Key Takeaways Pfizer's COVID sales fell sharply, while non-COVID revenues rose 6% operationally in 2025.PFE's new and acquired drugs generated $10.2B in 2025, up about 14% year over year.Pfizer faces a 2026-2030 LOE cliff as Eliquis and other key drugs near patent expiry.Sales of Pfizer’s (PFE) COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, declined from their peak with the end of the pandemic. Their sales came down to around $11 billion in 2024 and $6.7 billion in 2025 from $56.7 billion in 2022. In addition to l ...

Core Insights - Pfizer demonstrated robust operational resilience during its strategic transformation phase, with total revenue reaching $62.6 billion in 2025, reflecting a 6% growth in core business excluding COVID-related products [1][4] - The company maintained its 2026 performance guidance while revealing an active product pipeline, expecting to initiate approximately 20 key clinical trials in 2026, laying the foundation for long-term growth [1][4] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $17.6 billion, a 1% decrease from Q4 2024, while full-year revenue decreased by 2% to $62.6 billion [2] - Adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 was $0.66, a 5% increase year-over-year, and for the full year, it reached $3.22, up 4% [2][3] - The adjusted sales cost ratio improved to 24.2%, down from 25.8% in 2024, indicating enhanced cost management [8] Business Segments - Non-COVID product lines showed strong structural growth, with cardiovascular and vaccine segments leading the way; Eliquis generated $8 billion in revenue, a growth of 8% [4][5] - The oncology business achieved $16.8 billion in revenue, an 8% increase, with key products like Ibrance and Xtandi maintaining strong market positions despite competition [6] - COVID-related product revenues significantly declined, with Comirnaty and Paxlovid generating $4.4 billion and $2.4 billion respectively, down 18% and 59% year-over-year [7] Strategic Initiatives - Pfizer completed the acquisition of Metsera for approximately $7 billion, marking its entry into the obesity and metabolic disease treatment market [9] - The company is advancing its obesity pipeline, with promising results from the clinical trials of its long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist [10] - Multiple oncology products received regulatory breakthroughs, enhancing the competitive edge of Pfizer's oncology portfolio [11][12] 2026 Outlook - Pfizer projects 2026 revenue between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, including approximately $5 billion from COVID-related products [13] - The company plans to maintain a focus on reducing debt levels and balancing its capital structure, with no share buybacks planned for 2026 [13]

Core Insights - Pfizer reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 66 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 57 cents, with a year-over-year earnings increase of 5% [1] - Total revenues for the quarter were $17.6 billion, a decline of 1% year-over-year on a reported basis and 3% on an operational basis, primarily due to decreased revenues from COVID-19 products [2] Revenue Breakdown - International revenues decreased by 4% on an operational basis to $8.44 billion, while U.S. revenues fell by 1% to $9.1 billion [2] - The Primary Care segment saw a 13% operational decline in sales to $7.94 billion, while Specialty Care recorded a 6% increase to $4.77 billion, and Oncology sales rose by 8% to $4.44 billion [3] Product Performance - Eliquis sales in Primary Care rose by 8% to $2.02 billion, although alliance revenues fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.14 billion [4] - Global revenues from the Prevnar family increased by 8% to $1.71 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65 billion [5] - Comirnaty sales were $2.27 billion, down 35% year-over-year, but still beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.0 billion [6] - Paxlovid revenues dropped by 70% year-over-year to $218 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $289 million [7] Full-Year Results - For the full year 2025, Pfizer's sales declined by 2% to $62.6 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $61.94 billion [14] - Adjusted earnings for 2025 were $3.22 per share, a 4% increase year-over-year, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.13 [14] 2026 Guidance - Pfizer expects total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, reflecting a decline from 2025 due to lower COVID product revenues and an impending patent cliff [16] - COVID sales are projected to be around $5 billion in 2026, down from approximately $6.7 billion in 2025 [17] - Adjusted earnings per share for 2026 are expected to be in the range of $2.80-$3.00, a decrease from 2025's EPS of $3.22 [17] Research and Development - Pfizer plans to initiate 20 pivotal studies in 2026, including 10 for ultra-long-acting obesity candidates from the Metsera acquisition [26] - Positive top-line data from a phase IIb study on PF-08653944 showed significant weight reduction, positioning Pfizer competitively against other weight loss therapies [20][21]

