从台积电上修指引：看 AI 算力需求趋势 20250718 摘要 台积电 2025 年第二季度财报超出预期，美元计价收入同比增长 17.8% 至 300.7 亿美元，毛利率达 58.6%，主要受益于 N3 制程平台放量和 N7 节点稼动率提升。未来业绩可能继续上修，因先进制程供不应求及潜 在涨价空间。 英伟达芯片的良率和新系列系统稳定性是影响 AI 算力需求的关键因素， 在供不应求的情况下，这些因素可能导致英伟达利润率提升，进而影响 整体市场规模。研究 AI 算力市场应聚焦大模型和应用变化，而非仅跟踪 产量数据。 台积电 N5 节点需求紧张，推动 N7 产能转移，提升了第二季度毛利率。 公司上调 2025 年全年收入指引至 30%，资本开支预期维持在 380 亿 至 420 亿美元。第三季度营收指引为 318 亿至 330 亿美元，毛利率维 持在 55.5%至 57.5%区间。 台积电预计第三季度毛利率受海外建厂进度加速和新台币升值影响，但 产品结构优化和先进制程提价可部分抵消负面影响。非 AI 领域市场需求 持续好转，工业及汽车领域逐步修复，而 AI 领域数据中心及 AI 加速器 需求持续旺盛。 Q&A 2 ...

Summary of TSMC Q2 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - **Quarter**: Q2 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - TSMC's Q2 revenue increased by 39% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations, driven by strong demand for N3 nodes and related derivatives, as well as the recovery of NVIDIA's H20 supply and easing geopolitical tensions [2][4] - AI-related demand remains robust, while traditional consumer electronics demand is recovering slowly, with large design firms still in inventory reduction mode [2][9] - TSMC anticipates that AI-related high-performance chips will become a major growth driver, potentially accounting for 45% of the semiconductor market by 2030, equating to $450 billion [2][10] Financial Performance - TSMC reported Q2 revenue of NT$263.7 billion, a 27% year-over-year increase, with total Q2 revenue reaching NT$933.8 billion, a 39% year-over-year increase [4][5] - Despite negative impacts on gross margin from overseas factory ramp-up and currency appreciation, urgent order premiums helped offset some of these effects, with Q2 gross margin nearing the lower guidance limit of 57% [2][7] Future Outlook - TSMC maintains a full-year revenue growth guidance of 25%, with potential for upward revision due to strong N3 node demand and upcoming N2 node production [2][8] - The company is preparing for N2 node mass production, expected to contribute additional revenue starting in 2026 [2][12] Technological Advancements - TSMC has made significant progress with three key developments in Q2: exceeding demand expectations for N3 nodes, preparing for N2 node mass production, and launching the next-generation N14 node [2][12] - The first generation of N2 products will primarily target mobile chip markets, with Apple being the first adopter, followed by Qualcomm and MediaTek [2][14] Pricing Strategy - TSMC plans to increase prices for new process nodes and products to mitigate the impact of North American factory construction and currency fluctuations, with further price adjustments expected in early 2026 [3][18] - The company expects that the price increases will positively impact revenue and gross margin, particularly as the N2 node ramps up production [17][20] Regional Insights - TSMC's revenue growth potential in China is primarily driven by increased AI computing demand, with NVIDIA's supply recovery indicating a loosening of supply constraints in the Chinese market [2][11] Stock Performance and Valuation - TSMC's stock price has rebounded since April, reflecting improved market expectations for computing power, with a current valuation of 5.3 times forward earnings, still considered undervalued compared to peers [21][22] AI Supply and Demand - The global AI computing supply-demand situation is critical, with TSMC being a key player in the supply chain for both ASIC chip inference and NVIDIA's training and inference needs [23] Additional Insights - The anticipated growth in AI-related chips and the strategic pricing adjustments are expected to enhance TSMC's market position and financial performance in the coming years [2][10][18]