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Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O) - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) - **Market Cap**: US$36,956 million - **Current Stock Price**: US$53.66 - **Price Target**: US$75.00, revised from US$87.00 Key Points Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: TCOM reported strong revenue growth with a 4Q25 revenue beat and guidance for 1Q26 revenue growth of 12-17% [2][5] - **Booking Trends**: CNY domestic hotel bookings are growing at double-digit rates, with outbound travel also posting double-digit growth. QTD bookings are up 60% [2][3] - **Segment Performance**: - Hotel and packaged tours are growing in the high teens YoY - Corporate travel is expanding with a focus on customer base expansion - Transportation growth is in the 8-13% range [2] Operational Insights - **International Business**: International business accounted for ~40% of total revenue in 2025, up from 35% in 2024, indicating a strong trajectory towards a mid-term target of 50% [3] - **AI Development**: Management views AI as a catalyst for OTA businesses, emphasizing that TCOM's proprietary data and service capabilities mitigate potential threats from AI booking routing [4] Regulatory Environment - **Regulatory Uncertainty**: No updates on the regulatory front, but management expects business operations to remain intact despite ongoing investigations [5] - **WACC Increase**: The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumption was increased from 10.5% to 11.2% due to higher equity risk premiums related to regulatory concerns [5][11] Earnings Estimates - **EPS Adjustments**: 2026/27 EPS estimates were cut by 3-4% due to higher operating expenses, while revenue forecasts were raised by 1% [5][10] - **Operating Profit Margin**: Guidance for operating profit margin (OPM) is set at 28% for 1Q26, slightly lower due to a mix shift towards trip.com [2] Market Positioning - **Growth Engines**: TCOM is positioned to benefit from multiple growth engines, including domestic travel, outbound travel, and international expansion [22] - **Share Repurchase Program**: A US$5 billion share repurchase program was announced, representing over 10% of the market cap at the time of announcement [22] Risks and Considerations - **Market Competition**: Rising competition from other domestic players like Tongcheng Travel and Meituan poses a risk to market share [34] - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Potential macroeconomic slowdown and FX headwinds could impact travel demand [34] Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratios**: The new price target implies a P/E of 18x for 2026 and 16x for 2027 [5][28] - **DCF Valuation**: Key assumptions include a WACC of 11.2% and terminal growth of 3% [16] Conclusion - TCOM is navigating a complex regulatory environment while capitalizing on strong travel demand and international expansion. The company remains focused on leveraging AI technology and enhancing operational efficiencies to maintain its competitive edge in the OTA market.

27 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Trip.com (TCOM US) Trip.com (TCOM US) - Results Results beat; travel demand remains resilient Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (26 Feb) 4Q25 results: total revenue was RMB15.4bn, up 20.8% YoY, 4% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates driven by an all-round beat across segments especially in corporate travel, package tour, and Others. Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB3.2bn, 2% better than consensus, thanks to the beat in r ...

Quick Read Trip.com (TCOM) reported Q4 revenue of $2.2B up 21% year-over-year. Net income nearly doubled from prior year. Trip.com’s international platform bookings grew 60% for full year 2025 versus 21% overall revenue growth. Trip.com faces a SAMR anti-monopoly investigation launched in January 2026 and two co-founder board departures. The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE. Trip.com Group (NASDAQ: TCOM) closed out 2025 on a strong note, report ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, Trip.com Group reported net revenue of RMB 15.4 billion, a 21% increase year-over-year, driven by robust travel demand during the winter holiday [24] - For the full year 2025, gross bookings reached RMB 1.1 trillion, with net revenue totaling RMB 62.4 billion, reflecting a 17% year-over-year increase [24][9] - Income from operations for 2025 was RMB 15.8 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, while net income attributable to Trip.com Group Limited was RMB 13.4 billion [24][9] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was RMB 3.4 billion, compared to RMB 3.0 billion in the same period last year, with full-year adjusted EBITDA at RMB 18.9 billion, an 11% growth year-over-year [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Accommodation reservation revenue for Q4 was RMB 6.3 billion, a 21% increase year-over-year, while full-year revenue was RMB 26.1 billion, also a 21% increase [25][26] - Transportation ticketing revenue for Q4 was RMB 5.4 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, with full-year revenue at RMB 22.5 billion, an 11% increase [26] - Package tour revenue for Q4 was RMB 1.1 billion, a 21% increase year-over-year, and full-year revenue was RMB 4.7 billion, an 8% increase [26] - Corporate travel revenue for Q4 was RMB 808 million, a 15% increase year-over-year, with full-year revenue at RMB 