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广发期货日评-20251216
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-16 01:49
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations of various futures contracts, covering multiple sectors such as finance, metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selected Views - NI2601 is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - L2601 (LLDPE) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - rb2501 (coking coal) is expected to rebound from the bottom [3]. - M2605 (soybean meal) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Full - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to weak economic data in November, the stock index continued to trade in a shrinking - volume range. There is no clear upward trend, and the market lacks a dominant theme. It is advisable to be cautious about the risk of chasing highs in the trading range and appropriately lay out bull spreads at low levels [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still insensitive to economic data. In the absence of allocation demand, ultra - long bonds are weak. The upper limit of the 10 - year yield is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. T2603 should pay attention to the support around 107.6. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider the market as a narrow - range fluctuation. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage and basis widening opportunities of the 2603 contract [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold needs to build momentum to break through the previous high. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data and Fed officials' statements on market sentiment. Buy gold below $4,300. Silver may enter the overbought zone, so it is recommended to wait and see. For platinum and palladium, operate based on the external market, buy on dips, or use out - of - the - money call options instead of long positions, and control positions [3]. 3.2.2 Commodity Futures Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the range of 730 - 780. Consider the opportunity to expand the ratio of rebar to iron ore as iron water production drops. Go long on the January rebar - to - iron ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is expected to trade in the range of 1,000 - 1,150, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Coke is expected to trade in the range of 1,450 - 1,600, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, hold long - term long positions and pay attention to the support at 90,000 - 91,000. For aluminum, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21,700 - 22,400, and go long on dips. For zinc, pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,200 and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage. For tin, hold previous long positions and buy on dips. For nickel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 110,000 - 118,000. For stainless steel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12,200 - 12,800 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Petrochemicals**: PX is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. PTA is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the low - level positive spread opportunity for TA5 - 9. For short - fiber, the processing fee is mainly compressed, and the operation is the same as PTA. For bottle - grade polyester, the inventory decline supports the processing fee, and pay attention to the device restart and production progress. For ethanol, sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: For natural rubber, the price is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see. For synthetic rubber, due to the strengthening of the cost side, BR has risen strongly, and sell BR2602 - C - 11200 at high prices [3]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: For soybeans and soybean meal, the US soybeans have no bright spots, and pay attention to China's soybean customs clearance policy. For corn, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the price is expected to be volatile and adjust. For edible oils, the US biodiesel blending quota is undecided, which may be negative for the oil market. The main contract of palm oil may test the support at 8,200 - 8,300 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: For pigs, the market is in a bottom - grinding phase. For eggs, pay attention to the support at the previous low. For apples, the price is expected to be volatile around 9,500 in the short term. For dates, high - sell and low - buy due to supply pressure and weak demand [3]. - **Cash Crops**: For sugar, the price is expected to be weakly volatile. For cotton, the price is expected to be strongly volatile, and pay attention to the resistance around 14,050 - 14,100 [3].
广发期货日评-20251212
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 02:57
欢迎关注微信公众号 | | | | 【每日精选观点】 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 合约 | 观点 | | | | 場 | SN2601 | 農汤偏強 | | | | PVC | V2601 | 过剩预期仍在,价格持续寻底 | | | | 焦煤 | rb2505 | 農荡偏弱 | | | | 菜油 | O1605 | 農荡偏強 | | | | | | 【全品种日评】 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IH2512 IC2512 | | 美联储本次会后公布决定继续降息25bp,其发言 态度对通胀乐观,并将启动短债买入,超预期鸽 派,短期全球流动性预期改善,但市场未形成上涨 | | | | IF2512 | | | | | 股指 | | 降息靴子落地,A股冲高回落 | 合力。国内中央经济工作会议召开,对2026年宽 | | | | IM2512 | | 财政、宽货币定调,稳定信心。当前市场成交情绪 | | | | | | 不高,谨慎对待震荡区间追高风险,适当逢低轻仓 布局牛市价差。 | | | | | | ...
全品种价差日报-20251210
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 03:12
| 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 0.29% | 57.40% | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5462 | 16 | 5478 | 0.84% | 48 | 硅罐 (SM603) | 5780 | 5732 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 34.70% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5.88% | 181 | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3260 | 3079 | 69.40% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | -2 | 3252 | -0:06% | 17.60% | 3250 | 热卷 (HC2605) | | | | | | 74 | 832 | 758 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 9.83% | 57.80% | 铁矿石 (12605) | 5.85% | 1603 | 89 | 焦炭 ...
