报告导读： AI 的尽头是电力。我们借用了现行网络上极热门的一句话，用以刻画当前在 AI 席卷全球的汹涌浪潮 之下，和能源相关联的商品及其产业与 AI 行业的命运共系共生的格局。有色金属作为在新旧能源更迭的时 代备受瞩目的商品板块，2020 年 4 季度伴随前任美国总统拜登胜选而引发的"有色拜登交易"仍令市场记 忆犹新，彼时清洁能源领域增长带来的消费增量深刻重塑了传统有色金属的需求版图。5 年之后，当全球 光伏新增装机的增速开始式微，远超过传统消费行业增长斜率的 AI 需求是否再次重构有色板块的需求侧， 成为撬动未来供需平衡的下一个重要支点，这是当下有色市场投资人极为关注的问题。 一方面，随着 AI 行业从"算法经济"走向"产业融合"，AI 正从基础层、技术层和应用层等多维度 重塑有色金属需求结构。过去十年 AI 的发展以算法革新和模型突破为主，但随着大模型多模态化、推理需 求爆发式增长，行业重心正从软件优化转向算力、能源、硬件与供应链的全面升级。AI 基础设施投资快速 增长，计算从集中式训练向行业级、场景化的分布式推理延伸，推动 AI 从互联网行业的"应用创新"向制 造、交通、能源等实体部门的"系统性渗透" ...

Summary of Kuaishou Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kuaishou Technology - **Date**: November 20, 2025 - **Current Stock Price**: 64.95 HKD - **Target Price**: 89.00 HKD Key Points Industry and Market Context - Kuaishou's stock price increased by 2% following the release of Q3 2025 earnings, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1% [1][12] - Concerns exist regarding competition from similar models (Google, OpenAI, ByteDance) and potential declines in e-commerce monetization in Q4 2025 and 2026 due to sluggish market growth and increased tax burdens on small businesses [1][12] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 non-GAAP operating profit increased by 56% year-over-year, with operating profit margin rising by 4.4 percentage points [1][12] - Q3 2025 advertising revenue grew by 14% year-over-year, surpassing the 13% growth in Q2 2025, attributed to improved advertising technology [1][12] - The company expects Q4 2025 advertising revenue to maintain a healthy growth rate of 12% year-over-year [1][12] Revenue Guidance and Projections - Kuaishou's revenue guidance for 2025 is set at 1.40 billion USD, which is considered conservative [1][12] - The company is expanding its reach to larger enterprises, increasing the proportion of revenue from this segment from 30% to 40% [1][12] - Projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Kuaishou's revenue from 2026 to 2027 is estimated at 47% due to the large potential market for global video generation [1][12] Capital Expenditure and Profitability - Kuaishou raised its capital expenditure guidance for 2025 from 12 billion CNY to 14 billion CNY, up from 8 billion CNY in 2024 [7][12] - Increased capital expenditure is expected to enhance model capabilities and drive high-margin advertising business growth [7][12] - Despite rising costs from AI and R&D, the company anticipates a 20% increase in net profit for 2026, exceeding market consensus by 7% [7][12] Risks and Challenges - Risks include competition from Douyin and WeChat Channels, regulatory risks from potential content scrutiny, execution risks, and concerns over Tencent's potential divestment [20][12] Valuation and Investment Thesis - The target price of 89 HKD is based on a 14x forward P/E ratio for 2026, with a projected profit CAGR of 21% from 2026 to 2027 [19][12] - Kuaishou's advertising and e-commerce businesses are expected to grow faster than the overall market, with a projected CAGR of 13% for 2026-2027 [18][12] Additional Financial Metrics - Adjusted net profit for FY 2025 is projected at 20.95 billion CNY, with an adjusted EPS of 4.75 CNY [11][12] - Revenue for FY 2025 is expected to reach 142.06 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 11.9% [11][12] Conclusion Kuaishou Technology is positioned for growth with strong advertising revenue performance and strategic investments in AI and advertising technology. However, it faces competitive and regulatory challenges that could impact its future performance. The investment thesis remains positive, supported by a robust target price and growth projections.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 35.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%. Adjusted net profit was 4.99 billion RMB, up 26% year-on-year [10][4] - The company is focusing on AI to drive growth in its core business, with significant advancements in its AI video product, Keling, which achieved quarterly revenue exceeding 300 million RMB [4][32] - The company has improved its gross margin to 55.1%, primarily due to enhanced server efficiency and reduced content costs [10][4] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue breakdown: Domestic revenue was 34.4 billion RMB (up 15% YoY), while overseas revenue was 1.15 billion RMB (down 13% YoY) [10][4] - The adjusted profit margin for Q3 2025 was 14.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [10][4] - Research and development expenses for Q3 2025 were 3.7 billion RMB, an 18% increase year-on-year [10][4] User Engagement Metrics - The total monthly active users (MAU) for Q3 2025 was 731 million, a 2% increase year-on-year, while daily active users (DAU) reached 416 million, also up 2% year-on-year [2][17] - The average daily usage time per user was 134 minutes, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [2][17] Commercialization Efforts - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 15% year-on-year, with revenue from live e-commerce increasing by 41% [3][23] - Advertising revenue for Q3 2025 was 20.1 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year, driven by advancements in AI technology [3][28] - Live streaming revenue reached 9.6 billion RMB, showing a 3% year-on-year increase [3][28] Future Outlook - The company has raised its revenue forecast for Keling to 1 billion RMB for the year, driven by successful AI advancements [4][32] - The adjusted profit projections for 2025-2027 are 20.7 billion RMB, 23.5 billion RMB, and 26.6 billion RMB respectively [4][33]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a stable core business, with AI empowering advertising and e-commerce to accelerate growth in the second half of the year, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 and a target price of HKD 102.81, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] E-commerce Performance - Q3 e-commerce revenue exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 21%, surpassing the previous forecast of 16%, driven by value-added services such as influencer distribution and marketing management [1] - The company anticipates a Q4 e-commerce GMV growth of 13%, with commission and internal advertising revenue expected to grow by 17% and 13% respectively [1] Advertising Growth - Domestic advertising growth remains robust, with AI support expected to sustain long-term growth; Q1-Q4 year-on-year growth rates are projected at 6%, 12%, 16%, and 14% respectively, with a 15% increase in the second half of the year [1] - The company reported a positive outlook on AI empowerment, estimating that OneRec contributed approximately 4%-5% to Q3 revenue [1] Financial Projections - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance for Q3 to over USD 300 million, with an annual target of USD 1.4 billion, indicating stable Q4 revenue driven by price reductions [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at CNY 204 billion, 225 billion, and 259 billion respectively, reflecting an upward revision for 2025 and a slight downward adjustment for 2026 due to increased investments in AI and core business [2][3] Valuation - Using a PE valuation method, the company is assigned an 18x PE for 2026, resulting in a reasonable value of CNY 404.8 billion, equivalent to HKD 444.5 billion, with a target price of HKD 102.81 per share, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 102.81 HKD per share, based on a PE valuation method [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The company's e-commerce commission revenue showed strong performance in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 21%, driven by value-added services such as influencer distribution and marketing management [7]. - AI empowerment is expected to enhance advertising efficiency, contributing to stable growth in domestic advertising revenue, projected to grow by 15% in the second half of the year [7]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards, reflecting positive trends in e-commerce and controlled sales expenses [3][7]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 182.87 billion CNY, with further increases to 214.57 billion CNY in 2026 and 247.70 billion CNY in 2027 [3][8]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 126.90 billion CNY in 2024 to 142.05 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.9% [3][8]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 54.6% in 2024 to 56.8% in 2027, indicating better cost management and operational efficiency [3][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at 4,048 billion CNY based on a PE ratio of 18x for 2026, translating to a market cap of 4,445 billion HKD [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 3.56 CNY in 2024 to 5.77 CNY in 2027, reflecting strong profit growth [3][8].

