以下文章来源于睿兽Pro ，作者Bestla 睿兽Pro . 创业邦旗下横跨一二级市场的科创数据平台。实时投资数据、追踪产业创新。找数据、做分析、链资 源，就上睿兽分析。 在全球碳中和的浪潮下，航空与航运业正站在绿色转型的十字路口。航空业当前的碳排放已占全球总 量的3%，若不加紧行动，2050年这一比例恐将飙升至22%，成为气候变化的巨大推手。而航运业 也不容乐观，2023年其温室气体排放约达83.34亿吨，占全球总排放量的2.2%，99%依赖化石燃 料，若放任不管，2050年排放量最高可能增长250%，严重威胁地球生态平衡。 在这场绿色革命中，高效低碳燃料成为破 局关键。SAF（可持续航空燃料）以其超80%的全生命周 期碳减排力，且与现有燃油系统无缝兼容的优势，成为航空业迈向净零排放的绿色希望。航运业方 面，绿色甲醇和绿氨凭借在安全性、合规性、碳减排潜力及与现有基础设施适配性等方面的综合优 势，成为航运业实现零排放愿景的理想"燃料舵手"。 创业邦持续关注创新经济及其推动者，通过访谈近10家创新企业/机构及行业专家，围绕SAF、绿色 甲醇和绿氨，全面分析其市场前景、技术路线与成本结构，还梳理了市场格局与代表项 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is a key strategic player in the renewable energy sector under the Shankao Group, focusing on the green transformation of its business model, particularly in kitchen waste treatment and heating [2][3]. - The company has returned to a growth trajectory since 2021, with significant revenue increases following its strategic pivot towards environmental and green energy sectors [4][19]. - The demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to grow significantly, driven by global carbon reduction initiatives, positioning the company favorably within this expanding market [8][58]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established as Sichuan Meiya Silk (Group) Co., Ltd., has undergone multiple ownership changes and strategic pivots, ultimately focusing on renewable energy and environmental services [3][12]. - Following a major restructuring in 2020, the company shifted its focus to kitchen waste resource utilization, becoming the only listed company in China primarily engaged in this sector [3][19]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 827 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 138.33% [4][19]. - In 2024, despite a reduction in trading volume, the company achieved a 47.3% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [21]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 434 million yuan, reflecting a 4.21% year-on-year growth, with net profit reaching 28.27 million yuan, up 222.23% [21][30]. Market Dynamics - Used cooking oil (UCO) is a critical raw material for SAF, with China accounting for over 60% of global UCO supply, highlighting its strategic importance in the SAF production chain [5][45]. - The global demand for SAF is projected to increase significantly, with various countries implementing policies to boost its usage in aviation fuels [8][59]. Operational Capacity - The company has established a robust operational capacity in kitchen waste treatment, with a daily processing capacity of 4,380 tons as of the end of 2024, with plans to expand to 8,000-10,000 tons [9][68]. - The company employs a heavy asset operation model, maintaining a high debt ratio of over 70%, which is typical for the industry [9][71]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 104 million yuan, 179 million yuan, and 299 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31.2, 18.1, and 10.8 [1][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, driven by supply optimization and recovery in profitability [3][4] - The demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to grow steadily due to continuous support from multiple countries [4] - The price of Used Cooking Oil (UCO) is anticipated to rise further due to increasing demand and carbon tax prices [5] - The European Union has confirmed that there is no evidence of fraud in the import of biodiesel from China, which may boost demand [6] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The basic chemical industry is projected to outperform the overall market, with a positive investment rating [1] - The industry has shown a significant price increase for SAF, with EU and China prices rising by 10% and 3% respectively since the beginning of 2025 [4][10] Demand Drivers - The demand for UCO is increasing, driven by the growth in SAF and Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) requirements [5] - The HVO demand in Germany is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons by 2026, nearly quadrupling the 2025 levels [5] Beneficiary Companies - Companies such as Shandong Hi-Speed Energy and Jiaao Environmental Protection are positioned to benefit from the growing SAF market and UCO production [7] - Shandong Hi-Speed Energy plans to increase its waste processing capacity, which will double its UCO output [7] - Jiaao Environmental Protection is set to gain market share in the domestic SAF sector with new capital investments [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Combined adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $249.5 million, down from $273.6 million in Q2 2024, while year-to-date combined adjusted EBITDA totaled $445.3 million compared to $553.7 million for the same period in 2024 [13][14] - Total net sales in Q2 2025 were $1.48 billion, slightly up from $1.46 billion in Q2 2024, with raw material volume remaining nearly unchanged at approximately 3.74 million metric tons [14] - Gross margins improved to 23.3% in Q2 2025 from 22.5% in Q2 2024, with year-to-date gross margins at 23% compared to 21.9% in the first half of 2024 [14][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes Feed Ingredients Segment - Total net sales for Q2 2025 were $936.5 million, up from $934.1 million in Q2 2024, with gross margins improving to 22.9% from 21% [15][16] - Raw material volumes remained