Key Takeaways OKLO faces delayed revenue until late 2027 or 2028, with EPS negative through 2026.OKLO trades at 8.73X book, above industry, sector and S&P 500 multiples.OKLO holds $1.2B cash as Idaho construction begins, but DOE, NRC and fuel risks threaten timeline.Oklo Inc. (OKLO) offers long-term promise in advanced nuclear, but the near-term setup remains difficult. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), signaling weak momentum over the next one to three months.That rating aligns with the current fun ...

Core Viewpoint - The Belgian government is in discussions with French utility Engie regarding potential extensions of the country's nuclear reactors [1] Group 1 - The talks have resumed, indicating a renewed interest in nuclear energy as part of Belgium's energy strategy [1]

03 Feb 2026 11:18:42 ET │ 19 pages Vi e w p o i n t | China Diversified Utilities Higher Grid Capex Growth in 2026E; Lifting Solar & Wind Installations CITI'S TAKE PRC electricity demand growth in 2025 was +5.0% y/y, a deceleration of 1.8ppts from the previous year due to a warmer-than-usual winter in 1Q25. We expect electricity demand growth to accelerate to 6.5% y/y in 2026 based on a 1.3x multiple for annual electricity demand growth versus annual GDP growth, similar to those in 2020-24. Meanwhile, 2025 ...

Industry Overview - Nuclear energy is gaining interest due to soaring energy demands in the United States, with significant planned investments expected in the coming decades [2][4] - The U.S. government has set ambitious targets for nuclear energy production, aiming for 400 gigawatts (GW) of electricity capacity by 2050, which is nearly four times the current levels [4] Company Position - Constellation Energy is the largest producer of carbon-free energy in the U.S., with a nuclear asset capacity of 22.1 GW, more than double that of its closest competitor [5] - The company has established partnerships with leading AI firms, including a 20-year power supply agreement with Microsoft and a similar deal with Meta Platforms [6] Financial Outlook - Constellation Energy's current dividend yield is just over 0.5%, but the company has a low dividend payout ratio of 17% based on full-year 2025 earnings estimates [7][8] - Analysts project that Constellation Energy's earnings per share will grow by 15% annually over the next three to five years, allowing for potential double-digit dividend increases without significantly stretching the payout ratio [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered $2.01 of FFO per unit, up 10% year-over-year, aligning with long-term growth targets [3][15] - In Q4, FFO was $346 million, up 14% year-over-year, or $0.51 per unit [15] - The company ended 2025 with $4.6 billion in available liquidity, maintaining a BBB+ investment-grade credit rating [17][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The hydroelectric segment generated FFO of $607 million, up 19% from the prior year, benefiting from solid generation in Canada and Colombia [16] - The wind and solar segments combined generated $648 million of FFO, supported by acquisitions and investments, though offset by prior year gains [16] - Distributed energy storage and sustainable solutions segments achieved record results of $614 million, up almost 90% from the prior year, driven by development growth and the acquisition of Neoen [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The energy demand is rising significantly, driven by electrification and industrial activity, with a shift from energy transition to energy addition [6][7] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for power, particularly in solar and onshore wind, aiming for a run rate of delivering roughly 10 GW of new capacity per year by 2027 [8][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on scaling development of low-cost, fast-to-market solar and onshore wind to meet accelerating power demand [8] - Investments in hydro and nuclear are emphasized for their baseload and scale capabilities, with significant contracts signed with major corporates [9][10] - The company aims to expand its battery storage capacity to over 10 GW in the next three years, leveraging partnerships and technological advancements [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the strategic priority of power globally, indicating that energy demand growth is at a pace not seen in decades [5][6] - The company sees a constructive environment for M&A and growth deployment, with expectations of significant opportunities in the coming years [53] - The scarcity value of hydroelectric power is at an all-time high, with long-term contracts expected to drive higher contracted power prices [42] Other Important Information - The company announced a 5% increase in annual distribution to $1.468 per unit, marking 15 consecutive years of annual distribution growth of at least 5% [25] - A fully discretionary $400 million at-the-market equity issuance program