On Tuesday, Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) shared topline data from a mid-stage study for a weight loss drug and reported fourth quarter earnings that beat consensus estimates.Weight Loss DataPfizer released data from the Phase 2b VESPER-3 study of monthly maintenance dosing of PF'3944 (MET-097i) in adults with obesity or overweight without type 2 diabetes.The U.S. drug giant added the ultra-long-acting, injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist via a massive $10 billion Metsera, Inc. deal.The ongoing 64-week study demonst ...

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is facing significant challenges that could impact its attractiveness as an investment, particularly in relation to its dividend yield and upcoming patent expirations [1] Group 1: GLP-1 Drug Development - Pfizer's stock has fallen over 50% from its 2021 highs, partly due to its lack of a GLP-1 drug, which is crucial for diabetes management and weight loss [2] - The company previously had an internal GLP-1 candidate that was dropped, leaving it behind competitors like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, which have successful GLP-1 drugs on the market [3] - Pfizer is attempting to catch up by acquiring a company with a promising GLP-1 pipeline and has agreed to distribute a GLP-1 pill for a Chinese company pending approval [3][4] Group 2: Patent Expirations - Pfizer is approaching key patent cliffs, with its oncology drug Ibrance expected to face generic competition in 2027, followed by cardiovascular drugs Eliquis and Vyndaqel in 2028 [5] - The timing of new drug development and patent expirations does not always align, but 2026 is critical as it is the last year before revenues from key drugs may start to decline [6] Group 3: Dividend Concerns - Pfizer's dividend payout ratio is around 100%, raising concerns about its ability to sustain dividends amidst setbacks in GLP-1 development and upcoming patent cliffs [7] - Although dividends are paid from cash flow rather than earnings, the high payout ratio, combined with recent acquisitions and the capital-intensive nature of the pharmaceutical sector, adds to the worry [8]

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is expected to report a decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, indicating challenges in its financial performance compared to the previous year [1]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings per share (EPS) are predicted to be $0.57, a decrease of 9.5% year-over-year [1]. - Revenues are forecasted at $16.93 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 4.7% [1]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - There has been a 2% downward revision in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their forecasts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and stock price performance [3]. Revenue Estimates by Segment - Revenues from Oncology (Ibrance) are expected to reach $1.03 billion, down 6.1% from the prior year [5]. - Specialty Care (Xeljanz) revenues are estimated at $335.30 million, a decrease of 3.9% year-over-year [5]. - Specialty Care (Inflectra) revenues are projected at $173.25 million, showing a significant increase of 36.4% year-over-year [6]. - Oncology (Xtandi) revenues are expected to be $622.10 million, reflecting a 10.1% increase from the previous year [6]. Regional Revenue Insights - U.S. revenues for Oncology (Ibrance) are estimated at $665.80 million, down 6.6% from the year-ago quarter [7]. - Total international revenues for Specialty Care (Xeljanz) are expected to be $112.62 million, indicating a 12% decline year-over-year [7]. - U.S. revenues for Specialty Care (Inflectra) are projected at $150.80 million, a substantial increase of 135.6% year-over-year [8]. - Pfizer CentreOne revenues in the U.S. are estimated at $92.82 million, reflecting a 13.2% increase from the prior year [9]. Overall Market Performance - Pfizer shares have returned +3.9% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.8% change [10]. - With a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), Pfizer is expected to underperform the overall market in the near future [10].

