Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Products, specifically in the collectibles and IP (Intellectual Property) market - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$33.82 billion as of January 5, 2026 Key Points Sales Performance and Market Expectations - Pop Mart's North America (NA) sales in 4Q25 are expected to be 25-30% lower than 3Q25, with total sales for 2025 projected to be below Rmb7 billion [3][4] - The market consensus for NA sales in 2025 is likely too low, with estimates around low Rmb6 billion [9] - The company anticipates Rmb7.1 billion in NA sales for 2025, with expectations of a rebound in 2026 driven by new product launches and improved sales from non-Labubu products [4][9] Product and IP Development - Labubu, a key product line, is expected to see enhanced designs and more launches in 2026, contributing to sales growth [4] - Non-Labubu products have shown significant growth, with sales increasing by 131% in 1H25 and projected to rise by approximately 120% in 2H25 [16] - The company has launched around 200 products in 2025, with only about 10 being Labubu-related, indicating a diversification strategy [16] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2026 are estimated at Rmb47.88 billion, representing a 26% year-over-year increase [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2026 are Rmb11.63, with a projected P/E ratio of 15.3 [6] - The stock is currently trading at HK$196.20, with a price target of HK$325.00, indicating a potential upside of 66% [6] Market Dynamics and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned to capture the growing global "kidult" market, which is valued at over USD100 billion [24] - Pop Mart's business model is asset-light with high return on equity (ROE), supported by direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales and strong pricing power [25] - The shift back to offline sales is seen as a positive development, enhancing customer engagement and brand loyalty [12] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include uncertainties related to new product launches, potential inability to maintain product quality, and the impact of counterfeits on brand value [29][30][33] - Pricing management is crucial, as raising average selling prices (ASPs) could alienate core customers [32] - The company must effectively convert strong consumer interest in Labubu into sales across other IPs to sustain growth [34] Investment Thesis - Pop Mart is viewed as a top pick due to its potential to evolve into a global IP collectibles platform, leveraging its unique business model and strong brand equity in China and Asia [35][37] - The company is expected to deliver strong earnings growth, driven by successful product launches and expansion into new markets [35][37] Conclusion - Pop Mart is well-positioned for future growth, with a strong focus on product diversification and market expansion. However, it must navigate various risks to maintain its growth trajectory and investor confidence.

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the market is overly focused on Pop Mart's high-frequency sales data in the North American market, significantly underestimating the company's true value [1] Group 1: North American Sales Expectations - The widely circulated credit card consumption data suggests that Pop Mart's North American sales in 2025 will be around 6 billion RMB, with a projected decline of 25-30% in Q4 compared to Q3 [2] - Morgan Stanley's analysis predicts that Pop Mart's North American sales in 2025 will be 7.1 billion RMB, with Q4 sales remaining close to Q3 levels [2] - The firm estimates that the average annual sales per store in North America will reach 45-50 million RMB, indicating strong demand as new stores can recover their investment in 1-2 months [2] Group 2: Online and Offline Sales Dynamics - In the first half of the year, online sales accounted for approximately 60% of Pop Mart's North American market, driven further to 60-70% in Q3 due to Labubu pre-sales [3] - Offline sales have a more diverse IP distribution compared to online channels, enhancing opportunities for new IP exploration and cross-selling [3] - The experience in China and the Asia-Pacific region shows that physical stores are essential for cultivating repeat customers, who exhibit more stable purchasing behavior than social media-influenced consumers [3] Group 3: Growth Drivers and IP Diversification - Morgan Stanley highlights that the market is overlooking Pop Mart's sales of older Labubu plush toys in the second half of 2025, with more new products expected in 2026 [4] - The firm identifies the restoration of quarter-on-quarter growth and evidence of IP diversification as key catalysts for improving market sentiment [5] - The company is expected to accelerate growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2026, driven by continuous store openings, new customer acquisition, and product launches [5] Group 4: Long-term Investment Logic - Pop Mart is positioned to capture the growing demand for "kidult" IP products globally, evolving into a global IP collectibles platform [6] - The company's business model is asset-light with high ROE, aiming for long-term high-quality returns while leading the global kidult trend [6] - At the current valuation, Pop Mart trades at approximately 16 times the 2026 P/E ratio, with a 21% profit growth expectation, potentially dropping to 12 times if sales reach 60 billion RMB [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of Pop Mart, a leading player in the "trendy toys" sector, has sparked significant interest in related concept stocks within the A-share market, making the "Guzi economy" a hot topic among investors [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Pop Mart's market capitalization has reached approximately 331.5 billion RMB, placing it among the top 40 companies in the A-share market, surpassing notable firms like Cambricon, Gree Electric, and Mindray Medical [5][8]. - The "trendy toys" trend, driven by Pop Mart, has led to increased attention on related concept stocks, which have become focal points for investors [8][12]. Group 2: Related Concept Stocks - Key related stocks include: - Qingmu Technology: Market cap of 3.3 billion RMB, operates Pop Mart's Tmall flagship store [9]. - Zhongxin Tourism: Market cap of 6.6 billion RMB, serves as a ticketing agent for Pop Mart's city parks [9]. - Han Shuo Technology: Market cap of 1.9 billion RMB, provides electronic price tag systems for Pop Mart's overseas stores [11]. - Wanda Film: Market cap of 24.3 billion RMB, collaborates with Pop Mart on IP projects [11]. - The "Guzi economy" is projected to grow, with China's pan-entertainment toy market expected to exceed 100 billion RMB in 2024 and reach 212.1 billion RMB by 2029 [12]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The "Guzi economy" encompasses a comprehensive industry chain, including upstream IP copyright holders, midstream IP operators responsible for product design and production, and downstream sales channels [14]. - The market for trendy toys is characterized by a diverse range of sales channels, including online platforms and traditional retail, with emerging channels like live-streaming sales gaining traction [14].