2025 年 9 月 18 日 原油：或延续反弹，月差同步走强 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI10 月原油期货收跌 0.47 美元/桶，跌幅 0.73%，报 64.05 美元/桶；布伦特 11 月原油期货 收跌 0.52 美元/桶，跌幅 0.76%，报 67.95 美元/桶；SC2511 原油期货收跌 2.60 元/桶，跌幅 0.52%， 报 497.20 元/桶。 1、全球基准原油价格动态 | 基准原油 | 价格区间/中 间价 | 日变化 | 备注/相关指标 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent (Dated) | 84.57 | - | 欧洲基准，受地缘政治风险及北海供应影响， 为国际油价主要风向标。 | | WTI (Cushing) | 64.07- 64.09/64.08 0 | 0.3 | 美国基准，反映内陆供需情况，与 Brent 价差 受管道运力及出口需求影响。 | | Dubai | 81.21 | 0.34 | 中东高硫原油基准，其部分交易将汇聚为完整 船货，并可能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil in the short - term is to watch [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides information on the closing prices and price changes of various crude oil futures, market news related to crude oil supply and demand, and EIA data on the US crude oil market [1][3] Summary by Relevant Information Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI10 crude oil futures rose by $0.90 per barrel, a 1.42% increase, closing at $64.15 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures rose by $0.83 per barrel, a 1.23% increase, closing at $68.05 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures fell by 4.90 yuan per barrel, a 1.01% decrease, closing at 481.50 yuan per barrel [1] Market News - Russia will extend the full gasoline export ban until September. A new temporary ban on gasoline exports will be in effect from September 1 to September 30 for all exporters, and the restriction for gasoline producers will be lifted from October 1 [2][3] - The White House trade advisor said that India could get a 25% tariff discount if it stops buying Russian oil [3] - Mexico's DOS BOCAS refinery stopped production due to a power outage and will try to restart on Thursday [3] - The US imported about 74,000 barrels per day of crude oil from Venezuela last week, the first weekly import since July [3] - There are indications that European countries may start the UN procedure to re - impose sanctions on Iran on Thursday, with a 30 - day process and room for further diplomatic negotiations in the coming weeks [3] - On August 26, an explosion and fire occurred on the oil pipeline connecting Ryazan and Moscow in Russia, and the transportation of oil products to Moscow through this pipeline has been indefinitely suspended [3][4] EIA Data - In the week of August 22, US crude oil exports decreased by 562,000 barrels per day to 3.81 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels to 13.439 million barrels per day [3] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.392 million barrels to 418 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.15 million barrels per day, a 2.53% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 776,000 barrels to 404.2 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.234 million barrels per day, a decrease of 263,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [3] - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the week to August 22 was 776,000 barrels, compared to 223,000 barrels in the previous week [3] - US EIA crude oil inventory in the week to August 22 was - 2.392 million barrels, expected - 1.863 million barrels, and the previous value was - 6.014 million barrels; EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 838,000 barrels, compared to 419,000 barrels in the previous week [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral stance [4]