Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the collectible card game (CCG) sector within China's pan-entertainment industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% over the past five years, positioning it as a significant category alongside other products like "Baji" [1][2] - The CCG market in China is still in its early development stage, indicating substantial potential for future growth, especially when compared to more mature markets like Japan and the United States [2][4] - The CCG's low price point and high purchase frequency make it particularly appealing to younger consumers, enhancing its market attractiveness [4] Group 2 - The company has established a competitive edge through multiple advantages, including ownership of popular IPs such as Ultraman and My Little Pony, and a diverse product matrix that includes collectible cards, figurines, and stationery [3] - The company has a well-developed sales network and high coverage of offline distribution channels, facilitating product accessibility to consumers [3] - Continuous innovation in gameplay design and community engagement strategies are being implemented to enhance product flow and player activity [3] Group 3 - The company aims to maintain its advantages while exploring new growth drivers, focusing on collaborations with entertainment content producers to secure diverse IP licenses and expand product categories [4] - In addition to collectible TCGs, the company is targeting the competitive TCG segment to meet consumer entertainment and social needs, enhancing gameplay fun and competitiveness [4] - The company plans to leverage its domestic experience and established international brand presence to gradually expand its brand overseas, creating a secondary growth curve [4]

Core Insights - The global潮玩 (trendy toys) market is experiencing significant growth, driven by the Z generation's shift towards personalized consumption and the rise of social media as a marketing tool [2][5][20] - Chinese brands are leveraging their robust supply chain, original design capabilities, and cultural adaptability to become key players in the global潮玩 market [3][4][5] Market Overview - The潮玩 market is evolving from a niche segment to a mainstream cultural consumption phenomenon, with a projected market size of $41.8 billion by 2024, up from $8.7 billion in 2015 [20][21] - The blind box segment is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% from 2024 to 2031, with online sales increasing from 7% in 2015 to 32.2% in 2022 in China [2][20] Consumer Insights - The unique appeal of潮玩 lies in its emotional, social, and collectible value, allowing consumers to express individuality and build social connections [1][14][15] - The healing economy is driving adult emotional consumption, with the global healing economy market expected to grow from $5.61 billion in 2022 to $8.47 billion by 2027 [18][19] Competitive Landscape - Leading brands like泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) have successfully entered international markets, focusing on brand and cultural integration through social media and local partnerships [4][5] - The card game segment, particularly through collaborations with popular IPs, has shown strong profitability, with a gross margin of 71.3% in 2024 [4] Strategic Recommendations - Brands should focus on localized and refined operations, understanding regional consumer preferences and leveraging social media for marketing [5] - The integration of online and offline channels is crucial for enhancing brand loyalty and expanding market reach, especially in categories like plush toys where offline sales are significant [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese pan-entertainment industry is rapidly expanding, with collectible card games (CCGs) experiencing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% in the past five years, establishing themselves as a significant category within the market [1][2] - Card games dominate the collectible card market in China, facing competition from brands like Jiekas, Shanhun, and Hitcard, while the competitive card game segment remains in its early stages [2][3] - The potential for growth in per capita spending on collectible cards in China is substantial compared to more mature markets like Japan and the United States [2] Industry Overview - The collectible card game sector is characterized by high growth and significant potential within the broader pan-entertainment category [2] - The market is still in its early development phase, with a focus on collectible trading card games (TCGs) primarily driven by foreign brands like Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh [2] - As the industry matures, there will be closer ties between card games and intellectual property (IP) producers, with TCGs likely to expand through mobile gaming [2] Company Profile: KAYOU - KAYOU, established in 2011, began its card business in 2018 and has a concentrated ownership structure, with founders holding 83.5% of shares prior to listing [3] - The company is projected to grow its revenue from 4.131 billion yuan to 10.057 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing a CAGR of 56.03%, while adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 1.620 billion yuan to 4.466 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 66.05% [3] Competitive Advantages - KAYOU benefits from multiple strengths, including a diverse portfolio of popular IPs such as Ultraman and My Little Pony, and a strong offline distribution network [4] - The company focuses on innovative gameplay design and community engagement to enhance product flow and player activity [4] - KAYOU is expanding its production capacity to respond flexibly to market changes [4] Growth Drivers - The pan-entertainment industry is thriving, and collectible card games are still in the early stages of development, presenting significant growth opportunities [5] - KAYOU aims to maintain its advantage by collaborating closely with content producers to secure diverse IP licenses and expand product categories [5] - The company is also targeting the competitive TCG segment to meet consumer entertainment and social needs, fostering an active player community [5] - KAYOU plans to leverage its domestic experience and international brand recognition to gradually expand its brand presence overseas [5] Investment Recommendation - Attention is recommended for KAYOU, as the company continues to expand its IP matrix and diversify its product offerings, with scale effects and self-built production lines expected to enhance profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the card industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The card industry is characterized by high growth and significant potential within the broader entertainment sector, with collectible card games (CCGs) experiencing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% over the past five years [5]. - The leading company in the collectible card market, Card Game Co., has shown impressive revenue growth, with projected revenues increasing from 4.131 billion yuan in 2022 to 10.057 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 56.03% [5][6]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that while Card Game Co. dominates the market, there is increasing competition from brands like Collect Card Society and Flash Soul [5][6]. Industry Analysis - The collectible card market in China is still in its early stages compared to more mature markets like Japan and the United States, suggesting substantial room for growth in per capita spending [39]. - The overall market for collectible cards in China is projected to grow from 2.8 billion yuan in 2019 to 26.3 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 56.6% [20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of intellectual property (IP) partnerships, as Card Game Co. has secured licenses for popular franchises such as Ultraman and My Little Pony, enhancing its product offerings [43]. Company Overview - Card Game Co. has established itself as a leader in the collectible card market, with a strong focus on expanding its IP and product matrix, currently holding 69 licensed IPs and one proprietary IP [43]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding 83.5% of the shares, which allows for strategic decision-making aligned with long-term growth objectives [45]. - Financially, Card Game Co. has demonstrated robust performance, with revenues increasing significantly and adjusted net profits projected to rise from 1.62 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.466 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 66.05% [51]. Competitive Advantages - The report identifies several competitive advantages for Card Game Co., including a diverse IP portfolio, strong distribution channels, and innovative gameplay design that enhances consumer engagement [6][7]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for collectible cards, particularly among younger consumers who favor low-priced, high-frequency purchases [7]. - Card Game Co. is also exploring international markets, aiming to leverage its established brand and product offerings to create a second growth curve [7]. Growth Outlook - The report suggests that the collectible card industry is poised for continued expansion, driven by collaborations with content creators and a focus on enhancing the entertainment and social aspects of competitive trading card games (TCGs) [7]. - The potential for growth in the collectible card segment is further supported by the increasing popularity of mobile gaming, which may help broaden the audience for card games [5][6].

