尽快明确"难减排行 ...

中信证券表示，欧洲SAF价格持续上涨，目前已突破2700美元/吨。欧洲提出高额补贴计划，强制添加 政策的执行力度或加强，预计SAF需求将爆发。在2025年上半年欧洲SAF-HVO价格倒挂，国内新增供 给和出口许可证审批进度不及预期，近期在国内外主要SAF工厂密集检修等多因素共同作用下，SAF供 应紧张局面或将延续。此外，欧盟对美国SAF施加反倾销税，对中国生产商形成利好。在SAF的产业化 趋势逐渐明确的背景下，建议关注行业内主要玩家。 据百川盈孚消息，2025年9月22日，SAF(可持续航空燃料)欧洲FOB主流价已涨至2705美元，季度同比增 长21%；同期，SAF中国FOB主流价涨至2400美元，季度同比增长20%。欧洲SAF价格上涨或与完成强 制添加而补库有关。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Pujiang Innovation Forum emphasizes the leadership of renewable energy in the energy revolution, focusing on sustainable aviation fuel, green methanol, and green ammonia as key areas for technological innovation and industrial development in Shanghai [1] Group 1: Technological Innovation and Industry Development - Shanghai is systematically promoting disruptive technological innovation and future industrial system construction through strategic initiatives led by the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission [1] - The commission is facilitating collaborative research and development efforts among academia and industry, including a pilot project for green methanol industrialization led by a team from East China University of Science and Technology [1] - The establishment of a SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industrial chain is being spearheaded by the airport group, with a focus on accelerating the development of supporting technologies such as electro-synthetic fuels and carbon capture through a "racehorse system" [1] Group 2: Green Fuel Technology and Applications - The Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission is working to cultivate new green and low-carbon productive forces by focusing on next-generation nuclear energy and green fuel technologies [1] - Key technological breakthroughs are being pursued in areas such as large-scale offshore wind power, perovskite batteries, and solid-state batteries [1] - Major demonstration projects are being developed, including new power systems and deep-sea energy islands, to comprehensively promote energy structure optimization and industrial upgrading [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, Jiaao Environ, is positioned as a leader in the bioplastics and biomass energy sectors, with a significant focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production [7][14]. - The SAF market is expected to experience substantial growth due to regulatory changes in the EU, which mandates a minimum blending ratio for SAF in aviation fuel [14][15]. - The company has successfully established strategic partnerships with major players like BP and China Aviation Oil, enhancing its market position and distribution channels [24][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The current stock price is 71.20 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 5,470 million CNY [1][4]. - The company has shown a significant increase in revenue, with a 220.66% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025 [3][7]. Financial Data - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 4,074 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 219.9% [4][31]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 169 million CNY, representing a 146.1% increase compared to the previous year [4][32]. Business Segments - The company has a diversified revenue stream, with 71.86% of its income coming from biomass energy, primarily SAF, while environmental plasticizers contribute 26.19% [13][7]. - The SAF production capacity is set to expand from 500,000 tons to 1 million tons annually, positioning the company as the largest SAF producer in China [13][14]. Strategic Developments - The company has received various certifications, including ISCC and DDC, allowing it to export SAF products legally [23][24]. - The strategic partnership with BP and China Aviation Oil is expected to secure significant distribution channels for the company's SAF products [24][23]. Profitability Outlook - The report anticipates a substantial improvement in profitability, with net profits projected to reach 7.55 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a 76.2% increase from 2026 [32][33]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.20 CNY, with a significant increase in subsequent years [32][33].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and shipping industries are at a critical juncture for green transformation, with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), green methanol, and green ammonia emerging as key solutions to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change [5][6]. SAF Market - The global SAF market is projected to reach a demand of 18.35 million tons by 2030, with a market size of approximately 126 billion yuan, as over 60 airlines commit to using 10% SAF by 2030 [8]. - Current global SAF supply is limited, with an expected production of 2 million tons by 2025, which would only meet 0.7% of aviation fuel usage [8][14]. - The production cost of SAF is currently 3 to 6 times that of traditional jet fuel, posing a significant barrier to large-scale adoption [14]. Technology Pathways - The most mature SAF production technology is the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) route, which accounts for 98% of current capacity, but is limited by the availability of feedstock [10]. - Other emerging technologies include Gasification + Fischer-Tropsch (G+FT) and Power-to-Liquid (PtL), which are expected to play a larger role in the future [10][12]. Global Market Dynamics - Europe and North America are the primary markets for SAF, with over half of the global SAF production facilities located there [15]. - Asia is expected to become a key export hub due to its low-cost feedstock advantages, with 46% of global SAF capacity located in the region [15]. Domestic Landscape - China has established an annual SAF production capacity of approximately 1.1 million tons, primarily through the HEFA route, with significant projects concentrated in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Sichuan [16][17]. - By mid-2025, China is projected to have 45 SAF projects with a total capacity exceeding 9.5 million tons per year [16]. Green Methanol Market - Green methanol is defined by its production from renewable resources, with the primary production methods being biomass gasification