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大摩前瞻英伟达财报:H20影响被忽视,但爆炸性的推理需求增长才是关键
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-28 03:26
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley highlights that despite short-term financial pressure from the "H20 sales restrictions," the market may be underestimating the long-term potential of explosive AI inference demand, which, combined with improvements in Blackwell architecture supply, could lead to a performance acceleration for NVIDIA in the second half of the year [1][6]. Group 1: Short-term Impact of H20 Policy - The change in the U.S. H20 export policy has significantly impacted NVIDIA's revenue, with estimates suggesting a 10% quarter-over-quarter revenue decline risk for the second quarter of 2025 [2][3]. - This policy shift has forced NVIDIA to announce a record $5.5 billion inventory write-down, marking the largest in semiconductor industry history [2][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Improvements - Despite the short-term impact of the H20 sales restrictions, improvements in the Blackwell supply chain and explosive inference demand are more noteworthy [5]. - The supply chain for Blackwell racks is improving, with three major ODM manufacturers reaching a monthly production of approximately 1,500 racks in April, expected to continue growing throughout the year [5]. - Analysts believe that the market has underestimated the importance of non-rack forms of Blackwell chips, as many customers are not ready to adopt liquid cooling technology or ARM processors [5]. Group 3: Long-term Growth Drivers - The explosive growth in AI inference demand is viewed as the fundamental driver of NVIDIA's long-term value [6]. - Major cloud providers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have reported "unexpected increases in Token usage," reflecting a surge in end-user demand for AI models [6][7]. - The demand for inference is driven by real business needs rather than venture-capital-supported training cluster construction, providing critical validation for NVIDIA's revenue sustainability [7]. Group 4: Performance Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on NVIDIA with a target price of $160, indicating a potential upside of approximately 21.87% from the current stock price of $131.29 [8]. - The path for a performance rebound in the second half of the year is clear, with recent issues being adequately warned and addressed [8]. - NVIDIA's revenue for the April quarter is estimated at approximately $42.2 billion, below the guidance of $43 billion, while the July quarter is projected at $43.5 billion, considering a $4-5 billion reduction in H20-related revenue [9].