2.8 billion, a 13% increase [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - APAC remained the largest source of inbound travelers, with demand from Western markets expanding, reflecting rising international interest in China as a travel destination [10] - The international OTA platform saw gross bookings increase by approximately 60% year-over-year, with international business contributing about 40% of total revenue in 2025, up from around 35% in 2024 [13][53] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on three key investment areas: inbound tourism, social responsibility initiatives, and AI innovation, viewing inbound travel as a significant growth driver [4][6] - A $100 million tourism innovation fund was launched to support commercial innovation across the travel ecosystem, alongside initiatives to enhance service quality and sustainability [6][19] - The company aims to create a seamless travel experience by integrating technology and enhancing service capabilities, particularly for inbound travelers [5][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth of inbound tourism, projecting significant growth potential as it currently accounts for only about 0.5% of China's GDP [45] - The company remains committed to fostering a transparent and sustainable travel ecosystem while focusing on long-term value creation for shareholders [23][35] Other Important Information - The company is cooperating with the State Administration for Market Regulation regarding a regulatory investigation, emphasizing its commitment to compliance and transparency [23] - In 2025, the company invested approximately RMB 2.9 billion to enhance the overall travel experience, including customer protections and service enhancements [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on the recent SAMR investigation - The company is actively cooperating with the State Administration for Market Regulation and remains committed to transparency and sustainable practices [32][34] Question: Impact of AI disintermediation on OTA business model - Management views AI advancements as a catalyst for their strategy, emphasizing the importance of their transactional and service layers in the travel industry [37][39] Question: Future growth trajectory for inbound tourism - Management believes inbound tourism in China is at the start of a significant growth cycle, with potential for 5-10 times growth compared to current levels [45][46] Question: Booking trends during Chinese New Year - The extended holiday stimulated strong travel demand, with double-digit growth in domestic hotel and outbound business [50][52] Question: Competition in the domestic travel market - Management acknowledges dynamic competition but emphasizes their focus on high service levels, comprehensive product offerings, and global coverage as competitive advantages [55][59] Question: Operational highlights and outlook for 2026 - The international OTA platform achieved around 60% year-over-year growth, with a focus on expanding presence in APAC and improving profitability [64][66] Question: Update on shareholder return program - The company fully utilized its share repurchase quota in 2025 and remains committed to delivering long-term shareholder value [73][74]

Core Insights - Expedia reported $3.55 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, marking an 11.4% year-over-year increase and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.22% [1] - The company's EPS for the same period was $3.78, up from $2.39 a year ago, representing a surprise of 9.29% over the consensus estimate [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Gross bookings totaled $27 billion, surpassing the estimated $26.07 billion [4] - Booked room nights were 94, exceeding the average estimate of 92 [4] - Merchant gross bookings reached $16.49 billion, compared to the $15.39 billion estimate [4] - Agency gross bookings were $10.52 billion, slightly below the estimated $10.86 billion [4] - Revenue from non-U.S. points of sale was $1.51 billion, above the $1.48 billion estimate, reflecting a 17.3% year-over-year increase [4] - U.S. points of sale revenue was $2.04 billion, exceeding the $1.98 billion estimate, with a 7.4% year-over-year change [4] - B2B revenue was $1.29 billion, surpassing the $1.2 billion estimate, showing a 24.2% year-over-year increase [4] - B2C revenue reached $2.16 billion, slightly above the $2.12 billion estimate, with a 3.9% year-over-year change [4] - Revenue from Expedia Group (excluding Trivago) was $3.45 billion, exceeding the $3.35 billion estimate, reflecting a 10.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Trivago revenue was $97 million, surpassing the $81.97 million estimate, with a 47% year-over-year increase [4] - Revenue by service type for lodging was $2.82 billion, exceeding the $2.7 billion estimate, with a 10.9% year-over-year increase [4] - Revenue from other services was $329 million, below the $403.98 million estimate, reflecting an 8.9% year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - Expedia's shares have returned -19.7% over the past month, compared to the S&P 500 composite's -0.3% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for outperformance in the near term [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Online Travel Agency (OTA) industry, specifically focusing on companies like Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) and Tongcheng Travel Holdings (Tongcheng) [2][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Impact of AI on OTAs**: - There are rising concerns among investors regarding the potential threats posed by AI to OTAs. However, it is believed that Agentic AI will not materially impact OTAs in the short to medium term due to: 1. Strong bargaining power of leading OTAs, allowing them to offer better pricing, especially in hotel and experience travel [2][4]. 