（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面上，英伟达将于本周三公布最新财报，届时三季度指引将成为市场关注焦点。KeyBanc Capital Markets的最新报告显示，尽管面临中国市场的短期不确定性，英伟达的业务基本面依然强劲，为其长 期增长提供了有力支撑。在截至7月的财季中，英伟达的GPU供应量增长了40%，并预计随着B200的放 量，截至10月的财季供应量将再增长20%，并将英伟达的目标价从190美元上调至215美元，并维持"增 持"评级。 Susquehanna的分析师Christopher Rolland也看到了英伟达数据中心业务的持续动能，将其目 标价从180美元上调至210美元，并维持"正面"评级。 8月25日，AI算力、英伟达产业链股表现强势，截至14：38，中际旭创涨超13%价格再创新高，领益智 造涨停，深南电路、新易盛等纷纷走高，"同类规模最大"的5G通信ETF（515050）涨超4.7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is expected to report strong earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with projected revenues of $45 billion, reflecting a 53.2% year-over-year increase, although slightly below the consensus estimate of $46.03 billion [1][8]. Revenue Projections - The anticipated revenue for NVIDIA's Data Center business is $40.19 billion, indicating a robust year-over-year growth of 53% driven by demand for AI and cloud chips [7][8]. - The Gaming segment is projected to generate $3.81 billion in revenue, representing a 32.4% increase from the previous year [9]. - The Professional Visualization segment is estimated to achieve revenues of $529.1 million, reflecting a 16.5% year-over-year growth [10]. - The Automotive segment is expected to report revenues of $591.6 million, indicating a significant year-over-year growth of 67.7% [11]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has increased to $1.00 per share, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 47.1% from 68 cents per share [2]. - The Earnings ESP for NVIDIA is +3.14%, indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [5]. Market Performance - NVIDIA's stock has increased by 35.3% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology industry's growth of 18.7% [12]. - The company trades at a forward P/E of 34.78X, which is higher than the sector average of 27.24X, indicating a premium valuation [14]. Industry Trends - The global generative AI market is projected to reach $967.6 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 39.6% from 2024 to 2032, driving demand for NVIDIA's AI chips [20]. - NVIDIA's dominance in the generative AI chip market positions it favorably for substantial revenue growth as industries modernize their workflows [21]. Investment Considerations - NVIDIA's strong product portfolio and leadership in AI and data centers present a compelling investment opportunity, although its high valuation may lead to short-term volatility [22].

Summary of Conference Call on Scale Up Network Growth from NVIDIA's Perspective Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **Scale Up network** in the context of **NVIDIA** and its implications for the broader **computing power** industry, particularly in AI and parallel computing applications [1][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Scaling Law**: The concept of a "Scaling Law" in networks is proposed, emphasizing the need for larger cross-cabinet connections rather than just existing ASIC and cabinet solutions [1][5]. - **NVIDIA's Strategy**: NVIDIA aims to address hardware memory wall issues and parallel computing demands by increasing **Nvlink bandwidth** and expanding the **Up scale** from H100 to GH200, although initial adoption was low due to high costs and insufficient inference demand [6][8]. - **Memory Wall**: The memory wall refers to the disparity between the rapid growth of model parameters and computing power compared to memory speed, necessitating more HBM interconnect support for model inference and GPU operations [1][10]. - **Performance Metrics**: The GB200 card shows significant performance differences compared to B200, with a threefold performance gap at 10 TPS, which increases to sevenfold at 20 TPS, highlighting the advantages of Scale Up networks under increased communication pressure [4][14][15]. - **Future Demand**: As Scale Up demand becomes more apparent, segments such as **fiber optics**, **AEC**, and **switches** are expected to benefit significantly, driving market growth [9][28]. Additional Important Points - **Parallel Computing**: The evolution of computing paradigms is shifting towards GPU-based parallel computing, which includes various forms such as data parallelism and tensor parallelism, each with different communication frequency and data size requirements [11][12]. - **Network Expansion Needs**: The need for a second-layer network connection between cabinets is emphasized, with recommendations for using fiber optics and AEC to facilitate this expansion [4][23][24]. - **Market Trends**: The overall network connection growth rate is anticipated to outpace chip demand growth, benefiting the optical module and switch industries significantly [28][30]. - **Misconceptions in Market Understanding**: There is a prevalent misconception that Scale Up networks are limited to cabinet-level solutions, whereas they actually require larger networks composed of multiple cabinets to meet user TPS demands effectively [29][30]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the growth potential and strategic direction of the Scale Up network within the computing power industry.

