North America: Market's estimate is likely too low Pop Mart's stock movements in 4Q25 were highly correlated with high-frequency sales data for North America. The data suggest the company's NA sales in 4Q25 would be 25-30% lower than 3Q25, and 2025 would be meaningfully below Rmb7bn. We also think the market has extrapolated the trend and priced in a sales decline in NA for 2026. We are not able to verify any credit-card-based sales data, but note that it has been widely circulated in the investment communi ...

大摩认为市场过度关注泡泡玛特北美市场的高频销售数据，严重低估了公司的真实价值。 追风交易台消息，1月5日，摩根士丹利Dustin Wei的研究团队发表研报，指出市场对泡泡玛特北美业务 的悲观预期存在严重偏差，投资者过度依赖难以验证的信用卡消费数据，却忽视了泡泡玛特在中国和亚 洲市场的强劲增长动能。 市场基于信用卡数据推算的2025年北美销售额低至60亿元人民币，大摩则预计为71亿元。更重要的是， 研报认为投资者过度关注北美市场和Labubu单一IP，当前公司在中国和亚太地区的基本面强劲，同时 非Labubu IP产品的增长快速。 大摩预计2026年盈利增长达21%。若公司能实现每季度约10%的环比增长，销售额将达到大摩的最乐观 的预期——600亿元人民币销售额及198亿元人民币净利润，这意味着预期盈利增长45-50%。一旦泡泡 玛特开始展现明确的环比增长，股价将出现积极反应。 北美销售预期可能过低 广泛流传的信用卡消费数据显示，泡泡玛特2025年北美销售额仅为60亿元人民币左右的低位。 这些数据显示2025年第四季度北美销售额较第三季度下降25-30%，且市场已将这一趋势外推至2026 年，定价为北美市场将出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of Pop Mart, a leading player in the "trendy toys" sector, has sparked significant interest in related concept stocks within the A-share market, making the "Guzi economy" a hot topic among investors [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Pop Mart's market capitalization has reached approximately 331.5 billion RMB, placing it among the top 40 companies in the A-share market, surpassing notable firms like Cambricon, Gree Electric, and Mindray Medical [5][8]. - The "trendy toys" trend, driven by Pop Mart, has led to increased attention on related concept stocks, which have become focal points for investors [8][12]. Group 2: Related Concept Stocks - Key related stocks include: - Qingmu Technology: Market cap of 3.3 billion RMB, operates Pop Mart's Tmall flagship store [9]. - Zhongxin Tourism: Market cap of 6.6 billion RMB, serves as a ticketing agent for Pop Mart's city parks [9]. - Han Shuo Technology: Market cap of 1.9 billion RMB, provides electronic price tag systems for Pop Mart's overseas stores [11]. - Wanda Film: Market cap of 24.3 billion RMB, collaborates with Pop Mart on IP projects [11]. - The "Guzi economy" is projected to grow, with China's pan-entertainment toy market expected to exceed 100 billion RMB in 2024 and reach 212.1 billion RMB by 2029 [12]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The "Guzi economy" encompasses a comprehensive industry chain, including upstream IP copyright holders, midstream IP operators responsible for product design and production, and downstream sales channels [14]. - The market for trendy toys is characterized by a diverse range of sales channels, including online platforms and traditional retail, with emerging channels like live-streaming sales gaining traction [14].