2026 年 02 月 02 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 特斯拉举行 2025Q4 业绩财报会，比亚迪天神之眼 5.0 辅助驾驶发布 ——汽车行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2026/01/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | | -0.1% | 1.2% | 23.5% | | 沪深 | 300 | 1.2% | -0.1% | 23.3% | 相关报告 《超豪市场自主替代空间大，尊界放量有望助力江 淮盈利改善——汽车行业深度报告（推荐）*乘用 车*戴畅》——2026-01-30 《汽车行业周报：吉利集团 2030 年目标销量突破 650 万辆，特斯拉 Cybercab 无人驾驶出租车将于 4 月投产（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》——2026-01-25 《汽车行业周报：中欧电车价格承诺机制落地，多 地开放 2026 年汽车补贴，长城发布"归元"平台 （推荐）*汽车*戴畅，徐鸣爽 ...

随着2025年度财报的亮相，特斯拉（TSLA.US）当前以及未来的业务发展重点再次受到外界关注。 21世纪经济报道记者曹恩惠 在财报电话会议上，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克表示，随着人工智能和机器人技术的发展，未来将 实现"全人类高收入，富足非凡"，而非"基本收入"。在实现这一目标的过程中，特斯拉将持续提高出行 和人工智能相关产品的安全性、降低商品成本，让人们无妥协地获得所需物品，同时保障优美的自然环 境。 这一观点被外界解读为，特斯拉正在向外界更新战略方向，即强调其未来将不再是一家汽车制造商，而 是全面转型自动驾驶、机器人以及能源业务。对此，马斯克在电话会上表示，特斯拉已经重新修订使 命，目标是"建设一个富足非凡的世界"。 根据特斯拉电话会上的信息，该公司未来将以人工智能和机器人为核心，并非追求更大的汽车销售规 模。而为了推动这一转型，特斯拉推出了远高于市场预期的投资力度——其2026年预计资本开支将超过 200亿美元，包括将弗里蒙特工厂的Model S/X生产线将改为人形机器人产线，预计2026年底前启动量 产，最终规划年产能为100万台；在得州超级工厂打造Cortex 2算力集群，进一步提升人工智能训练 ...

特斯拉正在从电动车制造商向物理AI领军企业转型，但这一战略转向需要大规模资本支出。2026年特斯拉资本开支预计超过 200亿美元，远超市场此前110亿美元的预期。巨大的资本开支使得现金流恶化，影响特斯拉当下估值。 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利1月29日发布报告，将特斯拉目标价从425美元下调至415美元，维持"持股观望"评级。这一调整背 后是对特斯拉未来巨大资本开支的担忧。 摩根士丹利预计特斯拉2026年将面临高达81亿美元现金消耗，2026年调整后EBITDA预期下降5%，运营费用占销售额比例从 13%升至14.5%。 战略转型加速:从电动车到物理AI的全面布局 特斯拉CEO马斯克在财报电话会议上宣布了多项重大战略决策，最引人注目的是将在下个季度停止Model X和S的生产。 大摩指出，虽然这两款车型合计仅占2025年总销量的不到2%，但由于其更高的价格定位，对毛利润的贡献比例更大。 同时报告指出，Model X/S车型的停产虽然象征着战略转型，但可能导致产品组合恶化，因为这些高价车型贡献了更高的毛 利率。 短期内，估值扩张空间受限，但长期来看，在自动驾驶、机器人和能源领域的投资将巩固特斯拉的领导地位。 财务预 ...

January 29, 2026 06:04 AM GMT Tesla Inc | North America Exit Model X/S, Enter Robots: PT to $415 | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) | From | To | | Price Target | $425.00 | $415.00 | The wind down of Model X/S is symbolic of TSLA's journey into physical AI. At the same time, it is materially ramping spend, yielding $8bn in cash burn in 2026 (MSe). While this may become an overhang on the stock, the investment is needed to cement TSLA's leadership in AV, robotics and energy. Our ...

