快手 20250826 可灵与字节跳动即梦之间有哪些差距？ 尽管即梦拥有较高用户数，但从净收入除以日活（up 值）指标来看，可灵无论 是国内还是海外产品都明显优于即梦，并未显示出差距收窄趋势。此外，在产 品功能完善程度上，可灵早已推出首尾帧功能及多模态编辑功能，而这些都是 即梦尚未完全追赶上的领域。这些差异反映了两者在底层技术能力及视频生成 领域深耕程度上的不同。 摘要 快手"可灵"AI 视频生成模型技术领先，国内性能第一，国际第二，主 要优势在于数据积累、算法积淀和组织结构，使其在语义遵循、静态画 面效果和动态效果方面表现出色。 可灵商业化进展迅速，月活跃用户数增长显著，已与数千家企业客户建 立合作，专业创作者为主要付费群体，应用场景涵盖游戏和影视制作， 3 月年化收入突破 1 亿美元，第二季度收入超 2.5 亿元人民币。 快手积极应用大模型技术赋能内容和商业生态，例如，端到端生成式推 荐模型"one rui"显著提升了用户停留时长，并已承接快手及快手极速 版双端 25%左右线上流量。 快手电商业务增长稳健，第二季度 GMV 增长约 18%，高质量买家消费 金额显著提升，表明电商业务进入高质量增长阶段，同时 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 今日焦点 | 全球宏观 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 9 月降息大门敞开—2025 | 杰克逊霍尔央行年会 | 宏观策略 | | 点评 | | | | 李少金 | Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | 2025 年 8 月 22 日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会并 发表演讲。从整体基调及市场的反应来看，鲍威尔言论"偏鸽"，主要 体现在：1）就业市场阶段性下行风险>通胀上行风险；2）因而需要调整 货币政策—即为 9 月降息敞开大门。同时，鲍威尔也宣布了货币政策框 架调整，核心为由平均通胀目标制（AIT）改为 2%的灵活通胀目标制度， 并取消通胀"补偿"。 就业市场数据高估等因素使得美联储数据依赖的政策路径更具挑战性， 也是鲍威尔转鸽的主要因素，而并非出自于白宫的压力。关税带来的滞 后性的通胀影响需要时间显现，因而短期的通胀影响似乎可控，劳动力 市场的阶段性下行风险则更为急迫。此外，关税及移民政策收紧造成的 劳动力市场下行，亦对通胀有抑制作用，而这种通胀立场的论调实则也 为 9 月降息提供支持。 中期来 ...

2025年08月25日 证券研究报告 | 人工智能行业专题（11） 探究模型能力与应用的进展和边界 行业研究 · 行业专题 互联网 · 互联网II 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：张伦可 证券分析师：陈淑媛 证券分析师：刘子谭 证券分析师：张昊晨 0755-81982651 021-60375431 liuzitan@guosen.com.cn zhanghaochen1@guosen.com.cn zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn chenshuyuan@guosen.com.cn S0980525060001 S0980525010001 S0980521120004 S0980524030003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 报告摘要 Ø 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、广告增长不及预期风险、行业竞争加剧风险、AI技术进展不及预期风险等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 Ø 本篇报告主要针对海内外模型发展、探究模型能力与应用的进展和边界。我们认为当前海外模型呈现差异化发展，企业调用考虑性价比。当前 OpenAI在技术路径上相对领先，聚焦强化推理与专业 ...

机构：华泰证券 研究员：夏路路/丁骄琬 快手2Q 业绩：营收同增13%至350 亿，高于VA 一致预期2% (下同)。毛利率同比改善0.3pct 至55.7%， 经调整净利润同增20%至56 亿（超预期11%）。分业务看，直播、广告、电商收入同比分别变动8%、 13%、26%，广告方面，我们预期3Q 广告同比增长13%，弱于一致预期16%，主系海外广告受监管影响 （广告收入占比中位数）；当前货架场景广告位正加速商业化，内循环广告货币化率有望持续提升。我 们预期可灵25 年收入或达10亿+，2B 订阅方案有望于3Q 推出，推动B 端商业化加速。我们持续看好快 手在AI 应用场景的长期渗透率提升。维持"买入"评级。 可灵商业化加速落地，新品"可灵画布"驱动B 端渗透率2Q 可灵收入2.5 亿元，推理层面毛利率已转正。 管理层指引25 年收入为1.25 亿美元，Capex 指引从100 亿上提至120 亿（去年80 亿）。我们认为可灵2B 端变现加速，专业编辑工具迭代有望持续驱动渗透率提升。5 月可灵上线2.1 版本后，部分产品价格有 所下调，在细节把控和内容一致性方面进步显著。3Q 将推出"工作室会员订阅"，面向 ...

