Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the LCD industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The LCD industry is experiencing a stabilization in capacity, with a concentration of market share expected due to the shutdown and sale of production lines by overseas manufacturers. This is anticipated to enhance the pricing power of LCD TV panel producers, leading to improved profitability [6] - The report highlights the growth potential of leading domestic panel manufacturers like BOE Technology Group, which is well-positioned to benefit from China's consumption upgrade and localization trends [6] Market Performance Review - From December 2025 to January 2026, the panel index increased by 11.55%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component by 5.76 percentage points and 2.53 percentage points, respectively [4] - As of January 20, 2026, the total market capitalization of the A-share panel industry was 604.92 billion yuan, with an overall price-to-book ratio of 1.71x, positioned at the 82.5 percentile of the past five years [4][12] Price & Cost Analysis - In January 2026, the prices of various sizes of LCD TV panels increased, with 32, 43, 50, 55, and 65-inch panels priced at $34, $61, $92, $115, and $163 respectively, reflecting increases of 3.0%, 1.7%, 1.1%, 0.9%, and 0.6% month-over-month [19] - Omdia forecasts further price increases for February 2026, with expected prices of $36, $63, $94, $117, and $165 for the same sizes, indicating month-over-month increases of 5.9%, 3.3%, 2.2%, 1.7%, and 1.2% [19] Supply & Demand Dynamics - In December 2025, the global shipment area for large-sized LCD panels grew by 8.82% year-over-year, with notable increases in shipments for TVs (8.74%), monitors (4.44%), notebooks (13.27%), and tablets (21.30%) [5][27] - The report anticipates a 2.31% increase in global large-sized LCD capacity area in 2024 compared to 2023, with a slight growth forecast for 2025 [5] Performance Review - The global revenue for large-sized LCD panels in December 2025 reached $6.423 billion, marking a month-over-month increase of 15.52% and a year-over-year increase of 4.71% [57] - The report notes that BOE, TCL, and Huike experienced varying revenue growth rates in December 2025, with BOE's revenue at $1.6 billion, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 8.11% [60]

Core Viewpoint - The LCD panel prices are expected to decline in August 2025, with a potential increase in demand as the year-end sales season approaches [1][3][5]. Price Summary - In July 2025, the prices for 32, 43, 50, 55, and 65-inch LCD TV panels were $36, $63, $95, $121, and $170 respectively, with month-over-month declines of 5.3%, 1.6%, 7.8%, 5.5%, and 3.4% [1][3]. - Omdia forecasts that in August 2025, the prices will further decline to $34, $62, $92, $118, and $167, with respective month-over-month decreases of 5.6%, 1.6%, 3.2%, 2.5%, and 1.8% [1][3]. - For IT panels, prices for 10.1-inch, 14-inch, and 23.8-inch LCD panels remained stable at $16.3, $26.2, and $44.8 respectively in July 2025 [3]. Supply & Demand Analysis - In June 2025, the global shipment area for large-size LCD panels decreased by 3.46% year-over-year, with TV panel shipments down by 6.23% [4]. - The global large-size LCD production capacity is expected to grow by 2.31% in 2024 compared to 2023, with a slight increase of 0.21% anticipated in 2025 [4]. Industry Outlook - The LCD industry is stabilizing, with a concentration of market share due to the shutdown and sale of overseas production lines, which may help regulate LCD TV panel prices [5]. - The profitability of LCD panel companies is expected to improve as the cyclical nature of the industry diminishes and growth attributes become more prominent [5]. Investment Recommendations - The industry recommends investing in leading domestic panel manufacturers like BOE Technology Group (京东方A) to capitalize on the benefits of domestic consumption upgrades and market share advantages [6]. - Other recommended companies include Zhaochi Co., Ltd. (兆驰股份), Kangguan Technology (康冠科技), and Visionox Technology (视源股份) [6].

