2025 年 10月9日 品 研 维持 | | | (基本面跟踪) 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单位 | 收盘价(日盘) | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价(夜盘) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | | | | 12/ | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | | | | 1861 | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | | | | | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4.546 | 1.65% | 4.560 | 0. 33% | | 期货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51. 29 | 0. 49% | | | | | | 单位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | | | | | | | 豆油主力。 | 手 | 1 300 | | | | | | 菜油主力 | 手 | | | | | | | | 单位 | 现货价格 | | 价格变动 | | | | 棕榈油(24度):广东 | 元/吨 | 9.060 | | -50 | | | 现货 | 一级豆油: ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need for global action in response to the challenges of green transition, highlighting the importance of international cooperation, particularly between Peru and China, to advance renewable energy initiatives [4]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Opportunities - The biodiesel industry in South America is rapidly growing, with Peru expanding its market share alongside major producers like Brazil and Argentina, positioning itself as the second-largest biodiesel center globally after Asia [4]. - Peru has established a mandatory biodiesel blending standard, increasing from B5 (95% petroleum and 5% biodiesel) to B7.5, reflecting its commitment to clean energy and emission reduction [4]. - The glycerin market presents significant growth opportunities, with Peru exporting 525,000 tons of crude glycerin and 155,000 tons of refined glycerin annually, which are widely used in various industries [5]. Group 2: Raw Material and Sustainable Practices - Peru's palm oil production is significant, with plans to expand cultivation, as the region currently utilizes less than 1% of its farmland for palm planting, indicating substantial growth potential [5]. - The goal is to achieve carbon capture of 5 to 11 million tons of CO2 by 2030 through sustainable palm oil cultivation, ensuring no soil degradation occurs [5]. Group 3: Future Cooperation and Technological Innovation - The economic cooperation between China and Peru is expected to expand into digitalization to facilitate trade, with significant potential in intellectual property and unique technologies [6]. - The emerging energy sector, particularly in oil-based chemicals, has a market size of $20 billion, which can support high-end industrial development and contribute to sustainable aviation fuel production [5].

每经AI快讯，9月24日，中信证券研报表示，欧洲SAF价格持续上涨，目前已突破2700美金/吨。欧洲提 出高额补贴计划，强制添加政策的执行力度或加强，预计SAF需求将爆发。在2025年上半年欧洲SAF- HVO价格倒挂，国内新增供给和出口许可证审批进度不及预期，近期国内外主要SAF工厂密集检修等多 因素共同作用下，SAF供应紧张局面或将延续。在SAF的产业化趋势逐渐明确的背景下，建议关注行业 内主要玩家。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses South Korea's initiative to promote Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) through a mandatory blending system, aiming for carbon neutrality in aviation and the establishment of a SAF alliance [3][4]. Group 1: SAF Blending Mandate - South Korea plans to implement a mandatory SAF blending ratio starting from 2027 at 1%, increasing to 3-5% by 2030, and 7-10% by 2035, with specific targets to be confirmed in 2026 and 2029 respectively [4]. - The government will support the development and investment in bio-based SAF through tax incentives, with facility investment support up to 25% and R&D support up to 40% [4]. Group 2: Global SAF Initiatives - Various countries have set their own SAF targets, including Japan aiming for a 10% replacement rate by 2030, Singapore targeting a 3-5% blending ratio by 2030, the UK planning to increase from 2% in 2025 to 22% by 2040, and the EU requiring a 2% blending ratio this year with a goal of 70% by 2050 [5]. Group 3: SAF Production Pathways - The article highlights the potential of non-grain alcohol-based SAF production pathways, particularly the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) process, which is currently in the commercial pilot stage [6]. - Research focuses on efficiently constructing long carbon chain products from non-grain biomass, with significant advancements made by a team at Zhejiang University in developing a one-step ethanol to C3+ olefins technology, which reduces operational complexity and costs while achieving high yields [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The development of biofuel industries in India, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore is driven by the need for energy transition, emission reduction, and enhanced energy security. Each country has distinct development models based on its resource endowment and policy orientation, with