Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential adjustments in NVIDIA's CoWoS packaging orders with TSMC, highlighting the cautious approach of TSMC regarding capacity expansion and the market's optimistic expectations for NVIDIA's chip production plans [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS expansion plan remains unchanged, with a gradual increase to approximately 70,000 wafers per month by December 2025 [1]. - TSMC's 5/4nm process is currently fully loaded, and NVIDIA's chip production volume has increased compared to earlier this year [1]. Group 2: NVIDIA's Production Plans - There are rumors that NVIDIA's CoWoS wafer allocation for 2025 has been revised down from over 400,000 to around 380,000, which may stem from overly optimistic expectations from market participants [2]. - The transition period between NVIDIA's B200 and B300 series products has been significantly accelerated, leading to changes in production plans that may be misinterpreted as order cuts [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - TSMC has been cautious about capacity expansion, and significant order cuts are not expected unless there is a drastic shift in industry trends [2]. - Historical context shows that during peak market sentiment, NVIDIA had requested TSMC to increase CoWoS capacity to 100,000 wafers per month, which was declined by TSMC [2].

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's recent earnings report did not meet market expectations, leading to a decline in AI stocks, with supply chain sources indicating a reduction in advanced packaging orders from TSMC [1][2]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Product and Market Dynamics - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized strong market demand for the Blackwell series, with gross margins expected to remain around 70% during the ramp-up phase [1]. - The upcoming GTC event will showcase new products like Blackwell Ultra and GB300, with expectations for faster integration based on previous experiences with GB200 [2]. - The transition from the Hopper architecture to Blackwell architecture is underway, with production challenges noted due to lower yield rates of the new CoWoS-L packaging technology [4]. Group 2: TSMC's Capacity and Order Adjustments - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity remains near full utilization, but there are indications of a potential decrease in orders as the lifecycle of NVIDIA's previous GPU generation ends [1][3]. - Reports suggest that TSMC's CoWoS average monthly capacity has dropped to 62,500 wafers, below the expected 70,000 wafers, with NVIDIA's monthly orders also reduced from approximately 42,000 to 39,000 wafers [3]. - Despite rumors of order cuts, TSMC has denied these claims, stating that demand for CoWoS remains strong and that any perceived reductions may be due to process upgrades and product transitions [2][3]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Industry Trends - TSMC is ramping up production at its newly acquired facilities to meet the growing demand for advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS-L and SoIC [4]. - The industry anticipates that the new Rubin GPU and Vera CPU developments will contribute positively to market dynamics, with production expected to begin early next year [2].