Core Insights - The潮玩 industry is witnessing a collective move towards IPOs, driven by internal and external pressures, marking a significant shift in the industry landscape [4][10][12] - The潮玩 market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected total value of 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting an annual growth rate of over 20% [2] Group 1: Reasons for the IPO Rush - The潮玩 industry is facing a transformation due to changes in market dynamics, regulatory environments, and the need for companies to adapt to a more rational consumer base [4][5] - The era of relying solely on a few popular IPs and blind box strategies is over, as market saturation has led to diminished consumer excitement [5][6] - Companies are now competing on three fronts: IP reserves, channel penetration, and user engagement, which are essential for sustainable growth [6][7] Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - The investment landscape for潮玩 has evolved, with 2018 marking a peak in VC/PE investment, and the current period being a critical exit window for investors [7][9] - The success of companies like泡泡玛特 has increased investor understanding and acceptance of潮玩, leading to favorable conditions for IPOs [8][9] Group 3: Different Business Models - TOP TOY represents a "channel-driven" model, leveraging a vast distribution network but lacking unique IP development, with over 52.8% of its revenue coming from external IPs [14][15] - 卡游 and Hitcard exemplify an "ecosystem-driven" approach, focusing on collectible card games that foster a strong user community, but face risks related to dependency on a young audience [15][16] - 泡泡玛特 follows an "IP-driven" model, achieving 99.1% of its revenue from proprietary products, but must continuously innovate to maintain consumer interest in its IPs [16][18] Group 4: Industry Challenges and Future Directions - Domestic潮玩 companies lag behind international giants like三丽鸥 and迪士尼 in building a comprehensive IP ecosystem, often relying on short-term strategies [20][21] - Key shortcomings include a lack of long-term IP management, shallow user connections, and ineffective international expansion strategies [22][23][24] - To succeed,潮玩 companies must transition from product suppliers to emotional service providers, focusing on IP co-creation, cross-media storytelling, and compliance-driven innovation [25][26]

Core Insights - The collectible card market in China is entering a monetization phase, with companies like Hitcard and the industry leader, Kayo, pursuing IPOs [1][4] - Hitcard, founded in 2021, focuses on adult collectible cards and has secured significant investments from various entities, including a 10% stake from Reading Group [1][3] - The company has seen substantial revenue growth, achieving approximately 400 million RMB in revenue last year, with a projected 100% growth this year [3][4] Company Overview - Hitcard specializes in adult collectible cards and has developed partnerships with popular IPs, including anime and film franchises [3] - The company has launched successful products, such as the "Celebration Year" card series, which generated a GMV of 20 million RMB [3] - Hitcard's flagship store on Taobao features a card from the drama "Hush, the King is Hibernating," which has sold over 7,000 units, outperforming many well-known anime IPs [3] Market Analysis - The collectible card market in China is dominated by a few major players, with Kayo holding a 71.1% market share and generating 10.057 billion RMB in revenue [4] - The market is still in need of regulatory improvements, which may delay IPOs for companies like Kayo and Hitcard [4] - Compared to developed countries, China's per capita spending on collectible cards is significantly lower, indicating substantial growth potential in the coming years [4] - The collectible card market in China is projected to reach 44.6 billion RMB by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.1% from 2024 to 2029 [4]