and electrolysis [21][24]. - Current production costs for green methanol range from 3,500 to 5,000 yuan per ton, significantly higher than traditional methanol [24]. Global and Domestic Projects - Globally, there are over 220 renewable methanol projects, with a total planned capacity of 37.1 million tons by 2030 [27][29]. - In China, nearly 150 green methanol projects are planned, with a total capacity exceeding 56.8 million tons, primarily located in Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions [29]. Green Ammonia Market - Green ammonia is produced from green hydrogen and nitrogen, with the production process involving established technologies for nitrogen extraction and ammonia synthesis [33][36]. - The cost of green ammonia is heavily influenced by electricity prices, with a significant cost reduction potential if surplus renewable energy is utilized [36]. Domestic Development - As of mid-2025, China has over 100 planned green ammonia projects with a total capacity exceeding 2.05 million tons, primarily located in the Northwest and Northeast regions [38][40]. Investment Opportunities - The SAF, green methanol, and green ammonia sectors are at a pivotal growth stage, with technological breakthroughs and policy support being crucial for overcoming current challenges [41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is a key strategic player in the renewable energy sector under the Shankao Group, focusing on the green transformation of its business model, particularly in kitchen waste treatment and heating [2][3]. - The company has returned to a growth trajectory since 2021, with significant revenue increases following its strategic pivot towards environmental and green energy sectors [4][19]. - The demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to grow significantly, driven by global carbon reduction initiatives, positioning the company favorably within this expanding market [8][58]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established as Sichuan Meiya Silk (Group) Co., Ltd., has undergone multiple ownership changes and strategic pivots, ultimately focusing on renewable energy and environmental services [3][12]. - Following a major restructuring in 2020, the company shifted its focus to kitchen waste resource utilization, becoming the only listed company in China primarily engaged in this sector [3][19]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 827 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 138.33% [4][19]. - In 2024, despite a reduction in trading volume, the company achieved a 47.3% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [21]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 434 million yuan, reflecting a 4.21% year-on-year growth, with net profit reaching 28.27 million yuan, up 222.23% [21][30]. Market Dynamics - Used cooking oil (UCO) is a critical raw material for SAF, with China accounting for over 60% of global UCO supply, highlighting its strategic importance in the SAF production chain [5][45]. - The global demand for SAF is projected to increase significantly, with various countries implementing policies to boost its usage in aviation fuels [8][59]. Operational Capacity - The company has established a robust operational capacity in kitchen waste treatment, with a daily processing capacity of 4,380 tons as of the end of 2024, with plans to expand to 8,000-10,000 tons [9][68]. - The company employs a heavy asset operation model, maintaining a high debt ratio of over 70%, which is typical for the industry [9][71]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 104 million yuan, 179 million yuan, and 299 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31.2, 18.1, and 10.8 [1][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, driven by supply optimization and recovery in profitability [3][4] - The demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to grow steadily due to continuous support from multiple countries [4] - The price of Used Cooking Oil (UCO) is anticipated to rise further due to increasing demand and carbon tax prices [5] - The European Union has confirmed that there is no evidence of fraud in the import of biodiesel from China, which may boost demand [6] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The basic chemical industry is projected to outperform the overall market, with a positive investment rating [1] - The industry has shown a significant price increase for SAF, with EU and China prices rising by 10% and 3% respectively since the beginning of 2025 [4][10] Demand Drivers - The demand for UCO is increasing, driven by the growth in SAF and Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) requirements [5] - The HVO demand in Germany is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons by 2026, nearly quadrupling the 2025 levels [5] Beneficiary Companies - Companies such as Shandong Hi-Speed Energy and Jiaao Environmental Protection are positioned to benefit from the growing SAF market and UCO production [7] - Shandong Hi-Speed Energy plans to increase its waste processing capacity, which will double its UCO output [7] - Jiaao Environmental Protection is set to gain market share in the domestic SAF sector with new capital investments [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Combined adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $249.5 million, down from $273.6 million in Q2 2024, while year-to-date combined adjusted EBITDA totaled $445.3 million compared to $553.7 million for the same period in 2024 [13][14] - Total net sales in Q2 2025 were $1.48 billion, slightly up from $1.46 billion in Q2 2024, with raw material volume remaining nearly unchanged at approximately 3.74 million metric tons [14] - Gross margins improved to 23.3% in Q2 2025 from 22.5% in Q2 2024, with year-to-date gross margins at 23% compared to 21.9% in the first half of 2024 [14][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes Feed Ingredients Segment - Total net sales for Q2 2025 were $936.5 million, up from $934.1 million in Q2 2024, with gross margins improving to 22.9% from 21% [15][16] - Raw material volumes remained approximately 3.1 million metric tons for both quarters, with year-to-date volumes at roughly 6.2 million metric tons [16] Food Segment - Total sales