2025 年 11 月 7 日 原油：空单持有，或逐步考验前低 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI12 月原油期货收跌 0.17 美元/桶，跌幅 0.29%，报 59.43 美元/桶；布伦特 1 月原油期货收 跌 0.14 美元/桶，跌幅 0.22%，报 63.38 元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 5.40 元/桶，跌幅 1.17%，报 457.30 元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | 原油品种 | 产地 | 套利激励 ($/b) | 状态 | 市场动态与解读 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arab Extra Light | 沙特 | -4.6 | 关闭 | 沙特轻质油经济性不足，受高运费 和相对 WTI 的价差拖累。 | | Arab Light | 沙特 | -5.81 | 关闭 | 与 Extra Light 类似，中东至美湾 的套利窗口持续关闭。 | | Nemba | 安哥拉 | -5.79 | 关闭 | 西非原油在大西洋盆地竞争力减 弱，贸易流偏向欧洲。 | | Arab He ...

Global Benchmark Crude Oil Prices - Brent (Dated) price is 84.57, serving as the European benchmark and a major indicator of international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical risks and North Sea supply [2] - WTI (Cushing) price ranges from 64.07 - 64.09 with a mid - price of 64.08, up 0.3, reflecting inland supply - demand in the US, and its spread with Brent is affected by pipeline capacity and export demand [2] - Dubai price is 81.21, up 0.34, being the benchmark for Middle - East high - sulfur crude oil, with some trades potentially replaced by Murban crude oil [2] - Oman price is 81.55, up 0.45, a key Middle - East benchmark traded on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME), reflecting the Middle - East physical crude oil market [2] Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent/WTI (Front) spread is 4.30/4.32, and a wider spread usually means enhanced US crude oil export profitability [2] - Brent EFP (Nov) is 0.01/0.03, an instrument for converting futures positions to physical delivery [2] - WTI EFP (Oct) is 0.01/0.01, a mechanism for converting WTI futures positions to physical delivery in Cushing [2] - Dubai/Oman Swap (Oct) spread change is 0.07, reflecting the relative value between Dubai and Oman crude oil [2] Asian Major Crude Oils - Umm Lulu price is 71.03, up 0.34, an Abu Dhabi medium - grade crude oil [4] - Das Blend price ranges from 70.46 - 70.50 with a mid - price of 70.480, up 0.34, and its pricing usually refers to the Dubai benchmark with a quality premium [4] - Qatar Land price ranges from 70.18 - 70.22 with a mid - price of 70.200, up 0.35, and its quality discount reflects API degree and sulfur content relative to the benchmark [4] - Qatar Marine price ranges from 70.13 - 70.17 with a mid - price of 70.150, up 0.45, an important oil variety exported from the Middle - East to Asia [4] - ESPO (FOB Kozmino) is a key variety in the Far - East market, usually having a premium over Dubai crude oil [4] - Minas (Indonesia) price is 67.72, with an official selling price (OSP) usually referring to Asian naphtha/gasoline cracking margins [4] - Cossack (Australia) price closely tracks Dated Brent, being a light, low - sulfur crude oil favored by Asian refineries [4] Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Singapore gasoline crack (vs Dubai) is 8.93, reflecting the theoretical profit of refining crude oil into gasoline in Asia, driven by seasonal demand [5] - Singapore naphtha crack (vs Dubai) is - 4.28, indicating a loss in naphtha production due to weaker demand as a chemical raw material compared to gasoline and diesel [5] - Singapore diesel crack (vs Dubai) is 18.91, showing strong diesel demand or tight supply in Asia [5] - Singapore jet fuel crack (vs Dubai) is 17.86, highly correlated with the diesel crack spread and affected by the aviation industry recovery and seasonal travel demand [5] Key Market News - The US Fed interest rate decision (upper limit) on September 17, 2025, was announced at 4.25%, lower than the previous value of 4.50% [7] - In the week ending September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 2.19% decline, and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels, a 0.12% increase [7] - In the week ending September 12, US EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing decreased by 296,000 barrels, and overall EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, more than the expected 857,000 - barrel decrease [7] - The US Secretary of State Rubio announced sanctions on four armed groups allied with Iran [7] Market Trends - The report indicates that crude oil may continue to rebound, and the monthly spread will strengthen simultaneously. The trend strength of crude oil is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1][6] Futures Prices - WTI October crude oil futures closed down $0.47 per barrel, a 0.73% decline, at $64.05 per barrel [1] - Brent November crude oil futures closed down $0.52 per barrel, a 0.76% decline, at $67.95 per barrel [1] - SC2511 crude oil futures closed down 2.60 yuan per barrel, a 0.52% decline, at 497.20 yuan per barrel [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil in the short - term is to watch [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides information on the closing prices and price changes of various crude oil futures, market news related to crude oil supply and demand, and EIA data on the US crude oil market [1][3] Summary by Relevant Information Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI10 crude oil futures rose by $0.90 per barrel, a 1.42% increase, closing at $64.15 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures rose by $0.83 per barrel, a 1.23% increase, closing at $68.05 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures fell by 4.90 yuan per barrel, a 1.01% decrease, closing at 481.50 yuan per barrel [1] Market News - Russia will extend the full gasoline export ban until September. A new temporary ban on gasoline exports will be in effect from September 1 to September 30 for all exporters, and the restriction for gasoline producers will be lifted from October 1 [2][3] - The White House trade advisor said that India could get a 25% tariff discount if it stops buying Russian oil [3] - Mexico's DOS BOCAS refinery stopped production due to a power outage and will try to restart on Thursday [3] - The US imported about 74,000 barrels per day of crude oil from Venezuela last week, the first weekly import since July [3] - There are indications that European countries may start the UN procedure to re - impose sanctions on Iran on Thursday, with a 30 - day process and room for further diplomatic negotiations in the coming weeks [3] - On August 26, an explosion and fire occurred on the oil pipeline connecting Ryazan and Moscow in Russia, and the transportation of oil products to Moscow through this pipeline has been indefinitely suspended [3][4] EIA Data - In the week of August 22, US crude oil exports decreased by 562,000 barrels per day to 3.81 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels to 13.439 million barrels per day [3] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.392 million barrels to 418 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.15 million barrels per day, a 2.53% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 776,000 barrels to 404.2 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.234 million barrels per day, a decrease of 263,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [3] - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the week to August 22 was 776,000 barrels, compared to 223,000 barrels in the previous week [3] - US EIA crude oil inventory in the week to August 22 was - 2.392 million barrels, expected - 1.863 million barrels, and the previous value was - 6.014 million barrels; EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 838,000 barrels, compared to 419,000 barrels in the previous week [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral stance [4]