approximately 3.1 million metric tons for both quarters, with year-to-date volumes at roughly 6.2 million metric tons [16] Food Segment - Total sales for Q2 2025 were $386.1 million, compared to $378.8 million in Q2 2024, with gross margins unchanged at 26.9% [18] - Year-to-date gross margins improved to 28.1% from 25.3% in the same period a year ago [18] Fuel Segment - Darling's share of DGD EBITDA was approximately $42.6 million in Q2 2025, down from $76.6 million in Q2 2024, with year-to-date EBITDA at $48.7 million compared to $191.7 million in 2024 [19][20] - Overall fuel segment sales for Q2 2025 were $158.8 million, up from $142.3 million in Q2 2024 [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The renewable fuel environment remains challenging, with small refinery exemptions and delayed compliance enforcement impacting margins [11][12] - Tariff volatility and increased domestic oilseed crush have pressured protein prices, particularly in Asia, but rising fat prices are expected to support the Feed segment [8][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced the formation of NexTata, a joint venture focused on health and wellness, aligning with its strategy to diversify into high-margin markets [6] - The company is focused on operational discipline and strategic timing to position itself for improved margins in the future [12][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the core ingredients platform, anticipating sequential improvement driven by rising fat prices [24] - The company expects full-year combined adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.05 billion to $1.1 billion, reflecting optimism about market conditions [25] Other Important Information - The company successfully refinanced its Eurobond and replaced its revolving credit facility, enhancing financial flexibility [21][22] - Total debt net of cash decreased to $3.89 billion as of June 28, 2025, from $3.97 billion at the end of 2024, lowering the leverage ratio to 3.34 times [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on policy benefits for domestic renewable diesel - Management highlighted the evolving domestic market and the expected drop in imported raw materials, benefiting U.S. fat pricing [28][30] Question: Outlook for LCFS prices - Management indicated a positive trend in carbon prices and anticipated potential increases, although exact estimates were challenging [34][35] Question: Impact of lower UCO pricing - Management explained the fluid dynamics of the UCO market and the lag effect in pricing, which impacted margins [39][41] Question: Opportunities for DGD outside California - Management confirmed significant exports to Europe and the UK, with growing demand for renewable diesel globally [50][51] Question: Expectations for SREs - Management expressed uncertainty regarding the timing and impact of SRE announcements, emphasizing the need for clarity in the market [53][56] Question: CapEx plans and capital discipline - Management committed to maintaining CapEx at $400 million or lower for the year, focusing on debt reduction [101]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the launch of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in 2025, with expectations of increased demand for Used Cooking Oil (UCO) as a key raw material [3][4]. - The European Union's regulations mandate a gradual increase in SAF blending ratios, which is expected to drive UCO demand significantly [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its UCO processing capabilities through acquisitions and new projects, which will enhance its market position [4][6]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 7.13 yuan, with a yearly high of 7.36 yuan and a low of 3.05 yuan [2]. - The circulating market value is 32.78 billion yuan, while the total market value stands at 33.58 billion yuan [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.56 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.93 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.6%, 11.4%, and 10.8% respectively [6]. - Net profit is expected to increase dramatically from 87 million yuan in 2025 to 219 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 569.8%, 63.6%, and 53.4% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.19 yuan in 2025 to 0.47 yuan in 2027 [6]. Industry Opportunities - The SAF market is anticipated to grow significantly, with European SAF demand projected to reach approximately 137,000 tons in 2025 and 411,000 tons by 2030 [3][4]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing UCO demand driven by SAF policies and market dynamics [4][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing active research in life sciences and the global wave of biotechnology revolution, which is accelerating integration into economic and social development. This provides new solutions for major challenges such as health, climate change, resource security, and food security. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Bioeconomy," indicating a trillion-yuan market potential in the bioeconomy sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Secondary Market Performance - The synthetic biology sector saw a significant increase of 9.36% in the week from June 9 to June 13, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 9.61 percentage points [17][20]. 