for Q2 2025 were $386.1 million, compared to $378.8 million in Q2 2024, with gross margins unchanged at 26.9% [18] - Year-to-date gross margins improved to 28.1% from 25.3% in the same period a year ago [18] Fuel Segment - Darling's share of DGD EBITDA was approximately $42.6 million in Q2 2025, down from $76.6 million in Q2 2024, with year-to-date EBITDA at $48.7 million compared to $191.7 million in 2024 [19][20] - Overall fuel segment sales for Q2 2025 were $158.8 million, up from $142.3 million in Q2 2024 [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The renewable fuel environment remains challenging, with small refinery exemptions and delayed compliance enforcement impacting margins [11][12] - Tariff volatility and increased domestic oilseed crush have pressured protein prices, particularly in Asia, but rising fat prices are expected to support the Feed segment [8][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced the formation of NexTata, a joint venture focused on health and wellness, aligning with its strategy to diversify into high-margin markets [6] - The company is focused on operational discipline and strategic timing to position itself for improved margins in the future [12][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the core ingredients platform, anticipating sequential improvement driven by rising fat prices [24] - The company expects full-year combined adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.05 billion to $1.1 billion, reflecting optimism about market conditions [25] Other Important Information - The company successfully refinanced its Eurobond and replaced its revolving credit facility, enhancing financial flexibility [21][22] - Total debt net of cash decreased to $3.89 billion as of June 28, 2025, from $3.97 billion at the end of 2024, lowering the leverage ratio to 3.34 times [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on policy benefits for domestic renewable diesel - Management highlighted the evolving domestic market and the expected drop in imported raw materials, benefiting U.S. fat pricing [28][30] Question: Outlook for LCFS prices - Management indicated a positive trend in carbon prices and anticipated potential increases, although exact estimates were challenging [34][35] Question: Impact of lower UCO pricing - Management explained the fluid dynamics of the UCO market and the lag effect in pricing, which impacted margins [39][41] Question: Opportunities for DGD outside California - Management confirmed significant exports to Europe and the UK, with growing demand for renewable diesel globally [50][51] Question: Expectations for SREs - Management expressed uncertainty regarding the timing and impact of SRE announcements, emphasizing the need for clarity in the market [53][56] Question: CapEx plans and capital discipline - Management committed to maintaining CapEx at $400 million or lower for the year, focusing on debt reduction [101]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the launch of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in 2025, with expectations of increased demand for Used Cooking Oil (UCO) as a key raw material [3][4]. - The European Union's regulations mandate a gradual increase in SAF blending ratios, which is expected to drive UCO demand significantly [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its UCO processing capabilities through acquisitions and new projects, which will enhance its market position [4][6]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 7.13 yuan, with a yearly high of 7.36 yuan and a low of 3.05 yuan [2]. - The circulating market value is 32.78 billion yuan, while the total market value stands at 33.58 billion yuan [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.56 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.93 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.6%, 11.4%, and 10.8% respectively [6]. - Net profit is expected to increase dramatically from 87 million yuan in 2025 to 219 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 569.8%, 63.6%, and 53.4% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.19 yuan in 2025 to 0.47 yuan in 2027 [6]. Industry Opportunities - The SAF market is anticipated to grow significantly, with European SAF demand projected to reach approximately 137,000 tons in 2025 and 411,000 tons by 2030 [3][4]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing UCO demand driven by SAF policies and market dynamics [4][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing active research in life sciences and the global wave of biotechnology revolution, which is accelerating integration into economic and social development. This provides new solutions for major challenges such as health, climate change, resource security, and food security. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Bioeconomy," indicating a trillion-yuan market potential in the bioeconomy sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Secondary Market Performance - The synthetic biology sector saw a significant increase of 9.36% in the week from June 9 to June 13, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 9.61 percentage points [17][20]. 1.2 Company Business Progress - Domestic companies are making strides in synthetic biology, such as Hongmo Bio partnering with Yizhi Weisi to establish an AI-driven bio-manufacturing center, and Yike Bio launching a PHA bioplastic production base in Suzhou [26][27]. 1.3 Industry Financing Tracking - Financing activities in the synthetic biology sector are accelerating, with nearly a hundred companies completing new financing rounds since the beginning of 2025. Notable examples include Jingjiahang's angel round financing and Mosanna Therapeutics' $80 million Series A financing [33][34]. 1.4 Company R&D Directions - Companies are focusing on innovative technologies, such as the development of non-grain bio-based insulation materials by Nanjing Forestry University and the strategic collaboration between AstraZeneca and Stone Pharmaceutical for drug discovery [9][29]. 1.5 Industry Research Dynamics - The report notes the establishment of key technology R&D projects in Shanghai for synthetic biology, covering various innovative areas such as AI cell design and 3D printing of tissues [8].