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is currently viewed as a high-yielding stock with a low valuation, but its stagnant performance raises concerns among investors about its investment potential [1]. Group 1: Value Trap Argument - Pfizer's stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 15, dropping to less than 9 based on future earnings expectations, indicating it is a cheap stock [4]. - Concerns about Pfizer's future growth are valid due to multiple patent cliffs on key drugs such as Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, and Xtandi, which may lead to a revenue decline [5]. - The company's projected revenue for this year is between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, suggesting a potential decrease compared to 2025, and it has become effectively a no-growth company [7]. Group 2: Bargain Buy Argument - Pfizer's shares trade at less than 9 times future earnings, which may present a buying opportunity despite concerns over patent cliffs [9]. - The decline in Pfizer's stock price is not merely a market trend but may represent a rare chance to acquire shares of a leading healthcare company at a valuation not seen in over a decade [10].

Core Insights - Pfizer is scheduled to release its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 3, with a focus on oncology sales, which account for over 28% of total revenues [1] Oncology Segment - Key cancer drugs contributing to oncology sales include Ibrance, Xtandi, Lorbrena, Braftovi/Mektovi, and Seagen-acquired antibody-drug conjugates like Padcev [1] Primary Care Segment - Alliance revenues and direct sales from Eliquis are expected to rise due to increased global demand, although this is partially offset by price and generic erosion in some non-U.S. markets [3] - Sales of the Prevnar vaccine family are anticipated to decline due to lower demand in the U.S., despite higher international sales [3][4] Specialty Care Segment - Sales of Vyndaqel are projected to remain strong due to continued demand growth, while sales of Xeljanz and Enbrel may decline [7][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vyndaqel sales is set at $1.66 billion [7] COVID-19 Products - Revenues from the COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty are likely to decline due to narrower recommendations in the U.S., affecting the eligible patient population [5] - Sales of Paxlovid are also expected to decrease due to lower COVID-19 infection rates [5] Newer Products - Sales of the RSV vaccine Abrysvo in the U.S. are expected to be impacted by limited vaccination recommendations, although international sales may rise [6] - Strong demand for Nurtec ODT/Vydura in the U.S. is anticipated, aided by recent international launches, despite some offset from the IRA Medical Part D redesign and the 340B program [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Pfizer's stock has declined by 2.5% over the past year, contrasting with a 24.1% rise in the industry [8] - The company is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 8.58, which is lower than the industry average of 17.73 and its five-year mean of 10.31 [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings has decreased from $3.14 to $3.00 per share over the past 60 days [11]

Core Insights - Pfizer is a leading player in the oncology sector with a strong portfolio of approved cancer medicines and a promising pipeline focusing on various modalities [1] - The acquisition of Seagen in 2023 enhanced Pfizer's oncology position by adding four antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), contributing significantly to revenues in the first nine months of 2025 [2] - Oncology sales account for approximately 28% of Pfizer's total revenues, with a 7% growth in this segment during the first nine months of 2025 [2][11] Oncology Sales Performance - Key drugs such as Xtandi, Lorbrena, and the Braftovi-Mektovi combination are expected to drive Pfizer's oncology sales in Q4, compensating for the decline in Ibrance sales [3][11] - Ibrance sales are anticipated to have decreased due to competitive pressures, generic entries in certain markets, and the redesign of Medicare Part D in the U.S., which also negatively impacted other oncology drugs like Xtandi and Lorbrena [4][11] - Sales of Adcetris may have been affected by competitive pressures, while Padcev is likely benefiting from strong demand trends in first-line metastatic urothelial cancer [5] Pipeline and Future Prospects - Pfizer is expected to provide updates on late-stage oncology candidates such as atirmociclib, vepdegestrant, and sigvotatug vedotin during the Q4 conference call [6] - Sasanlimab, aimed at treating high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer, is currently under review in the U.S. and EU [6] Competitive Landscape - Pfizer competes with major players in the oncology market, including AstraZeneca, Merck, Johnson & Johnson, and Bristol-Myers [7] - AstraZeneca's oncology sales represent about 43% of its total revenues, with a 16% increase in the first nine months of 2025 [8] - Merck's Keytruda, a significant contributor to its sales, recorded $23.3 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2025, marking an 8% year-over-year increase [9] - Bristol-Myers' Opdivo accounted for around 20% of its total revenues, with sales rising 8% to $7.54 billion in the same period [10] - Johnson & Johnson's oncology sales grew 20.6% to $18.52 billion, driven by both older and newer cancer treatments [12] Financial Performance and Valuation - Pfizer's stock has decreased by 4.4% over the past year, contrasting with a 21.8% increase in the industry [13] - The company's shares are trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 8.40, lower than the industry average of 17.56 and its own 5-year mean of 10.32, indicating an attractive valuation [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pfizer's 2026 earnings has declined from $3.14 to $3.02 per share over the past 60 days [18]

