Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold short positions in crude oil and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [1] Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.86, or 1.47%, to $57.60 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.93, or 1.49%, to $61.28 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan per barrel, or 1.45%, to 434.80 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [10] Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -1.16 to -8.39 USD/barrel, showing weak competitiveness [2] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has no cost - advantage against Bonny Light, with an arbitrage space of -0.3 USD/barrel; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities with spaces of 0.93 and 2.68 USD/barrel respectively; Urals has a huge arbitrage space of 23.2 USD/barrel due to sanctions [4] 3. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light show arbitrage opportunities against Forties, with arbitrage spaces ranging from 0.9 to 2.23 USD/barrel; Azeri Light has a weak arbitrage space [5] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford against Urals are closed, with large negative arbitrage spaces, indicating weak competitiveness [6][7] 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars against Dubai present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces of 1.2, 5.08, and 1.33 USD/barrel respectively; Basrah Heavy and Maya have closed arbitrage windows [8] 6. Key Market News - Trump promised to contribute to Ukraine's security efforts if Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached; Trump mentioned that actions in Venezuela will soon take place on land; the Central Economic Work Conference was held on December 10 - 11 [11]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the international crude oil market, including price movements, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Hold short positions in crude oil, and prices may gradually decline to new lows [1] Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.63, or 1.07%, to $58.25 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.55, or 0.88%, to $61.94 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 5.90 yuan per barrel, or 1.31%, at 443.40 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties have closed arbitrage windows, with only Vasconia showing a weak arbitrage opportunity of $0.76 per barrel, and Ecuador's Napo crude oil having a significant arbitrage space of $3.66 per barrel [2][4] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties is close to the break - even point with intense competition; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities, and Urals has a huge arbitrage space of $22.82 per barrel due to sanctions [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - Multiple crude oil varieties such as WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light present arbitrage opportunities, with varying degrees of arbitrage space [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties have closed arbitrage windows, with weak competitiveness against Urals [6][7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, while Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils have closed arbitrage windows [8] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4779000 barrels in the week ending December 5, API Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 47000 barrels, and API gasoline inventory increased by 6955000 barrels [9][10] - EIA raised the 2025 US oil production forecast by 20000 barrels per day to a record - high average of 13.61 million barrels per day, but lowered the 2026 forecast by 50000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [11] - EIA slightly raised the 2025 Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts and also slightly raised the 2026 forecasts [11] - Russia's average daily crude oil production in November was about 9.43 million barrels, still more than 100000 barrels per day below the OPEC+ quota [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the short - term trend of crude oil is volatile, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions. The current trend strength of crude oil is - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI 01 futures contract rose $0.31/barrel, a 0.53% increase, closing at $58.95/barrel. - ICE Brent 02 futures contract rose $0.22/barrel, a 0.35% increase, closing at $62.67/barrel. - SC2601 crude oil futures rose 1.60 yuan/barrel, a 0.36% increase, closing at 450.90 yuan/barrel [1]. 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are mostly closed, with different negative arbitrage spaces. For example, Arab Extra Light has an arbitrage space of -$5.68/barrel [2]. 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties crude oil shows a slight negative arbitrage, with a trade volume of 36 MB/D in October. - Arab Extra Light's arbitrage window is slightly open but has no actual trade volume. - Saharan Blend has a significant arbitrage space, with a trade volume of 9 MB/D in October [5]. 3.4 Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, etc., are open, with different positive arbitrage spaces. For example, Eagle Ford has an arbitrage space of $1.27/barrel [6]. 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, etc., are deeply closed. For example, Saharan Blend has an arbitrage space of -$16.12/barrel [7]. 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri and Napo crude oils have open arbitrage windows but no recent trade volume. Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils' arbitrage windows are closed [8]. 3.7 Key Market News - Venezuelan President Maduro said he had a phone call with US President Trump about 10 days ago. - Venezuela's oil exports in November rose slightly to about 921,000 barrels per day, the third - highest monthly average this year. - US EIA crude inventory and gasoline inventory data for the week ending November 28 deviated from expectations. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned in an article about monetary policy adjustments [9][10][11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, with an oil trend strength of -1, it implies a bearish stance on the oil market [8]. 2. Core View - Hold short positions in crude oil, and prices may gradually test previous lows [1]. 3. Summary by Section Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All six types of crude oil, including Arab Extra Light from Saudi, Nemba from Angola, etc., have negative arbitrage incentives, and their arbitrage windows are closed. Reasons include high freight, weak competitiveness, and insufficient coking profits [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties from the North Sea has an arbitrage incentive of $0.52/b, with its window open, supporting trans - Atlantic light oil trade. Arab Extra Light from Saudi almost reaches the break - even point but faces fierce competition in the US East market [3]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH and Eagle Ford from the US have negative arbitrage incentives due to high trans - Atlantic freight. Azeri Light from Azerbaijan, Saharan Blend from Algeria, and Bonny Light from Nigeria have positive incentives, with their windows open, serving as stable light oil sources for Europe [5]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend from Algeria, Azeri Light from Azerbaijan, and Bonny Light from Nigeria all have negative arbitrage incentives, facing strong competition from Russian oil (Urals) [6]. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri from Indonesia and Basrah Heavy from Iraq have negative arbitrage incentives. Napo from Ecuador and Mars from the US have positive incentives, with their windows open, being attractive heavy - oil sources for Chinese refineries [6][7]. Key Market News - There was a cross - fire between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but the situation was quickly controlled. The Trump administration may cut flights. Iraq plans to offer over 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil in 2026. Singapore's fuel oil inventory dropped to a two - week low. India's Reliance Industries is trying to sell some Middle - East oil cargoes [9].

