如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 随着人工智能（AI）浪潮席卷全球，半导体产业链成为科技角力的核心战场。然而，根据知名科 技分析网站《Stratechery》的最新报告指出，作为全球晶圆代工龙头的台积电（TSMC），目前 已成为AI 供应链中最大的「风险」来源。这项风险并非源自广受讨论的地缘政治因素，而是源 于台积电早前对市场需求的预判失准，导致未能及早扩充产能，进而造成如今严重的供应瓶颈。 分析师认为，台积电过去几年的投资不足，实际上已成为AI 建设与扩张速度的「实质煞车（de facto brake）」。 报告指出，观察当前的AI 供应链，台积电无疑占据了至关重要的地位。凭借其广泛的代工服务 以及对超大规模云端服务商基础建设的支援，台积电是这波AI 革命不可或缺的推手。由于高效 能运算订单的增长极为强劲，辉达（NVIDIA）甚至已经超越苹果（Apple），成为台积电最大 的客户，这标志着半导体市场结构的重大转变。 只是，面对台积电的供应瓶颈，业界是否会转向其他代工厂？分析师对此持保留态度，并解释了 为何在代工领域进行「多角化」对高效能运算客户而言是一步险棋。尤其是尽管英特尔晶圆代工 （Intel ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has been identified as the largest "risk" factor in the global AI supply chain due to its conservative early predictions regarding AI demand, despite its dominant position in the semiconductor foundry sector [1] Group 1: TSMC's Position and Challenges - TSMC's CEO has shown caution towards large-scale construction, leading to insufficient early investments and resulting in a severe supply shortage [2] - The impact of capacity bottlenecks has spread from chip manufacturers to downstream hyperscalers, with companies like Nvidia and AMD facing extended delivery cycles [2] - Major tech companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Meta are currently unable to secure guaranteed delivery schedules, with Microsoft's Maia 200 AI chip facing significant supply constraints [2] Group 2: Financial Implications and Production Capacity - Analysts warn that the current risks could translate into revenue losses amounting to billions of dollars for hyperscale operators [2] - In addition to wafer manufacturing, the shortage of advanced packaging capacity is another critical issue, with TSMC's CoWoS technology being the preferred solution for AI chip manufacturing [2] - TSMC plans to increase capital expenditures to $56 billion this year to alleviate pressure, but it is unlikely to meet the surging market demand in the short term [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Intel Foundry and Samsung are attempting to enter the AI chip manufacturing space, but manufacturers remain hesitant to switch from TSMC due to the irreplaceable supply chain ecosystem and trust established by TSMC [4]