1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic polyethylene spot price increased overall, with a weekly fluctuation range of 274 - 408 yuan/ton. Due to frequent switching of news and the tense Middle - East situation, the price is in a high - level oscillation. The core contradiction lies in the game between "cost support brought by geopolitics" and "weak spot demand and inventory pressure". In the short term, the plastic futures are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend, but the amplitude will still be large. The demand improvement space is limited [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - This week, the domestic polyethylene spot price rose overall, with a weekly fluctuation of 274 - 408 yuan/ton. The HDPE film was reported at 9186 yuan/ton, up 367 yuan/ton from last week; the LDPE film was 10984 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton; the LLDPE film was 9070 yuan/ton, up 316 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - This week, the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 76.24%, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous period. The domestic polyethylene supply decreased to 63.23 tons, a decrease of 3.17 tons from the previous period, mainly due to some device overhauls and tightened raw material supply. Next period, the overall production is expected to increase as some devices plan to restart while some new devices plan to be overhauled [3]. Downstream Demand - This week, the overall downstream industry's starting rate was 39.75%, an increase of 2.16% from last week. Although the demand showed a marginal improvement, it was still at a low level. The starting rate of PE packaging film and agricultural film increased, but the demand was still restricted. The demand of the packaging industry increased slightly by 3%, while that of the home appliance industry decreased by 2%, showing obvious demand differentiation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Geopolitical situation supports costs: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict has not eased, and the confrontation between the US and Iran has led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, pushing up the cost curve of oil - based chemical products [5]. - Supply contraction expectation: Some domestic PE devices are under overhaul, and the supply is reduced due to production cuts in Middle - East oil fields and import obstacles, which supports the futures price [5]. - Marginal improvement in downstream demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has increased, and the replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises has risen during the decline of the futures price, which supports the price [5]. Negative Factors - Macroeconomic sentiment disturbance: The sharp rise in US bond yields has cooled the global risk appetite. The geopolitical news is full of long - short games, causing the plastic futures to fluctuate sharply and the previous gains to be partially reversed [5]. - Weak spot demand: Although the downstream starting rate has increased, the high - price raw materials have inhibited the downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot trading has been weak [5]. - Inventory pressure: The overall inventory level is moderately high, the LLDPE inventory has not shown obvious destocking, and the inventory destocking pressure still exists [5]. Market Outlook - In the short term, due to the high uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the continued supply contraction in China until April, the plastic futures are difficult to fall back to the pre - event level and are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend. If the Middle - East situation eases, the previous risk premium will gradually be reversed. The downstream demand is expected to improve as the industry enters the peak season, but the inhibitory effect of high - price raw materials on demand needs attention [6].

Report Title - Polyethylene: Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is transitioning to the peak season [1] Core View - Although supply is at a high level, the pressure is expected to ease as more units undergo maintenance. Downstream demand continues to rise, purchasing power strengthens, social inventory turns from increasing to decreasing, and demand is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, boosting market sentiment. The overall downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded but is still weaker than the same period in previous years. In the short term, as more units undergo maintenance, supply is expected to decline, inventory will continue to be depleted, and demand will transition to the peak season, resulting in an improvement in the supply - demand margin. The polyethylene market is expected to trend strongly overall [3] Content Summary Price - This week, domestic polyethylene spot prices showed mixed trends, with a weekly fluctuation range of 8 - 64 yuan/ton. Supported by positive macro factors and stable overall supply, LDPE and LLDPE prices remained firm. HDPE prices slightly declined due to increased supply of some products and poor sales. Specifically, HDPE film was reported at 7969 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from last week; LDPE film was at 9583 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton; LLDPE film was at 7466 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [3] Supply - This week, the domestic polyethylene supply changed little, with a production volume of 66.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose to 86.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The production this period involved the restart of units at Yanchang Zhongmei, Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Liaoyang Petrochemical, and the new maintenance of units at Guoneng Xinjiang and Fushun Petrochemical. Next period, market supply is expected to decrease due to new planned maintenance at Fushun Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, Lianyungang Petrochemical, etc., and the non - restart of previously maintained units [3] Downstream Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of the polyethylene downstream industry was 39.47%, a slight increase of 0.35% from last week, but it is expected to drop by 0.57% next week and is still weaker than the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry was 13.82%, a recovery of 0.75% from the previous period. In the shed film market, order follow - up was slow, and although corporate operations improved, they were still at a low level year - on - year. For mulch film, due to some enterprises receiving tender orders, the production level slightly increased, driving the improvement of the industry's operating rate. The operating rate of the PE packaging film industry was 49.07%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period. Currently, only some rigid - demand orders are delivered periodically, short - term contracts for daily chemical packaging are insufficiently supplemented, industrial packaging consumption is weak, terminal inventory - building willingness is low, and the number of order production days has decreased, resulting in insufficient support for the operating rate and a slight month - on - month decline [3]