1.2 Company Business Progress - Domestic companies are making strides in synthetic biology, such as Hongmo Bio partnering with Yizhi Weisi to establish an AI-driven bio-manufacturing center, and Yike Bio launching a PHA bioplastic production base in Suzhou [26][27]. 1.3 Industry Financing Tracking - Financing activities in the synthetic biology sector are accelerating, with nearly a hundred companies completing new financing rounds since the beginning of 2025. Notable examples include Jingjiahang's angel round financing and Mosanna Therapeutics' $80 million Series A financing [33][34]. 1.4 Company R&D Directions - Companies are focusing on innovative technologies, such as the development of non-grain bio-based insulation materials by Nanjing Forestry University and the strategic collaboration between AstraZeneca and Stone Pharmaceutical for drug discovery [9][29]. 1.5 Industry Research Dynamics - The report notes the establishment of key technology R&D projects in Shanghai for synthetic biology, covering various innovative areas such as AI cell design and 3D printing of tissues [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in overseas HVO/SAF prices, with European prices rising by 13.97% and 11.60% respectively since the lowest points in Q2 2025, driven by strong seasonal demand [5] - The EU is gradually implementing a 2% SAF blending policy, which is expected to enhance the demand for SAF and subsequently increase the price of UCO, benefiting the entire UCO-HVO/SAF industry chain [6] - The demand for UCO is anticipated to grow steadily due to the increasing SAF demand, with domestic UCO prices rising as a result of heightened procurement levels from SAF and biodiesel plants [7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report indicates a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, with a maintained investment rating [1] - A notable trend is the increase in UCO prices in China, with prices for gutter oil and waste oil rising by 3.31% and 2.31% respectively since Q2 2025 [5] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the EU's measures to support the SAF market, including subsidies for airlines purchasing sustainable aviation fuel, which is expected to drive up costs and demand [6] - The report notes that China's SAF production costs are lower due to abundant and cheaper UCO resources, positioning China to capture a significant market share in the EU [6] Company Insights - The report provides a table of companies involved in HVO/SAF production, highlighting their planned capacities and market valuations, with 嘉澳环保 leading with a planned capacity of 740,000 tons [10] - The report identifies key beneficiaries of the SAF demand increase, including 嘉澳环保, 海新能科, 卓越新能, and 鹏鹞环保 [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing application and demand for biodiesel, particularly in transportation and aviation sectors, driven by environmental policies and technological advancements [2][3]. Group 1: Biodiesel Development - Biodiesel is recognized for its environmental benefits, good engine performance, and renewable nature, making it crucial for sustainable economic development and energy transition [2]. - The application of biodiesel is expanding beyond road transport to include maritime and aviation sectors, with significant potential for growth [2]. - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that by 2050, 65% of emissions reductions in aviation will come from the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [2]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is promoting the development of non-grain biomass liquid fuels, including biodiesel and biojet fuel, as part of its "3060" carbon neutrality strategy [2]. - The EU mandates that by 2025, at least 2% of aviation fuel supplied at EU airports must be SAF, increasing to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, which is expected to drive demand for SAF [3]. - The export volume of kitchen waste oil in China is projected to grow from 730,000 tons in 2019 to 2.78 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 23% [3]. Group 3: Industry Developments - The approval of a "white list" for biojet fuel exports in Jiangsu province marks a significant step for China's biojet fuel industry, allowing for international market access [4]. - The company Jiangsu Jiaao has the capacity to produce 372,400 tons of biojet fuel annually, which can now be exported under the new regulations [4]. - The establishment of export channels is expected to create competitive advantages for leading technology firms in the biojet fuel sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity and complexity of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) as a core means for decarbonizing the aviation industry, highlighting the progress in both global and Chinese markets, and the critical role of technology, cost, and policy coordination [3]. Key Data - As of March 2025, only 15% of the built SAF projects are operational compared to the planned capacity, indicating that most projects are still in the planning stage [4]. - The price of SAF in 2024 is expected to decrease significantly compared to 2023, yet it remains approximately three times higher than traditional aviation fuel [5]. - China's aviation fuel consumption in 2024 is projected to exceed 2.19 million