Daily Spotlight 22 August 2025 Michael MENG (852) 3988 6433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance | | Last close | % 1D | % YTD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 25,105 | (0.2) | 25.1 | | HSCEI | 8,975 | (0.4) | 23.1 | | HSCCI | 4,360 | 0.3 | 15.3 | | MSCI HK | 13,388 | (0.0) | 26.7 | | MSCI CHINA | 82 | (0.0) | 26.4 | | FTSE CHINA A50 | 14,465 | 0.5 | 7.0 | | CSI 300 | 4,288 | 0.4 | 9.0 | | TWSE | 23,962 | 1.4 | 4.0 | | SENSEX | 81,858 | 0.3 | 4.8 | | NIKKEI 225 | 42,610 | (0.6) | 6.8 | | KOSPI | ...

证券研究报告 快手-W (1024 HK) 港股通 2Q 业绩超预期，可灵 B 端商业化在即 2025 年 8 月 22 日│中国香港 互联网 快手 2Q 业绩：营收同增 13%至 350 亿，高于 VA 一致预期 2% (下同)。毛 利率同比改善 0.3pct 至 55.7%，经调整净利润同增 20%至 56 亿（超预期 11%）。分业务看，直播、广告、电商收入同比分别变动 8%、13%、26%， 广告方面，我们预期 3Q 广告同比增长 13%，弱于一致预期 16%，主系海 外广告受监管影响（广告收入占比中位数）；当前货架场景广告位正加速商 业化，内循环广告货币化率有望持续提升。我们预期可灵 25 年收入或达 10 亿+，2B 订阅方案有望于 3Q 推出，推动 B 端商业化加速。我们持续看好快 手在 AI 应用场景的长期渗透率提升。维持"买入"评级。 可灵商业化加速落地，新品"可灵画布"驱动 B 端渗透率 2Q 可灵收入 2.5 亿元，推理层面毛利率已转正。管理层指引 25 年收入为 1.25 亿美元，Capex 指引从 100 亿上提至 120 亿（去年 80 亿）。我们认 为可灵 2B 端变现加速，专业 ...

Group 1 - The media and film industry once thrived in the capital market, with the media sector rising 172% in 2015, becoming the best-performing industry that year [2][3] - Following the release of the new policies, film stocks surged, with companies like Mango Super Media and Ciweng Media hitting their limits [3][4] - Despite the recent policy boost, the capital market remains skeptical about the long-term recovery of film stocks, which have seen a decline of over 50% since 2016 [4][6] Group 2 - Major film companies like Wanda Film and Huayi Brothers have experienced stock declines of over 80%, while companies focused on long dramas like Ciweng Media have seen declines of over 70% [6][7] - Mango Super Media, despite a 15-fold increase in stock price since its listing in 2015, has seen a 70% drop from its peak in 2021, with revenue and net profit both declining significantly in 2024 [8][9] - The overall industry is facing a profit volatility issue, with only a few companies like Huayi Brothers and Beijing Culture showing positive net profit growth in 2024 [11][12] Group 3 - The new policies have relaxed content restrictions and improved review efficiency, which could potentially benefit production companies and enhance the quality and efficiency of industry output [24][26][28] - The short drama market has rapidly grown, surpassing 500 billion in 2024, accounting for 70% of the long drama market, indicating a shift in viewer preferences [30][31][32] - The supply side of the industry is under pressure, with a 73% decrease in the number of TV dramas approved for release over the past decade [36][39] Group 4 - The introduction of AI technology in video production and advertising is expected to empower companies like Mango Super Media, potentially transforming the industry's cost structure and investment returns [43][45] - The film industry is navigating through a complex landscape of regulatory changes, content ecology, and technological advancements, which will shape its future [46][47] - The ongoing decline in supply and the need for capital reinvestment are critical for the industry's recovery and long-term growth [47]