biofuels showing significant potential in replacing traditional fossil fuels, but also facing various challenges [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Biofuel Industry Development Background - The energy demand in South and Southeast Asia is rising due to population growth, economic development, and urbanization. To meet emission reduction targets and enhance energy autonomy, countries are turning to biofuels, with different development routes based on their resource endowments [9] Fuel Ethanol Industry Analysis India: E20 Target Achieved Ahead of Schedule, with Controversies and Opportunities - India has become a major global producer and consumer of fuel ethanol, achieving significant economic and environmental benefits. Policy is the core driver, with the E20 target advanced to 2025. However, challenges such as raw material supply and vehicle compatibility remain. The government is promoting raw material diversification and capacity expansion, but corn price increases may cause inflation, and raw material supply is subject to climate and food security risks [11][20][21] Thailand: Accelerated Development of Electric Vehicles, Fuel Ethanol to Gradually Yield - Thailand is a major producer and consumer of fuel ethanol in Southeast Asia, with development driven by policies. However, the rapid rise of electric vehicles is squeezing fuel ethanol demand. In the short term, fuel ethanol still plays a transitional role, but in the long term, the industry may need to explore exports or alternative uses. Raw material supply is affected by weather, and future capacity may need to be digested through new channels [30][31][33] Biodiesel Industry Analysis Malaysia: Blending Policy Implementation Encountered Hurdles, B20 Temporarily Implemented Locally - Malaysia's biodiesel industry, based on palm oil, has been steadily developing under policy promotion but faces challenges such as production fluctuations and shrinking export markets. The B20 and B30 plans have been delayed due to infrastructure and investment issues. The industry relies on domestic palm oil resources, and current production capacity is about 2.7 billion liters, with efforts being made to upgrade facilities and develop HVO [37][38][47] Singapore: Explosive Growth in Demand for Bio - Marine Fuels, Promising Future - Singapore, as the world's largest marine fuel bunkering port, has seen a rapid increase in demand for bio - marine fuels. Policy goals have created growth space for biofuel consumption, and market - driven demand has led to a significant increase in sales. An investment project is under construction to expand production capacity [48][49][52] Sustainable Aviation Fuel Industry Analysis SAF is in the Initial Stage with Great Development Potential - The development of SAF is crucial for the aviation industry to reduce carbon emissions. India, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore have all set SAF blending targets and are taking measures in policy, technology, and capacity building. However, challenges such as high investment and high prices need to be addressed [54][55][56] Impact of Biofuel Development on Petroleum Consumption - The development of biofuel industries in the four countries has effectively replaced traditional fossil fuel consumption. In the fuel ethanol sector, India has achieved significant substitution results, while Thailand's substitution effect may peak and then decline. In the biodiesel sector, Malaysia is steadily replacing traditional diesel, and Singapore's bio - marine fuel demand is growing rapidly. In the aviation sector, SAF is expected to replace a considerable amount of traditional aviation kerosene in the future [61] Summary and Outlook - Biofuels are becoming an important alternative to traditional fossil fuels. The four countries have different development models, with India excelling in fuel ethanol, Thailand facing challenges in ethanol development, Malaysia making progress in biodiesel with implementation bottlenecks, and Singapore having a bright future in bio - marine fuels. All four countries have potential in SAF. In the future, India's ethanol industry has prospects but needs to address challenges, Thailand's ethanol may yield to electric vehicles, Malaysia's biodiesel has potential but needs to solve problems, and bio - marine fuels and SAF will be more important, with Singapore leading in the bio - marine fuel market [67][68]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed a plan to redistribute the small refinery exemption (SRE) obligations for biofuel blending to larger refineries, offering options of 50% and 100% redistribution, while also seeking public input on other potential