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做空英伟达的时机到了么?
美股研究社· 2025-05-02 10:26
Core Viewpoint - The market reaction to DeepSeek's rise should not lead to the unreasonable selling of Nvidia stocks, as the situation is not as dire as perceived [1]. Group 1: Market Perception and Competition - Prior to the release of DeepSeek's R1 model, there was a widespread belief that China lagged significantly behind the US in AI, with Eric Schmidt stating a 2-3 year lead for the US due to chip bans and investment disparities [2]. - DeepSeek's previous models failed to gain traction, but the R1 model demonstrated that advanced models could be developed using older GPUs, which could lead to increased GPU demand due to wider AI adoption [3]. - Nvidia's sales distribution shows that only 47% of its revenue comes from the US, indicating the importance of other regions like Singapore, which serves as a billing hub rather than a primary shipping destination [6][7]. Group 2: Risks and Developments - The ban on Nvidia's H20 and A100 chips for China poses a risk, as DeepSeek reportedly owns around 10,000 A100 chips, acquired through significant investments from the High-Flyer Quant Fund [9]. - China is investing heavily in developing its own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, which could potentially account for about 20% of Nvidia's sales if successful [10]. - DeepSeek is reportedly using Huawei's Ascend 910B chips for its upcoming R2 model, which could disrupt Nvidia's market position if confirmed [12][15]. Group 3: Future Implications - If DeepSeek announces the use of Huawei chips for R2, it could lead to a significant drop in Nvidia's stock price, similar to the reaction following the R1 release [16]. - The potential for Nvidia's stock to decline is high, given the current market dynamics and the possibility of DeepSeek's shift to local chip suppliers [17].
AI芯片,需求如何?
半导体行业观察· 2025-04-05 02:35
Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of GPU cloud providers outside of traditional giants like AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, highlighting a significant shift in AI infrastructure [1] - Parasail, founded by Mike Henry and Tim Harris, aims to connect enterprises with GPU computing resources, likening its service to that of a utility company [2] AI and Automation Context - Customers are seeking simplified and scalable solutions for deploying AI models, often overwhelmed by the rapid release of new open-source models [2] - Parasail leverages the growth of AI inference providers and on-demand GPU access, partnering with companies like CoreWeave and Lambda Labs to create a contract-free GPU capacity aggregation [2] Cost Advantages - Parasail claims that companies transitioning from OpenAI or Anthropic can save 15 to 30 times on costs, while savings compared to other open-source providers range from 2 to 5 times [3] - The company offers various Nvidia GPUs, with pricing ranging from $0.65 to $3.25 per hour [3] Deployment Network Challenges - Building a deployment network is complex due to the varying architectures of GPU clouds, which can differ in computation, storage, and networking [5] - Kubernetes can address many challenges, but its implementation varies across GPU clouds, complicating the orchestration process [6] Orchestration and Resilience - Henry emphasizes the importance of a resilient Kubernetes control plane that can manage multiple GPU clouds globally, allowing for efficient workload management [7] - The challenge of matching and optimizing workloads is significant due to the diversity of AI models and GPU configurations [8] Growth and Future Plans - Parasail has seen increasing demand, with its annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding seven figures, and plans to expand its team, particularly in engineering roles [8] - The company recognizes a paradox in the market where there is a perceived shortage of GPUs despite available capacity, indicating a need for better optimization and customer connection [9]