"我认为我们极有可能走向一个令人兴奋、令人惊叹的丰饶时代。"在最新一次财报电话会上，马斯克依然像一位站在火箭发射台上的预言家，语调 高昂、充满憧憬。 未来仿佛已经近在眼前，但"地球引力"依然清晰可见。 北京时间1月29日，特斯拉发布2025年第四季度财报，将"丰饶时代"的愿景与一家汽车制造商正在承受的现实并排摊开：公司当季营收249.0亿美元， 同比减少3.1%；经营利润14.1亿美元，同比减少11%；自由现金流14.2亿美元，同比减少30%；毛利率20.1％；每股收益0.24美元，上年同期0.66美 元；第四季度调整后每股收益0.50美元，上年同期为0.73美元。 由于业绩好于预期，特斯拉盘后上涨近4%。但这份"超预期"，并未掩盖一个更具转折意义的事实——特斯拉自成立以来，年度总营收首次出现下 滑。 纵观2025全年，特斯拉总营收约948亿美元，下滑3%；净利润约38亿美元，近乎腰斩，同比暴跌46%。全球交付163.6万辆汽车，同比减少8.6%，其 中第四季度交付41.8万辆，同比减少约16%，这已是交付量连续第二年"开倒车"。 这两款车型确立了特斯拉作为主流规模化汽车制造商的地位，也为后续Model 3和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's overall performance in 2025 showed a decline in revenue and net profit, with total revenue decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year to $94.83 billion and Non-GAAP net profit down by 26.4% to $5.86 billion [4] Group 1: Automotive Business Performance - In Q4 2025, Tesla's global delivery volume decreased by 15.6% year-on-year and 15.9% quarter-on-quarter to 418,000 units, with automotive revenue declining by 10.6% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter to $17.69 billion [5] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles was approximately $41,000, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.6% [5] - The automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, improved by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year and 2.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 17.9%, primarily due to optimization in sales region structure [5] Group 2: Energy Business Performance - In Q4 2025, Tesla's energy storage installation volume increased by 29% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter to 14.2 GWh, with energy business revenue rising by 25.4% year-on-year and 12.4% quarter-on-quarter to $3.84 billion [5] - The gross margin for the energy business was 28.6%, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.8 percentage points [5] - The outlook for the energy business remains positive, driven by the launch of Megapack 3, Megablock, and the ramp-up of the Shanghai energy storage factory [5] Group 3: AI Transition and Future Outlook - Tesla is expected to focus on AI transformation across its business segments, with the rollout sequence anticipated to be Robo-series, Unsupervised FSD, and robotics [6] - The Robotaxi fleet has rapidly scaled to 500 vehicles as of January 29, 2026, with plans for the Cybercab to enter mass production in Q2 2026 [6] - The management has indicated that by the end of 2026, Robotaxi services will expand to several major cities in the U.S., supported by Tesla's comprehensive charging, service, and channel network [6]

特斯拉正在从电动车制造商向物理AI领军企业转型，但这一战略转向需要大规模资本支出。2026年特斯拉资本开支预计超过 200亿美元，远超市场此前110亿美元的预期。巨大的资本开支使得现金流恶化，影响特斯拉当下估值。 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利1月29日发布报告，将特斯拉目标价从425美元下调至415美元，维持"持股观望"评级。这一调整背 后是对特斯拉未来巨大资本开支的担忧。 摩根士丹利预计特斯拉2026年将面临高达81亿美元现金消耗，2026年调整后EBITDA预期下降5%，运营费用占销售额比例从 13%升至14.5%。 战略转型加速:从电动车到物理AI的全面布局 特斯拉CEO马斯克在财报电话会议上宣布了多项重大战略决策，最引人注目的是将在下个季度停止Model X和S的生产。 大摩指出，虽然这两款车型合计仅占2025年总销量的不到2%，但由于其更高的价格定位，对毛利润的贡献比例更大。 同时报告指出，Model X/S车型的停产虽然象征着战略转型，但可能导致产品组合恶化，因为这些高价车型贡献了更高的毛 利率。 短期内，估值扩张空间受限，但长期来看，在自动驾驶、机器人和能源领域的投资将巩固特斯拉的领导地位。 财务预 ...