Global Benchmark Crude Oil Prices - Brent (Dated) price is 84.57, serving as the European benchmark and a major indicator of international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical risks and North Sea supply [2] - WTI (Cushing) price ranges from 64.07 - 64.09 with a mid - price of 64.08, up 0.3, reflecting inland supply - demand in the US, and its spread with Brent is affected by pipeline capacity and export demand [2] - Dubai price is 81.21, up 0.34, being the benchmark for Middle - East high - sulfur crude oil, with some trades potentially replaced by Murban crude oil [2] - Oman price is 81.55, up 0.45, a key Middle - East benchmark traded on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME), reflecting the Middle - East physical crude oil market [2] Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent/WTI (Front) spread is 4.30/4.32, and a wider spread usually means enhanced US crude oil export profitability [2] - Brent EFP (Nov) is 0.01/0.03, an instrument for converting futures positions to physical delivery [2] - WTI EFP (Oct) is 0.01/0.01, a mechanism for converting WTI futures positions to physical delivery in Cushing [2] - Dubai/Oman Swap (Oct) spread change is 0.07, reflecting the relative value between Dubai and Oman crude oil [2] Asian Major Crude Oils - Umm Lulu price is 71.03, up 0.34, an Abu Dhabi medium - grade crude oil [4] - Das Blend price ranges from 70.46 - 70.50 with a mid - price of 70.480, up 0.34, and its pricing usually refers to the Dubai benchmark with a quality premium [4] - Qatar Land price ranges from 70.18 - 70.22 with a mid - price of 70.200, up 0.35, and its quality discount reflects API degree and sulfur content relative to the benchmark [4] - Qatar Marine price ranges from 70.13 - 70.17 with a mid - price of 70.150, up 0.45, an important oil variety exported from the Middle - East to Asia [4] - ESPO (FOB Kozmino) is a key variety in the Far - East market, usually having a premium over Dubai crude oil [4] - Minas (Indonesia) price is 67.72, with an official selling price (OSP) usually referring to Asian naphtha/gasoline cracking margins [4] - Cossack (Australia) price closely tracks Dated Brent, being a light, low - sulfur crude oil favored by Asian refineries [4] Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Singapore gasoline crack (vs Dubai) is 8.93, reflecting the theoretical profit of refining crude oil into gasoline in Asia, driven by seasonal demand [5] - Singapore naphtha crack (vs Dubai) is - 4.28, indicating a loss in naphtha production due to weaker demand as a chemical raw material compared to gasoline and diesel [5] - Singapore diesel crack (vs Dubai) is 18.91, showing strong diesel demand or tight supply in Asia [5] - Singapore jet fuel crack (vs Dubai) is 17.86, highly correlated with the diesel crack spread and affected by the aviation industry recovery and seasonal travel demand [5] Key Market News - The US Fed interest rate decision (upper limit) on September 17, 2025, was announced at 4.25%, lower than the previous value of 4.50% [7] - In the week ending September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 2.19% decline, and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels, a 0.12% increase [7] - In the week ending September 12, US EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing decreased by 296,000 barrels, and overall EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, more than the expected 857,000 - barrel decrease [7] - The US Secretary of State Rubio announced sanctions on four armed groups allied with Iran [7] Market Trends - The report indicates that crude oil may continue to rebound, and the monthly spread will strengthen simultaneously. The trend strength of crude oil is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1][6] Futures Prices - WTI October crude oil futures closed down $0.47 per barrel, a 0.73% decline, at $64.05 per barrel [1] - Brent November crude oil futures closed down $0.52 per barrel, a 0.76% decline, at $67.95 per barrel [1] - SC2511 crude oil futures closed down 2.60 yuan per barrel, a 0.52% decline, at 497.20 yuan per barrel [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil in the short - term is to watch [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides information on the closing prices and price changes of various crude oil futures, market news related to crude oil supply and demand, and EIA data on the US crude oil market [1][3] Summary by Relevant Information Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI10 crude oil futures rose by $0.90 per barrel, a 1.42% increase, closing at $64.15 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures rose by $0.83 per barrel, a 1.23% increase, closing at $68.05 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures fell by 4.90 yuan per barrel, a 1.01% decrease, closing at 481.50 yuan per barrel [1] Market News - Russia will extend the full gasoline export ban until September. A new temporary ban on gasoline exports will be in effect from September 1 to September 30 for all exporters, and the restriction for gasoline producers will be lifted from October 1 [2][3] - The White House trade advisor said that India could get a 25% tariff discount if it stops buying Russian oil [3] - Mexico's DOS BOCAS refinery stopped production due to a power outage and will try to restart on Thursday [3] - The US imported about 74,000 barrels per day of crude oil from Venezuela last week, the first weekly import since July [3] - There are indications that European countries may start the UN procedure to re - impose sanctions on Iran on Thursday, with a 30 - day process and room for further diplomatic negotiations in the coming weeks [3] - On August 26, an explosion and fire occurred on the oil pipeline connecting Ryazan and Moscow in Russia, and the transportation of oil products to Moscow through this pipeline has been indefinitely suspended [3][4] EIA Data - In the week of August 22, US crude oil exports decreased by 562,000 barrels per day to 3.81 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels to 13.439 million barrels per day [3] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.392 million barrels to 418 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.15 million barrels per day, a 2.53% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 776,000 barrels to 404.2 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.234 million barrels per day, a decrease of 263,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [3] - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the week to August 22 was 776,000 barrels, compared to 223,000 barrels in the previous week [3] - US EIA crude oil inventory in the week to August 22 was - 2.392 million barrels, expected - 1.863 million barrels, and the previous value was - 6.014 million barrels; EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 838,000 barrels, compared to 419,000 barrels in the previous week [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral stance [4]