持续推进产能扩张与产品结构优化 2025 年 8 月 22 日│中国内地 半导体 证券研究报告 长电科技 (600584 CH) 公司公布 2025 年中报：公司 2Q25 实现营收 92.70 亿元，同比增长 7.24%， 环比下降 0.70%，实现毛利率 14.31%，同比增长 0.03pcts，环比增长 1.68pcts，实现归母净利润 2.67 亿元，同比下降 44.75%，环比增长 31.50%， 2Q25 利润同降主因公司持续加大研发投入，同时在建工厂尚处于产品导入 期未大规模放量，以及财务费用上升。我们看好 2H25 消费电子传统旺季有 望拉动公司业绩，子公司长电微与汽车电子科技等新产能释放以及未来先进 封装业务放量带动公司未来业绩增长，维持买入评级。 新扩建产能有待放量，毛利率仍具韧性 2Q25 公司因新建产能仍处于产品导入期，未大规模放量，同时在地缘政治 等因素导致的消费电子整体需求相对偏弱的背景下收入与 1Q25 基本持平。 费用端方面，公司持续加大研发投入，同时受公司应付晟碟半导体分期交割 款影响，财务费用有所上升，故归母净利润上同比有所下滑。但公司毛利率 水平从 1Q25 的 12.6 ...

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor manufacturing industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with strong demand related to AI, particularly with the upward revision of ETIC terminal shipments, leading to increased order expectations for companies like TSMC [2][3] - TSMC's revenue for Q3 is expected to be between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, with a full-year revenue growth forecast of approximately 30% [2][8] - UMC's Q3 capacity utilization is around 75%, with revenue guidance indicating low single-digit growth driven by shipment volume [1][2] - Domestic manufacturers like SMIC are expected to maintain relatively full capacity until the end of the year, but a slight decline is anticipated in Q4 [1][2] Key Points on TSMC - TSMC's capital expenditure is maintained at a high level, projected between $38 billion and $42 billion [2] - The company plans to achieve mass production of 2nm technology in the second half of the year, with HPC customer new products migrating to the N3 platform next year [1][2] - TSMC's Q2 revenue reached $30.07 billion, a 17.8% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by strong AI revenue [8] UMC and Domestic Manufacturers - UMC's revenue guidance is driven by stable pricing and increased shipment volume, despite historical cyclical comparisons showing a gap [2][3] - SMIC is expected to face increased ASP and UTR pressures next year, with potential risks in C-end and B-end applications [1][3] Packaging and Testing Industry - The packaging and testing industry is seeing decent revenue growth, benefiting from industry recovery, although it is less correlated with AI [1][4] - Companies like ASE and Amkor are experiencing stable UTR guidance, but capacity utilization remains low [4][5] AMD's Performance - AMD has shown strong performance in consumer chips and the Ryzen series, leading to upward revisions in expectations, positively impacting Tongfu Microelectronics [6][8] Equipment Industry Outlook - The equipment industry is facing challenges, with a pessimistic outlook for global WFE (Wafer Fab Equipment) in 2026 [7][19] - ASML's DUV orders are strong, particularly from emerging logic customers in China, despite EUV orders falling short of expectations [7][21] - Lam Research has raised its 2026 WFE guidance to $105 billion, reflecting increased spending in China [7][20] Challenges and Opportunities in Storage - The storage industry faces uncertainty, particularly with Samsung's validation process impacting capital expenditure outlook [10] - Chinese DRAM customers are expected to improve yield rates, leading to increased domestic production certainty [10] Future Trends in Advanced Processes - The focus is on the 18A and upcoming 14A nodes, with Intel concentrating on advanced process nodes and potentially halting external foundry projects [11][12] - TSMC's dominance in advanced processes remains unthreatened, with major design clients relying on TSMC for production [11][12] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is navigating a complex landscape with varying demand across segments, with AI-related growth driving some companies while others face challenges in mature processes and equipment supply [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][19][20][21][22]

Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a structural recovery driven by multiple factors including AI technology penetration, deepening domestic substitution, and cyclical inventory replenishment, leading to growth across various segments [23][24]. Semiconductor Equipment - The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to reach $121 billion by 2025, with China leading in capacity expansion, projected to grow to 10.1 million wafers per month [2][28]. - Domestic high-end equipment still relies on imports, but local manufacturers are accelerating their catch-up in high-end equipment sectors due to favorable policies and external sanctions [2][28]. - In Q1 2025, selected domestic equipment companies reported a total revenue of 16.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, and a net profit of 2.49 billion yuan, up 34.8% [2][28]. Semiconductor Materials - The global sales of wafer manufacturing materials and packaging materials are projected to be $42.9 billion and $24.6 billion in 2024, respectively, benefiting from advanced process developments [3][29]. - The semiconductor materials market is expected to exceed $84 billion by 2028, driven by AI development [3][29]. - From 2019 to 2024, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for selected semiconductor materials companies is projected to be 18.58% [3][29]. Semiconductor Components - The revenue and profit growth in the semiconductor components industry have significantly accelerated since 2020, with a CAGR of 27% from 6.77 billion yuan in 2019 to 22.34 billion yuan in 2024 [4][30]. - The net profit for the same period increased from 670 million yuan to 2.69 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 32% [4][30]. Packaging and Testing - The packaging and testing sector has seen continuous revenue growth for six consecutive quarters, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 21.