16 January 2026 Global Hotels & Leisure OTAs: Will strong demand matter? (Q4 preview) Richard J. Clarke, FCA +44 20 7676 6850 richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Niall Mitchelson +44 20 7676 7144 niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com Lasith Siriwardana +44 20 7550 2191 lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com OTA traffic through Q4 looks to be shaping up well, with app user growth in the double digits for Airbnb, Booking and Expedia, while the latter two have seen a notable inflection in web traffic from Q3, with a very st ...

19 January 2026 | 7:06PM HKT Equity Research Trip.com Group (TCOM) Analysis on potential impact from greater hotel segment competition: profit breakdown and earnings sensitivity; Buy | TCOM | 12m Price Target: $87.00 | Price: $61.77 | Upside: 40.8% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9961.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$676.00 | Price: HK$466.20 | Upside: 45.0% | TCOM's share price has fallen by ~20% over the past three days following its announcement that the State Administration for Market Regulations of the PRC (SAM ...

Core Viewpoint - The Schall Law Firm is investigating claims against Trip.com Group Limited for potential violations of securities laws, particularly focusing on misleading statements and undisclosed information related to an antitrust investigation by Chinese regulators [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation centers on whether Trip.com issued false or misleading statements and failed to disclose critical information to investors [2]. - Trip.com is currently under investigation by China's market regulator for potential antitrust violations, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the investigation, Trip.com's shares fell by 17% on the same day [2].

Group 1 - Trip.com Group, China's leading online travel booking platform, is under investigation by regulators for potential antitrust violations as per the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China [3] - Following the announcement of the investigation, Trip.com stock experienced a decline [3] - The company has stated its intention to cooperate fully with the regulatory authorities during the investigation [3] Group 2 - Trip.com Group's ADR has shown improvements in its Relative Strength Rating, increasing from 76 to 81, indicating better price performance [4][6] - The stock has cleared key technical benchmarks, achieving an RS Rating of over 80, which reflects its market leadership [6][8] - The recent upgrades in the RS Rating suggest a positive trend in the stock's performance, with potential for further growth [4][6]

Core Insights - The e-commerce market is experiencing growth through innovation and technology, with Q3 2025 e-commerce sales increasing by 5.1% compared to Q3 2024, while total retail sales rose by 4.1% [1] - E-commerce now represents approximately 16.4% of total U.S. retail sales, with a trend towards blending online and offline shopping experiences [2] - Companies that can effectively operate in both online and offline channels are positioned to compete successfully in the future [2] Industry Trends - The convenience of online shopping is a primary driver of e-commerce growth, particularly among Gen-Z consumers who are accustomed to high levels of digitization [4] - Social media platforms are influencing shopping behaviors, with digital influencers playing a significant role in shaping consumer preferences [5] - AI is becoming a major enabler of e-commerce, with Adobe estimating a 515-520% increase in AI-driven traffic to retail websites during the 2025 holiday season [9] Company Insights - **Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE)**: The company is experiencing growth in both B2C and B2B segments, with total gross bookings increasing by 12% and B2B bookings rising by 26% [23] [24] - Analysts are optimistic about Expedia, with earnings estimates for 2025 increasing by 6.8% and for 2026 by 9.2% [26] - **Amazon, Inc. (AMZN)**: Amazon maintains a dominant position in the online marketplace and is leveraging its Prime loyalty program to drive sales [28] - Despite recent challenges, including a settlement with the FTC and layoffs, analysts expect Amazon to achieve double-digit revenue and earnings growth in the coming years [30][32]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Online Travel Agents (OTAs) sector, specifically analyzing companies such as Airbnb (ABNB), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Expedia (EXPE), and Tripadvisor (TRIP) [1][2][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments Demand and Traffic Trends - Q4 demand for OTAs is strong, with traffic data indicating volumes are running 1-2% ahead of consensus expectations [1]. - Specific traffic growth estimates for Q4 include: - TRIP: 1% beat - ABNB/BKNG: 1.5% beat - EXPE: 2% beat [2]. - Booking and Expedia have experienced double-digit web traffic growth in November, while Airbnb has not seen similar acceleration [2]. Company-Specific Insights Airbnb (ABNB) - Airbnb's stock has been stagnant due to decelerating top-line growth, but there are signs of potential acceleration with QTD data suggesting a growth increase from 18% to 20% [3]. - New initiatives, including natural language search and partnerships, are expected to drive growth [3]. - Q4 projections indicate 119.1 million nights booked, slightly ahead of consensus [38]. Booking Holdings (BKNG) - Booking is expected to beat its Q4 targets, driven by a growing B2B push and strong web traffic [4]. - The company is focusing on AI opportunities, including a widening Total Addressable Market (TAM) and launching tools for better cross-selling [39]. - Estimated room night growth for Q4 is 7.8%, ahead of guidance [19]. Expedia (EXPE) - Expedia has turned a corner operationally, with strong Q4 traffic trends and expected room night growth of 9.5% [49]. - Despite this, revenue growth remains slower than Booking, raising concerns about its higher valuation multiple [5]. Tripadvisor (TRIP) - Tripadvisor's traffic is mixed, with Viator showing growth while TheFork has slowed [60]. - Total revenue expectations for Q4 are slightly ahead of consensus, driven by Viator's performance [61]. Additional Important Insights - The ongoing debate about AI's impact on the OTA sector remains a key risk, with concerns about AI agents potentially disrupting pricing and data access [1]. - The World Cup is anticipated to provide a boost to Airbnb's volumes, with a potential $3.6 billion impact [51]. - Booking's CFO highlighted a $170 million investment program aimed at growth initiatives, indicating a proactive approach to market challenges [39]. Investment Ratings - Ratings for the companies are as follows: - Airbnb: Outperform - Tripadvisor: Outperform - Booking: Market-Perform - Expedia: Market-Perform [7]. Conclusion - The OTA sector shows promising demand trends heading into Q4, with individual companies positioned differently based on their growth strategies and market dynamics. The potential impact of AI and macroeconomic factors will be critical to monitor in the coming quarters.