Summary of NVIDIA Corp. Earnings Preview Company Overview - **Company**: NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA.O) - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Market Cap**: $4,471,945 million - **Current Stock Price**: $180.45 - **Price Target**: Increased from $200.00 to $206.00 Key Points Earnings Expectations - Expectations for NVIDIA's upcoming earnings are high, with a strong quarter anticipated, particularly for future growth rather than the current quarter [2][9] - Revenue estimates for July have been raised to $46.6 billion from $45.2 billion, and for October to $52.5 billion from $51.3 billion [9][21] Demand Insights - Demand is characterized as "remarkable," "insatiable," and "massive," particularly from hyperscale customers [4] - A notable shift in commentary from hyperscalers indicates a surge in inference demand, complicating capacity installation [4] - NVIDIA's largest hyperscale customers are driving significant growth, with three out of four highlighted at CES showing over 100% growth [4] Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply remains a critical factor, with improvements noted in rack assembly and overall supply chain dynamics [12][15] - Rack shipments are expected to double in Q3, with a total of approximately 34,000 racks for the year, translating to around $90 billion in revenue for NVIDIA [12] - Blackwell chip shipments are anticipated to accelerate, with estimates of 1.2 million units in October and 1.42 million in January [15] Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA is expected to maintain a significant market share of approximately 85% in 2026, despite competition from AMD and ASICs [18][20] - NVIDIA's R&D investments exceeding $15 billion annually are expected to enhance its competitive edge in AI and cloud solutions [20] Financial Projections - Fiscal Year 2026 estimates have been raised to $273.2 billion in revenue and $6.51 in EPS, reflecting a positive outlook for growth driven by AI and data center demand [21][35] - The consensus for the October quarter has increased by about $1 billion, indicating a positive market sentiment [17] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include uncertainties surrounding China’s market access and the impact of export controls on sales [17][44] - The competitive landscape may shift if AMD or other competitors gain traction in the GPU market [42] Conclusion - NVIDIA is positioned for strong growth driven by robust demand in AI and data centers, with supply chain improvements expected to support revenue growth in the coming quarters [29][35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on NVIDIA and AMD, highlighting strong demand and expected revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [4][5]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Financial Performance - NVIDIA is expected to report a revenue of $45.5 billion for the current quarter, with guidance of $45 billion, and $52.5 billion for the next quarter [4]. - The company anticipates shipping nearly 30,000 units of the GB200 and 10,000 units of the GB300 this year, along with 200,000 units of the B200 single card [4]. - The GB300 is projected to have a significant increase in shipments next year, with expectations raised to 100,000 units [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Product Developments - The server assembly industry is experiencing a resurgence, with all manufacturers showing positive performance [4]. - The GB200 and GB300 cabinets will utilize liquid cooling, which enhances performance by 25% and reduces power consumption by 30% compared to air cooling [4]. - AMD's single-chip performance is comparatively lower, prompting the company to recommend liquid cooling solutions to its clients [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) is positioned as a leader in ASIC technology, with a significant increase in liquid cooling adoption expected next year, projected to exceed 65% [5]. - The V7 TPU is expected to achieve 4,614 TFlops, a 2.5 times increase over the V6, with memory capacity also increasing by 4.5 times [5]. - The lower cost of the TPU compared to the B200 suggests a potential shift towards more affordable domestic products in the market [5].

