Summary of J.P. Morgan's Research on China's October Exports Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese export industry**, highlighting the performance of exports in October 2025. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Export Decline**: China's October exports fell by **1.1% year-on-year (yoy)** and **3.9% month-on-month (m/m)**, which was more than expected. This decline is attributed to broad-based weaknesses across major markets and product categories, marking one of the most disappointing results in recent months [1][2][4] 2. **US Exports**: Despite the overall decline, exports to the **US** increased by **3.1% m/m**, adding to a **4.8% increase in September**. This rise occurred amidst renewed US-China tensions, indicating a complex trade relationship [2][3][4] 3. **Industrial Production Impact**: The sharper contraction in exports suggests that **October's industrial production** may underperform expectations, with forecasts indicating a **0.1% m/m decline** [1][4] 4. **Trade Surplus**: The trade surplus stabilized at **US$90.1 billion**, with the surplus for the first ten months reaching **US$965.2 billion**, up from **US$790.1 billion** a year ago. This positions the full-year figure to exceed **US$1 trillion** [2][4] 5. **Import Trends**: Imports also showed weakness, declining by **1.6% m/m** and annual growth sliding to **1.0% yoy** from **7.4%** in September. This indicates a broader trend of reduced demand for foreign goods [2][4] 6. **Product-Specific Declines**: Notable declines in exports included **ADP machines (-8% m/m)**, **integrated circuits (-4.3%)**, and **mobile phones (-4.4%)**. This reflects a significant downturn in key technology sectors [4][5] 7. **Future Outlook**: A modest recovery is expected towards the year-end, supported by a rebound in port shipping and festival demand. Full-year exports are projected to rise by **5% yoy** if current assumptions hold [4][12] 8. **US-China Trade Relations**: The recent **Trump-Xi summit** resulted in tariff cuts and a one-year truce on reciprocal tariffs, but uncertainty remains regarding export controls and agricultural purchases. The lack of alignment in statements from both sides adds to the unpredictability of future trade policies [7][10] Additional Important Insights - **Seasonal Effects**: The October decline is partly attributed to **Golden Week holiday seasonality**, which affected shipping volumes. A rebound in shipping activity is anticipated as holiday effects fade [1][4][12] - **Strategic De-risking**: Ongoing strategic de-risking efforts between the US and China are expected to persist, with both sides showing willingness to compromise while maintaining competitive tensions [10][12] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from J.P. Morgan's analysis of China's export performance in October 2025, highlighting the challenges and potential recovery paths for the industry.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $791 million, a sequential increase of 4% and 2% above the midpoint of guidance [4][18] - Year-over-year revenue growth was 8%, driven by an 8% increase in volume and a 2% positive foreign currency impact [18] - Gross profit was $154 million, resulting in a gross margin of 19.5%, slightly below the midpoint of guidance [19] - Book-to-bill ratio for the quarter was 0.97, with a backlog of $1.2 billion [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive revenue increased by 7% quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher volume in the Americas and Europe [8] - Industrial segment revenue grew by 2%, supported by shipments to smart grid infrastructure projects [9] - Aerospace defense revenue decreased by 2% quarter-over-quarter due to slow funding releases [11] - Medical segment revenue grew by 2%, reflecting increased activity from longstanding customers [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Orders were up 19% year-over-year, indicating improvements in automotive, smart grid infrastructure, aerospace defense, and AI-related power requirements [6] - Asia saw the greatest growth, particularly from automotive customers and sales to distributors [4][5] - Distribution revenue increased by 4%, with most growth coming from Asia [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing its five-year strategic plan, Vishay 3.0, focusing on capacity investments and expanding product offerings [4][28] - Significant investments in capacity expansion are ongoing, with $179 million spent year-to-date and expectations to spend $300 million-$350 million for the year [28] - The company aims to improve margins by addressing operational efficiencies and passing on increased metal costs to customers [49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that conditions are improving across several market segments, with expectations for mid-single-digit to high-single-digit growth in 2026 [47][48] - The company is focused on supporting automotive OEMs and tier one suppliers to prevent production line downs [64] - Management expressed optimism about the potential for revenue growth driven by government spending in aerospace defense and smart grid infrastructure [46] Other Important Information - The company generated $28 million in operating cash for Q3, with total CapEx of $52 million [23] - Free cash flow for the quarter was -$24 million, reflecting ongoing capacity expansion investments [23] - The company