Biogen Inc. (NASDAQ:BIIB) stock traded higher after Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) released disappointing topline results from the 2-year primary analysis of Evoke and Evoke+ phase 3 trials in early-stage symptomatic Alzheimer's disease.BIIB is reaching significant price levels. Watch the momentum hereThe trials did not confirm the superiority of semaglutide versus placebo in the reduction of progression of Alzheimer's disease, as measured by the change in Clinical Dementia Rating – Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) score ...

诺和诺德周一表示，其备受关注的口服版本司美格鲁肽在阿尔茨海默病方面的最新试验未能减缓这一神经退行性疾病的进展，这一结 果对这家减重药物巨头构成打击，并导致股价下滑。公司此前将该研究称为"彩票式机会"，强调结果存在高度不确定性，同时试验旨 在评估该药物能否减少患者的认知衰退。 此次失利终结了诺和诺德希望借阿尔茨海默病开辟GLP-1药物新市场的可能性，尤其是在其肥胖和糖尿病核心业务竞争不断加剧的背 景下。诺和诺德股东Storebrand资产管理公司投资经理Erik Berg-Johnsen对路透表示，这一失败很可能"为公司在阿尔茨海默领域的探 索钉上最后一颗钉子"。他指出，试验在原计划持续三年的情况下提前在两年时停止，表明司美格鲁肽几乎未能提供任何减缓病情进展 的效果。 整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 这项试验备受关注，市场希望借此判断广泛用于糖尿病和体重管理的GLP-1药物是否可能对阿尔茨海默病产生影响。此次研究对象为 Rybelsus，这是一种仅获批用于2型糖尿病的口服药物，与诺和诺德的Ozempic和Wegovy含有相同活性成分。 公司此前将阿尔茨海默病项目称为"彩票式机会"，凸显其高潜力与高不确定性并 ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's stock has increased by 36% this year, achieving a market capitalization of $1 trillion, marking it as the first healthcare company to reach this milestone [2][3] - The stock's rise is attributed to strong growth expectations, particularly from its diabetes and weight loss drugs, and a deal to lower drug prices [3][14] - Analysts suggest it may not be too late for investors to consider Eli Lilly [3] Financial Performance - Eli Lilly's Q3 revenue grew by 54% to $17.6 billion, exceeding estimates by approximately $1.5 billion [14] - Adjusted earnings per share reached $7.02, surpassing consensus estimates by over $1 [14] - The company raised its revenue and EPS guidance for 2025 to $63.25 billion and about $22 per share, respectively [14] Market Position - Eli Lilly holds a dominant position in the diabetes and weight loss drug market, controlling about 57% of the U.S. market for incretins [6] - The market for diabetes and weight loss drugs is projected to reach $150 billion by the early 2030s [6] - Mounjaro and Zepbound, two of Lilly's key products, have seen significant sales growth, with Mounjaro's revenue increasing by 68% to $5.2 billion and Zepbound's sales rising by 172% to nearly $3.4 billion [7][15] Innovation and Future Growth - Eli Lilly's innovation pipeline includes potential new treatments, such as retatrutide for obesity, expected to report positive trial results in late 2025 [8] - The company has also received FDA approval for an Alzheimer's therapy named Kisunla, which could contribute to future revenue [8] - The success of Eli Lilly's products is attributed to their clinical effectiveness and faster scaling of manufacturing compared to competitors [10][12] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's Mounjaro has outperformed Novo Nordisk's Ozempic in treating both diabetes and weight loss, contributing to its market leadership [10][11] - The competitive advantage stems from Mounjaro's ability to target multiple gut hormones, unlike Novo Nordisk's treatments [10][11] Future Projections - Analysts predict a 30% chance that Eli Lilly's market capitalization could double by 2028 if its innovation pipeline is successful [4] - However, there is a 20% chance that the stock could lose 30% of its value due to price competition and regulatory challenges [4] - Wall Street consensus views the stock as slightly overvalued, with an average price target indicating a 2% overvaluation [18]

作者 | 武月 11月21日，礼来股价上涨1.59%，收于1059.70元/股，全球首家迈入"万亿美元俱乐部"的药企，也终于诞 生了。 一直以来，万亿美元市值是科技巨头的专属领地。2018年，苹果成为美股首家万亿美元的巨头，此后跟 进的8家企业中，6家均为科技公司，仅特斯拉与伯克希尔・哈撒韦两个 例外。 如今礼来的闯入，不仅再次改写了万亿市值俱乐部的行业构成，更彻底捅破了创新药行业的估值天花 板。 市场沸腾背后，是一场关于"价值逻辑"的重构。过去十年，创新药企的市值天花板被锚定在千亿美元， 国内在无数创新药企奋力攀爬，却始终难越雷池。 （来源：氨基观察） 转自：氨基观察 礼来的登顶证明，创新药的天花板，本质是想象力的天花板。当一款药物能撬动千亿美元市场、覆盖近 亿患者，传统估值模型便显得苍白。 并且，万亿美元并非终点。大多数达成这一里程碑的科技巨头，随后都实现了数万亿美元的市值。只不 过，专利周期的诅咒、技术迭代的焦虑、管线断层的风险……制药业的兴衰规律并未改变。 礼来用十年务实主义攀上巅峰，但这才是真正的试炼开端。 减肥药，推开万亿美元大门 礼来的万亿美元之路，始于一款GLP-1双靶点药物替尔泊肽。2023 ...

