证券研究报告 可选消费 2026 年中国 AWE 展观察： 拥抱 AI，智享生活 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 15 日│中国内地 动态点评 趋势一：从"工具"到"伙伴"，具身智能正重塑家电定位 以清洁电器为代表的家电，开始长出"脑子"（大模型），能理解场景与意 图；长出"感官"（视觉感知、语音交互），能感知人与环境；长出"手脚" （机械臂、仿生结构），能主动执行家庭场景中叠衣、烹饪等非结构化任务。 我们认为未来 10 年，将是机器人大规模商业化落地家庭场景的黄金时代。 石头科技旗下 G-Rover 在本次展会上首次亮相国内，产品通过搭载双机械 足实现楼梯清洁与复杂地形跨越，实现从二维地面到三维空间的清洁跨越。 科沃斯在本次展会上推出了首款搭载 OpenClaw 的家庭服务管家机器人"八 界"，不仅能识别并收纳散落杂物，还能自主完成空间分区整理与物品归位。 趋势二：AI 赋能下，传统家电焕新机，智能硬件迭代加速 随着 AI 科技进阶，传统家电的产品逻辑发生转变，从过去被动接受用户指 令，到如今开始主动观察、理解并服务用户。华为旗下 Mate TV 允许用户 通过手势将手机端内容直接投放到电视端，并通过识别家 ...

Industry Overview - The global TV industry is undergoing unprecedented adjustments, with significant market differentiation driven by large screen adoption, Mini LED technology proliferation, and AI integration [2] - Global TV shipments fell below 200 million units in 2025, marking a ten-year low, with a projected further decline of 5%-7% in 2026 [2] - China's TV market, as the largest consumer market, saw a shipment drop to 32.895 million units in 2025, a decline of 8.5%, the lowest in 16 years [2][3] Market Dynamics - The Chinese market showed a notable split in performance, with a slight increase of 1.4% in the first half of 2025 due to government subsidies, followed by a significant decline of 16.9% in the second half [2] - European markets are under pressure, with Western Europe expected to see a decline, while Eastern Europe may experience slight growth due to economic recovery [2][3] - North America remains relatively stable, supported by a solid consumer base and event marketing [2] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa still hold growth potential, but price sensitivity may limit actual volume if prices rise due to memory cost increases [3] - The Indian market, despite strong demand, is dominated by local brands using low-price strategies, posing challenges for international brands [3] Technology Trends - Mini LED technology is expected to enter a phase of widespread adoption in 2026, with RGB-Mini LED shipments projected to exceed 300,000 units, becoming a new profit driver in the high-end market [6] - In 2025, China's Mini LED TV shipments surged by 92.8%, with a penetration rate of 28.9%, and are expected to exceed 10 million units in 2026 [6][7] Competitive Landscape - Chinese brands like Hisense and TCL are leading innovations in RGB-Mini LED and SQD-Mini LED technologies, respectively, with significant growth in global shipments [6][7] - International brands such as Samsung and Sony are entering the RGB technology space, but Chinese companies maintain advantages in technology iteration and cost control [8] - The competition is shifting from price wars to a comprehensive contest of technology, supply chain, and globalization capabilities [3][8] Consumer Trends - Large screen adoption is an irreversible trend, with 75-inch and larger TVs expected to account for 23% of the Chinese market in 2025, with further growth anticipated in 2026 [9] - AI technology is redefining the role of TVs as central to living spaces, with companies like Huawei and Skyworth investing heavily in AI capabilities for their products [9] Market Share - In 2025, the top three brands—Samsung, TCL, and Hisense—held over 43% of the global market share, with Samsung leading at 35.3 million units shipped [9] - TCL's growth of 5.4% positioned it as the most significant growing brand, while Hisense maintained a strong presence with 29.3 million units shipped [9] Strategic Partnerships - Sony and TCL have signed a memorandum of understanding for strategic cooperation in the home entertainment sector, which may impact market dynamics and competition [10]

Core Insights - The global television industry is undergoing unprecedented adjustments in 2026, with significant market structural changes driven by large-screen demand, Mini LED technology proliferation, and AI integration [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Global television shipments fell below 200 million units in 2025, marking a ten-year low, with a projected further decline of 5%-7% in 2026 [2] - China's television market, as the largest consumer market, saw a shipment volume of 32.895 million units in 2025, down 8.5% year-on-year, the lowest since 2010 [2] - The first half of 2025 saw a slight increase of 1.4% in shipments due to government subsidies, but the second half experienced a significant decline of 16.9% due to policy effects waning and demand being pulled forward [4] Group 2: Regional Performance - The European market is under pressure, with Western Europe expected to decline, while Eastern Europe shows slight growth due to economic recovery [4] - North America remains relatively stable, supported by a solid consumer base and event marketing [4] - Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa still have growth potential, but rising memory chip prices may limit actual volume due to price sensitivity [4][5] Group 3: Technology and Innovation - Mini LED technology is expected to enter its popularization phase in 2026, with global shipments projected to exceed 300,000 units, becoming a new profit engine for the high-end market [7] - Chinese brands like Hisense and TCL are leading innovations in RGB-Mini LED and SQD-Mini LED technologies, with significant growth in shipments expected [7][8] - AI technology is redefining the role of televisions, with companies like Huawei and Skyworth investing heavily in AI capabilities to enhance user experience [12][13] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition is shifting from price wars to a comprehensive comparison of technology, supply chain, and globalization capabilities [5] - In 2025, the top three brands—Samsung, TCL, and Hisense—held over 43% of the global market share, with Samsung leading at 35.3 million units shipped [13] - The partnership between Sony and TCL for future strategic cooperation in home entertainment is expected to further disrupt the market dynamics [14]

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