Summary of Tesla Inc Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) - **Industry**: Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: $1,529,584 million - **Current Stock Price**: $431.46 (as of January 28, 2026) - **Price Target**: Lowered from $425.00 to $415.00 Key Points from the Earnings Call Strategic Transition - Tesla is transitioning from electric vehicles (EVs) to physical AI, marking a significant shift in its business model [2][10] - The company plans to wind down production of Model X and S, which together represent less than 2% of total units sold but contribute a higher percentage of gross profit [10] Financial Performance - The quarter's performance exceeded expectations due to strong operational execution despite a slowing EV demand environment [2] - Forecasted capital expenditures (capex) for 2026 are projected at $21 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates, indicating a ramp-up in investment to support growth and AI initiatives [2][11] - Operating expenses are expected to rise to 14.5% of sales in 2026, up from 13% in 2025 [2] Cash Flow and Profitability - Projected free cash flow (FCF) burn for 2026 is $8.1 billion, with expectations to moderate to $500 million in 2027 and return to FCF positive in 2028 [11] - Adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2026 have been lowered by 5% due to increased capex and operational costs [3][11] AI and Robotics Initiatives - Tesla is investing $2 billion in xAI to enhance its capabilities in managing autonomous fleets and improving efficiency across its physical AI markets [10] - The company aims to launch robotaxis in seven cities in the first half of 2026, with over 500 robotaxis already operational [10] Energy Business Outlook - The energy segment is expected to see strong growth in 2026, driven by new product launches like Megapack 3, although it may face margin compression due to higher tariffs and competition [10] Valuation Changes - The price target of $415 implies a 50x multiple on the 2030 EBITDA estimate, reflecting a cautious outlook on near-term multiple expansion due to elevated cash burn [3][21] - The valuation is broken down into components: $45/share for the core auto business, $145/share for network services, $125/share for mobility, $40/share for energy, and $60/share for humanoids [16][21] Risks and Considerations - Potential future shortages in chip and memory production could limit Tesla's growth in autonomous systems [11] - The company is exploring building its own chip fabrication facility to mitigate reliance on external suppliers [11] - The transition to physical AI and the associated capital intensity may pose risks to short-term profitability and stock performance [2][11] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment remains cautious due to the anticipated headwinds in the EV market and the significant investments required for the transition to AI [22][23] Additional Insights - Tesla's leadership in physical AI and its strategic pivot are seen as long-term growth drivers, despite short-term challenges in the automotive sector [22] - The company is expected to leverage its cost leadership in EVs to expand its user base and increase revenue from high-margin software and services [22] This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial metrics discussed during Tesla's earnings call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial performance, and market outlook.

29 January 2026 | 1:03AM EST Equity Research Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Stronger 4Q margins; Autonomy and AI in focus, especially given large increase in capex; 4Q25 wrap TSLA 12m Price Target: $405.00 Price: $431.46 Downside: 6.1% 4Q results were better than we had expected driven by higher margins. Tesla reported revenue/non-GAAP diluted EPS (excluding SBC and non-cash gains/losses from digital assets) of $24.9 bn/$0.50, which was 1% above/$0.05 above the Street (FactSet), and 1% below/$0.05 above GS. The automoti ...

