Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. is a significant player in the beverage industry, focusing on beer, wine, and spirits, with a diverse portfolio of well-known brands and a presence in multiple countries [1] Stock Performance - The average target price for Constellation Brands has increased slightly from $156.57 to $158, indicating a modest positive sentiment among analysts in the short term [2] - The current target price is lower than last year's $188.11, reflecting a more cautious outlook over the past year [2] Future Outlook - Despite challenges anticipated in 2025, Constellation Brands is focusing on cost-cutting and expects a resurgence in beer demand among Hispanic consumers [3] - Analyst Lauren Lieberman from Barclays has set a price target of $281, indicating optimism about the company's future performance [3] Earnings Report - The upcoming third-quarter earnings report is expected to show strong performance with a double-beat in revenue and earnings per share, which could positively influence analyst target prices and investor sentiment [4] Strategic Initiatives - Market trends and strategic initiatives, such as new product launches or partnerships, are crucial factors that could impact Constellation Brands' stock outlook as the company navigates its challenges [5]

Key Takeaways STZ is expected to post 3Q26 EPS of $2.66 and revenues of $2.2B, suggesting double-digit y/y declines.STZ faces pressure from weak wine and spirits shipments tied to divestitures and distributor contract changes.STZ invests in Mexico beer capacity and premium brands to drive long-term growth despite near-term costs.Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is scheduled to release third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Jan. 7, 2026. The alcoholic beverage bigwig is expected to have recorded declines in it ...

Key Points Constellation Brands and PepsiCo both underperformed the S&P 500. Constellation’s beer business faces an existential crisis. PepsiCo is being pressured to cut costs and implement significant changes. 10 stocks we like better than Constellation Brands › Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) and PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) were both considered stable blue chip stocks for conservative investors. Constellation was one of the world's largest producers of beers, wines, and spirits. PepsiCo was one of th ...

Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) ranks among the best sin stocks to buy in 2026. On November 21, Piper Sandler cut its price target for Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) to $135 from $155 while keeping a Neutral rating for the alcohol company. The firm cited increasing strain from GLP-1 weight loss pharmaceuticals as a major reason for the downgrading, stating that recent price cuts for these prescriptions have likely encouraged consumer uptake. According to Piper Sandler, this tendency might prod ...

Core Insights - Constellation Brands has seen a significant decline in stock value, dropping over 40% in the past three years while the S&P 500 increased by over 70% [1] - The company faces long-term challenges including stalled growth, rising tariffs, and substantial losses [1] Revenue Breakdown - In fiscal 2025, Constellation generated 84% of its revenue from beer, 14% from wine, and 4% from spirits [3] - Beer revenue growth has decreased from 11% in FY 2023 to 5% in FY 2025, while wine and spirits segments have seen negative growth [4] Challenges Faced - The beer business has been impacted by changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics, and economic pressures on Hispanic consumers [4][5] - Rising tariffs on aluminum cans and supply chain issues in Mexico have forced price increases, further slowing growth [5] - The wine and spirits segments have struggled as consumers shifted away from cheaper brands, leading to a focus on higher-end products but resulting in reduced revenues [6] Future Projections - In the first half of fiscal 2026, revenue fell 10% year over year, with expectations of further declines in beer, wine, and spirits sales [8] - Analysts predict total revenue will drop 11% in fiscal 2026 but may stabilize in fiscal 2027 and grow by 3% in fiscal 2028 [9] Profitability Outlook - Constellation turned unprofitable in fiscal 2022 and 2023 due to poor investments but is expected to return to profitability in fiscal 2026 [10][11] - Analysts forecast GAAP earnings per share (EPS) growth of 18% in fiscal 2027 and 4% in fiscal 2028, despite a projected decline in non-GAAP EPS in fiscal 2026 [11] Stock Valuation - The stock trades at 12 times forward adjusted earnings estimates with a forward dividend yield of 2.9%, indicating limited downside potential [13] - However, upside potential may be constrained until the company demonstrates a sustainable business model [13]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands has faced significant challenges, with its stock down over 50% since early 2024, primarily due to reduced alcohol consumption linked to health and cost concerns, but the company is positioned for a potential turnaround [1][2]. Company Overview - Constellation Brands is a $23 billion company known for its popular beer brands, including Modelo and Corona, which generate the majority of its revenue. It also has a portfolio of wine and spirits brands [3][4]. - The company reported $10.2 billion in revenue for the last fiscal year, showing a slight increase from the previous year, but sales have declined by 10% in the six months ending in August due to a challenging socioeconomic environment [4][5]. Market Trends - A record-low 54% of American adults are now regular drinkers, with health concerns cited as the primary reason for reduced consumption [5]. - The Beer Institute reported a 5% decline in shipment volume through September, reflecting broader industry trends [4]. Strategic Changes - Constellation Brands is focusing on higher-growth segments by shedding lower-priced wine brands, which aligns with its strategy to enhance its premium beer portfolio [8]. - The company plans to reduce $200 million in unnecessary annual spending by the end of fiscal 2028, aiming to improve operational efficiency [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to experience a cyclical rebound in the beer business as economic conditions improve, which could lead to a recovery in consumer demand [10]. - Analysts are becoming more bullish on Constellation Brands, with a consensus price target of $169, representing a potential upside of 28% from the current stock price [14]. Investment Considerations - The forward-looking dividend yield is over 3%, providing an attractive entry point for investors [11]. - The forward price-to-earnings ratio is less than 20, suggesting that most risks have been mitigated, making it a relatively safer investment in the alcohol sector [12][13].

