The competition between in aged spirits in India is increasingly hot and diverse. Not just Irish whiskey but US and Japanese too; not just imported either, because India’s own whisky industry is premiumising and tapping into a consumer base that doesn’t automatically equate domestic with cheap and imported with expensive. After all, in India, Indian single malts outsold their Scotch rivals in volume terms in 2024, according to leading domestic player Radico Khaitan.However, the news coming out of Ireland sh ...

Investment Ratings - Diageo: Sell [2] - Pernod: Buy [3] - Campari: Neutral [4] Core Insights - The US spirits market is experiencing a decline, with overall sales down -3.3% excluding RTDs, and a slight decline of -0.3% including RTDs, driven by a volume increase of +2.6% [6][27] - Diageo continues to lose market share, with volumes including RTDs declining -7.5% and sales down -3.7% [2][11] - Pernod's volumes declined -7.8%, but Jameson showed modest improvement, indicating some resilience in the brand [19] - Campari's performance is underwhelming, with volumes down -1.8% and sales falling -1.9%, despite some growth in Aperol [28] Summary by Company Diageo - The USA accounted for 36% of Diageo's FY24 sales and 46% of EBIT [2][17] - Key brands like Crown Royal and Don Julio showed mixed results, with Crown Royal volumes flat and Don Julio up +20% [11][16] - Vodka brands Smirnoff, Ketel One, and Ciroc all lost market share, with Ciroc declining -27.8% [11][12] Pernod - The USA accounted for 19% of Pernod's FY24 sales and 24% of EBIT [3][20] - Jameson volumes improved slightly by +0.2%, while Absolut and Malibu faced declines of -4.6% and -9.2% respectively [19][21] - Overall sales declined by -6.4%, indicating a challenging market environment [19][23] Campari - The USA accounted for 28% of Campari's FY24 sales [4][29] - Espolon volumes turned negative for the first time since June '23, while Aperol grew by +4.7% [28][31] - Sales fell -1.9%, with a broadly flat price/mix indicating pricing pressures [28][32]