我国集换式卡牌行业处于快速发展期，空间潜力较大 2024年中国集换式卡牌市场规模263亿元(yoy+110.4%)，位列全球第一，是泛娱乐品包中增长最快的包 类。战标美日，我国TCG市场尚处于发展早期，但自2018年起已显示出强劲增长势头，预计到2029年市 场规模有望达到446亿元。增长动能主要来自于供需共振：需求侧看，我国近年来人均可支配收入持续 增长，支撑消费结构向改善型转变，"悦己消费"需求提升，愿意为IP情绪价值消费的泛二次元用户高达 5.03亿人，推动以卡牌为表产的泛娱乐消费成为新增长极;供给侧看，一方面，以哪吒之魔童闹海为表 产的国品IP崛起，带动我国IP衍生包市场日益繁荣，催化出卡游、泡泡玛特等本土潮玩公司，供给持续 扩容;另一方面，我国TCG品业链逐渐成熟，卡牌二级市场交易活跃催化一级市场(授权+生品+销售)进 一步扩容。 玩法+IP构成集换式卡牌核心要素 1)玩法赋能：集换式卡牌具有低单价+高溢价+高复购率的特点，其盲盒机制的"不确定性"及即买即抽 的"即时反馈"提供强情绪刺激，卡牌独有的稀有度分级+TCG战，玩法又赋予了强收集+社交属性，推 动卡牌成为最能激发消费者购买欲望的潮玩品包之一 ...

Market Overview - The潮玩 industry in China is in a rapid growth phase, with low per capita spending on潮玩, indicating high growth potential[4] - Emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America show significant growth potential due to demographic advantages and rapid e-commerce penetration[4] - Mature markets in North America and Europe are experiencing a shift in consumer demand from traditional content IP to emerging image IP due to market saturation and changing media consumption habits[4] IP Lifecycle and Characteristics - Content IP generally has a longer lifecycle compared to image IP, with a higher ceiling for derivative value due to a complete worldview[4] - Image IP tends to experience rapid bursts of popularity but relies heavily on ongoing management for sustained value[4] Company Analysis - Pop Mart's growth is not limited by existing IP like Labubu; its core advantage lies in its ability to cultivate new IP efficiently, emphasizing an industrialized approach to the IP ecosystem[4] - Big Media's IP business, backed by Alibaba, has strong operational capabilities and can attract quality IP rights holders and downstream customers[4] - Blucol's strategy focuses on strong IP and low-price products, with significant growth potential in lower-tier markets[4] - Card Game's core advantage is its channel strength, with a focus on managing inventory and capitalizing on market trends[4] Investment Recommendations - The潮玩 industry in China is recommended for investment due to its rapid growth and low PEG ratios compared to global peers, with a focus on companies like Pop Mart (9992.HK), Big Media (1060.HK), Blucol (0325.HK), and Card Game (not yet listed)[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include underperformance in copyright renewals, intensified industry competition, and production capacity issues[4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The潮玩 (trendy toy) market is benefiting from macroeconomic development, with China's per capita GDP surpassing $12,000, shifting consumer spending from necessities to discretionary items, providing growth momentum for the潮玩 industry [1][2] - The IP toy market in China is projected to reach approximately 57.8 billion RMB by 2025, with an annual growth rate of about 20%, indicating a robust trend in the consumer sector [2] Core Insights and Arguments - IP toys account for about half of the sales in the潮玩 market, with blind boxes being the main driving force [1][2] - The rise of潮玩 brands is largely attributed to consumer-driven marketing, aesthetic appeal, third-party certification (such as going public), and social media dissemination, which reduces marketing costs and fosters a vibrant secondary market [1][4] - The core competitiveness of潮玩 includes aesthetic PUA (Pick Up Artist), third-party certification, and self-promotion, allowing brands like泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) to attract young consumers and enhance brand credibility through unique designs and social attributes [1][5] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The purchase behavior of潮玩 and new consumer products is characterized by randomness, such as the uncertainty of obtaining rare cards or hidden items in blind boxes, which stimulates dopamine release and increases pleasure [8][9] - Blind boxes dominate the潮玩 market, accounting for over half of the sales due to their more appealing presentation compared to directly displayed products [8] Competitive Landscape -潮玩 companies can be categorized into three types: channel-based (e.g.,名创优品), third-party IP-based (e.g.,布鲁可, 卡游), and self-owned IP companies (e.g.,泡泡玛特). Self-owned IP companies are considered to have the most long-term value due to their rarity and sustainability [3][11][15] - Successful潮玩 brands like泡泡玛特 have gained credibility through third-party certification, unlike unsuccessful brands like暴力熊 (Bearbrick) and蒙奇奇 (Monchhichi), which lacked such validation [6][7] Additional Insights - The core competitiveness of self-owned IP companies lies in their ability to sustain operations, which determines whether an IP can remain relevant and profitable over time [13] - Companies using third-party IP for product sales can achieve growth by enhancing their operational and channel capabilities, focusing on exclusive IP acquisition to avoid homogenization and ensure profitability [14]