2. The complexity of travel booking decisions, which involve multiple factors beyond simple prompts that AI can capture [2][4]. - **Integration with AI Applications**: - OTAs may leverage their strengths in pricing, product inventories, fulfillment systems, and customer service to collaborate with large language model (LLM) applications. This could help capture traffic that may be diverted to those apps [2][4]. - Current collaborations include Doubao sourcing flight information from TCOM and Yuanbao listing Tongcheng as a travel information source [4]. - **User Preferences**: - Users typically prefer to compare prices across different platforms, making a single OTA platform integration into an LLM app less attractive. An LLM app that integrates multiple leading OTA platforms could be more appealing [4]. Financial Valuation - **Tongcheng Travel Holdings**: - The target price is set at HK$28, based on a 16x non-IFRS 2026E EPS, reflecting a discount to the historical average of 21x due to a slower revenue growth profile [6]. - **Trip.com Group Ltd**: - The target price is set at US$82, with the core business valued at approximately US$76 per share based on a 20x P/E for 2026E, applying a 20% premium to the average P/E of other vertical leaders [8]. Risks Identified - **For Tongcheng**: - Key risks include: 1. Greater-than-expected competition from OTA peers or other travel booking channels. 2. Heavy reliance on hotel supply from Trip.com. 3. Dependence on Tencent's platforms. 4. Deteriorating macroeconomic conditions [7]. - **For Trip.com**: - Risks include: 1. Further softening of the China macro environment affecting travel demand. 2. Delayed recovery in travel demand. 3. Worsening spending and margins. 4. Intensified domestic competition. 5. Potential new outbreaks of Covid-19 or other epidemics [9]. Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the importance of considering various factors in investment decisions, including potential conflicts of interest due to the firm's business relationships with the companies discussed [5][15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the OTA industry, financial valuations, and associated risks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Online Travel Agents (OTAs) sector, specifically Airbnb, Booking.com (BKNG), and Expedia (EXPE) as they prepare for Q4 results and 2026 guidance [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Traffic Growth**: OTA traffic is showing strong growth, with app user growth in double digits for Airbnb, Booking, and Expedia. December has seen a notable increase in web traffic for both Booking and Expedia, reversing previous declines [1][2]. - **Q4 Expectations**: Anticipated night growth for all three companies is high single digits (HSD), with expectations of over 2% top-line and over 3% EBITDA line beats. Q4 is typically a lower booking/revenue quarter [1][2]. - **AI Integration**: AI is expected to be a significant theme in 2026, transitioning from experimentation to implementation. Both Booking and Airbnb are anticipated to provide more details on their AI strategies during Q4 [3][4]. - **Investment in AI**: There are concerns regarding the operational expenditure (OPEX) required to hire AI talent, but no significant surprises are expected in terms of capital expenditure (CAPEX) [3][4]. - **Event-Driven Growth**: The upcoming FIFA World Cup and other major events in the US are expected to provide a boost to Airbnb's growth, with a projected ~50 basis points (bps) tailwind to nights growth [4][18]. Financial Projections - **Airbnb**: Expected to lead in topline and bottom line growth in 2026, with a projected 120 million room nights in Q4, reflecting an 8.8% year-over-year increase [1][26]. - **Booking.com**: Anticipated to have the highest top-line beats, with room night growth of 8.7% in Q4, which is 2.5% above consensus [2][36]. - **Expedia**: Expected to see the largest EBITDA beat, driven by strong B2B growth, with room night growth estimated at 9.4%, ahead of guidance [2][54]. Additional Important Insights - **Partnerships and Revenue Models**: There is an expectation for further details on partnerships with AI platforms and the different revenue models that may emerge, such as CPC and CPA [3][18]. - **Market Ratings**: Tripadvisor and Airbnb are rated as Outperform, while Booking and Expedia are rated as Market-Perform [7][9]. - **Traffic Trends**: Both Booking and Expedia have shown improvements in web traffic, with Booking experiencing a significant acceleration from Q3 to Q4 [36][54]. - **Tripadvisor's Challenges**: Tripadvisor is facing headwinds with declining core traffic, but revenue estimates are slightly ahead of consensus due to anticipated declines being largely expected [68][69]. Conclusion - The OTAs are positioned for a strong Q4, with significant growth expected in 2026 driven by AI integration and major events. Airbnb is particularly well-positioned for growth, while Booking and Expedia also show promising trends. The focus on AI and partnerships will be critical for maintaining competitiveness in the evolving travel distribution landscape [1][3][4][18].

