Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou-W is expected to report Q4 revenue between 38.292 billion to 40.471 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.2% to 14.4% [1][8] - The net profit forecast for Q4 is between 3.886 billion to 4.905 billion RMB, with a year-on-year change of -2.2% to 23.4% [1][8] - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to be between 4.920 billion to 5.727 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.7% to 21.8% [1][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Q4 revenue consensus forecast: 38.292 billion to 40.471 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 39.043 billion RMB, indicating a 10.3% year-on-year increase [3][10] - Q4 net profit consensus forecast: 3.886 billion to 4.905 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 4.588 billion RMB, reflecting a 15.4% year-on-year increase [3][10] - Q4 adjusted net profit consensus forecast: 4.920 billion to 5.727 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 5.405 billion RMB, indicating a 15.0% year-on-year increase [3][10] Recent Performance Insights - Kuaishou-W's Q3 performance showed revenue of 35.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and adjusted net profit growth of 26.3% [5][14] - Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 416 million and Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 731 million, both setting historical highs [5][12] - E-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reached 385 billion RMB, growing 15.2% year-on-year, with the share of general merchandise e-commerce GMV exceeding 32% [5][12] AI and Marketing Innovations - AI technology, particularly AIGC, has enhanced content production and efficiency, improving conversion rates and user trust [5][12] - The OneRec model contributed to a 14.0% increase in online marketing revenue, generating an additional 4% to 5% revenue growth [6][13] - The commercialization of Kuaishou's AI has progressed, with Q3 revenue exceeding 300 million RMB and a nearly 30% reduction in generation costs [7][14]

Summary of Kuaishou Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kuaishou Technology - **Date**: November 20, 2025 - **Current Stock Price**: 64.95 HKD - **Target Price**: 89.00 HKD Key Points Industry and Market Context - Kuaishou's stock price increased by 2% following the release of Q3 2025 earnings, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1% [1][12] - Concerns exist regarding competition from similar models (Google, OpenAI, ByteDance) and potential declines in e-commerce monetization in Q4 2025 and 2026 due to sluggish market growth and increased tax burdens on small businesses [1][12] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 non-GAAP operating profit increased by 56% year-over-year, with operating profit margin rising by 4.4 percentage points [1][12] - Q3 2025 advertising revenue grew by 14% year-over-year, surpassing the 13% growth in Q2 2025, attributed to improved advertising technology [1][12] - The company expects Q4 2025 advertising revenue to maintain a healthy growth rate of 12% year-over-year [1][12] Revenue Guidance and Projections - Kuaishou's revenue guidance for 2025 is set at 1.40 billion USD, which is considered conservative [1][12] - The company is expanding its reach to larger enterprises, increasing the proportion of revenue from this segment from 30% to 40% [1][12] - Projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Kuaishou's revenue from 2026 to 2027 is estimated at 47% due to the large potential market for global video generation [1][12] Capital Expenditure and Profitability - Kuaishou raised its capital expenditure guidance for 2025 from 12 billion CNY to 14 billion CNY, up from 8 billion CNY in 2024 [7][12] - Increased capital expenditure is expected to enhance model capabilities and drive high-margin advertising business growth [7][12] - Despite rising costs from AI and R&D, the company anticipates a 20% increase in net profit for 2026, exceeding market consensus by 7% [7][12] Risks and Challenges - Risks include competition from Douyin and WeChat Channels, regulatory risks from potential content scrutiny, execution risks, and concerns over Tencent's potential divestment [20][12] Valuation and Investment Thesis - The target price of 89 HKD is based on a 14x forward P/E ratio for 2026, with a projected profit CAGR of 21% from 2026 to 2027 [19][12] - Kuaishou's advertising and e-commerce businesses are expected to grow faster than the overall market, with a projected CAGR of 13% for 2026-2027 [18][12] Additional Financial Metrics - Adjusted net profit for FY 2025 is projected at 20.95 billion CNY, with an adjusted EPS of 4.75 CNY [11][12] - Revenue for FY 2025 is expected to reach 142.06 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 11.9% [11][12] Conclusion Kuaishou Technology is positioned for growth with strong advertising revenue performance and strategic investments in AI and advertising technology. However, it faces competitive and regulatory challenges that could impact its future performance. The investment thesis remains positive, supported by a robust target price and growth projections.

Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank predicts Kuaishou-W (01024) will see adjusted profit growth of 16%, 20%, and 18% for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, reflecting higher-than-industry growth in advertising and e-commerce [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Advertising revenue for Kuaishou is expected to grow by 12%, 12%, and 11% from 2025 to 2027, which is above industry growth [2] - E-commerce GMV is projected to increase by 14%, 11%, and 9% during the same period, also surpassing industry growth [2] - Live streaming revenue is forecasted to grow by 6%, 4%, and 3% from 2025 to 2027 [2] - E-commerce revenue is anticipated to rise by 23%, 12%, and 10% over the same fiscal years [2] Group 2: Strategic Insights - Kuaishou has over 700 million monthly active users and stands out due to its decentralized distribution and strong community-driven ecosystem [1] - The company leverages proprietary data to train advanced AI models, enhancing user engagement and creating new revenue streams [1] - The AI image and video generation tools are seen as having significant global monetization potential, with projected revenue reaching 2.7 billion RMB by the fiscal year 2027 [1]