Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold short positions in crude oil and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [1] Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.86, or 1.47%, to $57.60 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.93, or 1.49%, to $61.28 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan per barrel, or 1.45%, to 434.80 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [10] Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -1.16 to -8.39 USD/barrel, showing weak competitiveness [2] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has no cost - advantage against Bonny Light, with an arbitrage space of -0.3 USD/barrel; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities with spaces of 0.93 and 2.68 USD/barrel respectively; Urals has a huge arbitrage space of 23.2 USD/barrel due to sanctions [4] 3. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light show arbitrage opportunities against Forties, with arbitrage spaces ranging from 0.9 to 2.23 USD/barrel; Azeri Light has a weak arbitrage space [5] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford against Urals are closed, with large negative arbitrage spaces, indicating weak competitiveness [6][7] 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars against Dubai present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces of 1.2, 5.08, and 1.33 USD/barrel respectively; Basrah Heavy and Maya have closed arbitrage windows [8] 6. Key Market News - Trump promised to contribute to Ukraine's security efforts if Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached; Trump mentioned that actions in Venezuela will soon take place on land; the Central Economic Work Conference was held on December 10 - 11 [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Hold short positions in crude oil and monitor geopolitical disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 rose by $0.21, or 0.36%, to $58.46 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 rose by $0.27, or 0.44%, to $62.21 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down by 3.80 yuan per barrel, or 0.86%, to 440.50 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saudi extra - light crude, Angolan crude, Nigerian crude, North Sea crude, and some Saudi heavy crude are closed; Vasconia crude shows a weak arbitrage opportunity; Ecuador's Napo crude has a significant arbitrage space; Maya crude is close to the break - even point [2][4] 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties and Cabinda crudes have insufficient competitiveness; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend crudes show arbitrage opportunities, with Urals crude having a huge arbitrage space due to sanctions - related discounts [4] 3.4 Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crudes present arbitrage opportunities; Azeri Light crude has a weak arbitrage space [6] 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crudes against Urals are all closed [7][8] 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crudes show arbitrage opportunities; Basrah Heavy and Maya crudes have their arbitrage windows closed [9] 3.7 Key Market News - Venezuelan opposition leader Machado fled the country; the Fed announced short - term bond purchases and a 25BP interest rate cut; the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker; Venezuela's President Maduro made a tough statement; a Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker was sunk in the Black Sea [12] 3.8 Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [11]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the international crude oil market, including price movements, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Hold short positions in crude oil, and prices may gradually decline to new lows [1] Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.63, or 1.07%, to $58.25 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.55, or 0.88%, to $61.94 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 5.90 yuan per barrel, or 1.31%, at 443.40 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties have closed arbitrage windows, with only Vasconia showing a weak arbitrage opportunity of $0.76 per barrel, and Ecuador's Napo crude oil having a significant arbitrage space of $3.66 per barrel [2][4] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties is close to the break - even point with intense competition; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities, and Urals has a huge arbitrage space of $22.82 per barrel due to sanctions [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - Multiple crude oil varieties such as WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light present arbitrage opportunities, with varying degrees of arbitrage space [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties have closed arbitrage windows, with weak competitiveness against Urals [6][7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, while Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils have closed arbitrage windows [8] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4779000 barrels in the week ending December 5, API Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 47000 barrels, and API gasoline inventory increased by 6955000 barrels [9][10] - EIA raised the 2025 US oil production forecast by 20000 barrels per day to a record - high average of 13.61 million barrels per day, but lowered the 2026 forecast by 50000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [11] - EIA slightly raised the 2025 Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts and also slightly raised the 2026 forecasts [11] - Russia's average daily crude oil production in November was about 9.43 million barrels, still more than 100000 barrels per day below the OPEC+ quota [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the short - term trend of crude oil is volatile, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions. The current trend strength of crude oil is - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI 01 futures contract rose $0.31/barrel, a 0.53% increase, closing at $58.95/barrel. - ICE Brent 02 futures contract rose $0.22/barrel, a 0.35% increase, closing at $62.67/barrel. - SC2601 crude oil futures rose 1.60 yuan/barrel, a 0.36% increase, closing at 450.90 yuan/barrel [1]. 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are mostly closed, with different negative arbitrage spaces. For example, Arab Extra Light has an arbitrage space of -$5.68/barrel [2]. 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties crude oil shows a slight negative arbitrage, with a trade volume of 36 MB/D in October. - Arab Extra Light's arbitrage window is slightly open but has no actual trade volume. - Saharan Blend has a significant arbitrage space, with a trade volume of 9 MB/D in October [5]. 3.4 Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, etc., are open, with different positive arbitrage spaces. For example, Eagle Ford has an arbitrage space of $1.27/barrel [6]. 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, etc., are deeply closed. For example, Saharan Blend has an arbitrage space of -$16.12/barrel [7]. 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri and Napo crude oils have open arbitrage windows but no recent trade volume. Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils' arbitrage windows are closed [8]. 3.7 Key Market News - Venezuelan President Maduro said he had a phone call with US President Trump about 10 days ago. - Venezuela's oil exports in November rose slightly to about 921,000 barrels per day, the third - highest monthly average this year. - US EIA crude inventory and gasoline inventory data for the week ending November 28 deviated from expectations. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned in an article about monetary policy adjustments [9][10][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short positions in crude oil should be held, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 01 contract rose by $0.77 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.32%, to $59.32 per barrel. ICE Brent futures 02 contract rose by $0.79 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.27%, to $63.17 per barrel. SC2601 crude oil futures closed up by 5 yuan per barrel, a gain of 1.11%, to 455.90 yuan per barrel [1]. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All light crude oil arbitrage windows flowing into USGC are deeply closed. US domestic crude oil has an overwhelming cost advantage over imported Middle - Eastern light crude oil, strongly suppressing the import demand for such crude oil. For coking refineries, there are selective opportunities. The arbitrage window for Colombian heavy crude Vasconia is slightly open (-$1.94), and the Mexican Maya crude oil arbitrage window is close to balance (-$1.16) [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arbitrage opportunities in this region are differentiated. North Sea Forties, Algerian Saharan Blend, and Russian Urals have economic viability. Notably, the high arbitrage value of Urals crude oil (+$15.60) reflects the large price discount due to geopolitical factors, driving a large amount of Russian crude oil to flow into this region [4]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The trans - Atlantic light crude oil arbitrage window is slightly open. The arbitrage windows of WTI MEH (+$0.56), Eagle Ford (+$1.03), Azeri Light (+$0.04), Saharan Blend (+$1.37), and Bonny Light (+$0.15) are all open, but the economic viability is generally weak [5]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows flowing into the Mediterranean are deeply closed. Urals crude oil has an absolute cost advantage in the Mediterranean region, consolidating its position as the main supply source [6]. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - For cracking refineries, all alternative crude oil arbitrage windows for ESPO are closed, and the negative values are large, indicating that ESPO has a strong market share and cost advantage in the Northeast Asian market. For coking refineries, there are significant opportunities. The arbitrage window for South American heavy crude Napo is open (+$5.68), and the arbitrage of Indonesian Duri and US Mars crude oil is also open [7]. Key Market News - On December 1st, shipping company Besiktas Shipping confirmed that an oil tanker carrying diesel was attacked by four external explosions near Dakar, Senegal. It was the third Russian - related vessel attacked in the past few days [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term rebound, take the opportunity to increase short positions on rallies [1] Core View - The report analyzes the international crude oil market, including price changes of major crude oil futures contracts and the status of crude oil arbitrage in different regions [1][2][4] Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX was closed without a quote; ICE Brent crude futures contract 01 rose $0.21 per barrel, a 0.33% increase, to $63.34; SC2601 crude oil futures closed up 6.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.46% increase, to 451.60 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All light crude oil arbitrage windows flowing into USGC are deeply closed. For example, the arbitrage values of Arabian extra - light, Arabian light, etc. are negative, indicating that US domestic crude oil has a cost advantage over imported Middle - East light crude oil. For coking refineries, there are selective opportunities for some heavy crude oils such as Vasconia and Maya [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage opportunities in this region are differentiated. Forties, Arabian extra - light, Saharan Blend, and Urals have economic viability, especially Urals with a high arbitrage value of +$15.60, driving a large amount of Russian crude oil to flow into this region [4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - The trans - Atlantic light crude oil arbitrage window is slightly open. WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, etc. have open arbitrage windows but weak economic viability, indicating that multiple light crude oils in the European market have a slight cost advantage over local Forties crude oil [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows flowing into the Mediterranean are deeply closed. Urals has an absolute cost advantage and maintains its position as the main supply source in the Mediterranean region [7][9] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - For cracking refineries, ESPO has a strong market share and cost advantage in the Northeast Asian market. For coking refineries, there are significant opportunities, such as South American heavy crude oil Napo, Indonesian Duri, and US Mars with open arbitrage windows [9] Key Market News - Iran's supreme leader said rumors about Iran sending messages to the US through intermediaries are lies. OPEC + may keep the oil production level unchanged at the Sunday meeting and reach an agreement on the mechanism for evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity. Four online meetings will be held starting at 13:00 GMT (21:00 Beijing time) [10][11] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Crude Oil Futures: Supply Glut, Geopolitical Instability - Author: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International oil prices fluctuated slightly in the week ending November 14, 2025. The prices rose in the first half of the week due to factors such as increased Chinese crude oil imports in October, a weaker US dollar, and the US government's progress in ending the shutdown, as well as ongoing sanctions on Russia and infrastructure attacks in Ukraine. However, they declined in the second half after the OPEC monthly report forecast a supply glut [2]. - Despite the downward pressure from the overall supply glut in the crude oil market, geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russia and attacks on energy facilities introduce uncertainties and partially offset the downward pressure, leading to a volatile and fluctuating price trend in the short - term. Traders should pay attention to the resistance level of 470 yuan/barrel for the 01 contract [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - As of November 14, 2025, SC2601, Brent, and WTI oil prices were 463.6 yuan/barrel, 64.39, and 59.39 US dollars/barrel respectively. SC2601 and Brent prices rose slightly from the previous weekend, while WTI fell slightly [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Crude Oil | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 463.60 | 460.60 | 3 | 0.89% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 65.19 | 65.12 | -0.07 | -0.08% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 64.29 | 63.70 | 0.59 | 0.93% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 59.81 | 59.67 | -0.03 | -0.05% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13651 | 211 | 1.55% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 427581 | 421168 | 6413 | 1.52% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 704 | 528 | 171 | 33.33% | Weekly | [4] Market Data Charts - Multiple charts are provided to show the prices of different crude oil products (SC, Oman, Brent, WTI), their spreads, as well as relationships with factors like the US dollar index. Also, charts display supply (OPEC and US production, US rig counts), inventory (OECD and US inventories), demand (refinery inputs, utilization rates in the US, China, Europe, and India), and cost - profit (refinery profits) aspects [6][12][18][25][33]