Core Viewpoint - AMD is facing significant challenges in the AI chip market, primarily due to supply chain constraints and competition from NVIDIA, despite recent stock price recovery and product launches [1][3][12]. Group 1: AMD's Product Developments - AMD's MI300 series was launched in December 2023, featuring memory 2.4 times that of NVIDIA's H100 and memory bandwidth 1.6 times higher, positioning it as a strong competitor in the AI chip market [3]. - The MI325X chip, intended to compete with NVIDIA's H200, is expected to start production in Q4 2024, but faces competition from NVIDIA's B200 [7][8]. - The MI350 series, released in June, utilizes TSMC's 3nm process and integrates 1,850 billion transistors, with a performance capability of 20 PFLOPS, significantly enhancing AMD's competitive stance [17][24]. Group 2: Market Performance and Stock Movements - AMD's stock price rebounded from a low of $76.48 in April to over $170, a rise of more than 100%, driven by the MI350 series launch and expectations of increased market share in server CPUs [12][15]. - Despite the stock price increase, AMD's sales expectations for the MI300 series remain below market expectations, primarily due to supply chain limitations rather than demand [6][21]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA's dominance in the AI chip market is underscored by its significant market share and superior product performance, with NVIDIA's data center revenue growing by 154% compared to AMD's 14% [24]. - AMD's market share in the server market has increased from 2% to 36.5% over eight years, but it still lags behind NVIDIA in overall revenue and profitability [12][24]. - The software ecosystem remains a critical disadvantage for AMD, with NVIDIA's CUDA framework covering over 90% of AI developers, while AMD's ROCm7 lacks the same level of community support and optimization [27]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming MI400 series aims to compete directly with NVIDIA's DGX SuperPod ecosystem, with significant investments in AI infrastructure expected from major tech companies [19][20]. - AMD's strategy focuses on being a viable alternative in the AI chip market, with the belief that the market can support multiple players, rather than solely aiming to defeat NVIDIA [30].

Core Viewpoint - AMD is facing significant challenges in the AI chip market, primarily due to supply chain constraints and competition from NVIDIA, despite recent stock price recovery and product launches [2][3][5]. Group 1: AMD's Market Position and Product Launches - AMD's MI300 series was launched in December 2023, aiming to compete directly with NVIDIA's H100 series, featuring 2.4 times the memory and 1.6 times the memory bandwidth of H100 [10][11]. - The stock price of AMD surged nearly 75% from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024, driven by high expectations for MI300's sales [12]. - Despite the initial boost from MI300, AMD's sales expectations fell short, leading to market skepticism [15]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Competitive Landscape - Supply chain limitations, rather than market demand, are constraining MI300's output, as NVIDIA has secured a significant portion of TSMC's CoWos packaging capacity [16]. - AMD's MI325X, intended to compete with NVIDIA's H200, faces challenges due to slower iteration speed and competition from NVIDIA's B200, which has superior hardware specifications [18][40]. - AMD's market share in the server segment has increased from 2% to 36.5% over eight years, aided by the release of the MI350 series and easing export restrictions [22]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - AMD's financial performance remains below that of NVIDIA, with a 14% year-over-year growth in data center revenue compared to NVIDIA's 154% [40]. - The company reported a gross margin of 40%, which could rise to 54% if inventory write-downs are excluded [26]. - Analysts express concerns over AMD's ability to meet the strong demand for AI infrastructure, with unclear revenue projections for the second half of the year [36][38]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages and Challenges - AMD's MI350 series, utilizing TSMC's 3nm process, integrates 185 billion transistors and offers competitive performance at a lower price point than NVIDIA's offerings, appealing to cost-sensitive customers [28][42]. - However, NVIDIA's established ecosystem and rental services provide a competitive edge, making it difficult for AMD to gain traction in the mid-term rental market [43]. - The software ecosystem remains a critical weakness for AMD, with NVIDIA's CUDA dominating over 90% of AI developers, while AMD's ROCm lacks depth and community support [44]. Group 5: Market Potential and Strategic Positioning - The AI chip market is large enough to accommodate multiple players, and AMD aims to position itself as a viable alternative rather than a direct competitor to NVIDIA [49][50]. - The ongoing demand for AI infrastructure is expected to drive higher revenue ceilings for AMD, with potential market share recovery anticipated by the end of 2023 or early 2024 [47].