Group 1: Financial Status and Funding - Beijing Electric Control Investment has fully paid its capital contribution by June 2025 [1] - Suzhou Yiming and Suzhou Yisi have also completed their capital contributions by June 2025 [1] - The total investment for the TAC film Phase I project is approximately 500 million RMB, with 376.67 million RMB already received from shareholders [2][3] Group 2: Project Progress - The procurement of customized equipment for the TAC film project is ongoing, with major contracts signed and equipment expected to be delivered by the end of the year [4] - Construction of the factory has commenced following the acquisition of the construction permit in June 2025 [4] - Laboratory test results for the trial film align with internal testing, confirming the project's technical viability [4] Group 3: Arbitration and Legal Matters - An arbitration case with Baidefu was initiated due to disputes over technical standards and pricing adjustments, with no significant progress reported since acceptance in May 2025 [5][6] - A small advance payment of 3.85 million RMB has been made to Baidefu, and a change in equipment suppliers is expected to mitigate project impacts [6] Group 4: Market Trends - The LCD panel industry is experiencing fluctuating demand, with a strong first quarter driven by export demand and policy incentives, followed by a cooling second quarter [6] - As of July, prices for certain LCD TV sizes have slightly decreased, while prices for MNT and NB panels remain stable [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the LCD industry [2] Core Viewpoints - BOE plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, which is expected to optimize the competitive landscape of the panel industry [4][6] - The average gross margin of major Chinese LCD manufacturers increased by 1.81 percentage points year-on-year and 3.60 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 14.89% in Q1 2025 [5] - The report indicates a downward trend in TV panel prices, with expectations of further declines in July [6][22] - The global large-size LCD panel shipment area decreased by 6.08% year-on-year in May 2025, with specific declines in TV and monitor shipments [9][32] Market Performance - From May 2025 to the present, the panel index has risen by 3.54%, outperforming major stock indices [8][15] - As of June 23, 2025, the total market capitalization of the A-share panel industry was 513.69 billion yuan, with an overall price-to-book ratio of 1.49x, at the 57.3 percentile of the past five years [15][20] Price & Cost - In June 2025, the prices of various sizes of LCD TV panels decreased, with a forecasted further decline in July [6][22] - The prices for IT panels remained stable across different sizes in June 2025 [7][22] Supply & Demand - The report forecasts a 2.31% increase in global large-size LCD capacity in 2024 compared to 2023, with a slight growth of 0.21% expected in 2025 [9][26] - The demand for large-size LCD panels is projected to decline, particularly in the TV segment, which saw an 8.01% year-on-year decrease in shipment area in May 2025 [9][32] Performance Review - In May 2025, global large-size LCD panel revenue was $6.195 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.72% [57] - Major manufacturers' revenues showed varied performance, with BOE's revenue at $1.78 billion, down 12.92% year-on-year [60]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The LCD industry is shifting from competition based on scale and market share to a focus on high-profit applications, high-value products, advanced technology, and high-value brands, promoting high-quality development in the industry [1][2] - The average utilization rate of the LCD industry has been recovering since November 2024, maintaining above 80% in Q1 2025, with adjustments made in Q2 based on demand [3] Group 2: Pricing Trends - LCD TV panel prices have risen since January 2025 due to strong terminal demand, but are expected to stabilize in May 2025 as procurement demand cools [4] - MNT panel prices are experiencing moderate increases, while NB panel prices remain stable [4] Group 3: Company Developments - The 8.6 generation AMOLED production line in Chengdu began equipment installation four months ahead of schedule, transitioning from construction to operational phase [5] - In 2024, the revenue structure for display devices is projected to be: TV 26%, IT 34%, LCD mobile and others 13%, and OLED 27% [6][7] Group 4: Financial Outlook - The company anticipates depreciation of approximately 38 billion in 2024, with an increase compared to 2023 due to the completion of depreciation for several high-generation lines [8] - Depreciation is expected to peak this year as new projects are completed and mature lines reach the end of their depreciation period [8] Group 5: Industry Integration - The company is open to participating in industry consolidation, considering factors such as industry layout, market structure, and integration costs [9]