was announced to repurchase BEP LP units [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Microsoft Framework Agreement and capacity cadence - Management noted that demand from corporates, especially hyperscalers, is at an all-time high, with expected growth in capacity from 2026 onwards [27][29] Question: Commentary on balance sheet and liquidity - Management expressed comfort with maintaining liquidity around the $4 billion mark, emphasizing the importance of capital recycling to support growth [30][32] Question: Headwinds in U.S. project development - Management indicated no slowdown in solar projects, while acknowledging some permitting slowdowns for onshore wind, but overall projects are progressing [39][40] Question: Realized hydro prices and future expectations - Management expects an increase in realized hydro prices due to high demand and new long-term contracts being layered in [42][43] Question: Capital recycling and repeat customers - Management confirmed that capital recycling activities have become a consistent source of funding, with frameworks established for future sales [44][45] Question: Battery storage development and M&A opportunities - Management highlighted a strong organic development pipeline for batteries, with ongoing evaluations of M&A opportunities in the sector [65][66] Question: Offshore wind opportunities - Management is open to evaluating offshore wind opportunities, particularly in Europe, while ensuring appropriate risk-return profiles [68][70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered $2.01 of FFO per unit, up 10% year-over-year, aligning with long-term growth targets [3][14] - In Q4 2025, FFO was $346 million, a 14% increase year-over-year, or $0.51 per unit [14] - For the full year, FFO totaled $1,334 million, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The hydroelectric segment reported FFO of $607 million, up 19% from the prior year, driven by solid generation in Canada and Colombia [15] - The wind and solar segments generated a combined FFO of $648 million, supported by acquisitions and investments, though offset by prior year gains [15] - Distributed energy storage and sustainable solutions achieved record results of $614 million, up almost 90% from the previous year, driven by development growth and strong performance at Westinghouse [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The energy demand environment is experiencing unprecedented growth, driven by electrification and industrial activity, with a shift from energy transition to energy addition [5][6] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the demand for renewable energy, particularly in solar and onshore wind, with a target of delivering roughly 10 gigawatts of new capacity per year by 2027 [7][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on scaling development of low-cost, fast-to-market solar and onshore wind to meet rising power demand [7] - Investments in hydro and nuclear are emphasized for their reliability and scale, with significant contracts signed with major corporates [8][9] - The company aims to enhance its capital recycling program, generating significant liquidity and supporting growth initiatives [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the strategic priority of power globally, with energy demand rising at an unprecedented pace [5] - The company is optimistic about the future, expecting to enter a period of outsized earnings growth backed by strong partnerships and access to capital [12] - Management noted that the scarcity value of hydroelectric power is at an all-time high, with long-term contracts expected to drive higher power prices [39][40] Other Important Information - The company ended 2025 with $4.6 billion in available liquidity and reaffirmed its BBB+ investment-grade credit rating [16][17] - A 5% increase in annual distribution to $1.468 per unit was announced, marking 15 consecutive years of annual distribution growth [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Microsoft Framework Agreement projects - Management noted that demand from corporates, including Microsoft, is at an all-time high, with expectations for growth to accelerate through 2030 [26][27] Question: Commentary on balance sheet and liquidity - Management expressed comfort with maintaining liquidity around the $4 billion mark, emphasizing the importance of capital recycling to support growth [28][29][30] Question: Headwinds in U.S. project development - Management indicated no slowdown in solar projects, while acknowledging some permitting delays for onshore wind, but overall progress is being made [35][36] Question: Realized hydro prices and future expectations - Management expects an increase in realized hydro prices due to high demand and new long-term contracts coming online [38][40] Question: Capital recycling and repeat customers - Management confirmed that repeat customers streamline the asset recycling process, with expectations