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GB系列机柜出货预期有所上修,晶圆代工订单展望乐观 | 投研报告
Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry maintains high prosperity, with a positive outlook on opportunities in analog and storage sectors [2][3] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.11%, while the electronics sector increased by 1.65%. Among sub-industries, consumer electronics surged by 4.27%, and components fell by 1.59%. Concurrently, the Hang Seng Tech Index, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and Taiwan Information Technology Index rose by 1.17%, 2.72%, and 2.90%, respectively [2][3] Semiconductor Industry Insights - The supply chain has recently revised upward the shipment expectations for NVIDIA's GB series products for 2026, reinforcing the high growth trend in the computing chain's performance. TSMC anticipates sustained strong AI demand and a moderate recovery in non-AI demand, raising its annual revenue growth forecast from approximately 25% to 30% [2] - SMIC and Huahong's 2Q25 utilization rates are nearing saturation, with optimistic order demand outlooks supporting the continuation of high prosperity in the semiconductor sector. The utilization rates for SMIC and Huahong in 2Q25 were 92.5% (YoY +7.3 percentage points, QoQ +2.9 percentage points) and 108.3% (YoY +10.4 percentage points, QoQ +5.6 percentage points), respectively [2][3] AI and Hardware Market Dynamics - The release of GPT-5 has significantly enhanced AI programming capabilities, leading to a market shift back towards hardware investments. Companies such as Industrial Fulian, Shengyi Technology, and others are recommended as core targets in the North American computing industry chain [2][4] Storage Market Trends - The storage market is showing signs of recovery, with Kioxia reporting a 39.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in non-GAAP net profit for FY25Q1. The NAND market is expected to see a bit growth rate of around 10% in 2025, driven by normalizing inventory levels in smartphones and PCs, new smartphone releases, and strong demand from data centers [3] - Major manufacturers have announced price increases for server customers in the third quarter, with the spot market for server DDR5 prices showing an upward trend [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the consumer electronics sector include Industrial Fulian, Lens Technology, Xiaomi Group, and others. In the semiconductor sector, recommended companies include SMIC, Aojie Technology, and Huahong Semiconductor, among others [5][6]
GB系列机柜出货预期有所上修,晶圆代工订单展望乐观
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-11 14:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [1][10]. Core Views - The semiconductor sector remains highly prosperous, with positive outlooks for analog and memory ICs. The recent increase in shipments of GB series cabinets and optimistic wafer foundry order forecasts are highlighted [1]. - The demand for AI continues to drive growth in the North American computing power sector, leading to a shift of funds back to hardware [2]. - The production capacity utilization rates for SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor in Q2 2025 are reported at 92.5% and 108.3%, respectively, indicating strong demand for analog chips [3]. - The NAND market is expected to grow by approximately 10% in 2025, driven by the recovery of smartphone and PC inventories, alongside strong data center demand [4]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is experiencing high demand, particularly for analog chips, with SMIC and Hua Hong's production capacity utilization rates showing significant year-on-year increases [3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and expansion potential in the analog IC and memory module sectors [1][3]. Storage Market - The NAND market is projected to see a bit growth rate of around 10% in 2025, supported by the recovery of inventory levels in smartphones and PCs, as well as robust demand from data centers [4]. - Companies such as 德明利, 江波龙, and 兆易创新 are expected to benefit from this recovery trend [4]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies including 工业富联, 华虹半导体, and 中芯国际, highlighting their strong performance and growth potential in the current market environment [1][10]. - Specific investment targets include companies with strong earnings visibility in the North American computing power supply chain [2][10].