Pfizer FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) - **Date of Conference**: January 12, 2026 Key Financial Performance - **2025 Performance**: Achieved good financial results with three consecutive earnings beats in both revenue and profitability [4] - **Cost Reduction**: Successfully reduced operational expenses by $5.6 billion between 2024 and 2025 [4] - **COVID Revenue Decline**: COVID-related revenues decreased from approximately $11 billion in 2024 to an expected $6.5 billion in 2025, indicating a significant decline in relevance for the business [5] Strategic Focus for 2026 - **Key Transactions**: Focus on maximizing value from three major acquisitions: Seagen, Biohaven (Nurtec), and Metsera, which account for 80% of investments [6][7] - **R&D Milestones**: Emphasis on delivering critical R&D milestones with a rich pipeline of catalysts expected in 2026 [7] - **Post-2028 Growth**: Preparing for a loss of exclusivity (LOE) period from 2026 to 2028, aiming for industry-leading growth post-2028 [7] - **AI Integration**: Plans to scale AI across the organization to enhance efficiency and cost management [8] Anticipated Catalysts - **Regulatory Approvals**: Expecting two approvals for Padcev, which will significantly increase the addressable patient population from 19,000 to an additional 22,000 [9] - **Data Readouts**: Key upcoming data readouts include Elrexfio for multiple myeloma, Litfullo for vitiligo, and Lyme disease vaccine trials [10][12] - **Metsera Portfolio**: Anticipating significant data releases from Metsera, particularly regarding its monthly dosing program and ultra-long-acting GLP-1 [12][13] Market Insights - **Obesity Market Growth**: The obesity market is projected to grow to $150 billion by 2030, with Pfizer positioning itself competitively through the Metsera acquisition [25][26] - **Differentiated Products**: Emphasis on developing a differentiated portfolio with long-acting formulations and strong marketing capabilities to capture market share [27][28] Financial Guidance - **2026 Revenue Projections**: Guidance for approximately $61 billion in revenue for 2026, including a $1.5 billion reduction from COVID revenues [18] - **Long-term Growth**: Expecting double-digit growth from new product introductions to offset LOEs, with a modest decline projected in 2027 and 2028 [21] Competitive Landscape - **Market Positioning**: Pfizer's competitive strategy includes leveraging its commercial capabilities and differentiated product offerings to compete against major players like Lilly and Novo [28] - **Oncology Pipeline**: Significant focus on oncology assets, including SV for lung cancer and CDK4 for breast cancer, with promising phase 2 data [31][35] Policy and Regulatory Environment - **MFN Policy Impact**: The recent deal regarding the Most Favored Nation (MFN) policy is expected to positively impact international sales and pricing strategies [40][41] - **Investment in Innovation**: Commitment to increasing R&D investments and maintaining dividends while exploring business development opportunities [44] Conclusion - Pfizer is strategically positioned to navigate the upcoming LOE period while focusing on innovation and market expansion, particularly in the obesity and oncology sectors. The company aims to leverage its acquisitions and R&D capabilities to drive future growth and maintain a competitive edge in the pharmaceutical industry.