Core Insights - Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings report shows a revenue of $24.901 billion, a 3% year-over-year decline, but with an EPS of $0.5 and a gross margin of 20%, both exceeding expectations [1] - The company’s energy storage business saw a significant growth, with installed capacity reaching 46.7 GWh in 2025, a 48.7% increase year-over-year, and Q4 alone contributing 14.2 GWh, marking a record high [1][4] - The Shanghai Gigafactory has become a strategic asset, delivering over 850,000 vehicles in 2025, accounting for nearly half of Tesla's global deliveries, and is now recognized as a core global export hub [1][2] Electric Vehicle Business: A "Lighthouse" Amidst Global Challenges - Tesla delivered approximately 1.636 million electric vehicles globally in 2025, facing significant challenges, particularly in the U.S. and European markets, where deliveries fell by 13.5% year-over-year in Q2 [2] - The U.S. market faced pressures from the termination of EV tax credits and increased competition, while in Europe, subsidy reductions and local competition led to a market share drop to 1.2% [2] - In contrast, the Shanghai Gigafactory performed robustly, delivering 851,000 vehicles, contributing over half of Tesla's global total, and achieving a record high of 191,700 vehicles in Q2 [2][3] Competitive Edge of Shanghai Factory - The Shanghai factory boasts over 95% localization in its supply chain and has established a highly efficient production network, producing a vehicle every 30 seconds, making it Tesla's most productive facility [3] - It has evolved into Tesla's global export center, with products shipped to Europe and Asia, achieving a record monthly export in October 2025 [3] Energy Storage Business: A Rising Growth Curve - The energy storage segment is highlighted by a 48.7% year-over-year growth, with 46.7 GWh installed in 2025, and Q4 alone contributing 14.2 GWh, marking a record for the quarter [4][6] - This growth is attributed to advancements in technology and product strategy, including the launch of the new Megapack 3 and Megablock, which significantly reduce costs and installation time [5] - A new energy storage factory in Houston is set to begin production by the end of 2026, targeting an annual capacity of 50 GWh, ensuring future growth [5] Future Outlook: Autonomous Driving and Robotics - Tesla is focusing on future innovations in autonomous driving and robotics, with the launch of Robotaxi services in Austin and plans for mass deployment by 2026 [7] - The development of the Optimus humanoid robot is also underway, with a third prototype expected in 2025 and mass production planned for 2026, showcasing Tesla's ambition in AI and robotics [7] Challenges and Strategic Path Forward - Tesla faces structural challenges due to over-reliance on the Model 3/Y, with production ramp-up of new models like Cybertruck falling short of expectations [8] - Increased competition in China from local brands is impacting market share, which has declined from a peak of 15% [8] - The company aims to stabilize its EV business through the Shanghai factory's efficiency, commercialize its energy storage solutions, and invest in autonomous driving and robotics for long-term growth [9]

Core Insights - Tesla is at a crossroads, transitioning from an electric vehicle manufacturer to a "physical AI" company, highlighted by a $2 billion investment in xAI [1][5][9] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Tesla reported total revenue of $24.901 billion, a year-over-year decline of approximately 3%, marking the first annual revenue drop in its history [1] - The automotive business revenue was $17.693 billion, down about 11% year-over-year, indicating a shrinking share of total revenue [1] - Q4 GAAP net profit fell to $840 million, a 61% drop year-over-year, while non-GAAP net profit decreased by 16% to $1.761 billion [3] - For the full year, GAAP net profit was approximately $3.8 billion, down 46% year-over-year [3] - Despite revenue pressures, Q4 GAAP gross margin improved to 20.1%, up 3.86 percentage points from the previous year, reflecting initial success in cost control [3] Sales and Deliveries - Tesla delivered 418,200 vehicles in Q4, a year-over-year decline of 15.61%, and a total of 1.636 million vehicles for the year, down 8.55% [3][4] Strategic Shift - Tesla's strategy is shifting from a hardware-centric approach to a focus on "physical AI," with 2025 identified as a critical year for this transformation [3][4] - The company will cease production of the Model S and Model X to focus on the production of Optimus robots and other future products [4] Investment in AI - The $2 billion investment in xAI is seen as a significant step towards securing a future in AI, with xAI recently completing a funding round of $20 billion [5] - Tesla's CFO indicated that capital expenditures will exceed $20 billion in 2026 to support this strategic shift [5] Cash Flow and Financial Stability - Tesla's operating cash flow for 2025 was $14.7 billion, with free cash flow at $6.2 billion, providing strong support for the transition [6] - By the end of 2025, Tesla increased its cash and investments by $7.5 billion to a total of $44.1 billion, ensuring ample liquidity for future plans [7] Future Challenges - Market analysis indicates that Tesla's pre-tax profit margin for 2025 is projected at 6%, significantly lower than Toyota's [8] - The company faces pressure on profit margins from tariffs, competition from cheaper models, and policy changes, particularly in key markets like China [8] - Despite challenges, Tesla's long-term vision includes expanding its autonomous taxi service, which could significantly alter its profit model and valuation [8][9]