plans to maintain its dividend policy while managing liquidity needs [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did Vishay see any benefit from the export restrictions on Nexperia in the automotive segment? - Management indicated ongoing discussions with OEMs and tier ones, noting opportunities but not including them in Q4 revenue guidance due to current shortages [36] Question: What factors impacted gross margin in Q3? - Management cited elevated metals prices and operational issues as key factors affecting gross margin, with plans to pass costs onto customers [39][40] Question: What is the outlook for revenue growth and margin expansion in 2026? - Management expressed confidence in achieving revenue growth aligned with consensus estimates, driven by multiple positive market segments [48][49] Question: Can you elaborate on the capital return strategy? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining dividends while prioritizing liquidity needs over share buybacks at this time [50]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $791 million, a sequential increase of 4% and 2% above the midpoint of guidance, with a year-over-year increase of 8% [4][18] - Gross profit was $154 million, resulting in a gross margin of 19.5%, slightly below the midpoint of guidance and flat compared to Q2 [19] - Book-to-bill ratio for the quarter was 0.97, with a backlog of $1.2 billion, flat from the previous quarter [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive revenue increased by 7% quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher volume in the Americas and Europe [8] - Industrial segment revenue grew by 2%, supported by shipments to smart grid infrastructure projects [9] - Medical market segment revenue rose by 2%, reflecting increased activity from larger customers [11] - Revenue from computing, consumer, and telecom markets increased by 4%, driven by demand for AI servers [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Orders were up 19% year-over-year, indicating improving conditions in automotive, smart grid infrastructure, aerospace defense, and AI-related power requirements [6] - Asia saw the greatest growth in sales, particularly from automotive customers and distributors [4][5] - Distribution revenue increased by 4%, with most growth coming from Asia [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing its five-year strategic plan, Vishay 3.0, focusing on capacity expansion and innovation [4][28] - Significant investments in capacity expansion are ongoing, with $179 million spent year-to-date and an expected total of $300 million to $350 million for the year [28] - The company aims to improve margins and returns on capital through operational efficiencies and passing on increased metal costs to customers [49] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that conditions are improving across several market segments, with expectations for mid-single-digit to high-single-digit growth in 2026 [48] - The company is focused on addressing customer needs and preventing production line downs, particularly in the automotive sector [64] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to meet quick-turn delivery requests while maintaining competitive lead times [7][32] Other Important Information - The company reported a negative free cash flow of $24 million for the quarter, with a focus on maintaining dividends despite ongoing capacity expansion [23][26] - The effective tax rate remains low due to minimal pre-tax income, with expectations for normalization as profitability returns [21][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did Vishay see any benefit from the export restrictions on Nexperia in the automotive segment? - Management indicated ongoing discussions with OEMs and tier ones, noting opportunities but not including them in Q4 revenue guidance due to current shortages [36] Question: What factors impacted gross margin in Q3? - Management cited elevated metals prices and operational issues as key factors affecting gross margin, with plans to pass costs onto customers [39][40] Question: How does the company view growth and margin expectations for fiscal 2026? - Management expressed optimism about growth driven by five key market segments, aligning with consensus estimates for revenue growth of around 7% [48][49] Question: Can you elaborate on the capital return strategy? - Management emphasized the importance of dividends and indicated no plans for share buybacks at this time due to current liquidity needs [50]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $791 million, a sequential increase of 4% and 2% above the midpoint of guidance, with many market segments showing growth [5][19] - Year-over-year revenue increased by 8%, reflecting an 8% increase in volume and a 2% positive foreign currency impact [19] - Gross profit was $154 million, resulting in a gross margin of 19.5%, slightly below the midpoint of guidance and flat compared to Q2 [20] - Adjusted earnings per share for Q3 2025 was $0.04, compared to a net loss per share of $0.07 in Q2 2025 [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive revenue increased by 7% versus Q2, driven by higher volume in the Americas and Europe [9] - Industrial segment revenue grew by 2%, primarily due to shipments of capacitors for smart grid infrastructure projects [10] - Aerospace defense revenue decreased by 2% quarter-over-quarter