Key Takeaways MRK faces major headwinds as Keytruda, its top seller, nears the loss of exclusivity in 2028. Gardasil sales dropped 40% in Q1 2025 due to weak China demand, despite strength in other regions. MRK expects IRA's Medicare drug pricing to impact Januvia in 2026 and Keytruda starting in 2028.Merck (MRK) is expected to face several hurdles over the next few years that could affect its long-term growth trajectory, starting with the anticipated loss of exclusivity of its blockbuster PD-L1 inhibitor ...

Key Takeaways PFE expects steady 2025 COVID sales but anticipates major LOE losses and IRA headwinds in the future. Medicare Part D changes may cut into sales of key PFE drugs like Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xtandi and Xeljanz. PFE trades at 7.82x forward earnings, below industry average, with EPS estimates rising for 2025 and 2026.Pfizer (PFE) is likely to encounter several headwinds in the next couple of years that can hurt its sales and profits, the first being declining sales of COVID products, Comirnaty and ...

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer's stock has significantly declined, presenting a potential buying opportunity despite underlying challenges [2][3][7] Company Challenges - Pfizer's stock decline is primarily due to rapidly decreasing sales of COVID-19 products, compounded by vaccine skepticism and reduced pandemic concerns [3] - The company faced setbacks with product withdrawals, including the sickle cell disease therapy Oxbryta and the oral obesity drug danuglipron due to safety concerns [4] - Patent expirations for key drugs, such as Inlyta, Xeljanz, and Eliquis, are imminent, which could impact revenue [5] - Potential regulatory challenges from the Trump administration, including tariffs and international reference pricing, add to the uncertainty [6][12] Market Sentiment - Despite the challenges, there is a level of optimism among analysts, with 8 out of 25 rating Pfizer as a buy or strong buy, and an average 12-month price target indicating a 28% upside potential [7] - Pfizer's reliance on COVID-19 product sales has decreased, with these products accounting for less than 7.7% of total revenue in Q1 2025 [8] Growth Prospects - Pfizer is exploring patent term extensions and has several promising products in its pipeline that could offset revenue losses from expiring patents [9] - The company is actively seeking business development opportunities, including licensing agreements and potential acquisitions to enhance its product offerings [11] Financial Metrics - Pfizer's shares are trading at over 8 times forward earnings, with a low price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.6, indicating attractive valuation relative to growth prospects [14] - The forward dividend yield stands at 7.47%, and despite a high payout ratio of 122.5%, Pfizer has sufficient free cash flow and anticipates $7.2 billion in cost savings by 2027 [15] Conclusion - Overall, Pfizer is positioned to navigate its challenges effectively, with a low stock price and high dividend yield suggesting solid total return potential [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer reported mixed first-quarter results for 2025, with adjusted earnings per share of 92 cents exceeding estimates but revenues of $13.72 billion falling short of expectations, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8% [1][2][15]. Revenue Performance - Total revenues were $13.72 billion, down 8% year-over-year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.89 billion, with operationally a decrease of 6% and a negative currency impact of 2% [2]. - International revenues increased by 4% operationally to $5.34 billion, while U.S. revenues declined by 12% to $8.37 billion [3]. Product Segment Analysis - Primary Care segment sales fell 20% operationally to $5.7 billion, with Eliquis sales declining 4% to $1.92 billion due to pricing pressures from the Inflation Reduction Act [4][5]. - Specialty Care sales rose 6% to $4.0 billion, driven by Vyndaqel family revenues increasing by 33% to $1.49 billion [4][10]. - Oncology sales increased by 7% to $3.76 billion, with Padcev sales rising 25% to $426 million, while Ibrance revenues declined by 6% to $977 million [4][12][13]. Key Product Performance - Paxlovid revenues dropped 75% year-over-year to $491 million, missing estimates [8]. - Comirnaty sales rose 62% year-over-year to $565 million, exceeding expectations [7]. - The RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, recorded sales of $131 million, down 6% year-over-year, missing estimates [9]. Cost Management - Adjusted selling, informational, and administrative expenses decreased by 12% to $3.01 billion, while adjusted R&D expenses also fell by 12% to $2.17 billion [3]. 2025 Guidance - Pfizer reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, projecting total revenues between $61.0 billion and $64.0 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected in the range of $2.80 to $3.00 [14][16]. Market Context - Pfizer's stock has declined 11.7% year-to-date, contrasting with a 1.5% increase in the industry [16]. - The company faces challenges from declining COVID-19 product sales and potential patent expirations impacting key products from 2026 to 2030 [17]. Strategic Outlook - Pfizer anticipates that non-COVID drug sales and new product contributions will drive revenue growth in 2025, alongside cost-cutting measures expected to yield savings of $7.7 billion by the end of 2027 [20].