证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 强劲增长 l 投资要点 三温、大平台超多工位测试分选机持续放量。根据 SEMI 数据， 2025 年全球半导体测试设备销售额预计激增 48.1%至 112 亿美元，封 装设备销售额增长 19.6%至 64 亿美元。2026、2027 年测试设备销售 额预计继续增长 12.0%和 7.1%，封装设备销售额预计增长 9.2%和 6.9%。驱动力来自器件架构复杂度提升、先进/异构封装加速渗透， 以及 AI 与 HBM 对性能的严苛要求。公司所在的半导体封装和测试设 备领域需求持续增长，三温测试分选机及大平台超多工位测试分选机 （针对于效率要求更高的大规模、复杂测试）等需求持续增长，公司 测试分选机产品销量实现较大提升，经财务部门初步测算，预计2025 年度实现归母净利润 1.6-2.1 亿元，同比增加 103.87%-167.58%；扣 非归母净利润 1.55-2.05 亿元，同比增加 128.83%-202.64%。 算力、汽车、先进封装等发展催涨分选机需求。Chiplet 架构在 AI 训练芯片、HPC 处理器中的广泛应用，使得 ...

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 277.08 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）0.60 | / 0.42 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）166 | / 116 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 303.69 / 70.00 | | 资产负债率(%) | 17.7% | | 市盈率 | 205.24 | | 第一大股东 | 崔学峰 | 研究所 分析师:翟一梦 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040003 Email:zhaiyimeng@cnpsec.com 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 金海通(603061) 强劲增长 l 投资要点 三温、大平台超多工位测试分选机持续放量。根据 SEMI 数据， 2025 年全球半导体测试设备销售额预计激增 48.1%至 112 亿美元，封 装设备销售额增长 19.6%至 64 亿美元。2026、2027 年测试设备销售 额预计继续增长 12.0%和 7.1%，封装设备 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 台积电10日召开董事会，拍板八大议案，季配息6元不变，另外核准2025 年员工业绩奖金与酬劳 （分红）总计约新台币2,061 亿4,592 万元（新台币，下同）创新高。 台积电说明董事会会中重要决议如下： 一、 核准2025 年营业报告书及财务报表，其中全年合并营收约为新台币3 兆8,090 亿5,400 万 元，税后净利约为新台币1 兆7,178 亿8,300 万元，每股盈余为新台币66.25 元。 二、 核准配发2025 年第4 季之每股现金股利6.0 元，其普通股配息基准日订定为2026 年6 月17 日，除息交易日则为2026 年6 月11 日。依公司法第一六五条规定，在公司决定分派股息之基准日 前五日内，亦即自2026 年6 月13 日起至6 月17 日止，停止普通股股票过户，并于2026 年7 月9 日发放。此外，台积公司在美国纽约证券交易所上市之美国存托凭证之除息交易日及配息基准日皆 为2026 年6 月11 日。 三、 核准2025 年员工业绩奖金与酬劳（分红）总计约新台币2,061 亿4,592 万元，其中员工业绩 奖金约新台币1,030 亿7,29 ...

TEL：3QFY26业绩承压但符合预期；客户交期提前或推动4Q反弹，上调全年指引 【业绩回顾】3QFY26营收JPY552.0bn，同比-15.7%，不及预期10%；营业利润JPY116.1bn，同比-41.8%，不及预 期27%；净利润JPY118.5bn，同比-24.6%，不及预期12%。 主因Q3为传统淡季且成熟制程业务需求承压，部分设备订单尚未转为营收。 TEL：3QFY26业绩承压但符合预期；客户交期提前或推动4Q反弹，上调全年指引 【业绩回顾】3QFY26营收JPY552.0bn，同比-15.7%，不及预期10%；营业利润JPY116.1bn，同比-41.8%，不及预 期27%；净利润JPY118.5bn，同比-24.6%，不及预期12%。 主因Q3为传统淡季且成熟制程业务需求承压，部分设备订单尚未转为营收。 【业务拆分 【业务拆分】中国市场3Q营收占比下滑，2026年预计持平 1）按部门拆分，3Q26 SPE新设备/Field Solutions营收分别达JPY385.1bn/JPY161.6bn（-24.6%/+14.2%yoy），占比 70%/30%。 其中，SPE新设备按应用拆分看： Q3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) has seen its stock price nearly triple in six months, leading to a significant re-evaluation of its market position, now being compared to ASML, the only true monopoly in semiconductor manufacturing equipment [2][3]. Group 1: Valuation and Market Position - AMAT's stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of 34x, nearly double its 10-year median of approximately 18x, and approaching ASML's multiple of over 45x [2]. - The market is assigning AMAT valuations akin to scarcity, despite its business being essential but not irreplaceable [3][5]. - AMAT's revenue breakdown shows that Foundry/Logic accounts for 72%, DRAM for 18%, and Flash for 10%, with key clients including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [5]. Group 2: Business Complexity and Growth Drivers - The increasing complexity of semiconductor manufacturing is a key growth driver, with AMAT estimating that each 100,000 wafer starts at a leading-edge GAA node can yield $1 billion in additional revenue [6]. - AMAT's Centura Sculpta tool minimizes EUV double patterning, saving clients $250 million in capital expenditures for every 100,000 wafer starts, while also reducing water and energy consumption by 20% [7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Revenue Impact - Approximately 35% of AMAT's revenue comes from China, and new U.S. export restrictions are expected to create a revenue headwind of $600 million in fiscal 2026 [9]. - In contrast, ASML's exposure to China is mitigated, as it has not delivered EUV tools to China for several years, representing a mid-teens percentage of its revenue [10]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - AMAT reported $28.37 billion in FY2025 revenue, with expected growth driven by the transition to 2nm GAA and HBM ramps, projected to add roughly $1.13 billion in incremental revenue [11]. - By 2028, revenue could increase by approximately $4.8 billion, suggesting a 10% compound annual growth rate from 2026 [12]. - The last twelve months' free cash flow was around $5.73 billion, with projections to reach approximately $6.5 billion by 2027 [12]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - AMAT is becoming increasingly vital in the AI era but remains susceptible to cycles, competition, and geopolitical influences [13]. - Positive factors include GAA complexity, demand for HBM/AI, and leadership in advanced packaging, while negative factors involve the impact on China services and capital expenditure volatility [14].