ratios [1][2] Group 1: Proposal Details - The EPA's proposal includes a public comment period of 45 days, which is considered crucial by industry officials [1] - The biofuel industry advocates for a full 100% redistribution to maintain demand for products like corn ethanol, while refiners oppose this, citing increased costs [1] - The proposal is seen as a "stalling tactic" by some industry officials, indicating a lack of substantial progress [1] Group 2: Background Information - According to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), refineries are required to blend billions of gallons of biofuels annually or purchase renewable identification numbers (RINs) from compliant entities [1] - Small refineries can apply for SRE exemptions if they demonstrate that blending requirements would cause financial hardship [1] - The EPA cleared over 170 SRE exemption applications from 2016, necessitating a compensation plan for the obligations [2] - The total amount of exemptions from 2023 to 2025 is equivalent to 2.18 billion RINs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry is experiencing significant growth driven by policy support, with a notable increase in SAF prices and demand projections for the future [1][2][3] Group 1: SAF Pricing and Demand - As of September 17, the high-end SAF FOB price in China reached $2,480 per ton, a 55% increase from $1,800 per ton at the beginning of the year [1][2][3] - The demand for SAF is primarily driven by policies, with the EU maintaining a 2% SAF blending ratio for 2025 and a long-term target of 70% [2][3] - According to IATA, the demand for SAF is projected to reach 358 million tons by 2050, indicating a vast demand space [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Production Potential - There is a supply-demand gap in the European SAF market, with an expected consumption of 1.9 million tons this year against a production capacity of only about 1 million tons [2] - Chinese SAF production potential is significant, with domestic companies expected to establish over 1 million tons of SAF capacity by the end of 2024 [2] - Currently, there are over 10 million tons per year of HVO/SAF capacity either in operation, under construction, or planned in China, suggesting rapid future capacity growth [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The high cost of SAF compared to traditional jet fuel has led to a general reluctance among airlines to adopt SAF, despite the EU's stringent blending requirements [3] - Major European airlines have increased their SAF procurement mid-year, contributing to the rapid rise in SAF prices [3] - The company recommends investing in "Zhuoyue New Energy" and related SAF enterprises, highlighting Zhuoyue New Energy as a leading domestic biodiesel producer with significant SAF production capacity [3]

Core Insights - The Australian government announced a 1.1 billion AUD investment over the next decade to develop the domestic low-carbon fuel industry, which has been positively received by the agricultural sector [1] - The funding aims to stimulate private sector investment in biodiesel and aviation fuel, leveraging Australia's abundant agricultural raw materials and cheap renewable energy [1] - The investment is referred to as the "down payment" for the development of the biofuel industry, positioning Australia as a key player in the global net-zero transition [1] Industry Implications - Australia is one of the largest producers of canola, sugarcane, and sorghum, primarily exporting these biofuel raw materials, with canola being a critical input for the European biodiesel industry [1] - The country currently relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products, making its transportation sector vulnerable to fluctuations in international oil prices [1] - Agricultural groups have been advocating for government intervention in biofuel investment, emphasizing that it is crucial not only for clean fuel but also for job creation, agricultural diversification, and maintaining Australia's leadership in the net-zero transition [1]

此次签约的国际经贸合作项目，涉及越南、马来西亚、缅甸、老挝、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚等6个东盟国 家，其中包括中国—东盟人工智能创新合作老挝中心建设运营项目；签约的外商投资项目涉及特色农产 品综合智能生产、生物燃料、纸品加工等产业。 新华社南宁9月18日电（记者朱丽莉）18日，第22届中国—东盟博览会签约仪式在广西南宁举行。现场 签约项目155个，包括产业项目94个、"人工智能+"赋能千行百业项目44个、国际经贸类项目17个。 本届东博会签约仪式聚焦"AI唱主角、企业为主体"主题，围绕打造面向东盟的人工智能国际合作高地、 构建跨区域跨境产业链供应链，着力推动签约一批标志性合作项目成果。 据介绍，"人工智能+"项目44个，涵盖人工智能基础层、技术层、应用层，涉及"人工智能+"制造业、服 务业、农业、文旅等行业领域，为中国—东盟合作注入AI能量。 此次签约10亿元以上项目共45个，涵盖新能源、高端装备、金属精深加工、关键金属、生物医药、商业 航天和低空经济、轻工纺织等细分行业，其中百亿元以上项目2个，50亿元至100亿元项目3个。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:张欣然】 ...

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