Core Insights - Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings report shows a revenue of $24.901 billion, a 3% year-over-year decline, but with an EPS of $0.5 and a gross margin of 20%, both exceeding expectations [1] - The company’s energy storage business saw a significant growth, with installed capacity reaching 46.7 GWh in 2025, a 48.7% increase year-over-year, and Q4 alone contributing 14.2 GWh, marking a record high [1][4] - The Shanghai Gigafactory has become a strategic asset, delivering over 850,000 vehicles in 2025, accounting for nearly half of Tesla's global deliveries, and is now recognized as a core global export hub [1][2] Electric Vehicle Business: A "Lighthouse" Amidst Global Challenges - Tesla delivered approximately 1.636 million electric vehicles globally in 2025, facing significant challenges, particularly in the U.S. and European markets, where deliveries fell by 13.5% year-over-year in Q2 [2] - The U.S. market faced pressures from the termination of EV tax credits and increased competition, while in Europe, subsidy reductions and local competition led to a market share drop to 1.2% [2] - In contrast, the Shanghai Gigafactory performed robustly, delivering 851,000 vehicles, contributing over half of Tesla's global total, and achieving a record high of 191,700 vehicles in Q2 [2][3] Competitive Edge of Shanghai Factory - The Shanghai factory boasts over 95% localization in its supply chain and has established a highly efficient production network, producing a vehicle every 30 seconds, making it Tesla's most productive facility [3] - It has evolved into Tesla's global export center, with products shipped to Europe and Asia, achieving a record monthly export in October 2025 [3] Energy Storage Business: A Rising Growth Curve - The energy storage segment is highlighted by a 48.7% year-over-year growth, with 46.7 GWh installed in 2025, and Q4 alone contributing 14.2 GWh, marking a record for the quarter [4][6] - This growth is attributed to advancements in technology and product strategy, including the launch of the new Megapack 3 and Megablock, which significantly reduce costs and installation time [5] - A new energy storage factory in Houston is set to begin production by the end of 2026, targeting an annual capacity of 50 GWh, ensuring future growth [5] Future Outlook: Autonomous Driving and Robotics - Tesla is focusing on future innovations in autonomous driving and robotics, with the launch of Robotaxi services in Austin and plans for mass deployment by 2026 [7] - The development of the Optimus humanoid robot is also underway, with a third prototype expected in 2025 and mass production planned for 2026, showcasing Tesla's ambition in AI and robotics [7] Challenges and Strategic Path Forward - Tesla faces structural challenges due to over-reliance on the Model 3/Y, with production ramp-up of new models like Cybertruck falling short of expectations [8] - Increased competition in China from local brands is impacting market share, which has declined from a peak of 15% [8] - The company aims to stabilize its EV business through the Shanghai factory's efficiency, commercialize its energy storage solutions, and invest in autonomous driving and robotics for long-term growth [9]

Elon Musk announced his new company xAI which he says has the goal to understand the true nature of the universe.Tesla sold $430 million worth of its giant backup batteries called Megapacks to xAI, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence startup, in 2025, according to a filing on Thursday. The sales to xAI accounted for around 3.4% of Tesla's energy business revenue, which climbed 27% to $12.8 billion last year from $10.1 billion in 2024, the filing said. Tesla's energy division, which sells solar photovoltaics ...

Production - The S/X production line will cease next quarter, with the Fremont factory being converted to produce 1 million Optimus robots annually [1] - Future vehicle models will be designed for full autonomy, eliminating steering wheels and pedals [1] FSD and Robotaxi - Tesla has launched a paid, driverless Robotaxi service in Austin, with over 500 operational vehicles in the Bay Area and Austin, experiencing exponential monthly growth [1][32] - FSD coverage is expected to reach 25-50% of the U.S. by year-end, pending regulatory approval [1][31] - Nearly 1.1 million FSD users exist, with 70% opting for a one-time purchase; the transition to a subscription model will impact automotive gross margins in the short term [1][12] Chips - Elon Musk is dedicating significant time to the AI5 chip, which is currently a core bottleneck for Tesla; the AI6 chip is expected to launch within a year [1][33] - The company plans to build its own TerraFab facility to mitigate geopolitical risks associated with chip production [1][33] Optimus - Optimus 3 will be released in a few months, showcasing advanced capabilities such as learning new tasks through observation, voice, and video [1][28] - Production of Optimus robots will begin this year, with significant output expected by year-end [1][11] Energy Storage - Tesla plans to launch Megapack 3 and Megablock by 2026, anticipating continued global deployment growth [2] - The company is significantly increasing capital expenditures, projected to exceed $20 billion for six major factories and AI capabilities [2][19] Financial Overview - Tesla's cash and investments exceed $44 billion, with plans to utilize internal funds initially [2][20] - The company aims for a record annual revenue of $12.8 billion from energy storage by 2025, reflecting a 26.6% year-over-year increase [11][13] Market Competition - China is identified as a strong competitor in manufacturing and AI, often underestimated by external observers [3][40] Company Mission - Tesla's mission has been updated to "Amazing Abundance," reflecting optimism for a future of universal high income rather than basic income [4][5] - The company aims to enhance safety and reduce costs while ensuring environmental protection and access to quality healthcare [5]

