Report Title - Polyethylene: Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is transitioning to the peak season [1] Core View - Although supply is at a high level, the pressure is expected to ease as more units undergo maintenance. Downstream demand continues to rise, purchasing power strengthens, social inventory turns from increasing to decreasing, and demand is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, boosting market sentiment. The overall downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded but is still weaker than the same period in previous years. In the short term, as more units undergo maintenance, supply is expected to decline, inventory will continue to be depleted, and demand will transition to the peak season, resulting in an improvement in the supply - demand margin. The polyethylene market is expected to trend strongly overall [3] Content Summary Price - This week, domestic polyethylene spot prices showed mixed trends, with a weekly fluctuation range of 8 - 64 yuan/ton. Supported by positive macro factors and stable overall supply, LDPE and LLDPE prices remained firm. HDPE prices slightly declined due to increased supply of some products and poor sales. Specifically, HDPE film was reported at 7969 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from last week; LDPE film was at 9583 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton; LLDPE film was at 7466 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [3] Supply - This week, the domestic polyethylene supply changed little, with a production volume of 66.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose to 86.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The production this period involved the restart of units at Yanchang Zhongmei, Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Liaoyang Petrochemical, and the new maintenance of units at Guoneng Xinjiang and Fushun Petrochemical. Next period, market supply is expected to decrease due to new planned maintenance at Fushun Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, Lianyungang Petrochemical, etc., and the non - restart of previously maintained units [3] Downstream Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of the polyethylene downstream industry was 39.47%, a slight increase of 0.35% from last week, but it is expected to drop by 0.57% next week and is still weaker than the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry was 13.82%, a recovery of 0.75% from the previous period. In the shed film market, order follow - up was slow, and although corporate operations improved, they were still at a low level year - on - year. For mulch film, due to some enterprises receiving tender orders, the production level slightly increased, driving the improvement of the industry's operating rate. The operating rate of the PE packaging film industry was 49.07%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period. Currently, only some rigid - demand orders are delivered periodically, short - term contracts for daily chemical packaging are insufficiently supplemented, industrial packaging consumption is weak, terminal inventory - building willingness is low, and the number of order production days has decreased, resulting in insufficient support for the operating rate and a slight month - on - month decline [3]

Group 1 - The main plastic futures contract experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7339.00 yuan, with a closing price of 7339.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.66% [1] - Zhonghui Futures suggests a bearish outlook for plastic, citing an increase in supply with 2.08 million tons of new capacity from companies like Wanhua and the startup of Shandong New Era's facility [2] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures indicates that the short-term trend for plastic will continue to rebound and repair prices, supported by a recent rebound in international crude oil prices [3] Group 2 - The demand side shows a decline in agricultural film operating rates for four consecutive weeks, indicating weak demand [2] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive due to the recent consensus reached during the China-US meeting, which may support plastic prices [3] - The recommendation from Zhonghui Futures is to gradually take profits on long positions and avoid chasing higher prices, while monitoring the price trends of crude oil and coal [2]