越来越紧绷的绳子，突然的轻微松动，就打了所有人一个措手不及。 万亿美金礼来——2024年，这是所有医药人翘首以盼的时刻。 过去几年，在减肥药等重磅药物的预期推动下，市场对礼来的热情持续高涨，其股价也随之坐上火箭：2020年末，礼来收盘价仅160美 元/股；到2022年末，股价已飙升至358美元/股，市值突破3000亿美元。 在医药领域，这样的涨幅算不上罕见，但大多集中在biotech身上。因此，对于一家市值超千亿美元的巨头来说，这样的表现已堪称现象 级。 然而，礼来接下来的走势证明，市场还是低估了它的爆发力。 2023年末，礼来股价攀升至576美元/股；2024年8月，股价一度冲至967美元/股，市值突破9100亿美元——这时它距离万亿美元最近的时 刻，仿佛只差临门一脚。 彼时，万亿礼来的呼声也达到了顶峰。没人料到，这竟成了盛极而衰的转折点。截至目前，礼来最新市值为6065亿美元。也就是说，短 短一年间，其市值蒸发3000多亿美元。 曾不断刷新全球药企市值纪录的礼来，不经意间，又在医药史上留下了最昂贵的教训。但问题是，礼来似乎并没有做错什么…… 为减肥药而狂 礼来的狂飙，由诸多重磅进展推动。 例如，2023年 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Biopharma in North America - **Market Analysis**: The latest weekly Total Prescription (TRx) year-over-year (YoY) growth for the week ending July 25, 2025, was +1.7%, a decrease from +3.0% the previous week and +2.6% over the past 12 weeks [1][2][6] Core Company Insights Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - **Cobenfy Launch**: Approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024. Weekly scripts were approximately 1,950, down from 2,060 the previous week. To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at 2-3 times the volumes of recent schizophrenia launches, requiring about 129K TRx at an estimated net price of $1,200 [3][14][16] Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) - **Journavx Launch**: Approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025. Weekly scripts were around 6,430, up from 6,240 the previous week. Hospital scripts, which are not captured by IQVIA, account for approximately 28% of total scripts. To achieve estimated sales of $65 million, about 289K total scripts are needed [4][19] Gilead Sciences (GILD) - **Yeztugo Launch**: Approved on June 18, 2025, with weekly TRx of approximately 300, an increase from 240 the previous week. The injectable formulation accounted for 45% of total TRx, while the oral formulation made up 55% [5][22] Eli Lilly (LLY) - **Mounjaro and Zepbound**: The launch of Mounjaro is showing strong growth, with a 69% increase in TRx YoY. Zepbound has seen a remarkable 268% increase in TRx YoY [9][26] Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: The extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +0.9%, indicating a more positive trend compared to TRx YoY growth. This suggests that physicians are increasingly writing longer-duration prescriptions [2][35] - **Key Product Performance**: The performance of major pharmaceutical products shows significant variations, with some experiencing substantial declines (e.g., Humira -41% YoY) while others like Sotyktu and Mounjaro are seeing strong growth [26][48] Important Metrics - **TRx Growth**: The overall TRx growth for the biopharma sector is showing signs of slowing down, with the latest figures indicating a need for companies to adapt their strategies to maintain growth [1][31] - **Sales Estimates**: Consensus estimates for various drugs have been adjusted, reflecting the dynamic nature of the market and the competitive landscape [3][4][5] Conclusion The biopharma industry in North America is currently experiencing mixed performance across different companies and products. While some new launches are showing promising growth, overall market trends indicate a slowdown in prescription growth, necessitating strategic adjustments by companies to meet evolving market demands.

