Malaysia Aviation Group, the operator of national carrier Malaysia Airlines, on Monday announced a collaboration with Adobe, Google, Skyscanner and Visa for its online travel booking services. ...

Flash | 16 Sep 2025 11:43:21 ET │ 12 pages China OTAs Gov't Measures to Boost Travel Consumption and Upcoming Holiday Demand Likely Decent CITI'S TAKE The Ministry of Commerce and other departments jointly issued Several Policies on Expanding Service Consumption. In the document, we see attracting more inbound visitors and optimizing students' holiday arrangements directly related to travel industry, especially for optimizing holiday arrangement which includes exploring establishment of spring and autumn va ...

Group 1 - Trip.com Group Limited Sponsored ADR (TCOM) has reached an important support level and is considered a good stock pick from a technical perspective [1] - TCOM recently experienced a "golden cross," where its 50-day simple moving average broke above its 200-day simple moving average, indicating a potential bullish breakout [1][2] - The stock has seen a price increase of 22% over the past four weeks, and it currently holds a 2 (Buy) rating on the Zacks Rank, suggesting a potential breakout [4] Group 2 - A golden cross consists of three stages: a downtrend that bottoms out, a crossover of the shorter moving average above the longer moving average, and continued upward momentum [3] - The positive earnings outlook for TCOM further supports the bullish case, with three earnings revisions higher and no downward revisions in the past two months [4] - Investors are encouraged to consider adding TCOM to their watchlist due to the significant technical indicator and positive earnings estimate movement [6]

Core Insights - Expedia Group (EXPE) reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.24 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.42% and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.8% [1] - Revenues reached $3.79 billion, a 6.4% year-over-year rise, also surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.94% [1] - B2B revenues grew by 15% year over year to $1.21 billion, while B2C revenues increased by 2% to $2.48 billion [1] Gross Bookings - Total gross bookings amounted to $30.4 billion, marking a 5% year-over-year increase [2] - B2C gross bookings rose by 1%, while B2B gross bookings surged by 17%, achieving the 16th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2] - Lodging gross bookings increased by 6% year over year to $22.07 billion, with hotel bookings climbing by 8% [2] Operating Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $908 million, up 15.5% year over year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24%, expanding by 190 basis points [3] - Direct sales and marketing expenses were $1.92 billion, representing 50.7% of revenues, an increase of 7.1% year over year [3] - Overhead expenses totaled $637 million, accounting for 16.8% of revenues, up 5.1% year over year [3] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBIT increased by 22.7% year over year to $583 million, with an adjusted EBIT margin improving by 200 basis points to 15.4% [4] Balance Sheet Overview - As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments were $6.7 billion, up from $6.1 billion as of March 31, 2025 [5] - Long-term debt stood at $4.466 billion, slightly up from $4.465 billion as of March 31, 2025 [5] - The gross leverage ratio was maintained at 2x, aligning with the target to uphold an investment-grade rating [5] Cash Flow - Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.12 billion for the quarter, with free cash flow amounting to $921 million [6] Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, EXPE expects gross bookings growth in the range of 5-7% and revenue growth between 4-6% [7] - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA margins to increase by 50-100 basis points year over year for Q3 [9] - For the full year 2025, EXPE projects gross bookings and revenue growth in the 3-5% range, with adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of more than 100 basis points year over year [9]

Core Insights - Expedia Group (EXPE) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 7, with expected revenues of $3.71 billion, reflecting a 4.39% increase year-over-year, and earnings estimated at $4.14 per share, indicating a 17.95% rise from the previous year [1][3]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPE's second-quarter 2025 revenues is $3.71 billion, a 4.39% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus for earnings is $4.14 per share, which is a $0.01 increase over the past 30 days and represents a 17.95% increase year-over-year [1]. Recent Performance Trends - EXPE has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.48% [2]. - The company anticipates gross bookings growth of 2-4% and revenue growth of 3-5%, with a one-point benefit from the Easter shift and a two-point foreign exchange headwind [3][9]. Market Dynamics - The performance in the second quarter is expected to be influenced by ongoing challenges in the U.S. market, resilience in international markets, and cost optimization efforts [3]. - Domestic travel softness and reduced inbound flows may have impacted B2C performance due to EXPE's significant U.S. market exposure [4]. Segment Performance - The B2B segment is expected to be a key growth driver, likely maintaining double-digit momentum supported by expanded partnerships and strength in the APAC region [5]. - Advertising revenues are projected to show robust growth, aided by increased partner participation and new advertising solutions, with AI-driven tools enhancing platform adoption [6]. Operational Efficiency - Management expects adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 75-100 basis points year-over-year, driven by operational efficiency initiatives and cost discipline measures, including restructuring actions affecting approximately 4% of employees [7].

