Core Viewpoint - Suplay, a card company, has filed for an IPO in Hong Kong, attracting attention due to its high-priced card offerings and backing from notable investors like MiHoYo and Sequoia. The company targets adult collectors rather than children, positioning itself as a luxury brand in the card market [1][3]. Financial Performance - Founded in 2021, Suplay transitioned to card production in 2023, achieving significant sales with 1.56 million cards sold and revenues of 146.3 million RMB in 2023. Projections indicate revenues of 281 million RMB in 2024 and 283 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, with adjusted net profits increasing from 15.97 million RMB in 2023 to 86.42 million RMB in 2025 [3][4][5]. Market Positioning - Suplay's average card price increased from 31 RMB to 43 RMB, with sales volume more than doubling. Its gross margin of 69.5% is competitive with industry leader Card Game, which has a margin of 71.3% [6][10]. - The company primarily targets adult collectors, contrasting with traditional children's card games, and has adopted strategies from established brands like Panini and Topps [7][9]. Product Strategy - Suplay has secured a significant IP license for Disney's 100th anniversary, marking a first for a Chinese brand. This license is crucial as it enhances the perceived value of their cards, which are designed to be collectible and aesthetically appealing [18][20]. - The company employs various production techniques to enhance card quality, including metallic coatings and intricate designs, making their products competitive in the luxury segment [22][25]. Challenges and Risks - Despite its growth, Suplay's revenue is only about 3% of Card Game's 10.057 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a small market share. The company relies heavily on IP licensing, which constitutes 95% of its revenue, making it vulnerable to changes in IP agreements [34][35]. - The company faces a dilemma between maintaining card scarcity to preserve value and the need for continuous product releases to drive growth. This balance is critical for sustaining player interest and market value [39][42].

Core Insights - The trading card game (TCG) market is experiencing rapid global growth, with China's market expected to reach 26.3 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outpacing global growth rates [1][3] - The global TCG market is projected to grow from 14.95 billion USD in 2024 to 57.08 billion USD by 2033, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [2] Industry Overview - China's TCG market is currently the largest globally, with a market size of 26.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 110.4% [3] - The market is expected to reach 44.6 billion yuan by 2029, driven by rising disposable income and a growing consumer base of over 503 million people interested in IP-related products [3] Key Drivers - The TCG market's growth is fueled by both demand and supply dynamics, with increasing consumer willingness to spend on emotional value associated with IPs and a burgeoning domestic IP ecosystem [3] - The TCG industry chain in China is maturing, with active secondary market transactions stimulating further expansion in the primary market [3] Core Elements of TCG - TCGs are characterized by low prices, high premiums, and high repurchase rates, with unique gameplay mechanics enhancing consumer engagement [4] - Successful IPs in the TCG space often possess cultural significance, emotional value, and strong fan engagement, which are critical for market success [4] Investment Opportunities - Companies with rich IP reserves and significant channel advantages are recommended for investment, including: - Card Game: A leading player in the entertainment sector with a strong market share and a diverse IP matrix [5] - Yaoji Technology: Engaged in trading platforms and card production, with potential for growth in card distribution [5] - Aofei Entertainment: Known for its popular IPs, which can drive the success of card products [5] - Huali Technology: Benefiting from the TCG industry chain through sales of related equipment and IP cards [5]