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) is recognized as one of Warren Buffett's top stock picks with significant upside potential, maintaining a Buy rating from Evercore ISI with a price target of $170 [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q2 FY2026, Constellation Brands reported adjusted earnings of $3.63 per share, exceeding consensus estimates by $0.22. However, revenue was approximately $2.48 billion, slightly below expectations [2] - The company faced volume challenges in its beer segments but managed to navigate these issues despite macroeconomic pressures [2] Brand Loyalty and Market Position - The company demonstrated increased brand loyalty, particularly for its Corona and Modelo brands, with Corona Familiar showing exceptional performance [3] - CEO Bill Newlands indicated that Corona Familiar may be a larger brand than previously estimated, highlighting its status as one of the top share gainers in its category [3] Analyst Outlook - As of October 21, the average price target for Constellation Brands is $169, suggesting an upside of nearly 19.65% from current levels [4] - The company operates in multiple segments, including Beer, Wine and Spirits, and Corporate Operations, with well-known brands such as Corona, Modelo, Robert Mondavi Winery, and Kim Crawford [4]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. is facing challenges in the alcohol market, particularly due to the impact of GLP-1 drugs that reduce cravings for alcohol, affecting sales of its major brands like Corona and Modelo [1][2] - The company's stock has seen a decline, with a current valuation at 12 times earnings, which is noted as the lowest seen, although this multiple contraction is considered justified given recent performance [1] Company Overview - Constellation Brands produces and markets a variety of alcoholic beverages, including beer, wine, and spirits, under well-known brands such as Corona, Modelo, Robert Mondavi, Kim Crawford, and SVEDKA [2] - The company has been described as a "fallen idol" in the consumer packaged goods sector, reflecting broader issues within the alcohol industry [2] Market Context - The alcohol industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with Constellation Brands exemplifying the struggles faced by companies in this sector [2] - The introduction and popularity of GLP-1 drugs are significantly impacting consumer behavior, particularly in relation to alcohol consumption [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a decrease in top-line guidance while maintaining capital expenditure (CAPEX) guidance, indicating confidence in long-term growth despite near-term headwinds [12][14] - The beer operating margin target remains at 39% to 40%, which is considered best in class, even with some expected deleveraging [65][66] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The beer segment experienced a decline in sales volume, particularly among Hispanic consumers, attributed to macroeconomic factors and socio-economic concerns [9][10] - The wine and spirits segment showed positive growth, with brands like Kim Crawford and Meiomi contributing to a 2% increase in Q2, maintaining a strong market position [36][70] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted significant volatility in sales, particularly in high Hispanic zip code areas, which have underperformed compared to the general market [76] - California has been identified as a major challenge, with expectations for construction opportunities to potentially improve beer sales in the region [77] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining marketing investments to drive long-term growth, despite current economic challenges [25][26] - There is an emphasis on price pack architecture to cater to consumers with varying financial capabilities, ensuring accessibility to products across different price points [44][60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about hitting the bottom of the current sales decline, while acknowledging unprecedented volatility in the market [76] - The company remains committed to investing in brand loyalty and marketing, particularly targeting younger consumers like Gen Z [10][25] Other Important Information - The company has achieved $105 million in cost savings year-to-date, with ongoing efforts to optimize operations and logistics [48] - Tariff impacts are expected to be around $70 million for the beer business and $20 million for the wine business, tracking with volume changes [53] Q&A Session Summary Question: Volume growth and consumer sentiment - Management highlighted that 80% of consumers are concerned about the socio-economic environment, impacting engagement and volume growth [9][10] Question: CAPEX guidance rationale - The company plans to maintain CAPEX to support long-term growth, despite short-term challenges [12][14] Question: Brand loyalty for Corona and Modelo - Management noted increased loyalty for Corona and Modelo, with specific brands within the portfolio performing well [18][19] Question: Impact of macro factors on beer category - Management believes macro factors are more significant than structural issues, although cannabis and health trends are acknowledged as potential influences [23][24] Question: Beer margin and cost savings - The company reported $65 million in cost savings for Q2, with ongoing initiatives to enhance operational efficiency [47][48] Question: Pricing strategy in light of economic challenges - The company expects to maintain a 1-2% pricing increase, adjusting strategies based on market conditions [72][73] Question: Inventory levels and destocking - Inventory levels are reported to be in a good position, with no significant destocking issues anticipated [70][71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a decrease in top-line guidance last month but maintained its CAPEX guidance, indicating a commitment to long-term growth despite near-term headwinds [10][12] - The beer operating margin target remains at 39% to 40%, which is considered best in class, even with some deleveraging expected [58][60] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The beer segment experienced a drop in sales volume, particularly among Hispanic consumers, attributed to macroeconomic factors and socio-economic concerns [6][9] - The wine and spirits segment showed a 2% increase in Q2, driven by brands like Kim Crawford and Meiomi, indicating a strong performance in the market [32][64] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer sentiment remains low, with 80% of surveyed consumers expressing concerns about the socio-economic environment, impacting overall sales volume [7][9] - The company noted significant differences in performance across various markets, with high Hispanic zip code areas showing worse results compared to the general market [69] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining marketing investments to drive long-term growth, despite current economic challenges [22][23] - There is an emphasis on price pack architecture to cater to consumers with varying financial capabilities, ensuring accessibility to products [39][55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes that the current challenges are primarily cyclical and expects a return to traditional growth profiles as socio-economic conditions improve [23][60] - The company is cautiously optimistic about hitting the bottom of the current market volatility, with a focus on monitoring trends closely [70] Other Important Information - The company has achieved $105 million in cost savings year-to-date, with ongoing efforts to optimize operations and logistics [43] - Tariff impacts are expected to be around $70 million for the beer business and $20 million for the wine business this year [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Volume growth and consumer sentiment - Management acknowledged the impact of socio-economic concerns on consumer behavior, particularly among Hispanic consumers, and noted increased loyalty for brands like Corona and Modelo [6][7] Question: CAPEX guidance rationale - The company explained that CAPEX for FY2026 remains unchanged due to long-term commitments, while future CAPEX adjustments will be considered based on market conditions [10][12] Question: Beer margin and cost savings - Management highlighted $65 million in cost savings for Q2 and discussed ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency [42][43] Question: Brand loyalty and performance - The company provided insights into brand health metrics, indicating that while Corona Extra faced challenges, the broader Corona family performed well, particularly with Corona Familiar [15][16] Question: Pricing strategy and market conditions - Management reiterated the expectation of a 1% to 2% pricing increase, emphasizing a market-by-market approach to pricing strategies [66][67] Question: Inventory levels and depletions - The company confirmed that inventory levels are in a good position and expressed confidence in aligning shipments and depletions moving forward [36][64]