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24% [5][31]. - The sector's gross margin in Q1 2025 was 13.3%, with a net profit of 420 million yuan, up 8% year-on-year [5][31]. Storage - The storage sector is expected to see an upward trend in average selling prices (ASP), driven by AI demand [7][27]. - In Q1 2025, the revenue of certain module manufacturers increased by 54% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the sector [7][27]. Consumer Electronics - The global smartphone shipment is projected to reach 1.22 billion units in 2024, a 7% year-on-year increase, marking a rebound after two years of decline [12][32]. - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing a recovery trend, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 400.85 billion yuan, a 22% year-on-year increase [12][32]. PCB - The PCB sector is expected to see comprehensive growth in 2024, driven by high-end demand from AI applications [13][34]. - In Q1 2025, PCB companies reported significant revenue growth, with some companies like Shenghong Technology achieving an 80.3% year-on-year increase [13][34]. Passive Components - The revenue of key listed companies in the passive components sector reached 9.383 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.76% [14][35]. - The average gross margin for the sector was 27.93%, indicating stable performance despite seasonal fluctuations [14][35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in advanced semiconductor packaging towards Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging (FOPLP), which is expected to replace CoWoS as the new mainstream for AI chip packaging. Innolux, leveraging its existing panel production advantages, aims to mass-produce FOPLP by mid-2023, outpacing major semiconductor players like TSMC and ASE Group [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - FOPLP technology is gaining traction due to its higher chip placement efficiency and lower costs compared to traditional CoWoS, which uses circular substrates. The square substrates in FOPLP allow for a greater number of chips to be packaged, significantly improving utilization rates [3][4]. - Major companies, including TSMC and ASE Group, are also exploring FOPLP technology, with ASE Group planning to enter the 600mm x 600mm FOPLP space by Q2 2023 and begin trial production in Q3 2023 [3][4]. Group 2: Company Strategy - Innolux has been developing FOPLP technology for eight years and has launched a "Semiconductor Fast Track Plan" to recruit 500 new talents to accelerate its deployment and achieve mass production of the largest FOPLP size of 700mm x 700mm by mid-2023 [4]. - The company has outlined a three-step roadmap for FOPLP technology, starting with Chip First process technology, followed by RDL First for mid-to-high-end products within 1-2 years, and TGV process technology in collaboration with partners expected to be ready in 2-3 years [4]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about Innolux's panel business, which is experiencing price increases despite the traditional off-season, and the advanced packaging segment is expected to yield higher profit margins than the panel business, thus reducing the risks associated with panel market fluctuations [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's recent earnings report did not meet market expectations, leading to a decline in AI stocks, with supply chain sources indicating a reduction in advanced packaging orders from TSMC [1][2]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Product and Market Dynamics - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized strong market demand for the Blackwell series, with gross margins expected to remain around 70% during the ramp-up phase [1]. - The upcoming GTC event will showcase new products like Blackwell Ultra and GB300, with expectations for faster integration based on previous experiences with GB200 [2]. - The transition from the Hopper architecture to Blackwell architecture is underway, with production challenges noted due to lower yield rates of the new CoWoS-L packaging technology [4]. Group 2: TSMC's Capacity and Order Adjustments - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity remains near full utilization, but there are indications of a potential decrease in orders as the lifecycle of NVIDIA's previous GPU generation ends [1][3]. - Reports suggest that TSMC's CoWoS average monthly capacity has dropped to 62,500 wafers, below the expected 70,000 wafers, with NVIDIA's monthly orders also reduced from approximately 42,000 to 39,000 wafers [3]. - Despite rumors of order cuts, TSMC has denied these claims, stating that demand for CoWoS remains strong and that any perceived reductions may be due to process upgrades and product transitions [2][3]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Industry Trends - TSMC is ramping up production at its newly acquired facilities to meet the growing demand for advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS-L and SoIC [4]. - The industry anticipates that the new Rubin GPU and Vera CPU developments will contribute positively to market dynamics, with production expected to begin early next year [2].