- - 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月5日 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 A股主要指数企稳,但量能收缩,低波动率持续月 IF2512 余。短期建议谨慎观望,单边操作难度较大,逢回 IH2512 股指 A股持续缩量低波,顺周期结构性上行 调可轻仓、分段布局中证1000看跌期权牛市价差 IC2512 IM2512 昨日债市出现大跌,并非出于基本面增量信息,更 T2603 多或是在交易货币政策和财政政策预期,机构行为 债市交投情绪脆弱,超长债领跌 TF2603 国债 为行情放大器。单边策略上建议暂时观望,关注政 TS2603 治局会议和债基赎回费新规落地情况。曲线策略 TL2603 上,或仍倾向与走陡。 金融 金价在4200美元附近转入震荡前高位置仍有阻 力,建议单边谨慎追多,可卖出虚值看跌期权赚取 AU2602 时间价值:白银震荡偏强上方可能触及60美元, AG2602 贵金属 宏观消息面平淡 市场缺少方向指引黄金高位震荡白银回调 投资者在积累一定浮盈后建议适当锁仓避免多头回 PT2606 补等带来回调;铂把保持日内短线高抛低吸操作思 PD2606 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Equity Index**: Domestic equity indices are resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. In Q4 2025, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations include periodic corrections and rebounds, with limited downside risks. The technology sector is showing a structural recovery, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to wait and see, and one can try to lightly sell put options at support levels [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term weak market sentiment may continue. Potential factors to break the current range include the implementation of new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. It is recommended to wait and see for the single - side strategy, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract in the cash - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have broken through previous resistance and are expected to rise above $4200. Silver prices may approach the previous high of $54 under the influence of the delivery period. Long positions can be held. For platinum, a low - buying strategy is recommended, or one can buy out - of - the - money call options and try a long - platinum short - palladium hedge [2]. - **Shipping Index**: The EC (European Line) main contract is weakly oscillating, with a short - term weak trend [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel mills are reducing production. A long - steel short - iron ore arbitrage and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar are recommended. Iron ore is oscillating in the range of 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is viewed as oscillating downward, with a range of 1010 - 1120, and a 1 - 5 spread arbitrage can be considered. Coke is also expected to oscillate downward after four rounds of price increases, with a range of 1500 - 1650 [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Different non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper is in a certain price range, and tin prices are strongly oscillating. Specific trading strategies are provided for each metal [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures have their own price trends. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see due to large intraday fluctuations [2]. - **Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and price trend. For example, PTA is expected to have a short - term high - level oscillation, and short - fiber processing fees are expected to be compressed [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil may test the resistance at 8600, and sugar is in a bottom - level oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Equity Index**: IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512 are in a narrow - range oscillation. The A - share market is in adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see or lightly sell put options [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: TF2603, TS2603, TI2603 are oscillating downward. Wait and see for single - side strategies and consider positive arbitrage for the 2603 contract [2]. - **Precious Metals**: AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, PD2606 have different price trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: RB2601, I2601. Steel mills' production cuts lead to a long - steel short - iron ore arbitrage strategy. Iron ore oscillates between 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: JM2601, J2601. Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate downward, with specific price ranges and arbitrage suggestions [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper, Aluminum, etc.**: CU2601, AL2601, etc. Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market conditions [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon and Lithium Carbonate**: PS2601, LC2605. Polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation, and lithium carbonate has large intraday fluctuations, with a wait - and - see recommendation [2]. Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, etc.**: PX2601, TA2601, etc. Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading strategies [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains, Oils, etc.**: M2601, RM601, LH2601, etc. Different agricultural products have different price trends and trading suggestions, such as long - short arbitrage for some products [2].