Macro Economic Group - The ADP report indicates a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the US for June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with expectations set at an increase of 98,000 jobs [4] - The service sector saw a significant decline, losing 66,000 jobs, primarily in professional and business services, healthcare, and education [4] - Market anticipations for the upcoming non-farm payroll report suggest a modest increase of 100,000 jobs, with unemployment rates potentially reaching 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - A trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was announced, imposing a minimum 20% tariff on all goods exported to the US from Vietnam, which could lower the tariff rates compared to the current over 30% rates from China [8] - The agreement is expected to reduce uncertainty regarding the US-China trade war, as it reflects the worst-case scenario for tariffs [8] Advanced Manufacturing Group - In June, the top five automotive companies by sales were BYD, SAIC, Geely, Chery, and Great Wall, with sales figures of 383,000, 365,000, 236,000, 234,000, and 111,000 units respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 21.6%, 42%, 16.6%, and 12.9% [11] - New energy vehicle sales are driven by technological advancements, particularly in pure electric range and fast-charging technology, alleviating consumer concerns [11] - BYD's overseas sales surged from 27,000 units two years ago to 90,000 units, indicating the global competitiveness of Chinese new energy vehicles [11] Consumer Group - The company Card Game reported a revenue of 10.057 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 278%, with an adjusted net profit of 4.466 billion yuan, reflecting a 378% growth [16] - The company holds a market share of 71.1% in the collectible card segment, with rapid growth in non-card revenue, increasing by 284.5% year-on-year [16] - The diversified product layout, including figurines and stationery, has significantly supported the company's sustained growth [16]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of grasping the layout rhythm of new consumption sectors while paying attention to structural opportunities in traditional light industry, as the valuation of traditional light industry is at historical lows [2][8] - The new consumption sector is expected to lead the market in H1 2025, with a focus on new tobacco and trendy toys, while traditional light industry should be gradually increased in H2 2025 [2][12] - The report suggests that the new tobacco market is set for expansion due to the increasing global penetration rate and the easing impact of illegal products on the market [2][29] Group 2 - The paper highlights the structural opportunities in the paper and packaging sector, recommending a focus on companies with stable positions and high dividends, as well as those benefiting from industry consolidation [2][6] - The two-wheeler sector is expected to see improved market conditions due to new national standards and policies promoting trade-in programs, making it a favorable investment area [2][6] - The domestic home goods sector is projected to benefit from trade-in policies and resilient demand in the second-hand housing market, with a focus on companies with strong retail capabilities [2][6] Group 3 - The report indicates that the export sector is facing mixed risks and opportunities, with a recommendation to focus on companies with unique advantages or those showing marginal improvements [2][6] - The analysis of the new consumption sector identifies key areas such as light consumer goods, AI glasses, and pet food, with a focus on companies that can innovate and differentiate their products [2][12] - The report provides a detailed comparison of various segments within the new consumption sector, highlighting their market penetration rates and competitive dynamics [14][20]

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of Chinese trendy toy brands in global markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, reshaping the competitive landscape of the toy industry [1][2][6] - The global toy market reached a size of 773.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% from 2024 to 2028, driven primarily by the rise of collectible toys [2][16] - The shift in consumer demographics towards adult collectors, termed "Kidult" culture, is a significant driver of this market transformation [2][3] Market Dynamics - The collectible toy segment has become a core growth engine, with the global market for collectible toys reaching 57.1 billion USD in 2023 and expected to exceed 69.6 billion USD by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 4.0% [2][17] - Traditional toy giants like Mattel and Hasbro are facing challenges due to aging IPs and reliance on offline channels, leading to a decline in market share [3][37] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with