证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月17日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251217 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [table_summary] ➢ 1.布局围绕AI基建相关设备领域成长机遇——机械设备2026年投资策略 ➢ 2.内需仍有压力，关注积极定调后增量政策的出台——国内观察：2025年11月经济数据 ➢ 3.企业短期贷款与债券融资较好，存款季节性回表——银行业"量价质"跟踪（二十一） ➢ 1.商务部：对原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品征收反倾销税 ➢ 2.海南自贸港将于12月18日全岛封关运作 ➢ 3.美国11月季调后非农就业人口增6.4万人，预期增5万人 | 1.1. 布局围绕 | 基建相关设备领域成长机遇——机械设备 | 年投资策略 | AI | 2026 | ...

Summary of Ningbo Tuopu Group (601689.SS) Management Meeting Company Overview - **Company**: Ningbo Tuopu Group - **Industry**: Automotive parts manufacturing Key Points Order Recovery and Growth - Management reported a recovery in orders with double-digit growth starting from September 2025, expected to continue into 2026, driven by increased orders from a key customer and other North American OEMs [1][5] - Current order backlog is estimated at RMB 38 billion to RMB 40 billion, with 20% from overseas and 80% from China [5] Pricing and Margin Outlook - The company sees limited room for further price cuts on auto parts, expecting overall gross margins to remain stable with net margins projected at 10%-12% [1][2] - Despite anticipated revenue growth of 20% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, margin pressure is expected due to potential slowdowns in the automotive market [2] Emerging Business Segments - **Robotics**: Production is set to start in 2026, but ramp-up timing remains uncertain. The company aims to maintain a dominant market share despite competition from new entrants [1][6] - **Liquid Cooling**: Targeting production to begin in January 2026, with an expected annual order amount of RMB 350 million [7] Capital Expenditure and Utilization - The company forecasts annual capital expenditures of RMB 3 billion to RMB 4 billion, excluding humanoid robot-related capex, which is projected at RMB 7 billion to RMB 8 billion for a capacity of 1 million units [7] - With improved production utilization at the Mexico factory, depreciation is expected to decrease to 6% of total revenue in 2026 and 5% thereafter, down from 7.25% in the first nine months of 2025 [7] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include fluctuations in key customer sales volume, pricing pressure from OEM customers, and the pace of new product adoption [7] - Uncertainty exists regarding the continuation of trade-in subsidies and NEV purchase tax increases, which could impact market growth [2] Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 25% for 2026 based on the current order backlog [2] - The target price for Ningbo Tuopu Group is set at RMB 66.0, based on a 20X P/E ratio for 2030E, discounted back to mid-2026E at a 10% cost of equity [7] Additional Insights - The company is collaborating with domestic robotics firms, enhancing its position in the robotics supply chain [6] - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of performance in 2026, citing alleviated pricing pressures and a broader client base [5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the management meeting of Ningbo Tuopu Group, highlighting the company's growth trajectory, emerging business segments, and the associated risks and financial outlook.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: AI Infrastructure in China - **Projected AI Capex**: China’s AI capital expenditure (capex) is expected to reach RMB800 billion (approximately US$110 billion) by 2030, accounting for one-third of total AI capex in China [1][62] - **Global AI Capex**: Global AI-related capex is projected to exceed US$1.2 trillion by 2030, nearly tripling from 2025 levels [1][54] - **China's AI Capex Growth**: Expected to grow from RMB600-700 billion (US$85-95 billion) in 2025 to RMB2-2.5 trillion (US$280-350 billion) by 2030, with a CAGR of 25-30% [1][61] Power Demand and Data Centers - **Power Consumption**: China's data centers are projected to consume 277 TWh of electricity by 2030, up from 102 TWh in 2024, representing a CAGR of 18% [1][42] - **Global Data Center Power Demand**: Global data center power consumption is expected to grow 2.3 times from 416 TWh in 2024 to 946 TWh in 2030 [1][28] Opportunities in Power Supply - **Nuclear Power**: China's nuclear capacity is expected to grow from 60 GW in 2025 to 100 GW in 2030, accounting for 60% of global capacity under construction [2][29] - **Power Equipment Demand**: Strong demand for transformers and power equipment is anticipated due to grid upgrades and rising renewable energy investments [2][45] - **Energy Storage Systems (ESS)**: The global ESS