Summary of Earnings Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Pharmaceuticals and Biotech Sectors - **Companies Discussed**: AbbVie, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Bio-Rad Laboratories, Neurocrine Biosciences, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Chugai Pharmaceutical, PeptiDream, Nxera Pharma Key Points by Company AbbVie - **Sales Performance**: Humira sales decreased by 58.1% year-over-year due to biosimilar competition, but this was offset by strong sales of Skyrizi, which increased by 62.2% to $4.4 billion, driven by market share growth in psoriasis and inflammatory bowel disease [1] - **Product Strategy**: Many patients switched from Humira to Skyrizi and Rinvoq instead of biosimilars. AbbVie plans to increase production capacity for Skyrizi in the long term [1] - **New Developments**: The obesity treatment ABBV-295 may address muscle and bone loss when used with other AbbVie drugs [1] Biogen - **Market Share**: Leqembi, an Alzheimer's treatment, maintains a 70% market share despite competition from Eli Lilly's Kisunla [3] - **Testing Growth**: Monthly PET testing for Alzheimer's has increased fivefold, and blood-based biomarker testing has tripled in the past year [3] - **Future Expectations**: Biogen anticipates interim data readout for the AHEAD 3-45 study in 2028 [3] Bristol Myers Squibb - **Sales Growth**: Sales of Opdivo's subcutaneous formulation increased by 7% year-over-year to $30 million, while the intravenous formulation rose to $2.56 billion [6] - **New Product Launch**: Cobenfy, a schizophrenia treatment, generated $35 million in sales with over 2,000 weekly prescriptions [6] - **Direct-to-Patient Model**: The company plans to sell Eliquis directly to patients at a discount of over 50% below the list price [6] Bio-Rad Laboratories - **Sales Performance**: Reported sales of $652 million, up 2% year-over-year, but operating profits fell by 24% to $77 million due to weak demand in biotech and academic research markets [8] - **Market Challenges**: The demand for instruments has been particularly weak, impacting overall sales [8] Neurocrine Biosciences - **Sales Growth**: Total sales reached $688 million, up 16% year-over-year, with operating profits flat at $146 million [10] - **Future Studies**: Plans to initiate a Phase 2 study of NBI-570 in H2 2025, with Phase 1 data readouts expected for NBI-567 and NBI-569 [10] - **Market Positioning**: Neurocrine is exploring differentiation opportunities in muscarinic receptor agonists, which may be better suited for elderly patients [10] Implications for Japanese Companies - **Takeda Pharmaceutical**: Entyvio retains a top share among first-line therapies for ulcerative colitis but is losing market share in second-line settings due to competition [2] - **Chugai Pharmaceutical and PeptiDream**: Both companies are developing myostatin inhibitors to counteract muscle mass loss associated with long-term GLP-1 receptor agonist use [2] - **Nxera Pharma**: The company is positioned positively due to its licensing of muscarinic receptor agonists to Neurocrine, although earnings contributions may not be reflected in share prices until Phase 3 study results are available [11] Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: The aggressive advertising by competitors is impacting market shares of established products like Entyvio [2] - **Direct Sales Models**: There is a growing trend among overseas pharmaceutical companies to adopt direct-to-patient sales models, which Japanese companies have yet to fully embrace [7] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data from the earnings calls of the discussed companies, highlighting their performance, strategies, and implications for the broader industry.

Core Viewpoint - The development of Alzheimer's drugs is facing significant bottlenecks, with Biogen and Eli Lilly maintaining a leading position in the market. However, due to research setbacks, safety risks, and slow adoption, the market size forecast for 2030 has been drastically reduced to $6 billion from a previous expectation of $13 billion [3][4]. Group 1: Market Forecast and Sales Predictions - The combined sales of Biogen's Leqembi and Eli Lilly's Kisunla are projected to reach $5.91 billion by 2025, with potential growth to $40 billion by 2030, which is 24% lower than the market's general expectation of $50 billion due to slow drug adoption [4]. - By 2030, the total sales of Alzheimer's drugs are expected to reach $6 billion, with nearly $1 billion coming from new mechanism drugs [5]. Group 2: Impact of Research Failures - A series of late-stage clinical trial failures have led to a 54% reduction in sales forecasts for Alzheimer's drugs since June 2024, with risk-adjusted sales expectations shrinking by over $7 billion for 2025-2030, including a $3 billion reduction for 2030 alone [8][11]. - The decline in sales expectations is attributed to the exit of several late-stage candidates from the market due to research failures or lowered priorities [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The long-term administration of Leqembi shows limited cognitive improvement, particularly in patients with low or no tau pathology, which affects about 40% of the trial population. This has led to skepticism among physicians and patients regarding the drug's efficacy [11]. - New candidates, such as Novo Nordisk's semaglutide and Roche's trontinemab, are expected to increase competitive pressure, potentially limiting the market share of first-generation amyloid-beta antibodies [11][15]. Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Biogen's Leqembi faces increasing risks due to limited application, with sales forecasts for 2030 being 20% lower than market expectations, driven by safety concerns and access barriers [13]. - Eli Lilly is expected to surpass Biogen in sales by 2029, driven by the approval of Kisunla and subsequent antibody drugs, indicating a shift in market leadership [15].