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 诺和诺德预计将在下月初发布的研究结果可能为GLP-1药物——目前被数百万患者用于治疗糖尿病和减重——是否能减缓阿尔茨海默 病的进展提供最强的指示。 这两项试验，诺和诺德称其为"彩票"，正在测试其糖尿病药物Rybelsus ，该药物与Ozempic和Wegovy含 有相同的活性成分——司美格鲁肽——在数千名轻度阿尔茨海默病患者中，目标是将患者的认知衰退速度至少降低20%。 阿尔茨海默病专家表示，如果试验成功，这将为缓解这种定义为大脑中毒性淀粉样斑块的病症提供一种新的、方便的治疗方法，而全 球约有5000万人受此疾病影响。无论结果如何，研究人员预计将为未来研究提供重要线索，了解像司美格鲁肽这样的药物，以及礼来 的替尔泊肽和Mounjaro，如何在对抗阿尔茨海默病中发挥作用。 点击关注，追踪最新GLP-1资讯 阿尔茨海默病协会首席科学官Maria Carrillo表示，这项研究"有可能具有变革性。"然而，专家们一致认为，GLP-1类药物如何影响大 脑仍不清楚。进入试验的证据大多支持GLP-1类药物用于治疗与糖尿病和肥胖相关的痴呆症患者。2021年启动的阿尔茨海默病研究基 于动物研 ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company's stock reached $1000 per share for the first time on November 12, indicating strong market performance and nearing a $1 trillion market cap, primarily driven by the success of GLP-1 drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound [1][8] Drug Approvals and Revenue Contributions - Lilly has received approvals for several new drugs, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss, and Kisunla, which are contributing to revenue growth alongside GLP-1 drugs [2][5] - In the first nine months of 2025, Omvoh generated $176.9 million, while Ebglyss, Kisunla, and Jaypirca contributed $274.1 million, $140.6 million, and $358.2 million, respectively, totaling $950 million from these new drugs [3][10] Ongoing Studies and Future Potential - New drugs are being evaluated for additional indications, with Ebglyss in phase III trials for chronic rhinosinusitis and Jaypirca being studied for broader use in CLL and MCL [4][8] - Lilly anticipates launching new drugs in the fourth quarter of 2025 and throughout 2026, which will further enhance revenue [5][8] M&A Strategy - To diversify its portfolio beyond GLP-1 drugs, Lilly is pursuing M&A opportunities in cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience sectors, including the acquisition of Verve Therapeutics and Adverum Biotechnologies [6][7] Competitive Landscape - Omvoh faces competition from AbbVie’s and J&J’s products, while Kisunla competes with Eisai/Biogen's Leqembi, and Jaypirca competes with older BTK inhibitors [9][11] Stock Performance and Valuation - Lilly's stock has increased by 35.8% this year, outperforming the industry average of 14.4% [12] - The stock trades at a price/earnings ratio of 33.83, significantly higher than the industry average of 16.84, but below its 5-year mean of 34.54 [14] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share has risen from $22.94 to $23.78, and for 2026 from $30.79 to $32.06 over the past 30 days [16]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly is positioned as a strong long-term investment opportunity due to its successful GLP-1 drugs and several other growth avenues that could enhance its market value significantly in the future [1][12]. Growth Opportunities - **GLP-1 Drugs**: Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, are generating billions in revenue and are still in early growth stages, making them a key driver for the company's future [1][12]. - **Kisunla**: Approved for early Alzheimer's treatment, Kisunla has shown potential to slow cognitive decline. The development of early detection tests could expand its market significantly, with peak sales estimated at $5 billion annually [3][5]. - **Radiopharmaceuticals**: Eli Lilly is investing in radiopharmaceuticals, which target unhealthy cells using radiation. Collaborations, including a $60 million deal with Aktis Oncology and a $1.4 billion acquisition of Point Biopharma, indicate a strong commitment to this innovative cancer treatment approach [6][7][8]. - **AI-Powered Drug Discovery**: A partnership with Nvidia aims to enhance drug discovery efficiency through AI. Although significant benefits may take time to materialize, this initiative reflects the company's focus on innovation and growth [9][10]. Financial Metrics - **Current Stock Performance**: Eli Lilly's stock is currently priced at $923.30, with a market cap of $874 billion. The stock has seen a modest increase of 7% over the past year [11][12]. - **Profitability**: The company boasts a gross margin of 83.03%, indicating strong profitability potential [11].