Trip.com Group (TCOM) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group (TCOM) - **Market Cap**: $39.3 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $32.9 billion - **Current Share Price**: $61.77 - **12-Month Price Target**: $87.00 (Upside: 40.8%) [1] Key Industry Insights - **Investigation Impact**: TCOM's share price dropped approximately 20% following the announcement of an investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) of the PRC under the Anti-Monopoly Law. Historical cases (e.g., Alibaba, Meituan) were referenced to assess potential impacts on stock performance [1][2]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The investigation may lead TCOM to adopt a more restrained competitive stance, particularly in the hospitality segment, which is more fragmented compared to the airline and railway sectors dominated by state-owned companies [2][28]. - **Booking Volume vs. Take Rate**: The anticipated impact of increased competition is expected to affect booking volumes more than take rates. TCOM and Tongcheng have maintained stable hotel take rates despite competitive pressures [2][32]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY2025E: Rmb 62,056.3 million - FY2026E: Rmb 69,843.2 million - FY2027E: Rmb 77,269.2 million [6][19] - **Earnings Adjustments**: Core earnings estimates for FY26-27 were revised down by 5% to 8%, with a slower hotel GMV CAGR projected at 6% (previously 13%) [19]. - **EBIT Margin**: Expected to narrow to 28.9% in FY26E from 30.4% in FY24E [19]. Key Financial Metrics - **EBITDA**: - FY2025E: Rmb 18,927.3 million - FY2026E: Rmb 21,113.1 million - FY2027E: Rmb 23,062.7 million [6][19] - **EPS**: - FY2025E: Rmb 46.30 - FY2026E: Rmb 30.04 - FY2027E: Rmb 32.16 [6][19] Risks and Considerations - **AI Adoption**: TCOM faces potential risks from AI adoption compared to peers, as competitors like Alibaba have integrated AI solutions to enhance customer experiences [21]. - **Market Structure**: The hospitality segment's fragmented nature may lead to increased competition and potential loss of exclusivity agreements, impacting TCOM's hotel business [28][29]. - **Take Rate Sensitivity**: A 10% reduction in hotel GMV could lower FY26E earnings by 5%, while a 1% change in hotel take rate could impact earnings by 8% [19]. Revenue Breakdown - **Domestic Revenue**: Approximately Rmb 40 billion or 63% of total revenue in FY2025E, with significant contributions from domestic hotels (29%) and transportation (15%) [26]. - **EBIT Contribution**: Majority of EBIT derived from domestic and outbound travel businesses, with 41% from domestic hotels [26]. Conclusion - Despite the recent volatility due to regulatory scrutiny, TCOM is positioned to benefit from the long-term growth of Chinese travel demand. The current share price correction may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Schall Law Firm is investigating claims against Trip.com Group Limited for potential violations of securities laws, particularly focusing on misleading statements and undisclosed information related to an antitrust investigation by Chinese regulators [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation centers on whether Trip.com issued false or misleading statements and failed to disclose critical information to investors [2]. - Trip.com is currently under investigation by China's market regulator for potential antitrust violations, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the investigation, Trip.com's shares fell by 17% on the same day [2].