Core Insights - Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) experienced a significant Power Inflow, indicating potential upward movement in its stock price [2][3] - The Power Inflow occurred at a price of $5296.03, suggesting a bullish signal for traders [3][7] - Following the Power Inflow, the stock reached a high price of $5351.80 and closed at $5341.91, resulting in returns of 1.1% and 0.87% respectively [7] Order Flow Analytics - Order flow analytics involves analyzing the volume rate of buy and sell orders to gain insights into market conditions [4] - This analysis helps traders identify trading opportunities and make informed decisions based on institutional activity [6] - The Power Inflow is interpreted as a bullish signal by active traders, indicating a possible uptrend [4][5] Market Behavior - The Power Inflow typically occurs within the first two hours of market open, influencing the stock's overall direction for the day [5] - Traders monitor for sustained momentum in the stock price following the Power Inflow to capitalize on expected upward movement [3][5] - Incorporating order flow analytics into trading strategies can enhance trading performance and decision-making [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM), with a target price of US$70.00, indicating a potential upside of 10.4% from the current price of US$63.38 [2][16]. Core Insights - Trip.com Group reported a total revenue of RMB13.9 billion for 1Q25, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth, which aligns with forecasts and consensus estimates. The non-GAAP operating income was RMB4.0 billion, exceeding expectations by 7% due to optimized sales and marketing expenditures [1]. - The company is on track with its overseas expansion strategy, which is expected to enhance long-term value despite potential short-term earnings pressure from increased investments [1]. - The report anticipates resilient revenue growth in 2Q25, projecting a total revenue of RMB14.6 billion, representing a 15% year-over-year increase [7]. Financial Performance - For FY25E, total revenue is projected at RMB61.5 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 15.2%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB17.8 billion, reflecting a slight decline of 1.3% compared to FY24A [8][10]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin for 1Q25 was reported at 29.2%, which is 1.7 percentage points better than consensus estimates, driven by effective cost management [7][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin for 1Q25 was 80.3%, slightly below consensus expectations, indicating a need for continued focus on cost efficiency as revenue contributions from Trip.com increase [7][9]. Market Position and Growth - Trip.com’s domestic business showed strong booking volume growth, with hotel bookings increasing by approximately 10-15% year-over-year in 2Q25, while outbound bookings surpassed 120% of 2019 levels in 1Q25 [7]. - The international segment accounted for 13% of total revenue in 1Q25, with over 50% year-over-year growth, suggesting a robust recovery and expansion in overseas markets [7]. - The company is expected to maintain its investment strategy to support international growth, particularly in emerging markets like Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand, while also investing in new markets such as the Middle East and Europe [7].

Core Insights - Expedia reported $2.99 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 3.4%, with an EPS of $0.40 compared to $0.21 a year ago [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.03 billion, resulting in a surprise of -1.27%, while the EPS also missed the consensus estimate of $0.42 by -4.76% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Gross bookings totaled $31.45 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $31.85 billion [4] - Stayed room nights were 108, exceeding the average estimate of 106, with a growth rate of 6%, lower than the 8.1% average estimate [4] - Merchant gross bookings were $18.21 billion, compared to the estimated $18.83 billion [4] - International revenue was $1.16 billion, below the average estimate of $1.22 billion, but showed a year-over-year increase of 5.6% [4] - U.S. revenue reached $1.83 billion, slightly below the estimated $1.85 billion, reflecting a 2.1% year-over-year increase [4] - B2C revenue was $1.96 billion, below the average estimate of $2.04 billion, while B2B revenue was $947 million, exceeding the estimate of $924.59 million, marking a 13.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Revenue from lodging was $2.29 billion, below the estimate of $2.36 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7% [4] - Revenue from Trivago was $85 million, surpassing the estimate of $74.76 million, with a significant year-over-year increase of 21.4% [4] - Air revenue was $107 million, below the estimated $114.41 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 7% [4] - Other revenue was $333 million, below the estimate of $352.60 million, with a slight year-over-year increase of 0.6% [4] Stock Performance - Expedia shares returned +3% over the past month, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11.3% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Expedia (EXPE) will report quarterly earnings of $0.42 per share, reflecting a 100% year-over-year increase, with revenues expected to reach $3.03 billion, a 4.8% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 4.9% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation of initial estimates by analysts [2]. - Prior to earnings releases, revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts predict 'Revenue- B2B' will reach $924.59 million, marking an 11% increase year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenue by Service Type- Lodging' is expected to be $2.36 billion, reflecting a 6.1% year-over-year change [5]. - 'Revenue- Trivago' is projected at $74.76 million, indicating a 6.8% increase from the prior year [5]. - 'Revenue by Service Type- Air' is estimated at $114.41 million, suggesting a slight decline of 0.5% year-over-year [6]. - 'Revenue- Advertising, Media and other' is expected to reach $277.37 million, a 12.3% increase from the previous year [6]. - 'Revenue- International' is projected at $1.22 billion, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-over-year [7]. - 'Revenue- United States' is estimated at $1.85 billion, indicating a 3.3% year-over-year change [7]. Gross Bookings - Analysts forecast 'Gross bookings - Total' to reach $31.85 billion, compared to $30.16 billion from the previous year [7]. - 'Gross bookings - Merchant' is expected to be $18.83 billion, up from $16.86 billion year-over-year [8]. - 'Gross bookings - Agency' is projected at $13.81 billion, compared to $13.30 billion from the prior year [9]. Key Metrics - The consensus estimate for 'Stayed room nights/ Booked room nights' stands at 106, up from 101 year-over-year [8]. - 'Stayed Room Night /Booked room nights Growth' is expected to be 8.1%, compared to 7% in the same quarter last year [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Expedia have returned +14.1%, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% [9].

Group 1 - Trip.com (NASDAQ: TCOM) reported a 173% increase in inbound tourism orders for the upcoming Labor Day holiday compared to the previous year, indicating a positive trend for the company [1] Group 2 - Astrada Advisors specializes in investment research across technology, media, internet, and consumer sectors in North America and Asia, focusing on identifying high-potential investments and navigating complex industries [1] - The research provided by Astrada Advisors integrates fundamental analysis with data-driven insights, offering a comprehensive view of industry dynamics and key trends [1]