真故研究室 . 真问题，更商业 背后是20万个提示词。 作者/龚正 编辑/脸叔 来源/真故研究室 (ID：zhengulab) 部 分 网 友 对 AI 做 的 视 频 ， 认 知 和 接 受 度 仅 限 于 两 年 前 风 靡 网 络 的 " 甄 嬛 吃 汉 堡 " ， 作 为 一种片段式的鬼畜文化来猎奇娱乐。 最近，在B站上出现了一个长达近7分钟的"纯AI综艺"，讲全世界6位厨师如何把灭绝了 6 5 0 0 万 年 的 远 古 沧 龙 做 成 6 道 菜 ， 收 获 了 7 0 0 多 万 点 击 。 有 人 压 根 没 看 出 来 这 是 AI 做 的，还以为是美国烹饪竞技真人秀《地狱厨房》出了续集。 以下文章来源于真故研究室 ，作者龚正 这部AI综艺对行业内最大的启发是：加入了作者主体性的AI长视频内容，是否会成为 各平台UP主和创作达人，一个升级版的内容赛道。在这之前，据说有5 0 %的网友对AI 做的内容是"排斥的"。 科技综艺，骗过700万网友 沧 龙 是 一 种 海 生 爬 行 动 物 ， 有 " 史 前 水 生 蜥 蜴 " 之 称 ， 有 时 候 凶 残 起 来 连 同 伴 也 吃 进 肚 ...