market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21% from 2024 to 2030, with significant growth in China [2][47] Cooling and Metals Demand - **Cooling Market Growth**: The liquid cooling market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 42% from 2025 to 2030, driven by the increasing power density of AI workloads [3][50] - **Copper and Aluminum Demand**: Direct AI use of copper is projected to reach approximately 1 million tons by 2030, accounting for 5-6% of total copper demand. Data centers are expected to drive 936 kt of copper demand by 2030 [3][49] Investment Recommendations - **Key Stocks**: - **Power Equipment**: Buy recommendations for Sieyuan, Jinpan, and Huaming due to expected growth in power equipment demand [2][45] - **Nuclear**: Buy CGN Mining and Doosan Enerbility for exposure to nuclear power growth [2][44] - **Cooling Solutions**: Buy AVC for liquid cooling solutions [3][50] - **Metals**: Buy Zijin Mining, CMOC, and Chalco for copper and aluminum exposure [3][49] Additional Insights - **Government Support**: Continued government spending and initiatives are expected to drive AI capex growth in China [1][61] - **Energy Security**: The link between AI leadership and energy security is emphasized, highlighting the need for reliable power sources [1][42] - **Technological Advancements**: Emerging technologies in cooling and power supply are expected to create further investment opportunities [2][48] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the AI infrastructure landscape in China, highlighting the expected growth in capital expenditure, power demand, and investment opportunities across various sectors.

Summary of Global Server Cooling Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Global Server Cooling** market, particularly focusing on the **AI server** segment and the adoption of **liquid cooling** technologies. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Forecasts**: - The **Global Server Cooling Total Addressable Market (TAM)** is projected to grow significantly, with estimates for 2025 and 2026 raised to **US$7.9 billion** and **US$14.0 billion**, respectively, reflecting a **9%** and **16%** increase from previous estimates [1][2][16]. - The TAM for AI training servers is expected to increase from **US$1.5 billion** to **US$12.4 billion** from 2024 to 2027, representing a **101% CAGR** [1]. 2. **Liquid Cooling Penetration**: - Liquid cooling penetration rates for AI training servers are forecasted to reach **15%** in 2024, escalating to **80%** by 2027. For AI inferencing servers, penetration is expected to rise from **1%** to **20%** over the same period [1][2][17]. - The ongoing increase in liquid cooling adoption is attributed to the rising computing power of GPUs and ASICs, denser server designs, and the need for improved power efficiency in data centers [1]. 3. **Growth Drivers**: - The growth in the cooling TAM is driven by the increasing volume of high-power AI servers that require advanced cooling solutions, particularly liquid cooling, which offers higher cooling efficiency compared to air cooling [1][2][16]. - Innovations in cooling technologies, such as double-sided cold plates and microfluidics solutions, are enhancing heat exchange efficiency and thermal performance, further supporting the growth of the liquid cooling market [22]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: - The report indicates a strong year-over-year growth forecast for the server cooling market, with **111%** growth expected in 2025 and **77%** in 2026 [8][23]. - The cooling solutions market is evolving with new designs and technologies to meet the increasing thermal demands of AI servers [22]. 5. **Competitive Landscape**: - Key players in the liquid cooling market include companies like **Wiwynn**, **Lenovo**, **Dell**, and **HP**, with varying ratings and market caps provided [28]. - The report highlights the importance of customization and rapid response capabilities for cooling suppliers to adapt to new technologies and market demands [22]. Additional Important Content - The report includes detailed tables summarizing the projected TAM for various server types, including AI training, general, and HPC servers, along with their respective liquid cooling penetration rates [2][8][23]. - It emphasizes the need for cooling suppliers to enhance their product offerings and capabilities to keep pace with technological advancements in the server industry [22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Global Server Cooling market, focusing on growth forecasts, market dynamics, and competitive landscape.