for continued growth in this area [41][42] Question: Battery storage development and revenue model - Management highlighted a strong organic development pipeline for batteries, with a shift towards long-term contracted revenue models [61][64] Question: Offshore wind opportunities - Management is evaluating offshore wind opportunities, particularly in Europe, but will only pursue if the risk-return profile is favorable [66][67] Question: Impact of PJM backstop auction on development - Management views the PJM auction as a positive reflection of energy demand, which aligns with the company's development pipeline [70][72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered $2.01 of FFO per unit, up 10% year-over-year, aligning with long-term growth targets [3][13] - In Q4, FFO was $346 million, up 14% year-over-year, or $0.51 per unit [13] - For the full year, FFO totaled $1,334 million, reflecting a 10% increase year-on-year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The hydroelectric segment reported FFO of $607 million, a 19% increase from the prior year, driven by solid generation in Canada and Colombia [15] - The wind and solar segments generated a combined FFO of $648 million, supported by acquisitions and investments, though offset by previous gains from asset sales [15] - Distributed energy storage and sustainable solutions achieved record results of $614 million, up almost 90% from the prior year, driven by growth from development and acquisitions [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed contracts for over 9 GW of generation capacity, with over 8 GW of new capacity brought online globally, marking a record for the business [4] - The energy demand environment is shifting from energy transition to energy addition, with significant growth driven by electrification and industrial activity [5][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on scaling development of low-cost, fast-to-market solar and onshore wind to meet rising power demand, targeting a run rate of roughly 10 GW of new capacity per year by 2027 [7] - Investments in hydro and nuclear are emphasized, with a strategic focus on large-scale baseload generation and flexibility [8][9] - The company aims to capitalize on the growing demand for battery storage, expecting to quadruple its capacity to over 10 GW in the next three years [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the strategic priority of power globally, with rising energy demand creating a need for substantial new generation capacity [5][6] - The company is well-positioned to deliver comprehensive energy solutions across markets, anticipating outsized earnings growth and significant value creation for unitholders [12] - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a strong balance sheet and liquidity, with $4.6 billion available at year-end [16][17] Other Important Information - The company announced a 5% increase in annual distribution to $1.468 per unit, marking 15 consecutive years of annual distribution growth of at least 5% [24] - A record $8.9 billion was deployed or committed in growth, with significant asset recycling generating $4.5 billion in proceeds [4][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Microsoft Framework Agreement and capacity cadence - Management noted that demand from corporates, including Microsoft, is at an all-time high, with expected growth in capacity from 2026 onwards [26][27] Question: Commentary on liquidity position and ratios - Management expressed comfort with maintaining liquidity around the $4 billion mark, emphasizing the importance of capital recycling to support growth [28][30] Question: Headwinds in U.S. project development - Management indicated no slowdown in solar development, while acknowledging some permitting delays for onshore wind projects [36][38] Question: Realized hydro prices and future expectations - Management expects an increase in hydro power prices due to high demand and new long-term contracts being layered in [39][41] Question: Capital recycling and repeat customers - Management confirmed that capital recycling activities have become a consistent source of funding, with frameworks established for future asset sales [42][44] Question: Battery storage development and M&A opportunities - Management highlighted a strong organic development pipeline for batteries, with a focus on long-term contracts rather than merchant arbitrage [62][66] Question: Offshore wind opportunities - Management is evaluating offshore wind opportunities, particularly in Europe, while ensuring appropriate risk-return profiles [67][68]