tons, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, with an optimistic forecast of 2.19 million tons of SAF demand by 2030 [6]. Industry Certification - By March 2025, there are four SAF production companies in China that have received airworthiness certification from the Civil Aviation Administration, 11 companies with ISCC/RSB CORSIA certification, and 12 companies with ISCC-EU certification [7]. Market Development - The commercial development of SAF in China is relatively late, with only 10% of the planned total capacity currently built [10]. - The HEFA process currently has the lowest production costs, while the PtL process shows the greatest potential for cost reduction [12]. SAF Technology and Market Analysis - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of SAF production processes, including HEFA, FT, AtJ, MtJ, and PtL, as well as the current state of the global SAF market, including blending policies and airline commitments [14][15]. - It also covers the development status of SAF in various regions, including the EU, UK, and US, alongside China's policy, demand, and project analysis [15]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that understanding the economic viability of SAF and its market dynamics is crucial for stakeholders in the aviation industry [16].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong first quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $56.3 million for the Specialty Products segment, reflecting robust volume growth and operational improvements [32] - Montana Renewables generated $3.3 million in adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes, a significant improvement from a negative $13.4 million in the prior year [36] - The company ended the first quarter with $347 million in liquidity, positioning itself for strong cash flow generation in the upcoming quarters [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Specialty Products segment achieved one of the highest quarterly volumes on record at approximately 23,000 barrels per day, despite some operational challenges [33] - The Performance Brands segment posted adjusted EBITDA of $15.8 million, driven by strong volume growth and supply chain efficiencies [35] - Montana Renewables saw operational cost improvements, reducing costs to below $0.70 per gallon, with a focus on increasing SAF production [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The renewable diesel market is currently facing challenges with low index margins, but the company remains optimistic about future demand and regulatory clarity [17] - The biomass-based diesel production undershot the RVO by approximately 230 million gallons in Q1, indicating a temporary market dynamic [17] - The company expects to ramp up SAF sales in late Q2 2025, with a focus on capturing market demand as global mandates increase [37] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing a deleveraging strategy, including the sale of non-core assets and the completion of a DOE loan to strengthen its balance sheet [6][29] - The MaxSaf project is a key focus, with expectations to bring 150 million gallons of SAF capacity online by early 2026 at a significantly reduced capital cost [20] - The company aims to maintain operational flexibility and cost control to navigate through economic cycles, leveraging its integrated asset base [8][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that despite recession fears, the company is not experiencing significant downturns, with strong specialty sales volumes recorded [7] - The management expressed confidence in the company's ability to generate positive cash flow across economic cycles, citing operational improvements and cost reductions [14] - There is optimism regarding regulatory clarity and market recovery, which could enhance margins and operational performance [52] Other Important Information - The company has made significant changes to how it reports adjusted EBITDA to better reflect cash generation capabilities, including the addition of production tax credits [24][26] - The sale of the Royal Purple Industrial business generated approximately $100 million in cash proceeds, aiding liquidity and operational focus [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regulatory environment and adjustments to EBITDA reporting - Management explained the rationale behind the changes to EBITDA reporting, emphasizing the need for clarity in cash generation capabilities and the impact of tax credits [41][44] Question: Balance sheet and liquidity concerns - Management reassured that liquidity is strong, with $340 million available, and highlighted the impact of the DOE loan on reducing annual cash flow from debt service [48][50] Question: Higher SAF volumes and capital expenditures - Management clarified that existing assets would be utilized to achieve higher SAF output at a lower capital cost, with a focus on marketing efforts for increased sales [58][60] Question: PTC booking and future expectations - Management confirmed that the full value of the PTC was booked for the quarter and discussed expectations for future bookings based on feedstock optimization [66][68] Question: Strategic alternatives for debt reduction - Management indicated that any cash inflow would primarily be directed towards debt reduction, with ongoing interest in selling non-core assets [77][78]