Trip.com Group Ltd - Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) - **Market Focus**: Asia Pacific, excluding China and India Key Points Industry and Market Position - Trip.com aims to become the number one player in Asia (excluding China and India) in terms of market share, which is considered a challenging yet achievable target [2] - The company is currently the market leader in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Thailand, and is rapidly gaining market share in Korea and Japan [2] - The APAC travel market is expected to grow, with online penetration increasing, providing a favorable environment for Trip.com [2] Financial Performance and Projections - Trip.com anticipates that by 2030, international and outbound business will contribute to 50% of its revenue [2] - Revenue growth projections indicate a slowdown from over 55% in 2025 to around 25% by 2030 [2] - The company expects year-over-year margin improvements for both domestic and overseas operations, although mixed revenue sources may introduce uncertainty [4] Strategic Initiatives - Trip.com has a structured approach to entering new markets, focusing first on product and localization, followed by performance-based marketing, and then brand marketing once a market share of 2-5% is achieved [3] - The company prioritizes branding and service quality over pricing, believing its pricing is competitive [2] - A significant marketing push has been noted, which has positively impacted overseas expansion efforts [1] Competitive Landscape - Concerns regarding competition from Alibaba's Fliggy are downplayed, with Trip.com’s strong supply chain control seen as a competitive advantage [5] - The company is positioned to achieve profitability levels similar to global peers, potentially exceeding them if the revenue mix favors accommodation [3] Financial Metrics - Current stock price (as of November 25, 2025): US$70.30 - Price target set at US$86.00, indicating a potential upside of 22% [7] - Projected revenue growth from Rmb 53,294 million in FY25 to Rmb 77,641 million in FY27, with a net profit forecast of Rmb 32,156 million in FY25 [31] Risk Factors - Risks include rising competition in the domestic market, uncertainties related to the pandemic, and macroeconomic slowdowns that could affect travel demand [50] - The company is also exposed to foreign exchange headwinds, which could impact profitability [51] Investment Thesis - Trip.com is viewed as uniquely positioned to benefit from multiple growth engines, including domestic travel, outbound travel, and international expansion [39] - The company has announced a US$5 billion share repurchase program, representing over 10% of its market cap at the time of announcement, which is seen as a positive signal for investors [39] Conclusion - Trip.com Group Ltd is strategically positioned for growth in the APAC travel market, with a focus on enhancing its market share and profitability through targeted marketing and operational efficiencies. The company’s financial outlook remains positive, despite potential risks from competition and macroeconomic factors.

Core Insights - Expedia Group Inc. shares surged 18% in intra-day trading following strong third-quarter results that exceeded expectations and raised the full-year outlook due to robust travel demand [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for Q3 2025 were reported at $7.57, surpassing analyst forecasts of $6.98 [1] - Revenue for the quarter reached $4.41 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $4.28 billion and reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [1] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 16% to $1.45 billion, with margins expanding by 208 basis points [2] Booking Metrics - Booked room nights rose by 11% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in the U.S. in three years [2] - Total gross bookings increased by 12%, driven by a 26% rise in business-to-business (B2B) bookings and a 7% increase in consumer (B2C) bookings [2] Future Outlook - Following the strong results, the company raised its full-year 2025 forecast, now expecting gross bookings growth of 7%, up from a previous estimate of 3-5% [3] - Revenue growth expectations were also increased to 6-7%, compared to the prior outlook of 3-5% [3] - The adjusted EBITDA margin expansion guidance was raised to 2% from 1% [3] - For Q4, Expedia projected gross bookings and revenue growth of 6-8% [3]

Core Insights - Expedia's shares increased by 15.8% in premarket trading following a positive revenue and margin growth forecast for 2025, driven by strong bookings from business clients [1] Group 1 - The company anticipates higher revenue for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for its financial performance [1] - The expected growth in margins suggests improved profitability alongside revenue increases [1] - Strong bookings from business clients are a key factor contributing to the optimistic forecast [1]

Core Viewpoint - Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) has underperformed the market recently, trading at $4,940 per share with a 4.9% loss over the past six months, compared to the S&P 500's 19.5% gain [1][9] Group 1: Company Performance - Booking has demonstrated strong long-term revenue growth, achieving a compounded annual growth rate of 17.6% over the last three years, surpassing the average growth of consumer internet companies [3] - The company has an excellent free cash flow margin, averaging 34.3% over the last two years, indicating strong cash profitability and the ability to reinvest and return capital to investors [5][4] Group 2: Customer Metrics - Average revenue per booking (ARPB) growth has been modest at 3.8% over the last two years, which raises concerns about the company's ability to monetize effectively [6][7] - The increase in room nights booked is a more relevant metric for assessing long-term business potential, and the company will need to monitor ARPB growth closely [7] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Despite recent underperformance, Booking's stock trades at a forward EV/EBITDA of 14.8, suggesting potential value for investors [9]