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's drug Kisunla has received support from EU regulators, paving the way for it to become the second drug in Europe to delay the most common cause of dementia [1][2] Group 1: Drug Approval and Market Impact - The European Medicines Agency (EMA) recommended Kisunla for patients with specific gene mutations that may increase the risk of amyloid-related imaging abnormalities (ARIA) [1] - Kisunla's approval in the EU is expected to enhance competition with Eisai and Biogen's Leqembi, which is also limited to patients with a lower risk of ARIA [2] - Bloomberg Intelligence has halved the market size forecast for Alzheimer's drugs by 2030 to $6 billion, with Kisunla projected to generate approximately $2 billion in sales [2] Group 2: Drug Administration and Side Effects - Kisunla is administered once a month, which may offer a convenience advantage over Leqembi, which requires bi-weekly infusions [3] - Both Kisunla and Leqembi are associated with side effects, including potential brain swelling and bleeding risks [2]

Regulatory Approval - Lilly's Alzheimer's disease drug Kisunla receives backing from EU regulators for use in a specific patient group [1]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company has received a positive opinion from the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use recommending donanemab for the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, with a regulatory decision from the European Commission expected soon [1][2]. Company Summary - Eli Lilly emphasizes the significance of this positive opinion as a milestone in making donanemab available to eligible patients in Europe, highlighting its potential to significantly impact those living with early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease [2]. - The company is committed to advancing scientific research through ongoing clinical trials and programs related to donanemab [2]. - Donanemab is currently marketed as Kisunla in various countries, including the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom, and is approved for patients regardless of ApoE4 status in many regions [4]. Industry Summary - Alzheimer's disease currently affects approximately 6.9 million people in Europe, with projections indicating this number could nearly double by 2050 due to aging populations [2]. - Clinical trial data from the TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 and TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 6 studies support the efficacy of donanemab in slowing cognitive decline and reducing the risk of disease progression [2]. - The TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 6 trial demonstrated that a modified dosing schedule for donanemab significantly reduced the incidence of amyloid-related imaging abnormalities (ARIA-E) while maintaining similar levels of amyloid plaque removal [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Biopharma in North America - **Market Analysis**: Comprehensive analysis of the US drug market conducted by IQVIA Rx Key Market Metrics - **Total Prescription Year-over-Year (YoY) Growth**: - Latest weekly growth (week ending July 11, 2025) was +4.0%, up from +3.4% the previous week and +2.5% over the past 12 weeks [1][6] - For the week ended July 11, the total market weekly TRx YoY change was +4.0%, compared to +1.8% a year ago [2] Prescription Trends - **Rolling 4-week TRx YoY**: +3.0% - **Rolling 12-week TRx YoY**: +2.5% - **Extended Unit (EUTRx) Weekly YoY Growth**: +3.3%, which is below the TRx YoY [2] - **Sequential Weekly TRx Growth**: +12.0%, a significant increase compared to -7.3% the week before [2] Company-Specific Insights - **Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)**: - Cobenfy approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024, with scripts at ~2,040 for the week, up from ~1,820 the previous week [3] - To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at ~2-3x the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches [3] - **Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)**: - Journavx approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025, with scripts at ~5,880 for the week, up from ~5,180 the previous week [4] - Hospital scripts, which are not captured by IQVIA, account for ~28% of total scripts [4] - **Gilead Sciences (GILD)**: - Yeztugo approved on June 18, 2025, with latest week TRx at ~70, up from ~20 the previous week [5] - Yeztugo's injectable formulation accounted for 54% of total TRx [5] Competitive Landscape - **Launch Comparisons**: - GILD's Yeztugo compared to Descovy and Apretude [5] - BMY's Sotyktu launch tracked against AMGN's Otezla [9] - LLY's Kisunla launched in July 2024 for Alzheimer's [9] Pricing and Sales Analysis - **Immunology Pricing**: Updated charts for 2Q25 for Stelara and Tremfya, analyzing how additional indications impact price per script [10] - **Biosimilar Adoption**: Comprehensive analysis of biosimilars across various branded drugs [12] Notable Trends - **Seasonal Respiratory Vaccine Tracking**: Exhibits tracking RSV and COVID vaccine weekly and monthly TRx launch trends [11] - **Key Products Performance**: Detailed tracking of TRx market share and performance for major pharmaceutical companies [48] Conclusion - The biopharma industry in North America is experiencing positive growth in total prescriptions, with significant contributions from new product launches and competitive dynamics among major players. The analysis indicates a robust market environment with potential investment opportunities in emerging therapies and established products.