new brands like Squishmallows and Funko gaining traction, while established brands struggle to maintain their positions [3][33] Competitive Advantages of Chinese Brands - Chinese trendy toy brands leverage a three-pronged advantage: designer talent, supply chain efficiency, and IP ecosystem development [4][5] - The number of art students in China has increased significantly, from 133,000 in 2004 to 647,000 in 2024, providing a robust talent pool for design innovation [4] - Chinese manufacturers are enhancing production precision and efficiency, exemplified by companies like Gaodesi, which produces over 10 billion building blocks annually [4] Regional Market Insights - Southeast Asia is identified as a key battleground for Chinese brands, with a toy market size of 4.1 billion USD in 2023 and a young population driving demand [6][7] - The U.S. market shows high consumer spending on toys, with an average of 136.8 USD per person, significantly higher than in China [7][8] - Chinese brands are successfully penetrating the U.S. market through localized strategies and partnerships with popular IPs, achieving notable sales growth [7][8] Strategic Developments - Companies like Pop Mart are adopting a dual strategy of original IP development and global licensing partnerships, enhancing their market presence [5][8] - The trend of "prosumer" engagement is emerging, where consumers actively participate in the creation and promotion of IPs, increasing brand loyalty [8][9] - The report emphasizes the transformation of the Chinese toy industry from a manufacturing base to a global brand powerhouse, with significant cultural implications [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent divergence between the RMB exchange rate and the US-China interest rate differential, attributing it to the weakening credit of US assets, which enhances the willingness of enterprises to convert currency [3] - The article emphasizes that the future pricing of the RMB exchange rate should consider the credit of the US dollar, suggesting that a weaker dollar environment provides greater liquidity and policy space domestically [3] Group 2 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum focuses on global financial governance, extensive financial opening, and the integration of capital markets with technological innovation [7] - The forum highlights the importance of a comprehensive foreign exchange innovation policy to support high-quality development [7] Group 3 - The article identifies six misconceptions about stablecoins, including the belief that their value is absolutely stable and that all fiat currencies can issue stablecoins in large quantities [9] - It also discusses the potential impact of stablecoins on the supply of US dollars and their role in the RWA market [9] Group 4 - The article outlines a trend of Chinese residents moving their deposits back into wealth management products due to declining deposit rates, reversing a previous trend of deposit inflow [11] - This shift indicates a changing landscape in wealth allocation among Chinese residents [11] Group 5 - The article reviews the historical performance of assets during periods of a weakening dollar since 1970, suggesting investment opportunities in foreign exchange markets, commodities, and non-US equities [13] - It highlights the increasing likelihood of dollar depreciation due to misaligned monetary policies and external circulation obstacles [13] Group 6 - The article presents ten investment themes in the Chinese stock market, focusing on frontier technologies, advanced manufacturing, and improving market structures [15][20] - It emphasizes the potential of AI, bioeconomy, 6G communication, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and autonomous driving as key investment areas [16][17][18][21][23] Group 7 - The article discusses the acceleration of capital market reforms, emphasizing the importance of RMB internationalization and capital opening in stabilizing the stock market [29] - It notes that the integration of technology and industry innovation is crucial for future market developments [29]

Group 1: Overview - The report indicates a weak recovery in domestic demand for the home furnishing sector, while the pan-entertainment toy industry is experiencing upward momentum driven by emotional consumption [15][39]. Group 2: Home Furnishing Industry - Domestic demand for home furnishings is under pressure, with a projected decline of 3.9% in building materials and home sales for 2024, but a gradual improvement is expected in Q4 2024 due to government subsidies [4][16]. - The introduction of a doubling of the old-for-new subsidy to 300 billion yuan in 2025 is anticipated to stimulate demand and help leading companies increase market share [4][28]. - Key companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Gujia Home and Sophia, are expected to show resilience in performance due to high dividend yields and strong brand advantages, with PE ratios generally below 15 [4][30][32]. - Export performance for home furnishing companies has been improving since November 2023, driven by overseas retailers replenishing inventory, although uncertainties remain due to changing tariff policies [4][33]. Group 3: Pan-Entertainment Toy Industry - The pan-entertainment toy industry in China is rapidly expanding, with GMV projected to grow from 48.8 billion yuan in 2019 to 101.