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangbolong Electronics is expected to achieve significant growth in its 2025 performance forecast, driven by a recovery in the storage industry and the company's technological and product advantages [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 1.25 billion to 1.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 150.66% to 210.82% [1][2] - The expected non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 1.13 billion to 1.35 billion yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 578.51% to 710.6% [1][2] - Revenue is forecasted to be between 22.5 billion to 23 billion yuan, compared to 17.464 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][2] Industry Dynamics - The demand for AI servers and the shift of original manufacturers towards enterprise-level products are driving up storage product prices [1] - Jiangbolong has successfully turned a profit in the first half of the year, with a steady increase in profitability in the second half, particularly in Q4 where the non-recurring net profit is estimated to be between 650 million to 870 million yuan [1] - The company has achieved mass application of several main control chips and completed the first tape-out of the UFS4.1 main control chip, positioning itself as one of the few companies globally with self-research capabilities in this generation of main control chips [1] Market Outlook - The market perceives that server demand is the primary driver for storage needs, but the upgrade cycle of smartphones, particularly iPhones, is also contributing to the current storage price increases [3] - The global HBM market is projected to grow from 5.61 billion dollars in 2024 to 57.09 billion dollars by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.1% [3] - Major manufacturers like Micron have sold out their HBM capacity for 2025, and enterprise SSD demand is expected to increase by over 30% [3] Future Catalysts - The ongoing storage upgrade cycle for iPhones is expected to continue, with anticipated enhancements in storage parameters for new models in 2026, further driving up storage prices [4] - Continuous upgrades in server computing power are likely to sustain long-term demand for HBM, providing support for Jiangbolong's future development [4] - Recent supply chain research indicates that DRAM and NAND flash prices have entered an upward trend since the end of 2025, which may continue into early 2026, benefiting related companies in the storage industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - Feikai Materials (300398) is actively involved in the semiconductor advanced packaging sector, focusing on the production of functional wet electronic chemicals, solder balls, and EMC epoxy encapsulants, which are applicable in HBF and HBM manufacturing processes [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company has achieved stable mass production of functional wet electronic chemicals, solder balls, and EMC epoxy encapsulants for HBF and HBM manufacturing processes [1] - The packaging processes for HBF and HBM involve wafer thinning, stacking, and encapsulation, for which the company has developed temporary bonding materials, LMC liquid encapsulation materials, and GMC particle encapsulation materials [1] - Currently, these materials are in the verification and introduction stage and have not yet generated scaled revenue [1] Group 2: Collaboration and Innovation - The company is closely collaborating with relevant manufacturers to develop and test related materials, aiming to enhance the maturity and reliability of HBF and HBM process technologies [1] - Future efforts will continue to focus on customer cutting-edge demands, driving the iteration and innovation of material technologies [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of timely and professional information interpretation in investment decision-making [1] - HBM+ chip packaging company has started mass production of HBM2e and is advancing the tape-out of HBM3/3e, with applications in CPU, GPU, AI, and automotive high-performance chips [1] - PCB products are utilized in humanoid robots and AI servers, with the company achieving delivery and certification of 800G/1.6T optical modules [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery after a deep adjustment, prompting major packaging and testing companies to take action, exemplified by Tongfu Microelectronics' plan to raise up to 4.4 billion yuan through a private placement to enhance its capabilities in key areas such as memory chip packaging, automotive electronics, wafer-level packaging, and high-performance computing [1][5]. Group 1: Financing and Investment Plans - Tongfu Microelectronics plans to raise a maximum of 4.4 billion yuan through a private placement, with funds allocated to four key projects: memory chip packaging capacity enhancement (800 million yuan), automotive and emerging application packaging capacity enhancement (1.055 billion yuan), wafer-level packaging capacity enhancement (695 million yuan), and high-performance computing and communication packaging capacity enhancement (620 million yuan) [6]. - The company aims to seize industry opportunities through capacity upgrades and technological iterations, thereby solidifying its core competitiveness in high-end packaging and testing [5]. Group 2: Historical Context and Growth Challenges - Since its listing in 2007, Tongfu Microelectronics has relied on significant capital injections for expansion, leading to a high-debt, asset-heavy operational model and profitability challenges [6]. - The company has undergone multiple phases of growth, including a major acquisition in 2016 and a significant capital increase in 2020, which supported its revenue growth but also resulted in heavy depreciation burdens that hindered net profit growth [7]. - The recent 4.4 billion yuan private placement is seen as a strategic move to transition from capital-dependent expansion to technology-driven growth, aiming to convert revenue scale into quality profits [7]. Group 3: Customer Dependency and Financial Performance - Tongfu Microelectronics' rapid growth is closely tied to its deep relationship with AMD, which has significantly influenced its revenue trajectory, but also created a dependency that constrains its financial model [8]. - The company's revenue reached 22.27 billion yuan in 2023, but its net profit was only 169 million yuan, highlighting a significant disparity between revenue growth and profitability [9]. - The company's valuation is perceived as discounted due to concerns over customer concentration risk and profit volatility, indicating a need to improve growth certainty and quality [10]. Group 4: Shareholder Returns and Corporate Governance - Despite frequent equity financing for expansion, the company's low cash dividend policy and the controlling shareholder's selling behavior have raised questions about the alignment of long-term interests [11]. - The cumulative cash dividends since its listing amount to only 454 million yuan, representing a low average dividend payout ratio of 9.68% compared to its net profit [12]. Group 5: Future Challenges and Risks - The company faces ongoing challenges related to high capital expenditures and depreciation pressures, which could impact profitability if new capacity is not fully utilized [14]. - Continuous and costly technological upgrades are necessary to maintain competitiveness in the rapidly evolving semiconductor industry [15]. - The company must address its reliance on a limited number of major customers, which poses a significant risk to its business model [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in the Japanese semiconductor equipment market, driven by AI-related demand and investments from TSMC in 2nm technology, with sales expected to reach historical highs in 2025 and 2026 [1][2][5] - The Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) revised its forecast for 2025 sales of Japanese semiconductor equipment from 4.8634 trillion yen to 4.9111 trillion yen, marking a 3.0% increase from 2024 and setting a record for the second consecutive year [1][2] - For 2026, SEAJ anticipates sales to rise to 5.5004 trillion yen, a 12.0% increase, with the sales surpassing 5 trillion yen for the first time in history [1][2] Group 2 - SEAJ projects that the sales for 2027 will be adjusted to 5.6104 trillion yen, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year increase, potentially marking the fourth consecutive year of record sales [2] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Japanese semiconductor equipment sales from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 5.6%, up from a previous estimate of 4.6% [2] - Japan's semiconductor equipment market holds a global market share of 30%, ranking second after the United States [2] Group 3 - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) predicts that global semiconductor sales will increase by 26.3% in 2026, reaching approximately $975.46 billion, driven by investments in AI data centers [3] - The global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are expected to reach a historical high of $133 billion in 2025, with continued growth projected for 2026 and 2027 [5][6] - The growth in semiconductor equipment sales is primarily driven by investments in advanced logic, memory, and advanced packaging technologies related to AI [5][7]