Core Insights - Brookfield Renewable Partners is positioned as a key player in supplying renewable energy to major AI companies like Microsoft and Google, ensuring their data centers remain operational [1][4] - The company has a diversified portfolio of clean energy assets, including solar, wind, hydroelectric, battery, and nuclear power, which supports its long-term power supply contracts and reliable cash flows [2][3] Company Overview - Brookfield Renewable Partners owns a globally diversified portfolio of clean energy assets, making it a one-stop shop for companies seeking renewable or zero-carbon power [2] - The average contract length for power supply agreements is 13 years, with approximately 70% indexed for inflation, providing stability and reliability [3] AI Opportunity - Brookfield Renewable Partners has secured contracts to supply Google with 3 gigawatts and Microsoft with 10.5 gigawatts of power for their data centers, indicating significant future growth potential [4] - The company anticipates capital investments between $9 billion and $10 billion over the next five years to support these developments [4] Financial Performance - The company has a market capitalization of $8.8 billion, with a current price of $28.81 and a dividend yield of 5.18% [6] - Expected growth in funds from operations is projected at 10% or more annually, supporting a long-term distribution increase of 5% to 9% per year [6] Investment in Westinghouse - Brookfield Renewable Partners' investment in Westinghouse is noteworthy, especially with a new $80 billion deal with the U.S. government for nuclear reactors, which could enhance revenue streams as demand for electricity rises [7] Alternative Investment Option - For investors preferring a corporate structure, Brookfield Renewable Corporation offers a similar investment opportunity, albeit with a lower yield of 3.7% due to high institutional demand [8]

Company Overview - Vistra Energy has a market cap of $54.2 billion and a diversified generation portfolio that includes natural gas, nuclear, and renewable assets [4] - Constellation Energy operates the largest nuclear fleet in the U.S., providing 24/7 baseload electricity essential for data centers [13] - Vertiv specializes in cooling systems, power distribution, and monitoring equipment for data centers, benefiting from the growth in AI infrastructure [8] Financial Performance - Vistra's recent quarterly earnings dropped 66.7% year-over-year, with revenue falling 20.9%, but forward-looking metrics indicate potential recovery driven by AI demand [1] - Vistra generated $5.21 billion in EBITDA over the trailing twelve months, with an operating cash flow of $3.99 billion [2] - Constellation's Q3 2025 revenue reached $7.18 billion, with a net income of $930 million and an EBITDA of $5.95 billion [14] - Vertiv's Q3 2025 revenue was $2.68 billion, up 29% year-over-year, with a net income of $398.5 million, reflecting a 122% earnings growth [9] Market Trends - The AI revolution is creating a significant demand for reliable and scalable power infrastructure, with data centers requiring substantial energy [6] - Training AI models like GPT-4 consumes as much electricity as 10,000 U.S. homes in a year, indicating a data center energy boom [6] - Companies like Constellation and Vistra are positioned to benefit from the increasing need for clean, reliable power for AI applications [7] Valuation Metrics - Vistra's trailing P/E is 58x, but the forward P/E is more reasonable at 16x, with earnings expected to jump 49% this year [2] - Constellation's P/E stands at 33x, reflecting market confidence in sustained demand for nuclear power [16] - Vertiv's valuation is aggressive at 68x trailing earnings, but a forward P/E of 33x suggests continued growth potential [11] Investment Outlook - Vistra could present a long-term opportunity if AI power demand continues to grow in Texas, despite recent earnings headwinds [1] - Constellation is viewed as a leader due to its ability to provide reliable baseload power, essential for AI data centers [17] - Vertiv shows the highest growth rates but faces execution risks as it scales production [17]

Core Viewpoint - Vistra's stock has declined approximately 24% from its peak, amid broader market concerns related to tariffs and potential corrections [2][3] Company Performance - Vistra is positioned as a significant beneficiary in the AI race, particularly with its involvement in power projects that support AI data centers [3][4] - The company is actively expanding its nuclear and gas power projects to meet the growing energy demands associated with AI [4][6] Valuation Metrics - Vistra's shares are currently trading at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 60, which may appear expensive [5] - However, the forward P/E ratio is significantly lower at 17.4, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued in the context of future earnings growth [6][8] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts remain bullish on Vistra, with some viewing the stock as a good investment at around $165, and Scotiabank setting a price target of $293, indicating a potential upside of 78% [7][8] - The ongoing data center boom and nuclear power renaissance support the argument that Vistra's valuation may not be as high as perceived [7]