Group 1: BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. (京东方A) - BOE Technology indicated that the prices of mainstream LCD TV panels will rise starting January 2025 and continue until March 2025 [1] - The average operating rate of the LCD industry is expected to increase from November 2024, maintaining above 80% in Q1 2025 [1] - The company aims to ship approximately 140 million flexible MOLED panels in 2024, with a target of 170 million in 2025 [1] - Depreciation is projected to be around 38 billion in 2024, with minimal fluctuations in 2025 and 2026 [1] - Capital expenditures will focus on semiconductor display business and IoT innovations [1] - In 2024, the revenue breakdown for display devices will be 26% from TV, 34% from IT, and 40% from mobile and other products, with OLED business revenue accounting for 27% [1] - The company plans to repurchase minority shareholder equity based on operational performance and cash flow [1] Group 2: Guangguang Technology (聚光科技) - Changes in tariff policies have increased procurement costs for scientific instruments but present strategic opportunities for domestic manufacturers [2] - The company's business restructuring has improved gross margins and reduced costs, with plans to increase investment in advantageous business areas [2] - The subsidiary, Lingxi Optoelectronics, has a high-precision greenhouse gas analyzer, with a rapidly growing contract amount expected in 2024 [2] - Laboratory instruments are experiencing good growth, and the environmental monitoring market is steadily increasing, focusing on high-end instruments centered around mass spectrometers [2] - The company aims to establish a modern environmental management model based on "intelligent perception - precise decision-making - closed-loop management" [2] - Goodwill is approximately 200 million, with impairment testing required based on the operational status of each company [2] Group 3: Shanghai Mingcun Investment Management Co., Ltd. (明汯投资) - Shanghai Mingcun Investment was established in 2014 with a registered capital of 10 million, focusing on quantitative investment [3] - The company utilizes strong data mining, statistical analysis, and software development capabilities to create a systematic trading and asset management platform [3] - Investment strategies include quantitative stock selection, CTA, and arbitrage, with a diverse strategy development team [3] - The firm has a deep understanding of the financial securities market, covering market analysis, strategy development, asset allocation, risk management, and system development [3] - Mingcun Investment is recognized as a leading quantitative investment institution in China, integrating international experience with local market conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The LCD TV panel prices are expected to continue rising in March 2025, driven by stable demand and the impact of China's trade-in policy [3][10]. Group 1: Market Overview - From February 2025 to the present, the panel index has increased by 2.24%, underperforming compared to major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component [3][8]. - As of March 13, 2025, the total market capitalization of the A-share panel industry is 562.467 billion yuan, with an overall price-to-book ratio of 1.61x, which is at the 61.0% percentile of the past five years [3][8]. Group 2: Price & Cost - In February 2025, the prices for various sizes of LCD TV panels were as follows: 32-inch at $38, 43-inch at $64, 50-inch at $103, 55-inch at $129, and 65-inch at $177, with month-on-month increases of 2.7%, 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.8%, and 1.1% respectively [10]. - The prices for IT panels in February 2025 remained stable for most sizes, with a slight increase for the 23.8-inch panel [10]. Group 3: Supply & Demand - In January 2025, the global shipment area for large-size LCD panels increased by 7.34% year-on-year, with a total shipment of 71.494 million units, reflecting a 12.42% year-on-year growth [14][17]. - The average size of LCD TVs is projected to increase, contributing to the growth in demand for LCD panels [20]. Group 4: Performance Review - In January 2025, the global revenue for large-size LCD panels was $5.426 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.85% [37]. - Major LCD manufacturers in China reported a total revenue of 510.133 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.94% [42]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in the LCD panel supply chain, particularly BOE Technology Group [7].

点击 关注我们 报告发布日期：2025年3月20日 报告名称:《LCD行业月报- 预计3月LCD TV面板价格延续增长 》 分析师：胡剑 S0980521080001/胡慧 S0980521080002/ 叶 子 S0980522100003 / 詹浏洋 S0980524060001 / 张大为 S0980524100002/李书颖S0980522100003 联系人：连欣然 完整报告请扫描下方二维码 国信研究 LCD行业月报-预计3月LCD TV面板价格延 续揭长 2025-03-20 | 胡剑 胡慧 叶子 张大为 连欣然 行情&业绩回顾：2025年2月至今面板(申万)指数 上涨2.24%,3Q24中国主要LCD厂商平均毛利率同环比下 滑行情回顾:2025年2月至今面板(申万)指数上涨2.24% ，跑输上证指数、深证成指、沪深300指数1.09pct、3.4 8pct、0.24pct;其中深天马A、龙腾光电分别上涨1.07% 、1.35%，京东方A、TCL科技、彩虹股份分别下跌3.36 %、6.39%、8.14%。估值方面,截至3月13日A股面板行 业总市值5624.67亿元,整体PB (LF) 为1.61 ...