Core Insights - Tesla's Q4 earnings report showed an EPS of $0.50, beating Wall Street estimates of $0.45 by 11%, but down 32% year-over-year. Revenue was $24.901 billion, slightly above the expected $24.78 billion, but down 3% year-over-year. Operating income for Q4 was $1.41 billion, exceeding the estimate of $1.32 billion [1][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla's Q4 vehicle deliveries dropped 15.6%, reflecting a slowdown in the legacy EV business due to the loss of federal tax credits. Despite this, margins increased by 4%, indicating a positive sign for the company [1] - Tesla Energy achieved a record gross profit of $1.1 billion, marking its fifth consecutive record quarter, driven by high demand for large-scale battery energy storage systems [3][12] Group 2: Strategic Investments - Tesla plans to invest $2 billion in xAI to integrate AI into physical applications, capitalizing on the rapid growth of xAI, which reached a valuation of approximately $230 billion following a successful Series E funding round [2][5] - The investment in xAI is expected to create synergies between Tesla and xAI, enhancing Tesla's capabilities in the AI sector [2] Group 3: Future Growth Initiatives - Tesla confirmed the production timeline for the Optimus Humanoid robot and is ramping up production for the Tesla Semi and Cybercab, with preparations ongoing for a launch in the first half of 2026 [7][8] - The company is expanding its robotaxi fleet, which has driven 650,000 miles since June 2025, and plans to enter seven additional markets in the first half of 2026 [9][10] Group 4: Market Positioning - Investors are shifting focus from Tesla's slowing legacy EV business to emerging sectors such as physical AI, energy, and a broad ecosystem of products, similar to Apple's strategy with its devices and services [12][13] - Tesla's strong cash reserve of over $40 billion provides a solid foundation to support its transition and upcoming product launches [16][17]

相关标的：特斯拉（TSLA.US），宁德时代（300750.SZ），比亚迪（002594.SZ），阳光电源（300274.SZ），海 博思创（688411.SH），亿纬锂能（300014.SZ），中创新航（3931.HK），国轩高科（002074.SZ），欣旺达 （300207.SZ） 以下为访谈专家根据市场公开信息的个人观点及推断 1.特斯拉在储能业务方面的最新进展如何？ 特斯拉在储能业务方面取得了显著进展。2025 年，公司储能业务的出货量同比增长50%。2026 年的装机量目标基 于现有订单和新增订单的综合评估。 相关标的：特斯拉（TSLA.US），宁德时代（300750.SZ），比亚迪（002594.SZ），阳光电源（300274.SZ），海 博思创（688411.SH），亿纬锂能（300014.SZ），中创新航（3931.HK），国轩高科（002074.SZ），欣旺达 （300207.SZ） 以下为访谈专家根据市场公开信息的个人观点及推断 1.特斯拉在储能业务方面的最新进展如何？ 特斯拉在储能业务方面取得了显著进展。2025 年，公司储能业务的出货量同比增长50%。2026 年的装机量目标基 于现有 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights significant advancements in the energy storage sector, including the launch of the world's first Tesla Megablock technology storage project with a capacity of 866MWh in South Australia [3][5] - The project is part of the Neoen Goyder Renewable Energy Zone, which includes existing and planned wind and solar facilities, aiming to become Australia's largest hybrid wind-solar-storage project with a potential expansion capacity of 900MW/3600MWh [3][5] - Additionally, the article mentions that Sungrow Electric has successfully delivered 576MW of energy storage inverters to the Khavda energy base in India, marking a significant breakthrough in the Indian energy storage market [6][8] Group 2 - Furthermore, Oriental Sunrise has secured a total of 80MWh of commercial storage orders from two companies, focusing on household and commercial energy storage solutions [9][11] - The collaboration with Wuhan Yuehong involves the signing of 150 units of integrated commercial storage systems, totaling approximately 40MWh, leveraging the company's market advantages [11][13] - The partnership with Hefei Rongkun also involves a 40MWh commercial storage project, reinforcing the companies' presence in the Anhui region's commercial energy storage market [13]