Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to opportunistically take short positions in light crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price trends of international crude oil futures and the arbitrage situations of various crude oil varieties in different regions, and also provides key market news [1][2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil Price Trends - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 rose by $0.37 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%, to $58.38 per barrel; ICE Brent oil futures contract 02 rose by $0.31 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.50%, to $62.38 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up by $0.60 per barrel, a gain of 0.14%, to $442.30 per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saudi Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami and other crude oils are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces; Forties crude in the North Sea, Saudi Extra Light, Saharan Blend and Urals crude present arbitrage opportunities; Cabinda crude in Angola lacks competitiveness [2][4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH crude oil in the US is close to balance but slightly negative; Eagle Ford shale oil in the US has competitiveness in the Northwest European market; the arbitrage window of Azeri Light crude oil is closed; Saharan Blend crude oil in Algeria has strong competitiveness; Bonny Light crude oil in Nigeria is close to full balance [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk and Eagle Ford crude oils are deeply closed, lacking competitiveness compared with Urals crude oil [6][7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Dubai and Bonny Light crude oils are negative or close to the break - even point; WTI MEH crude oil in the US almost reaches the break - even point; Eagle Ford crude oil presents an arbitrage opportunity with an arbitrage space of +$1.16 per barrel [8][9] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventories increased in the week ending December 19; Libya's new round of oil block tenders attracted global energy companies, but political instability and infrastructure challenges need to be solved; Nigeria's four major crude oil grades' average daily export volume in February is expected to increase; the monthly rate of US durable goods orders in October decreased; US President Trump pressured Venezuelan President Maduro and threatened to keep the oil on seized tankers [9][10][11] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the international crude oil market, including price movements, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Hold short positions in crude oil, and prices may gradually decline to new lows [1] Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.63, or 1.07%, to $58.25 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.55, or 0.88%, to $61.94 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 5.90 yuan per barrel, or 1.31%, at 443.40 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties have closed arbitrage windows, with only Vasconia showing a weak arbitrage opportunity of $0.76 per barrel, and Ecuador's Napo crude oil having a significant arbitrage space of $3.66 per barrel [2][4] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties is close to the break - even point with intense competition; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities, and Urals has a huge arbitrage space of $22.82 per barrel due to sanctions [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - Multiple crude oil varieties such as WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light present arbitrage opportunities, with varying degrees of arbitrage space [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties have closed arbitrage windows, with weak competitiveness against Urals [6][7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, while Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils have closed arbitrage windows [8] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4779000 barrels in the week ending December 5, API Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 47000 barrels, and API gasoline inventory increased by 6955000 barrels [9][10] - EIA raised the 2025 US oil production forecast by 20000 barrels per day to a record - high average of 13.61 million barrels per day, but lowered the 2026 forecast by 50000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [11] - EIA slightly raised the 2025 Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts and also slightly raised the 2026 forecasts [11] - Russia's average daily crude oil production in November was about 9.43 million barrels, still more than 100000 barrels per day below the OPEC+ quota [11]