基于可灵的推出和电商的适度增长，该行对快手预测进行微调，将目标价从67港元上调至83港元，维 持"跑赢大市"评级。 里昂发表报告，预计快手第二季度将实现稳健增长，在线营销收入和经调整EBIT分别按年增长12%和 15%，达到197亿元和50亿元。得益于货架模式电商的扩张和以旧换新政策的推动，该行预测GMV将按 年稳定增长13.5%。另外，该行预计可灵收入增长超预期，第二季收入料为3亿元。可灵以高质量的AI 生成视频和极具竞争力的价格吸引了全球专业用户，已成为新的收入驱动力。 ...

"快手仍是最被低估的AI股"。摩根大通研报大幅上调快手目标价并重申其为中国数字娱乐板块首选 股，核心逻辑是可灵AI业务高速增长和核心广告业务被低估。该行将可灵AI视频生成业务收入预期大 幅上调61%，2026-2027年广告和电商佣金收入年复合增长率预计13%。 摩根大通8月12日发布的研报写道，"快手仍是最被低估的AI股"。该行将快手科技目标价从71港元大 幅上调至88港元，上行空间达22%，并重申快手为中国数字娱乐板块首选股。报告强调，快手"不光 关乎（AI大模型）可灵"，其核心广告业务增速加快以及人工智能对广告的提振同样被低估。 可灵业务前景被大幅上调 摩根大通对快手旗下AI视频生成工具可灵的增长前景展现出强烈信心。该行将可灵2025年和2026年 的收入预期分别从7.5亿元和12亿元人民币，大幅上调61%至12亿元和19亿元人民币。 这一乐观预期基于可灵在2025年第二季度的强劲表现。数据显示，可灵4月和5月的月度流水均突破1 亿元人民币。对于近期市场担心的可灵现金流水波动，摩根大通认为这是一种"过度担忧"。报告阐述 称，高频数据只捕捉移动端收入，而可灵的大多数收入都来自PC端。 从全球竞争格局来看， ...

Group 1 - Barclays believes Tencent Music has significantly exceeded market expectations and demonstrated strong monetization capabilities across all user music experiences, creating an ecosystem that competitors cannot replicate [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan's report on August 12 states that Kuaishou is the most undervalued AI stock, raising its target price from HKD 71 to HKD 88, indicating a potential upside of 22% [2] - The report emphasizes that Kuaishou's core advertising business is accelerating, and the impact of AI on advertising is also underestimated [2] Group 3 - JPMorgan has significantly raised its revenue forecasts for Kuaishou's AI video generation tool, Keling, for 2025 and 2026 by 61% to RMB 12 billion and RMB 19 billion, respectively, based on strong performance in Q2 2025 [3] - Keling's monthly revenue exceeded RMB 100 million in April and May, and concerns about cash flow fluctuations are considered overblown as most revenue comes from the PC side [3] - The global market for AI video generation is substantial, with potential market size exceeding USD 100 billion, and Keling's pricing is only 20-30% of overseas competitors, indicating significant growth potential [3] Group 4 - JPMorgan views Kuaishou's entry into the food delivery sector as an overreaction, noting that it employs a light-asset model by partnering with established companies like Meituan instead of building its own logistics [4] - This model minimizes upfront investment and allows Kuaishou to generate additional revenue through service commissions [4] Group 5 - JPMorgan reiterates Kuaishou as a top pick in China's digital entertainment sector, citing under-monetized advertising and e-commerce businesses, with projected compound annual growth rates of 13% for advertising and e-commerce commissions from 2026 to 2027 [6] - Kuaishou's user traffic remains stable and is not significantly impacted by the rapid growth of WeChat's video accounts, with a shift towards higher-margin advertising and e-commerce expected to boost profit margins [6] Group 6 - Despite a 73% rebound year-to-date, JPMorgan finds Kuaishou's valuation attractive, with current stock prices corresponding to 14/11 times the expected earnings for 2025/2026, while projecting a 20% compound growth rate for profits from 2026 to 2027 [8] Group 7 - JPMorgan sets a target price of HKD 88 for Kuaishou by the end of 2026, based on a 14 times expected earnings multiple for 2026, reflecting optimism about accelerated growth in core advertising and Keling's strong momentum [10]