Core Insights - Kuaishou's commercialization is transitioning from "traffic-driven" to "efficiency-driven," with AI efficiency improvements becoming a central narrative for the coming years [2][3] - Kuaishou's foundational business, particularly its e-commerce segment, is undervalued, with monetization rates lagging behind other e-commerce platforms, necessitating a gradual increase in monetization without burdening merchants [2] - The stability of Kuaishou's fundamentals facilitates the upcoming AI transformation [2] Group 1: AI Transformation and Advertising Efficiency - AI has begun to transform Kuaishou's advertising business, initially improving monetization efficiency, a process expected to continue for over a year [3] - The optimization of Kuaishou's existing business model through AI has enhanced efficiency, offsetting additional costs from new technologies and creating new profit opportunities [3] - The advertising revenue formula indicates that revenue is closely tied to both "traffic" and "efficiency," highlighting the importance of improving monetization rates [7] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Response - In Q3 2025, Kuaishou's traffic grew by 5.8%, while advertising revenue surged by 14%, indicating a significant improvement in monetization efficiency [9] - The upgrade of Kuaishou's underlying recommendation and advertising systems to an AI-driven architecture has been a key factor in this revenue growth [10] - The shift towards AI-driven solutions, such as OneRec and G4RL, has improved targeting and resource allocation, leading to higher advertising spend from the same traffic [11][12] Group 3: Market Valuation and AI Bubble Concerns - Kuaishou's stock has seen significant appreciation, with a peak increase of over 200% this year, reflecting positive market sentiment towards its AI initiatives [17] - Concerns about an AI bubble have emerged, with skepticism regarding the sustainability of high capital expenditures without corresponding profit returns [20][21] - Despite aggressive capital spending, Kuaishou's EBITDA margin has improved, indicating that AI investments are enhancing operational stability rather than becoming a financial burden [23]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou's Q3 performance shows a revenue increase of 13% to 35.6 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 1% [1] - Adjusted net profit rose by 26% to 5 billion, surpassing expectations by 2.3% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from live streaming, advertising, and e-commerce grew by 3%, 14%, and 41% year-on-year, respectively [1][2] - Advertising revenue in Q3 increased by 14%, slightly above expectations, with a 16% increase when excluding overseas revenue [2] Business Outlook - Management anticipates revenue could reach 1.4 billion USD by 2025 [1] - Q4 advertising revenue is expected to grow by 13%, while overall capital expenditure is projected to rise by 2 billion to 14 billion [1] AI and Technology Developments - The Kuaishou Turbo 2.5 update has solidified its position among the top global technologies, with significant enhancements in text understanding and sequence control [2] - AI tools have improved operational efficiency, with over 99% of content error reviews and over 70% of user inquiries handled by AI [2] E-commerce Performance - E-commerce and other revenues accelerated by 41% year-on-year, with GMV increasing by 15% [2] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, Kuaishou invested 18 billion in platform traffic incentives, achieving performance in line with expectations [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted by -0.6%, 0.6%, and 2.4%, primarily due to a slowdown in e-commerce consumption [2] - Target price has been raised to 89.4 HKD, reflecting anticipated revenue contributions from Kuaishou's AI developments [2]

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations with revenue of 35.6 billion yuan, a 14% year-on-year increase, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 4.99 billion yuan, slightly above the forecast of 4.82 billion yuan [1][2] Revenue Growth - Q3 2025 advertising revenue accelerated with a 14% year-on-year increase, driven by technological improvements in full-site promotion and UAX, enhancing conversion efficiency [1] - Total GMV for Q3 2025 grew by 15% to 385 billion yuan, with over 32% of GMV coming from the general merchandise category, which outpaced the overall market growth [1] AI Strategy and Implementation - The AI strategy is progressing, with the multi-modal foundational model generating over 300 million yuan in revenue during Q3, a significant increase from previous quarters [2] - AI models have enhanced advertising and e-commerce operations, contributing to a 4-5% increase in domestic advertising revenue and a nearly 5% rise in search volume for e-commerce [2] Cost Management - The company demonstrated strong cost control in Q3 2025, with management expenses significantly lower than expected, primarily due to reduced SBC costs [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 4 percentage points to 29.3%, attributed to improved marketing efficiency [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The Non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 3% to 20.6 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast was lowered by 7% to 22 billion yuan due to AI capital expenditure [3] - The current price corresponds to 12.5/11.5 times the Non-IFRS P/E for 2025/2026, with a target price of 89 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 40% [3]

3Q25管理费用大幅低于该行预期，该行判断主要因SBC费用低于预期。销售费率同降4ppt至29.3%，公 司表示主要系营销提效。海外市场方面，经营层面巴西电商成交规模和订单数量3Q25同比增长。 3Q25广告收入同增14%(2QYoY+13%)，该行认为技术层面主要系全站推广与UAX(全自动投放)共同提 升投放转化效率，推动内外循环增长。拆分看：外循环主要受生活服务、内容消费行业等驱动;内循环 通过全站推广产品升级以提升商家营销投放意愿。电商方面：3Q25总GMV同增15%，其中泛货架GMV 占比超32%，增速超大盘;短视频电商GMV健康增长。公司表示3Q25电商活跃用户复购频次提升，粘性 增强。直播3Q25稳健同增2.5%。 AI战略持续迈进，技术落地驱动主业收入增长 1)AI多模态基础模型方面，可灵在3Q实现模型迭代、对B端的服务升级，季度内收入超3亿元(1/2Q为 1.5/2.5亿元)，公司预计可灵收入全年达1.4亿美元(8月指引全年1.25亿美元)。2)AI大模型对快手广告、 电商业务赋能加强，其中：广告方面，模型技术(尤其是OneRec应用，亦有生成式强化学习出价模型 G4RL协同提效)带来3Q25 ...