当地时间1月28日，特斯拉对外发布2025年第四季度以及2025年全年财报。财报显示，第四季度，特斯拉营收为249.0亿美元，同比下滑3.1%；经营利润为 14.1亿美元，同比下滑11%；自由现金流14.2亿美元，同比下滑30%。2025年全年，特斯拉总营收为948亿美元，较同期的977亿美元下滑3%，为特斯拉有 史以来首次出现年度营收下滑的情况。此外，财报显示，2025年特斯拉营运现金流为147亿美元；自由现金流为62亿美元；现金和投资增加了75亿美元至 441亿美元。 2025年全年特斯拉营收出现下滑的原因之一是新车交付量减少。官方数据显示，2025年全年，特斯拉全球累计交付163.61万辆新车，较2024年的178.9万辆 下滑幅度达8.6%，低于市场预期的165万辆。这也是继2024年同比下滑1%至178.9万辆之后，特斯拉连续第二年销量出现下滑。 对于此次马斯克决定停产Model S和Model X两款车型，马斯克表示，2026年资本支出将"非常大"。Model S和Model X两款车型停产后，加州弗里蒙特工 厂的Model S和Model X生产线将替换为Optimus生产线，并实现年产百万台机 ...

硬·AI 作者 | 李 丹 编辑 | 硬 AI 特斯拉四季度营收由三季度的两位数同比大增转为下滑，电动车交付量连续第二年下滑，成为营收与汽车毛利承压的主要原因，但EPS盈利高于预期，能源与 服务业务继续放量，披露投资xAI、无人驾驶出租车Robotaxi等"物理 AI"相关业务的进展。 盘后公布财报后，股价盘后跳涨，盘后涨幅曾超过4%。盘后上涨更像是源于特斯拉短期的业绩并没有太差，长期的叙事——Robotaxi/Optimus/xAI方面继续给 估值提供想象空间。业绩电话会上，特斯拉高管称2026年全年资本支出将超过200亿美元。此后股价曾回吐盘后多数涨幅。 汽车业务拖累特斯拉四季度的总营收由增转降，但储能部署装机量创纪录，应被市场视为短期内对冲汽车端下行的"硬支撑"。更重要的是，特斯拉强调"物理 AI"的进展与AI领域相关投资。 Q4特斯拉营收同比由增转降3%、略低于预期、首次年度营收下滑，当季EPS盈利降17%仍强于预期，毛利率升破20%，储能部署增29%至新高14.2GWh；1月开始在奥斯汀限量提 供无安全监督员的Robotaxi；Cybercab、Semi卡车、储能系统Megapack 3均按计划今年 ...

28 January 2026 | 5:27PM EST Equity Research Tesla Inc. (TSLA): 4Q25 First Take Results Tesla reported 4Q25 revenue of $24,901 mn (down 11% qoq and down 3% yoy) which was 1% below GS at $25,060 mn, 1% above the Street (FactSet) at 24,740 mn, and 2% above company compiled consensus at $24,493. Tesla reported the following by segment: n Automotive revenue of $17,693 mn (down 17% qoq and down 11% yoy) compared to GS at $17,436 mn, company compiled consensus at $17,292 mn, and the Street at $17,850 mn. Implied ...