国际白银在上周提示看涨目标预计可以看到55，实际最高则在54.5，周五走出大跌，最低在50.5附近，我们成功抓住了上周的大涨空间，同时避开了上周的 大跌空间。周五提示，可以在51支撑抄底做多看涨，如果有执行的朋友，可以继续持有多单，如果没有执行的朋友，本周依旧有机会做多。从技术面来 看，早盘回落至51.2后继续上涨，目前收高至52，今天支撑在51.5，可以继续在此点位做多看涨，长线来看，本周上方则关注53.5，54.5高点。 山海：黄金，白银已经抄底，等待本周的趋势上涨力度！ 上周的黄金，白银行情走势就是逼死空头，又打死多头，连续四个交易日的上涨，并且屡次刷新高点，但大都数朋友被周五的一波单边大跌200美金吓到 了，大家想想，今年黄金1800美金的上涨，会因为这200美金的下跌改变趋势吗？再说，国际地缘局势没有变，ETF黄金的增持还在增加，美联储依旧是强 调降息的必要性，这里众多因素都是看涨黄金，做多黄金的条件，所以，不要谈黄金，白银会改变趋势，出现大跌空间。本周继续保持多头趋势看涨，耐 心等待多头再次放量的空间。 山海还是要强调趋势的重要性，近期黄金虽然暴涨暴跌，但大体保持多头趋势不变，及时是大跌几百个点， ...

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on September 29, opening at $3756.94 per ounce, reaching a high of $3833.18, and closing at $3830.34 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 6.01 tons, bringing the total to 1011.73 tons [6] Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve's Williams indicated initial signs of labor market weakness, supporting a rate cut during the recent Fed meeting. He suggested that a slight reduction in rates could help boost the job market and apply downward pressure on inflation [3] - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in October is 10.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.8% [6] Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, which could impact the availability of key economic data for policymakers and investors [4] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce's chief policy officer stated that a government shutdown would not push the economy into recession but would increase uncertainty for businesses [4] Geopolitical Events - President Trump announced a 20-point plan aimed at ending the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which he described as a "historic day for peace." The plan includes provisions for the governance of Gaza and the return of hostages [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are showing signs of a strong bullish trend, with daily moving averages indicating upward momentum. However, there are indications of potential exhaustion in the bullish trend, suggesting caution for traders [8][9]

Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a peak of $3695.27 per ounce and a closing price of $3684.14 per ounce on September 17 [1] - The market saw a drop after reaching a high, with the lowest price recorded at $3660.03 per ounce during the same day [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, gold prices showed increased volatility, reaching a high of $3707 and a low of $3645 [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [2] - The dot plot indicates expectations for two more rate cuts this year, with one official predicting a total reduction of 150 basis points by year-end [2] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the next two years has been adjusted to 4.4% and 4.3%, reflecting increased downside risks in the labor market [2][3] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Growth - Inflation has shown signs of rising, with the overall PCE expected to increase by 2.7% year-on-year in August, and core PCE rising by 2.9% [3] - The GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, indicating a more optimistic outlook for economic growth [2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is considered to be temporary, contributing 0.3-0.4 percentage points to the core PCE price index [3]

Group 1 - International gold prices have maintained a high level, reaching the highest point since July 23, with a monthly increase of 3.6% as of now [3] - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell by 0.33% in overnight trading, has made gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen to 86%, reflecting in trading data [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices may challenge $3,450 per ounce, with a potential upward trend if prices surpass $3,400 per ounce [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers are gaining momentum, and if gold exceeds $3,438 per ounce, the next target will be the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce [4] - Conversely, if gold prices fall below the 20-day simple moving average of $3,364 per ounce, sellers may target the 50-day moving average at $3,348 per ounce [5]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations on May 21, opening at $3277.18 per ounce, reaching a high of $3320.61, a low of $3275.19, and closing at $3311.91 [1] Trade Relations - The EU is expected to share a revised trade proposal with the US to energize negotiations with the Trump administration, though skepticism remains about reaching a transatlantic agreement. The new document includes proposals that consider US interests, such as international labor rights, environmental standards, and economic security, aiming to gradually reduce tariffs on non-sensitive agricultural and industrial products to zero [2] - US Commerce Secretary Ross expressed hope to reach trade agreements with most major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer [3] Geopolitical Situation - Israeli sources indicate that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities amid a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations. Israeli military believes the operational window for a successful attack may soon close, leading to potential military actions lasting at least a week, which could have complex and dangerous implications for the region [5] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a decrease in holdings by 1.72 tons, bringing the total to 919.88 tons [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 94.6%, with a 5.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For July, the probability of maintaining rates is 73.1%, with cumulative probabilities of a 25 basis point cut at 25.7% and a 50 basis point cut at 1.2% [6] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a slight upward trend, with short-term resistance levels being tested. The market is currently in a consolidation phase after a significant rise, with technical indicators suggesting a cautious bullish outlook [9][10] Trading Strategy - Suggested trading ranges include aggressive buy positions around $3285 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and profit targets above $3305, as well as conservative buy positions around $3250 with similar stop loss and profit targets. For short positions, aggressive entry at $3328 with a stop loss and profit target below $3310 is recommended [11]