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.8% [5][51]. - The industry is categorized into card games and IP toys, with card games holding a 70% market share, while the IP toy market is more fragmented [5][54]. - Key players such as Pop Mart and Blokus are experiencing significant growth, with Pop Mart's revenue expected to increase substantially due to its diverse IP matrix and strong online and offline channels [5][61][64]. - The report highlights the importance of emotional consumption and the rise of local designers as key drivers for the future development of the pan-entertainment toy industry [5][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the collectible card industry [6] Core Insights - The collectible card industry is expected to maintain strong growth, driven by diverse IPs, evolving consumer habits, and the inherent social, collectible, and investment attributes of cards [5][12] - The market for collectible cards in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, with a market share of 25.8% in the overall entertainment toy industry by 2024 [12][16] - The industry is characterized by a high concentration of major players, with the top five companies holding 82.4% of the market share [4][32] Summary by Sections 1. Collectible Card Market Potential - The collectible card segment is a significant part of the rapidly growing entertainment toy industry, which is expected to reach a market size of RMB 1,018 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 15.8% from 2024 to 2029 [12][13] - The collectible card market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, making it the fastest-growing sub-sector within the entertainment toy industry [16][17] 2. Types and Characteristics of Cards - The card industry is divided into collectible and non-collectible cards, with collectible cards offering themes, collection, exchange, and competitive play [3][26] - Collectible cards can be further categorized into competitive and non-competitive types, catering to both strategic gameplay and collection interests [3][26] 3. Competitive Landscape - The collectible card industry is highly concentrated, with the leading company, 卡游 (KAYOU), holding a market share of 71.1% in 2024 [4][32] - Major players include 卡游, 宝可梦公司, and others, with the top five companies dominating the market [4][32] 4. Consumer Engagement and Market Dynamics - The low entry barrier and multiple attributes of collectible cards, including social interaction, competition, and investment potential, contribute to their growing popularity [4][39] - The rise of live streaming and secondary markets is enhancing consumer engagement and driving sales in the collectible card sector [4][54] 5. Future Growth Drivers - Factors such as increasing disposable income, expanding consumer demographics, and heightened interest from IP holders in developing entertainment products are expected to drive the market forward [20][21][24] - The overseas market presents significant opportunities for growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the collectible card market is projected to reach RMB 2.8 billion by 2024 [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid growth and challenges faced by the card game company, 卡游, which is attempting a second listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with projected revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - 卡游's revenue structure is heavily reliant on licensed products, and the company has been experiencing continuous losses during the reporting period, raising concerns about its sustainability [1] - The company’s main products include collectible trading cards, figurines, and stationery, with collectible cards being the most recognized, particularly those featuring popular IPs like Ultraman [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that students have spent exorbitant amounts on cards, with one student reportedly spending nearly 100,000 yuan in six months, and some parents spending up to 2 million yuan without completing their collections [2] - The trading card market has seen speculative behavior, with rare cards being sold on the black market for as much as 210,000 yuan, indicating a troubling trend of irrational consumption among minors [2] - The card drawing mechanism has been criticized for resembling gambling, potentially fostering a gambling mentality among minors [2]