Core Viewpoint - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has experienced solid growth despite temporary challenges from the Chinese export ban, with a year-to-date stock increase of approximately 30% following a recent dip after Q2 earnings results [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - AMD's overall revenue increased by 32% to $7.69 billion in Q2, but adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell by 30% to $0.48, missing analyst expectations [8] - The data center segment, AMD's primary growth driver, saw a revenue increase of 14% to $3.2 billion, impacted by the inability to sell MI308 GPUs in China [3][8] - The client and gaming segment experienced a significant revenue surge of 69% to $3.6 billion, driven by strong CPU share gains and demand for new gaming GPUs [6] - The embedded segment reported a 4% revenue decline to $824 million, with expectations for sequential growth in the second half of the year [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - AMD's data center revenue would have grown approximately 39% if not for the $700 million negative impact from the Chinese export restrictions [10] - The company is seeing increasing adoption of its MI300 and MI325 GPUs, with seven out of ten top model builders and AI companies utilizing its products [4] - AMD's CPUs are gaining market share in the server space, driven by rising demand for cloud and on-premises computing and investments in AI infrastructure [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - AMD projects Q3 revenue growth of 28% to $8.7 billion, excluding potential revenue from MI308 shipments to China [8] - The company is on track to introduce its M400 chip, aiming to compete with Nvidia's next-generation Rubin chip, indicating future growth potential in the AI inference market [10][11] - The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27.5 times 2026 analyst estimates, suggesting potential upside if AMD becomes a significant player in the AI inference market [11]

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Greater China Semiconductors** industry, particularly the cloud semiconductor (CSP) sector in the Asia Pacific region [1][7]. Key Points 1. **Increased Capital Expenditure (Capex) for Top CSPs**: - The top four US CSPs (Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft) are projected to have a capex of **US$359 billion** in 2025 and **US$454 billion** in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth of **57%** and **26%** respectively [4][10]. - This is an upward revision from previous forecasts of **38%** and **17%** growth [4]. 2. **Strong Demand from Non-US Markets**: - There is an underestimation of demand from non-US countries, particularly for PCIe/HGX servers, with expectations of strong demand for B200 and B300 products in late 3Q [5][10]. - The AP team noted that tier 2 CSPs are catching up on capex, with the AI server pipeline expected to be larger than that of the top CSPs [10]. 3. **Supply Chain Improvements**: - Supply chain manufacturing issues are improving, with better assembly yields for GB200 racks and no notable issues expected for GB300 sampling starting in 3Q [5][10]. - A specific datacenter project is expected to utilize **28,000 GB200 NVL72 racks** for a **4.5GW** datacenter [5]. 4. **Cloud Capex Growth**: - The cumulative capex for the top 11 cloud providers is expected to reach **US$445 billion** in 2025, an increase from prior estimates, indicating a significant rise in capital intensity [17]. - The overall capital intensity is projected to exceed **18%**, with forecasts suggesting it could surpass **20%** of revenue in 2026 [17]. 5. **Positive Outlook for Aspeed Technology**: - The company maintains an **Overweight (OW)** rating on Aspeed Technology, citing its current valuation of **40x 2026e P/E**, which is below the historical average of **47x** since 2020 [6][11]. Additional Insights - The market appears overly concerned about potential inventory corrections, which may not materialize as expected [11]. - The conference highlighted the importance of ongoing improvements in manufacturing yields and the potential for increased demand from non-US markets, which could provide significant growth opportunities for companies in the semiconductor sector [5][10]. Conclusion - The Greater China Semiconductors industry, particularly in the cloud segment, is poised for substantial growth driven by increased capex from major CSPs, improving supply chain conditions, and strong demand from non-US markets. The positive outlook for specific companies like Aspeed Technology further underscores the potential for investment opportunities in this sector [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic partnership between Xingheng Power and Niu Electric has reached a milestone with the cumulative supply of lithium batteries exceeding 2.8 million sets, showcasing both technological strength and market recognition [2]. Group 1: Partnership Milestone - The collaboration between Xingheng Power and Niu Electric has lasted nearly 10 years since 2016, resulting in the delivery of 2.8 million lithium battery sets, marking a significant achievement in their long-term strategic partnership [2]. - The partnership has led to the joint development of numerous popular models, with several products achieving sales exceeding 100,000 units, including models like Niu F100, F200, and F400T [2]. Group 2: Product Performance and Market Impact - The high-performance lithium battery systems developed by Xingheng Power have been recognized globally for their excellent discharge performance, strong power, long endurance, and safety features [2]. - The collaboration emphasizes user value and industry advancement, setting a benchmark for technological synergy and market success, while accelerating the industry's move towards "long endurance, high performance, and high safety" [2]. Group 3: Future Developments - Upcoming new products targeting the electric self-balancing and electric motorcycle markets will feature breakthroughs in endurance, power, and safety performance, enhancing the overall user experience [3].