广发期货日评-20251205
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 05:17
- - 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月5日 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 A股主要指数企稳,但量能收缩,低波动率持续月 IF2512 余。短期建议谨慎观望,单边操作难度较大,逢回 IH2512 股指 A股持续缩量低波,顺周期结构性上行 调可轻仓、分段布局中证1000看跌期权牛市价差 IC2512 IM2512 昨日债市出现大跌,并非出于基本面增量信息,更 T2603 多或是在交易货币政策和财政政策预期,机构行为 债市交投情绪脆弱,超长债领跌 TF2603 国债 为行情放大器。单边策略上建议暂时观望,关注政 TS2603 治局会议和债基赎回费新规落地情况。曲线策略 TL2603 上,或仍倾向与走陡。 金融 金价在4200美元附近转入震荡前高位置仍有阻 力,建议单边谨慎追多,可卖出虚值看跌期权赚取 AU2602 时间价值:白银震荡偏强上方可能触及60美元, AG2602 贵金属 宏观消息面平淡 市场缺少方向指引黄金高位震荡白银回调 投资者在积累一定浮盈后建议适当锁仓避免多头回 PT2606 补等带来回调;铂把保持日内短线高抛低吸操作思 PD2606 ...
广发期货日评-20251204
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 02:38
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].
广发期货日评-20251203
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 03:35
免费声明:本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证・在任何情况下。报告内容仅供参考, 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 欢迎关注微信公众号 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2512 | | 临近12月美联储议息会议,美元指数近期见顶回 落,继续降息仍是大概率情景,A股主要指数亦有 | | | | IH2512 | | 反弹,但量能尚不支持突破。短期可轻仓卖出12 | | | 股指 | IC2512 | A股缩量收跌,资金流向防御型板块 | 月看跌期权。波动率仍处于低位,盘面尚未显现对 | | | | IM2512 | | 12月政策会议的预期定价,逢回调亦可分阶段缓 | | | | | | 慢建仓牛市价差,布局春季行情。 | | | | T2603 | | 短期债市仍缺乏突破震荡的驱动因素,或仍难摆脱 | | | 国债 | TF2603 | 央行买债规模未超预期,债市整体偏弱震荡 ...
广发期货日评-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 02:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Equity Index**: Domestic equity indices are resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. In Q4 2025, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations include periodic corrections and rebounds, with limited downside risks. The technology sector is showing a structural recovery, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to wait and see, and one can try to lightly sell put options at support levels [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term weak market sentiment may continue. Potential factors to break the current range include the implementation of new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. It is recommended to wait and see for the single - side strategy, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract in the cash - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have broken through previous resistance and are expected to rise above $4200. Silver prices may approach the previous high of $54 under the influence of the delivery period. Long positions can be held. For platinum, a low - buying strategy is recommended, or one can buy out - of - the - money call options and try a long - platinum short - palladium hedge [2]. - **Shipping Index**: The EC (European Line) main contract is weakly oscillating, with a short - term weak trend [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel mills are reducing production. A long - steel short - iron ore arbitrage and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar are recommended. Iron ore is oscillating in the range of 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is viewed as oscillating downward, with a range of 1010 - 1120, and a 1 - 5 spread arbitrage can be considered. Coke is also expected to oscillate downward after four rounds of price increases, with a range of 1500 - 1650 [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Different non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper is in a certain price range, and tin prices are strongly oscillating. Specific trading strategies are provided for each metal [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures have their own price trends. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see due to large intraday fluctuations [2]. - **Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and price trend. For example, PTA is expected to have a short - term high - level oscillation, and short - fiber processing fees are expected to be compressed [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil may test the resistance at 8600, and sugar is in a bottom - level oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Equity Index**: IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512 are in a narrow - range oscillation. The A - share market is in adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see or lightly sell put options [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: TF2603, TS2603, TI2603 are oscillating downward. Wait and see for single - side strategies and consider positive arbitrage for the 2603 contract [2]. - **Precious Metals**: AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, PD2606 have different price trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: RB2601, I2601. Steel mills' production cuts lead to a long - steel short - iron ore arbitrage strategy. Iron ore oscillates between 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: JM2601, J2601. Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate downward, with specific price ranges and arbitrage suggestions [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper, Aluminum, etc.**: CU2601, AL2601, etc. Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market conditions [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon and Lithium Carbonate**: PS2601, LC2605. Polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation, and lithium carbonate has large intraday fluctuations, with a wait - and - see recommendation [2]. Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, etc.**: PX2601, TA2601, etc. Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading strategies [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains, Oils, etc.**: M2601, RM601, LH2601, etc. Different agricultural products have different price trends and trading suggestions, such as long - short arbitrage for some products [2].