Group 1 - The primary goal for long-term retail investors is to build wealth over an extended period to achieve financial goals such as secure retirement or buying a home [1] - Asset allocation is essential for diversification and long-term success, requiring investments across different asset classes like stocks, bonds, and cash [2] Group 2 - Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) develops and manufactures drugs across various therapeutic areas, including notable products like cancer drug Verzenio and diabetes drug Jardiance, with a strong pipeline in oncology, immunology, and neuroscience [4] - Eli Lilly is expanding the use of its GLP-1 drugs for new conditions and developing next-generation therapies, including orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 agonist expected to be submitted for regulatory approval by the end of 2025 [5][6] - The company is also working on retatrutide, an injectable triple-agonist, with promising phase 2 results for weight loss, and late-stage results expected before the end of 2025 [7]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.02, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.02 per share, and significantly up from $1.18 per share in the same quarter last year [1][9] - Revenues reached $17.60 billion, a 54% increase year over year, driven by strong sales of GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.01 billion [2][9] Revenue and Sales Performance - Mounjaro sales were $6.52 billion, up 109% year over year, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.48 billion [3] - Zepbound recorded sales of $3.59 billion, a 185% increase year over year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.45 billion [4] - Trulicity generated revenues of $1.05 billion, down 19% year over year, in line with estimates [6] - Jardiance sales rose 40% to $959 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $687 million [6] - Taltz brought in sales of $901.5 million, up 2% year over year, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate [7] - Verzenio generated sales of $1.47 billion, up 7% year over year, but also missed estimates [7] - Emgality revenues were $175.7 million, down 13% year over year, while Olumiant sales were $268.9 million, up 7% [8] Market Dynamics and Competition - Mounjaro and Zepbound are gaining market share from Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, despite facing strong competition [5] - The company is investing in obesity treatments and has several new molecules in clinical development, including orforglipron and retatrutide [14] Guidance and Future Outlook - Lilly raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $63.0 billion to $63.5 billion, up from a previous range of $60.0 billion to $62.0 billion, and increased EPS guidance to $23.00 to $23.70 [11][13] - The company is expanding its portfolio beyond GLP-1 drugs into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas, with recent acquisitions to enhance its pipeline [17][18] Stock Performance - Following the strong third-quarter results and guidance increase, Lilly's shares rose more than 5% in pre-market trading, with a year-to-date increase of 5.3% compared to the industry average of 3.3% [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, revenue grew by 54% compared to Q3 2024, driven by key products [6][9] - Gross margin as a percentage of revenue was 83.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-over-year [9] - Earnings per share increased to $7.02, compared to $1.18 in Q3 2024 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from key products accounted for $12 billion in the quarter, with significant contributions from immunology, oncology, and cardiometabolic health [11][12] - EBGLYSS prescriptions increased by 41% in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025 [11] - Mounjaro's total prescriptions grew by over 60% in the U.S. [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. revenue increased by 45%, with strong volume growth from Zepbound and Mounjaro, despite a 15% decline in price [10] - International revenue increased by over 100% in constant currency, reflecting strong uptake of Mounjaro [10] - Japan, China, and the rest of the world saw constant currency revenue growth of 24%, 22%, and 51%, respectively [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its manufacturing footprint and has announced plans for new facilities in the U.S. [7][8] - Lilly aims to leverage its robust pipeline and R&D investments to maintain a competitive edge in the market [51][53] - The company is pursuing an "all of the above" strategy to expedite the launch of orforglipron [39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the strong performance and market share gains in the incretin analogs market [6][9] - The company raised its revenue and earnings per share guidance for the year based on strong financial performance [6][15] - Management acknowledged the competitive landscape but emphasized confidence in their portfolio and execution strategy [51][53] Other Important Information - The company distributed $1.3 billion in dividends and executed approximately $700 million in share repurchases during the quarter [8] - Lilly achieved several key milestones, including FDA approvals and positive trial results for multiple products [7][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on orforglipron and its market launch - Management indicated a focus on getting orforglipron to patients quickly and is pursuing various strategies to expedite its launch [39] Question: Insights on Mounjaro's international ramp - Management noted strong performance in new markets and emphasized the importance of patient activation for obesity treatment [46] Question: Market dynamics and competitor behavior - Management expressed confidence in their competitive position and highlighted ongoing investments in R&D and execution [51][53] Question: Pricing and volume dynamics for orforglipron - Management discussed the importance of understanding price elasticity and the potential for significant market expansion with orforglipron [85]