Core Insights - The collectible card market is entering a "monetization era" with companies like Hitcard and the industry leader, Kayo, pursuing IPOs [1][4] - Hitcard, founded in 2021, focuses on adult collectible cards and has secured significant funding from various investors, including major players like Reading Group and CyberAgent [1][3] - The company has achieved approximately 400 million RMB in revenue last year, with a projected 100% year-on-year growth this year, and has already reached profitability [3][4] Company Overview - Hitcard is a brand under Shanghai Qixing Network Technology Co., Ltd., specializing in collectible cards for adults [1] - The company has developed partnerships with popular IPs, including anime and film franchises, enhancing its product offerings [3] - Hitcard's collaboration with Reading Group allows access to over 1,000 IPs and offline channel resources [1] Market Dynamics - The collectible card market in China is still developing, with significant growth potential compared to developed countries [4] - In 2024, the top five companies in the collectible card industry will hold 82.4% of the market share, with Kayo leading at 71.1% [4] - The market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11.1%, reaching 44.6 billion RMB by 2029 [4]

Group 1 - Hitcard, a card company established only four years ago, is advancing its IPO process, indicating the collectible card market is entering a "monetization era" [1] - According to Huaxi Securities Research Institute, the top five companies in China's collectible card industry will account for 82.4% of the total market share by 2024 [1] - Card Game holds the largest market share at 71.1%, with projected revenue of 10.057 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 4.466 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing Pop Mart's 3.403 billion yuan during the same period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The collectible card market in China is entering a monetization phase, with companies like Hitcard and established players like 卡游 (Kaworld) pushing for IPOs and significant growth in revenue and market presence [1][3]. Company Overview - Hitcard, founded in 2021, focuses on adult collectible cards and has received multiple rounds of funding from notable investors including 泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart), 红杉中国 (Sequoia China), and 阅文集团 (Yuewen Group) [1]. - After a significant investment from Yuewen Group, Hitcard has access to over 1,000 IPs and offline channel resources, enhancing its market position [1]. - In 2024, Hitcard's collaboration on the 《庆余年》 card series generated a GMV of 20 million RMB [2]. Financial Performance - Hitcard achieved approximately 400 million RMB in revenue last year, marking a year-on-year growth of over 600%, with expectations for another 100% growth this year [2]. - The company has already reached profitability, indicating a strong business model and market demand [2]. Market Comparison - Despite Hitcard's growth, it still lags behind the market leader, 卡游, which holds a 71.1% market share and reported revenues of 10.057 billion RMB in 2024 [3]. - The top five companies in the collectible card market account for 82.4% of the total market share, highlighting the competitive landscape [3]. Market Potential - Current spending on collectible cards in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, with per capita spending at 18.7 RMB compared to 119.3 RMB in Japan and 64.0 RMB in the U.S., suggesting substantial growth potential [3]. - The Chinese collectible card market is projected to reach 44.6 billion RMB by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.1% from 2024 to 2029, indicating a sustained high demand [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the card industry as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The card industry is identified as a "lightweight" growth engine within the global entertainment and cultural sector, integrating entertainment, collection, and culture [3][7] - The unique value logic of trading card games (TCGs) is based on their tactical value and scarcity, distinguishing them from ordinary cards [3][8] - The Chinese trading card market has rapidly grown, becoming the largest globally, with a market size projected to reach RMB 263 billion by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 56.6% from 2019 [42][77] Summary by Sections 1. Card Industry Overview - Cards are categorized into game cards and collectible cards, with trading cards being a significant focus due to their strategic gameplay and community engagement [7][9] - Trading cards combine rule-based gameplay, cultural content, social attributes, and collectible aspects, creating a high-engagement player ecosystem [3][8] 2. Market Dynamics - The consumer base for card products is primarily elementary school students, with 70% of offline purchasers falling into this category [35] - The report highlights a strong purchasing habit among consumers, with 42% maintaining stable monthly purchases, indicating high user loyalty [37] 3. Regional Market Analysis - The U.S. market is characterized by a mature event system and a strong player base, while Japan leverages its anime IPs for card development, showcasing unique entertainment and social aspects [42][62] - The Chinese market has evolved from imitation to innovation, with local companies developing unique paths and capturing significant market share [79][81] 4. Business Model and Growth Logic - The card industry's business model is driven by IP, diverse products, and a multi-channel sales approach, with a focus on building an IP matrix and enhancing user engagement through events and online communities [84] - The average direct material cost for trading cards is projected to be RMB 0.25 per pack, with an average selling price of RMB 1.70 per pack, resulting in a gross margin of 71.3% [3]