广发期货日评-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 05:08
Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic stock index is resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. After the third - quarter reports, A - shares are in a repricing adjustment, with short - term periodic callbacks and rebounds, and limited downside risks. The market volume is shrinking, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The short - term bond market is in a box - type shock stage. For 10 - year treasury bonds, the active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in a narrow range of 1.8% - 1.83%. Different treasury bond futures contracts have their respective expected fluctuation ranges. Unilateral, migration, and cash - futures strategies are recommended accordingly [2]. - Gold is currently oscillating in the range of $4050 - $4150, and may rise to over $4200 if it breaks through the resistance. Silver follows gold but has a larger amplitude, oscillating in the range of $50 - $52.5. Short - term light - position long positions can be tried if volatility increases [2]. - The container shipping index (European Line) is in short - term shock downward movement [2]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize with the recovery of apparent demand. Iron ore is oscillating with a bullish bias, while coking coal and coke are viewed as bearish in the shock [2]. - Copper prices have risen and then fallen due to stronger interest - rate cut expectations. Other non - ferrous metals have their own expected price ranges and trends [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, various products such as PTA, short - fiber, and others have different market trends and trading strategies recommended [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products like soybean meal, pigs, and others have different supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Category Financial - **Stock Index**: Domestic stock index is resilient. After the third - quarter reports, A - shares are repricing. Short - term periodic fluctuations with limited downside. Market volume shrinking, recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term box - type shock. Different contracts have specific expected fluctuation ranges. Unilateral, migration, and cash - futures strategies are recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold oscillates between $4050 - $4150, may rise above $4200 if breaking resistance. Silver fluctuates more with gold, in the range of $50 - $52.5. Short - term light - position long positions can be tried if volatility increases [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to stabilize due to apparent demand recovery. Recommend to pay attention to support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating with a bullish bias, in the range of 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Viewed as bearish in the shock, in the range of 1050 - 1150 [2]. - **Coke**: Viewed as bearish in the shock, in the range of 1550 - 1700 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices rise and then fall due to stronger interest - rate cut expectations, with a reference range of 85500 - 87500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: With a confrontation between strong expectations and weak reality, prices may decline further if the position continues to be reduced, with a reference range of 21100 - 21700 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each has its own expected price range and trading suggestions [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Petrochemical Products**: Different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber have different supply - demand situations and trading strategies [2]. - **Plastics and Chemicals**: Products like LLDPE, PP, and methanol have their own market trends and recommended operations [2]. - **Building Materials**: Glass rebounds with the cold - repair of production lines in Hubei, and other building materials have different trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber oscillates with limited short - term drivers, and synthetic rubber is expected to face pressure above [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different products such as soybean meal, corn, and palm oil have different supply - demand situations and trading strategies [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Pigs have supply pressure, and eggs have a slow de - capacity process [2]. - **Cash Crops**: Products like cotton, sugar, and apples have different market trends and trading suggestions [2].
