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半年报业绩预告总结及展望,关注下半年旺季下的高景气赛道
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-21 04:41
Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Views - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory in 2025, driven by AI and domestic substitution [18][19] - The second quarter performance of various companies in the semiconductor sector has been impressive, with expectations for a strong third quarter during the peak season [19] - The storage segment is projected to see significant price increases, with contract prices for DRAM expected to rise by 15%-20% and NAND by 5%-10% in Q3 [14][16] Summary by Sections 1. Half-Year Performance Forecast Summary - The design sector has shown comprehensive growth, with companies like Rockchip and Espressif benefiting from AI demand and domestic substitution [14][21] - The analog chip sector, led by Chipone, has also seen significant profit growth due to industry recovery and technological breakthroughs [14] - Equipment and materials companies are experiencing accelerated growth, with domestic suppliers like Changchuan Technology and Jinhai Tong benefiting from successful customer expansion [14][22] - The storage segment has shown high revenue growth, with companies like Lanqi Technology and Demingli confirming demand recovery [14][25] 2. Foundry and Wafer Manufacturing - TSMC reported a 60.7% increase in net profit for Q2, with a revenue forecast of NT$ 933.79 billion (approximately RMB 228.03 billion) [15] - Advanced process technologies account for 74% of wafer sales, with high-performance computing contributing 60% of revenue [15] 3. Q3 Outlook - The outlook for Q3 indicates rising lead times for most categories, with significant price increases expected in the storage segment [16] - DRAM prices are anticipated to rise significantly, with Consumer DDR4 expected to increase by 40%-45% [16] 4. Recommended Stocks in the Storage Sector - Jiangbolong is highlighted as a key stock due to its dual logic of "cycle + growth," benefiting from storage price increases and domestic substitution [17] - The company is expected to see a revenue increase of 200% year-on-year in enterprise storage by Q1 2025 [17] 5. Overall Industry Trends - The design sector is driven by AIoT and automotive electronics, with companies like Rockchip and Espressif leading the charge [20] - The equipment and materials sector is benefiting from increased domestic production rates, with companies like Changchuan Technology and Dinglong making significant strides [20][22] - The storage cycle is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Demingli and Lanqi Technology experiencing substantial revenue growth [20][25]