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company's stock has declined 15.7% over the past year due to a first-quarter earnings miss, guidance cut, and positive developments at rival Novo Nordisk, alongside broader economic challenges [1][10]. Group 1: Company Performance - Lilly's cardiometabolic division is its strongest segment, driven by the success of GLP-1 therapies Mounjaro and Zepbound, which together account for approximately 48% of total revenues [3][4]. - Despite slower-than-expected sales in the second half of 2024, Mounjaro and Zepbound saw a resurgence in the first quarter of 2025 due to new international market launches and improved supply [5][6]. - Lilly anticipates continued growth for Mounjaro and Zepbound through expanded international uptake and deeper market penetration in the U.S. [6][7]. Group 2: Product Pipeline and Future Growth - Lilly has secured approvals for several new therapies, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss, and Kisunla, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2025 [10][11]. - The company is also advancing its pipeline in obesity, diabetes, and cancer, with several key mid and late-stage data readouts expected this year [12]. - Lilly is diversifying beyond GLP-1 drugs by expanding into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas, including recent M&A deals to enhance its pipeline [13]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominating the space [14]. - Mounjaro and Zepbound face competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide products and emerging candidates from companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics [15][17]. - Other pharmaceutical companies are also entering the obesity market, which could challenge Lilly's and Novo Nordisk's market positions [18]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - Lilly expects 2025 revenues to be between $58 billion and $61 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of approximately 32% [30]. - The company's stock has increased by over 400% in the past five years, primarily due to successful drug launches and a strong pipeline [29]. - Despite a high valuation with a price/earnings ratio of 29.54 compared to the industry average of 15.04, Lilly's stock is trading below its five-year mean [23].

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Co. is expected to report adjusted earnings of $5.56 per share and sales of $14.4 billion for the second quarter [1] - The strong performance of the obesity drug Zepbound is driving higher expectations for the quarter [2] - Bank of America Securities has made minor adjustments to its earnings model, reflecting a slight increase in revenue and EPS forecasts due to anticipated stronger sales of Zepbound [3][4] Financial Projections - BofA expects total revenue to rise by 1% in 2025, with EPS growing by 1.9% in the same year, but a slight dip of 0.7% in 2026 [4] - Long-term forecasts for key products such as Mounjaro, Zepbound, orforglipron, and retatrutide remain largely unchanged [5] Analyst Ratings - BofA maintains a Buy rating on Eli Lilly with a price forecast of $1,000, citing the company's sustainable growth potential compared to peers [6] Earnings Call Focus Areas - The earnings call will address U.S. drug pricing changes and upcoming clinical trial results, including tirzepatide's SURPASS-CVOT and orforglipron's ATTAIN-1 [7] - Performance updates on major products like Mounjaro and Zepbound will be closely monitored, along with the launch progress of new drugs such as Kisunla and Ebglyss [8]