广发期货日评-20251121
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 06:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic stock index futures show resilience with volatility decreasing. After Q3 reports, A - shares are in repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are common, and it's recommended to wait and see. Consider a bull spread of put options in case of a deep daily decline [2]. - Treasury bond futures had a differentiated performance yesterday. With limited driving forces, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. A range - trading strategy is recommended [2]. - Gold prices are oscillating between $4000 - $4200 due to mixed US non - farm data and cautious Fed officials. A double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money gold options can be considered. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and short - term observation or light - position trading is advised [2]. - The EC (European line) container shipping index futures are in short - term decline. It's recommended to close short positions [2]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize with improved apparent demand. Iron ore is oscillating, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For coking coal and coke, a bearish view is taken with specified price ranges [2]. - Copper prices are oscillating weakly as the probability of interest rate cuts decreases. For various non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are recommended according to their price trends [2]. - In the new energy and chemical sectors, prices of many products such as polysilicon and PTA are oscillating. Different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand situations [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, prices of products like soybean meal, palm oil, and sugar are showing different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic stock index futures are in a state of repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are normal, and it's recommended to wait and see. A bull spread of put options can be considered in case of a deep daily decline [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. A range - trading strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in the $4000 - $4200 range, and a double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money options can be used. Silver follows gold, and short - term observation or light - position trading is advised [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to stabilize with improved apparent demand [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended with a reference range of 750 - 810 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: A bearish view is taken with a price range of 1050 - 1200 [2]. - **Coke**: A bearish view is taken with a price range of 1550 - 1700 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are oscillating weakly. The main reference range is 85000 - 86500 [2]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals according to their price trends [2]. Energy and Chemical - **New Energy and Chemical Products**: Prices of products like polysilicon, PTA, and short - fiber are oscillating, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on supply - demand [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: For products like LLDPE, PP, and PVC, different trading strategies are recommended according to their price trends and supply - demand situations [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the support around 3000 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices are continuing to decline, and the main contract may reach 8900 in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended for products like sugar, cotton, and eggs according to their price trends [2].
广发期货日评-20251120
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 03:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Instead, it offers investment suggestions for various futures contracts in different sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic stock index shows resilience, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment, with short - term fluctuations and limited downside risks. [2] - The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield facing resistance around 1.8%. [2] - Precious metals are expected to find support at certain levels, with a suggestion to buy on dips. [2] - Different commodities in the black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural sectors have different price trends and corresponding investment strategies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic stock index futures are in a state of repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are common, and it is recommended to wait and see. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bull spread of put options can be arranged. [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. For the TL2512 contract, the fluctuation range is expected to be between 115.9 - 116.7, and an interval operation strategy is recommended. [2] Precious Metals - **Gold**: It is expected to find support around $4000 (925 yuan). A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money put options is suggested. [2] - **Silver**: It follows the trend of gold and is expected to find support around $49 (11,800 yuan). A light - position trial long strategy on dips is recommended. [2] Black Commodities - **Steel**: The volume of rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to increase, and the spread between them is expected to widen. Rebar and hot - rolled coil should respectively focus on the support levels of 3000 and 3200. [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Coking Coal**: It is viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1100 - 1200. [2] - **Coke**: It is also viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1600 - 1700. [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 85,500 - 87,500. [2] - **Aluminum**: Different aluminum - related contracts have different expected price ranges. Some may have short - term downward space. [2] - **Zinc**: Supported by supply reduction expectations, with a reference range of 22,200 - 22,800, and long positions should be held. [2] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong, and long positions should be held. [2] Energy - Chemical Commodities - **PX**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [2] - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. A rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 is recommended. [2] - **Short - fiber**: Similar to PTA, with a focus on reducing processing fees on rallies. [2] - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand pattern in November remains loose, and it follows the cost - end trend. [2] - **Ethanol**: There is short - term rigid demand support, but supply is high, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [2] - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] - **Styrene**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [2] - **LLDPE**: The price changes little, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **PP**: Due to unexpected maintenance, the downward space is limited, and short - position stop - profit is recommended. [2] - **Methanol**: The port market continues to weaken, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing MTO in the 05 contract. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction remains, and a bearish strategy is recommended. [2] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is weakening, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended. [2] - **Glass**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **Natural Rubber**: Supported by overseas raw materials, the price is rising, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to face pressure at the upper level, and a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, with attention to the pressure around 10,800. [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the support around 3000. [2] - **Pig**: There are signs of stabilization in the spot market, and a 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy should be held. [2] - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2200. [2] - **Edible Oils**: The price is rising, and the P contract may reach 8900 in the short term. [2] - **Sugar**: Under the pressure of production increase, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Cotton**: With a global bumper harvest and weak domestic downstream trading, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Egg**: The supply is still loose, and short - position stop - profit should be gradually carried out on dips for the 2512 contract. [2] - **Apple**: It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short term. [2] - **Jujube**: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support around 9000. [2]