due to slow funding releases from the U.S. Department of Defense [12] - Medical market revenue grew by 2%, supported by increased activity from longstanding customers [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asia achieved the greatest growth in Q3, particularly from automotive customers and sales to distributors [5][6] - Distribution revenue increased by 4%, with nearly all growth coming from Asia [16] - Book-to-bill ratio for the quarter was 0.97, with a run rate of 1.15 for October, indicating improving order conditions [19][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing its five-year strategic plan, Vishay 3.0, focusing on capacity investments and expanding product offerings [5][28] - Investments in capacity expansion are expected to be between $300 million and $350 million for the year, with a significant portion allocated to high-growth products [28] - The company aims to enhance customer engagement and cross-sell products across its portfolio [33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that market signals remain directionally positive, with increasing demand from automotive, AI servers, smart grid infrastructure, and medical sectors [31] - The company expects revenue growth in 2026, driven by five key market segments showing positive signs [42] - Management is focused on improving gross margins and operational efficiencies, with plans to achieve margin neutrality at the Newport facility by the end of Q1 2026 [43] Other Important Information - The company generated $28 million in operating cash for Q3, with total CapEx for the quarter at $52 million [24] - Free cash flow for the quarter was negative $24 million, but improved from negative $73 million in Q2 [24] - The company plans to maintain its dividend policy while managing liquidity and capital needs [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did Vishay see any benefit from the export restrictions on Nexperia in the automotive segment? - Management indicated ongoing discussions with OEMs and tier ones, noting opportunities arising from the situation, but did not include it in Q4 revenue guidance due to the dynamic nature of the market [34] Question: What factors impacted gross margin in Q3? - Management cited elevated metals prices and operational issues as key factors affecting gross margin, with plans to pass costs onto customers [35][36] Question: What is the outlook for revenue growth and margin expansion in 2026? - Management expressed confidence in achieving revenue growth aligned with consensus estimates, supported by positive market drivers and customer engagements [42] Question: How is the capital return strategy prioritized? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining dividends while managing liquidity, indicating no current plans for share buybacks [45]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economic** landscape, particularly regarding **export and import trends** as of August 2024. Key Insights on Exports - **Export Growth Moderation**: China's export growth slowed to **4.4%** in August from **7.2%** previously, falling short of the **5.5%** expected by Bloomberg consensus. This marks the slowest year-over-year growth since January-February [1] - **Real Terms Adjustment**: In real terms, export growth moderated to **7.1%** year-over-year from **10.2%** previously, indicating a softening momentum despite stable shipment levels [1] - **US Shipments Decline**: Shipments to the US contracted by **13%** month-over-month in August, with a **33%** year-over-year decline, reflecting the impact of elevated tariffs compared to other exporters [2] - **Positive Trends in Other Markets**: Shipments to the EU and Japan improved, with ASEAN exports, particularly to Vietnam, reaching historic highs [2] - **Tech Goods Performance**: Export growth of tech products accelerated to **6.2%** in August, driven by component-type products like ICs and panels, while consumer goods continued to drag overall export growth [3] Import Trends - **Import Growth**: Import growth moderated to **1.3%** year-over-year from **4.1%**, marking three consecutive months of year-over-year growth, a rare occurrence since the second half of 2022 [4] - **Commodity Imports Decline**: The major commodities basket saw a year-over-year import value decline of **9.6%**, contributing to slower overall import growth [4] - **Tech Component Imports**: Growth in imports of tech components moderated, raising concerns about the sustainability of China's tech export growth acceleration [4] Economic Outlook - **Upside Risk to Projections**: Despite moderating export growth expectations, the year-to-date export growth stands at **5.9%**, suggesting significant upside risk to the full-year 2025 export growth projection of **1%** [6] - **Improving Demand Indicators**: Soft data, including improvements in new export orders from China's official PMI and RatingDog PMI, indicate potential resilience in export levels [6] Additional Observations - **Consumer Goods Impact**: The wider year-over-year contraction in the consumer goods basket was identified as the biggest drag on overall export growth deceleration [3] - **RMB Performance**: The RMB appreciated modestly against the USD over August, which may influence trade dynamics [28] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of China's export and import activities, along with economic projections and market dynamics.